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The Economic Outlook The Economic Outlook for U.S. Cotton 2004for U.S. Cotton 2004
Prepared by Economic ServicesPrepared by Economic ServicesGary AdamsGary Adams Steve Slinsky Steve Slinsky
Shawn Boyd Shawn Boyd Michelle Huffman Michelle Huffman
Macroeconomic Macroeconomic EnvironmentEnvironment
Percent
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
Actual Projected
Percent
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
Actual Projected
Change in U.S. Real GDPChange in U.S. Real GDP
Percent
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
Percent
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
Civilian Unemployment RateCivilian Unemployment Rate
Millions
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03
Millions
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03
Manufacturing EmploymentManufacturing Employment
115
120
125
130
135
140
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
Consumer Price Index for Consumer Price Index for ApparelApparel
$ Billion
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
CBO Aug '03 CBO Jan '04
$ Billion
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
CBO Aug '03 CBO Jan '04
U.S. Federal Budget Surplus U.S. Federal Budget Surplus as Projected byas Projected by CBOCBO
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
1.20
Jan
-97
Jul
Jan
-98
Jul
Jan
-99
Jul
Jan
-00
Jul
Jan
-01
Jul
Jan
-02
Jul
Jan
-03
Jul
Jan
-04
EuroEuro(Currency per U.S. Dollar)(Currency per U.S. Dollar)
90
100
110
120
130
140
Jan
-97
Jul
Jan
-98
Jul
Jan
-99
Jul
Jan
-00
Jul
Jan
-01
Jul
Jan
-02
Jul
Jan
-03
Jul
Jan
-04
Real Exchange Rate Index Real Exchange Rate Index (Other Important Trade Partners, Source – Federal Reserve )(Other Important Trade Partners, Source – Federal Reserve )
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Jan
-95
Jul
Jan
-96
Jul
Jan
-97
Jul
Jan
-98
Jul
Jan
-99
Jul
Jan
-00
Jul
Jan
-01
Jul
Jan
-02
Jul
Jan
-03
Jul
Crops Livestock
Ag Prices Received Index Ag Prices Received Index
$ Billion
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03f
Market Gov't Emrgy
$ Billion
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03f
Market Gov't Emrgy
U.S. Net Farm IncomeU.S. Net Farm Income
U.S. Cotton SupplyU.S. Cotton Supply
Million Acres
0
4
8
12
16
20
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
Southeast Mid-South Southwest West
Million Acres
0
4
8
12
16
20
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
Southeast Mid-South Southwest West
U.S. Upland Planted AreaU.S. Upland Planted Area
Thousand Acres
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
Thousand Acres
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
U.S. ELS Planted AreaU.S. ELS Planted Area
Pounds
699
606
708
537
705
673
625607
632
705
665
725
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
Pounds
699
606
708
537
705
673
625607
632
705
665
725
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
U.S. Cotton YieldU.S. Cotton Yield
Million Bales
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
Beg. Stocks Imports Production
Million Bales
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
Beg. Stocks Imports Production
U.S. Cotton SupplyU.S. Cotton Supply
SoutheastSoutheast 34.434.4 34.1 34.1 27.927.9 27.5 27.5
Mid-SouthMid-South 34.634.6 34.4 34.4 28.228.2 27.6 27.6
SouthwestSouthwest 34.434.4 33.3 33.3 29.429.4 28.0 28.0
WestWest 36.836.8 36.1 36.1 31.631.6 29.9 29.9
U.S.U.S. 34.734.7 34.3 34.3 28.828.8 28.0 28.0
2003 Crop Staple and Strength2003 Crop Staple and Strength
2003 20035-Yr.Staple Strength
5-Yr.
SoutheastSoutheast 94.294.2 77.6 77.6 42.342.3 44.8 44.8
Mid-SouthMid-South 95.895.8 73.1 73.1 46.346.3 46.5 46.5
SouthwestSouthwest 89.289.2 76.4 76.4 44.344.3 43.1 43.1
WestWest 96.196.1 95.2 95.2 42.842.8 45.0 45.0
U.S.U.S. 93.793.7 78.6 78.6 44.444.4 44.8 44.8
2003 Crop Color and Mike2003 Crop Color and Mike
2003 20035-Yr.%SLM+ Micronaire
5-Yr.
