The Earth System Analyzer: Using all of the Data to Improve NOAA’s Mission Capabilities Alexander E. MacDonald NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory
Transcript
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The Earth System Analyzer: Using all of the Data to Improve
NOAAs Mission Capabilities Alexander E. MacDonald NOAA Earth System
Research Laboratory
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Summary 1.Earth System Analyzer: What is it? 2.How does this
system improve NOAAs capabilities? 3.The 21 st century toolkit that
makes it possible. 4. Earth System Analyzer Pilot Projects: CO2 and
CH4
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Earth System Analyzer A framework to continuously analyze the
entire Earth system. Physical Earth: 100 vertical levels, 10 km
resolution, every hour, 100 variables. Chemical Earth: 100 vertical
levels, 10 km resolution, every hour, 100 variables. Biological
Earth: 10 km resolution, twice daily, 10,000 variables. Data
Volume: 10 km and 100 vertical levels = 130 GB per day. 1 km and
1000 vertical levels = 140 TB per day.
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NOAA Earth System Analyzer Objectives Improved initial state
based weather prediction. Improved knowledge of Earth system
climate forcing and feedback to constrain climate prediction.
Determine the knowledge needed to be an honest broker for
geo-engineering. Develop an all NOAA information system.
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NOAA Earth System Analyzer Components 1. Multiple dynamics and
physics assimilation for the major system components (air, ocean,
land surface et.). 2. Continuous real time analysis. 3. Modeling
frameworks.
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Satellite and in situ observations are like gasoline and oil
for an engine: YOU ALWAYS NEED BOTH.
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Better use of data is the key to both weather and climate: Use
every instrument on every available satellite. Use all of the in
situ data. Use advanced assimilation for all fields.
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Midnight visible image from Soumi NPP: Global convective
initialization requires software to diagnose thunderstorms from
visible images. Physical: Diagnose thunderstorms from visible
imagery.
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JPSS: Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder
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NOAA Earth System Analyzer Key Innovations Weather: Use of all
of the data with forward models, and a search for the best
chemical, aerosol and biological tracers. Climate: Use years of
full reanalysis. Constrain every variable, except the target. Get
full statistical residual information.
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Ben Santer: "The recent slow-down in observed surface and
tropospheric warming is a fascinating detective story," Santer
said. "There is not a single culprit, as some scientists have
claimed. Multiple factors are implicated. One is the temporary
cooling effect of internal climate noise. Other factors are the
external cooling influences of 21st century volcanic activity, an
unusually low and long minimum in the last solar cycle, and an
uptick in Chinese emissions of sulfur dioxide. "The real scientific
challenge is to obtain hard quantitative estimates of the
contributions of each of these factors to the slow-down.
Integrated, holistic observation based Earth system analysis : the
only way to sort out the component contributions.
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Chemical: There are about a hundred atmospheric constituents
that need to be tracked. Black carbon (blue) and sulfates
(green).
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Sulfur Dioxide from the GOES R Advance Baseline Imager
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JPSS: Cross-Track Infrared Sounder The 1315 channels of CRIS
will allow diagnosis of chemical constituents as well as
temperature and moisture soundings.
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Biology: The most complex part of the Earth System.
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Advanced geophysical assimilation.
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Nonhydrostatic Icosahderal Model Time tendencyFlux termsForcing
TermsSource Terms
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Design of ESRL NIM: Speeds up chemical tracer calculations by
factor of 10. Side 4 Side 6
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Research Groups Global Long Term Observing Network Radiation
Group GMD Core Aerosol Group Ozone Group Halocarbons Carbon Cycle
Group GMD Network THDSUMSPOSMOMLOBRW Satellite Cal/Val Observations
Cal & QC Observations Cal & QC Observations Cal & QC
Observations Comparison & QC Observations Comparison & QC
Observations Cal & QC Observations Comparison & QC
Observations Comparison & QC Observations Cal & QC
Observations Cal & QC WMO Networks Global Observing
Networks
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Current Network Carbon Weather Satellites TCCON Earth Networks
CarbonTracker
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A Vision for integrating NOAAs data and short range
predictions: Create an Earth System Analyzer: A framework to
implement advanced physical, chemical and biological analysis of
the entire ocean and atmosphere. Use this analysis to make short
range predictions of the full Earth system. Use years of Earth
System Analyzer data to constrain climate forcing agents
(chemistry, aerosols, land-use change, etc.) Develop a NOAA-wide
information system that encompasses all relevant ocean and
atmosphere data.
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NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Boulder, Colorado
[email protected]