The Education 2030 Agenda & NQFs: Development Scenarios

Borhene Chakroun, Section Chief, UNESCO

The Education 2030 Agenda & NQFs: Development Scenarios

Borhene Chakroun, Section Chief, UNESCO

OVERVIEW

I. Major trends impacting Qualifications Frameworks II. QFs in the context of the Sustainable Development Goals and Education 2030 III. Looking forward: Major Shifts IV. UNESCO’s work on QFs V. Next steps: Advancing our shared agenda

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I. MAJOR TRENDS IMPACTING QUALIFICATION FRAMEWORK

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CHANGING LABOUR MARKET STRUCTURES

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20

40

60

80

100

2000 Latest 2000 Latest 2000 Latest 2000 Latest 2000 Latest 2000 Latest

East Asia & Pacific

South Asia Europe & Central Asia

Latin America & Caribbean

Middle East & North Africa

North America

Sha

re o

f em

plo

ymen

t (%

)

Share of employment by type, 2000 and latest*

In service In industry In agriculture Unknown

Note: *Latest data for Europe & Central Asia refer to 2014, South Asia and Latin America and Caribbean to 2013, East Asia & Pacific to 2011, and North America and Sub-Saharan Africa to 2010. 2000 data for MENA are missing. **the change in ‘share of GDP by type’ does not necessarily follow changes in the share of employment Source: *World Bank database , accessed in May 2016

• A growing number of people are leaving the agriculture sector for the service and industry sectors globally

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0

20

40

60

80

100

2000 Latest 2000 Latest 2000 Latest 2000 Latest 2000 Latest 2000 Latest 2000 Latest

East Asia & Pacific

South Asia Europe & Central Asia

Latin America & Caribbean

Middle East & North Africa

North America

Sub-Saharan

Africa

Perc

enta

ge o

f GD

P (%

)

Share of GDP by type, 2000 and 2014** Services Industry Agriculture

• About 85% of employment in East Asia and Pacific were in the service and industry sectors in 2011

DIGITISATION AND LABOUR MARKET POLARIZATION

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Technological advances can generate new opportunities, but also risks

Source: WDR 2016 team. See figure 2.24 in the full Report for more details. Data at http://bit.do/WDR2016-FigO_18.

Many digitised economies face increasingly polarized labor markets and rising inequality

Source: World Development Report 2016: Digital Dividends

Medium-skilled jobs can be at risk from automation

Need to equip workers with “new skills” to meet demands of the new economy

DIGITISATION AND LABOUR MARKET POLARIZATION

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Estimated share of employment that is susceptible to automation, latest year Technological advances can generate new opportunities, but also risks

Source: WDR 2016 team. See figure 2.24 in the full Report for more details. Data at http://bit.do/WDR2016-FigO_18.

Many digitised economies face increasingly polarized labor markets and rising inequality

Source: World Development Report 2016: Digital Dividends

Medium-skilled jobs can be at risk from automation

Need to equip workers with “new skills” to meet demands of the new economy

DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS: INCREASED MOBILITY AND MIGRATION

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Percentage change in regional distribution of the destination of international migrants between 1995 and 2015

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, accessed in January 2016, adapted by UIS-AIMS, UNESCO Bangkok

In Asia from 1995–2015: 76% increase in migration within the region (26 million more intra-regional migrants within Asia)

Migrants tend to be younger and in their working years, with many motivated by economic and social factors, such as employment and education

Source : UNDP (2016), Asia-Pacific Human Development Report.