40
50
60
70
80
90
Au
g
Sep
No
v
Jan
Mar
May Ju
l
Sep
No
v
Dec 03 Dec 04
40
50
60
70
80
90
Au
g
Sep
No
v
Jan
Mar
May Ju
l
Sep
No
v
Dec 03 Dec 04
December Cotton FuturesDecember Cotton FuturesCents per Pound
175
200
225
250
275
300
Au
g
Oct
Dec
Feb Ap
r
Jun
Au
g
Oct
Dec 03 Dec 04
175
200
225
250
275
300
Au
g
Oct
Dec
Feb Ap
r
Jun
Au
g
Oct
Dec 03 Dec 04
December Corn FuturesDecember Corn FuturesCents per Bushel
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
Au
g
Oct
Dec
Feb Ap
r
Jun
Au
g
Oct
Nov 03 Nov 04
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
Au
g
Oct
Dec
Feb Ap
r
Jun
Au
g
Oct
Nov 03 Nov 04
November Soybean FuturesNovember Soybean FuturesCents per Bushel
SoutheastSoutheast 3,038 3,038 3,102 3,102 2.1 2.1 Mid-SouthMid-South 3,575 3,575 3,945 3,945 10.3 10.3 SouthwestSouthwest 5,870 5,870 6,621 6,621 12.8 12.8 WestWest 821 821 879 879 7.0 7.0
ALL UPLANDALL UPLAND 13,30413,304 14,54614,546 9.39.3
ALL ELSALL ELS 179 179 212 212 18.6 18.6
ALL COTTONALL COTTON 13,483 13,483 14,759 14,759 9.59.5
SoutheastSoutheast 3,038 3,038 3,102 3,102 2.1 2.1 Mid-SouthMid-South 3,575 3,575 3,945 3,945 10.3 10.3 SouthwestSouthwest 5,870 5,870 6,621 6,621 12.8 12.8 WestWest 821 821 879 879 7.0 7.0
ALL UPLANDALL UPLAND 13,30413,304 14,54614,546 9.39.3
ALL ELSALL ELS 179 179 212 212 18.6 18.6
ALL COTTONALL COTTON 13,483 13,483 14,759 14,759 9.59.5
2004 U.S. Planting Intentions2004 U.S. Planting Intentions
20032003 20042004 %% Actual Actual Intended Intended ChangeChange
20032003 20042004 %% Actual Actual Intended Intended ChangeChange
Thousand AcresThousand AcresThousand AcresThousand Acres
Million Bales
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04f
Beg. Stocks Imports Production
Million Bales
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04f
Beg. Stocks Imports Production
U.S. Cotton SupplyU.S. Cotton Supply
U.S. Cotton DemandU.S. Cotton Demand
Million Bale Equivalents
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
92 94 96 98 00 02 04f
Cotton Other
Million Bale Equivalents
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
92 94 96 98 00 02 04f
Cotton Other
U.S. Retail Fiber ConsumptionU.S. Retail Fiber Consumption
Percent
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03e 04f
Percent
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03e 04f
Cotton’s Share of Fiber ConsumptionCotton’s Share of Fiber Consumption
Million Bale Equivalents
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03e 04f
Domestic Imported
Million Bale Equivalents
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03e 04f
Domestic Imported
U.S. Retail Cotton ConsumptionU.S. Retail Cotton Consumption
Million Bale Equivalents
0
5
10
15
20
25
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03e 04f
Million Bale Equivalents
0
5
10
15
20
25
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03e 04f
U.S. Cotton Textile ImportsU.S. Cotton Textile Imports
Million Bale Equivalents
0
1
2
3
4
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03e
Imports Exports
Million Bale Equivalents
0
1
2
3
4
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03e
Imports Exports
U.S. Cotton Textile Trade with MexicoU.S. Cotton Textile Trade with Mexico
Million Bale Equivalents
0
1
2
3
4
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03e
Imports Exports
Million Bale Equivalents
0
1
2
3
4
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03e
Imports Exports
U.S. Cotton Textile Trade with CBIU.S. Cotton Textile Trade with CBI
Million Bale Equivalents
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03e
Million Bale Equivalents
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03e
U.S. Cotton Textile Imports from ChinaU.S. Cotton Textile Imports from China
Million SME
0
15
30
45
60
75
90
105
120
135
Knit Fabric Cotton/MMF Bras Cotton/MMF DressingGowns
2001 2002 2003e
Million SME
0
15
30
45
60
75
90
105
120
135
Knit Fabric Cotton/MMF Bras Cotton/MMF DressingGowns
2001 2002 2003e
