The Economics Implications of Fuel Management: Sagebrush Rangelands
Authors:Michael Taylor, Kimberly Rollins, Mimako Kobayashi, Robin Tausch
Presenter: Laine Christman (UNR)
For the Eastern Nevada Landscape Coalition and Nevada Pinyon-Juniper Joint Summer Conference
July 16th, 2014
Introduction and Study Area
Why the Great Basin? Suffering from invasive grass and
PJ encroachment Wildfire contributes to these
threats Ecosystem changes effects costs
of fighting fire, habitat, ranching, recreation values, etc.
Treatments to reduce threats Reduce fuel
loading/characteristics – lessen wildfire severity
Restore health and resiliency of the ecosystem
What is the value of these treatments?
One approach – put benefits in terms of reduced future wildfire suppression costs
Wyoming
Mountain Big
The Model
Inputs Treatment cost (per acre) and probability of success FRI and cost of wildfire (per acre) Transition time between ecologic health states
Assume a finite number of year without wildfire or treatment
Assume fire in “healthy state” is , fire in “unhealthy state” is
Simulation Based – dynamic Changes happen over time Uncertainty regarding state, success, fire
Defined States of Health Mountain Big Sagebrush
Healthy = Shrubs/ native grass or mix PJ/shrubs/ native grass Unhealthy = Closed Canopy PJ or invasive grass dominated
Wyoming Sagebrush Steppe Healthy = Shrubs/grass Unhealthy = Decadent sagebrush/grass or invasive grass
dominated
STM
Big Mountain Sagebrush (>6500 ft)
STM
Wyoming Sagebrush Steppe (4700-6500 ft)
Results - WSS
Wyoming Sagebrush Steppe - Initial
Ecological State
WSS-1
Healthysagebrush
WSS-2 Mature woody brush with annual
grass
WSS-3 Annual Grass
Dominated
Avg. Total Suppression Costs (NPV) – No Treatment
$350 $364 $390
Avg. Total Suppression Costs (NPV)– With Treatment
$56 $231 $251
Avg. Cost of Treatment(s) $19.50 $205 $164Average Wildfire NET Suppression Costs Savings (NPV)
$272 -$72 -$2,782
Average Benefit Cost Ratio (NPV) 13.3 0.7 0.06
WSS-1 •Benefit = $272/acre (CBR = 13.3)•Tx Cost - $19.50/acres and highly successful are preventing transition•Expected wildfire cost savings = $293/acre
WSS-2 • Treatment is
expensive ($205/acre)
• only successful half the time
• Failure moves to WSS-3
WSS-3 • reduces wildfire
suppression costs• Treatment is
extremely expensive
• Rarely successful
Result Table - MBS
Mountain Big Sagebrush - Initial Ecological
State
MBS-1
Healthysagebrush
MBS-2 PJ, mature
sagebrush &cheatgrass
MBS-2 Closed-
canopy PJ & cheatgrass
MBS-3 Cheatgrassdominated
Avg. Total Suppression Costs (NPV) – No Treatment
$273 $561 $576 $1,448
Avg. Total Suppression Costs (NPV) – With Treatment
$16 $158 $793 $894
Avg. Cost of Treatment(s) $19.50 $45.50 $205 $164Ave Wildfire NET Suppression Costs Savings (NPV)
$90 $358 -$419 -$2,332
Ave. Benefit Cost Ratio (NPV) 5.7 9.0 -1.1 0.2
MBS-1 & MBS-2•Only BCR greater than 1•Cheap, successful, prevent transition
MBS-3& MBS-4•Expensive, unsuccessful•Not a good return on investment
Results and Conclusion
Take Home Message Fuel treatment are cost effective for healthiest states only
Treatment costs are relatively cheap and success is relatively high
Results hold for a range of different success rates Fuel treatment costs greater than expected wildfire costs for unhealthiest states
Once degraded, benefits reduce dramatically Rehabilitation costs are expensive and success
is relative low
Fuel Treatment Priority for a uniform landscape
Focus on lands that have not yet transitioned
WSS-1 = 13.3MBS-1b CBR = 9.0MBS-1a CBR = 5.7
Thank You