PERSISTENT YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT

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Although Asia-Pacific has relatively low youth unemployment rates, it also has some of the highest

youth-to-adult unemployment ratios

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1

2

3

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Wor

ld

East

Asia

Sout

h-Ea

st A

sia

and

the

Paci

fic

Sout

h A

sia

Mid

dle

Eas

t

Nor

th A

frica

2000 2005 2010 2015p

Ratios of youth-to-adult unemployment rates (%), by regions, selected years

Youth unemployment rate, by region, 2000-2013

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10

15

20

25

30

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Perc

enta

ge (%

)

Middle east and North Africa

Central & South Eastern Europe

South East Asia and the Pacific

Latin america and the Caribbean

Sub Saharan Africa

East Asia

South Asia

Source: ILO, World Employment and Social Outlook 2015 database, adapted by UIS-AIMS, UNESCO Bangkok

PERSISTENT YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT

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Source : UNDP (2016), Asia-Pacific Human Development Report. Data Source: World Economic Forum (2013), The Global Competitiveness Report. Geneva

Among 358 million youth globally who are not in school, training or employment, 220 million are in Asia-Pacific, of

whom 101 million live in South Asia

0 5

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Share of youth not in education, employment, or training, total (% of youth population)

Data range from 2008-2014

Source: World Bank Data, accessed in May 2016) (http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.UEM.NEET.ZS/countries?display=default)

A gender gap is small in South Asia and South East Asia and the Pacific. In East Asia young men are

subject to higher unemployment than young women, whereas in South Asia the opposite is true

Youth unemployment rate by gender by region, 2013

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10

20

30

40

50

Ma

le

Fem

ale

Ma

le

Fem

ale

Ma

le

Fem

ale

Ma

le

Fem

ale

Ma

le

Fem

ale

Ma

le

Fem

ale

Ma

le

Fem

ale

East Asia South Asia Sub Saharan

Africa

South East Asia and

the Pacific

Latin america and the

Caribbean

Central & South

Eastern Europe

Middle east and North

Africa

Perc

enta

ge (%

)

Source: ILO, World Employment and Social Outlook 2015 database adapted by UIS-AIMS, UNESCO Bangkok

INCESSANT NATURAL DISASTERS AND ENVIRONMENTAL VULNERABILITY

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Growing need for green skills and environmental

awareness

Asia and the Pacific is the world’s most

disaster-prone region

Number of reported natural disasters, world regions, 1980-2011

Source: UNDP (2016), Asia-Pacific Human Development (http://www.asia-pacific.undp.org/content/dam/rbap/docs/RHDR2016/RHDR2016-full-report-final-version1.pdf); UNESCAP (2013), Statistical Yearbook for Asia and the Pacific 2013. (http://www.unescap.org/stat/data/syb2013/ESCAP-syb2013.pdf)

Disasters in Asia-Pacific: 2005-2014

III. QUALIFICATIONS IN THE CONTEXT OF THE SDGS AND

EDUCATION 2030

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Introducing the new 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

EDUCATION AND TRAINING IN THE CONTEXT OF THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS

SDG 4 : Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all

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A single agenda: Education 2030 = SDG 4 Comprehensive, holistic, ambitious, aspirational and universal Transformative, leaving no one behind Addressing unfinished business of Education for all (EFA) and

Millennium Development Goals and current and future challenges Education is a fundamental human right and an enabling right

Key Features: Access; Equity and inclusion; Gender Equality;

Quality; Lifelong Learning 14

EDUCATION AND TRAINING IN THE CONTEXT OF THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS

SDG TARGETS RELATED TO QUALIFICATIONS

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By 2030, SDG 4 calls on Member States to:

• Ensure equal access to affordable and quality TVET programmes (target 4.3)

• Substantially increase the number of youth and adults with relevant skills for

employment, decent jobs and entrepreneurship (4.4)

• Eliminate gender disparities in education (4.5)

• Ensure that all learners acquire the knowledge and skills needed to promote

sustainable development (4.7)

SDG 4 : Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all

SDG TARGETS RELATED TO QUALIFICATIONS

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SDG 8 calls on Member States to:

• By 2030, achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all

women and men, including for young people and persons with disabilities, and

equal pay for work of equal value (target 8.5)

• By 2020, substantially reduce the proportion of youth not in employment,

education or training (8.6)

SDG 8: Promote inclusive and sustainable economic growth, employment and decent work for all