U.S. Textile Imports from ChinaU.S. Textile Imports from China(China Textile Safeguard Categories)(China Textile Safeguard Categories)
Million SME
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
00 01 02 03e
Trousers Knit Shirts Woven Shirts Coats Other Products
Million SME
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
00 01 02 03e
Trousers Knit Shirts Woven Shirts Coats Other Products
Cotton Product Imports Cotton Product Imports from Vietnamfrom Vietnam
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03e 04f
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03e 04f
U.S. Cotton Mill UseU.S. Cotton Mill Use(Calendar Year, Million Bales)(Calendar Year, Million Bales)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04f
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04f
U.S. Cotton Mill UseU.S. Cotton Mill Use(Crop Year, Million Bales)(Crop Year, Million Bales)
The World Market The World Market & U.S. Cotton Exports& U.S. Cotton Exports
Million Bales
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04f
Net Imports Production Use Stocks
Million Bales
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04f
Net Imports Production Use Stocks
China Cotton Supply & UseChina Cotton Supply & Use
Million Bales
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04f
Million Bales
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04f
World Cotton ProductionWorld Cotton Production
Change in ‘04 Cotton ProductionChange in ‘04 Cotton ProductionUp 10.1 mil bales relative to 2003Up 10.1 mil bales relative to 2003
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
China
Australia
Pakistan
FSU
Brazil
US
Turkey
EU
Mexico
India
Million Bales
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
China
Australia
Pakistan
FSU
Brazil
US
Turkey
EU
Mexico
India
Million Bales
Million Bales
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
Cotton Polyester
Million Bales
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
Cotton Polyester
World Fiber DemandWorld Fiber Demand
Million Bales
75
80
85
90
95
100
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04f
Million Bales
75
80
85
90
95
100
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04f
World Cotton Mill UseWorld Cotton Mill Use
Change in ‘04 Cotton Mill UseChange in ‘04 Cotton Mill UseUp 1.1 mil bales relative to 2003Up 1.1 mil bales relative to 2003
-0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
China
Pakistan
Turkey
India
Brazil
FSU
Japan
EU
US
Million Bales-0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
China
Pakistan
Turkey
India
Brazil
FSU
Japan
EU
US
Million Bales
Million Bales
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03p 04f
Production Use
Million Bales
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03p 04f
Production Use
Foreign Cotton Production & UseForeign Cotton Production & Use
Million Bales
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04f
Million Bales
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04f
U.S. Cotton ExportsU.S. Cotton Exports
World Cotton Ending StocksWorld Cotton Ending Stocks
Million Bales
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04f
U.S. ROW China
Million Bales
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04f
U.S. ROW China
Beginning Stocks 5.38 4.25Production 18.22 18.49Imports 0.05 0.04
Total Supply 23.66 22.78
Mill Use 6.20 5.70Exports 13.20 12.51
Total Offtake 19.40 18.21
Ending Stocks 4.25 4.57Stocks-to-Use Ratio 21.9% 25.1%
U.S. Supply and DemandU.S. Supply and DemandMillion BalesMillion Bales
2003/04 2004/05
Beginning Stocks 36.97 32.36Production 92.20 102.28Imports 32.40 31.90
Mill Use 97.11 98.16Exports 32.05 31.60
Ending Stocks 32.36 36.75Stocks-to-Use Ratio 33.3% 37.4%
World Supply and DemandWorld Supply and DemandMillion BalesMillion Bales
2003/04 2004/05
MerchantsMerchantsGinnersGinners CrushersCrushers
ProducersProducers
CooperativesCooperatives
WarehousesWarehousesManufacturersManufacturers
Bound Copies of the Outlook are Available at the Close of this Session