IV. LOOKING FORWARD

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SEVEN MAJOR SHIFTS

I. Changing Role of NQFs

II. Reinforcing links with other public policies

III. Learning outcomes as cross cutting theme

IV. Right to education and right to lifelong learning

V. Growing importance of Representation

VI. Data revolution impacts

VII. Digitization of economies impacts

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IMPACTS OF SDGS: CHANGING ROLE OF NQF: THREE ANALYTICAL LENSES

Source: Adapted from Marope, M., Chakroun,B. & Holmes,K (2015)

NQF

TEN KEY POLICY AREAS OF TVET REFORM HAVE BEEN IDENTIFIED FROM INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCE

1. Enhancing responsiveness of TVET provision 2. Changing Perception of TVET 3. Reforming Qualifications Frameworks and building new

learning pathways 4. Establishing Post-Secondary TVET 5. Empowering learners: Learner-centred pedagogies 6. Work-based learning: Apprenticeship/in-service training 7. TVET teachers and trainers 8. ICT In TVET 9. Good governance and partnerships 10. Financing TVET 20

Source: UNESCO, 2015 & CEDEFOP, 2015

NQFS: SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT DEVICE • Water and Qualifications

• Qualifications of Health workforce

• Qualifications for Green economies

• Qualifications for reduced inequalities and gender equality

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ACCEPTING CHANGES Remaining challenges Accepting the need

Moving from design to implementation To go beyond formal qualification

Changing institutions To contextualize

Quality Assurance Measure cost-benefit

Recognition of non-formal and informal Revisit what learning achievements are valued

Increasing mobility, migration and refugees Common international approach to representation where all aspects of a person’s learning is electronically documented and authenticated

Adapting qualifications and facilitating pathways

Increasing the volume of validation of wider learning

Adapting to the future Digitization

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LEARNING OUTCOMES: CROSS-CUTTING THEME • Shift from access to learning outcomes at all levels from ECCE to HE

• Tool for measuring performance of education and training system

• Driver for lifelong learning and recognising formal, non-formal and informal learning

• Comparable data on learning outcomes (Learning Assessment Capacity Index) provides a snapshot of countries' readiness to produce the data needed to improve learning outcomes and monitor progress towards the Sustainable Development Goal on Education.

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COMMUNICATION OF LEARNING ACHIEVEMENTS AND RECORDS

• Learners records

• Skills Passports

• Badges

• Euro-Pass; Youth Pass

Volume Velocity Variety Validity

Qualifications in many forms

Recognising Wider

Learning

Digitization of economy

Qualifications in

Doubt

CHANGING NATURE OF NQFS

DATA REVOLUTION IMPLICATIONS

DIGITISATION OF NQF

Complementary digital and analog foundations

Digitization of credentials

Digitization of Learners records

Connecting Learners records data-bases

Interoperability with other systems including matching 33

IMPACTS OF POLARISATION OF LABOUR MARKET

IV. UNESCO’S WORK ON QUALIFICATIONS

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UNESCO: SETTING THE NORMS AND STANDARDS

Normative instruments on TVET • Recommendation Concerning Technical and Vocational Education and Training (2015)

Normative instruments on HE • Regional Conventions

• Work on Global Convention

Normative instruments on Right to Education

• The Right to Education Recommendation

• Guidelines

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UNESCO: ADVANCING THE GLOBAL AGENDA

Advancing national and regional agendas

World Reference Levels

Guidelines for Quality Assurance of Qualifications

Guidelines for Representation

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V. NEXT STEPS: ADVANCING OUR SHARED AGENDA

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Leverage the momentum produced by SDG4/Education 2030 to form beneficial partnerships in order to overcome key constraints and better capitalize on the potential of NQFs

NEXT STEPS: ADVANCING OUR SHARED AGENDA

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NEXT STEPS

Adopt a balanced and comprehensive approach to the development of education and training and give increased impetus to ‘right-based approach’

Strengthen multi-stakeholder partnerships

Accelerate initiatives and programmes

“Fundamental responsibility for successfully implementing this agenda lies with governments”

- Incheon Declaration

THANK YOU!

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