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Scott Foltz

December 10th, 2014

Professor Lavery

Political Science Senior Seminar

The effects of no excuses absentee voting on voter turnout in

midterm election cycles

Introduction

Throughout the ast half century, voter turnout in the !nite" States has e#erience" a

significant an" relatively consistent "ecline$1%et&een 1'(0 an" 1''4, electoral articiation in

the !nite" States "ecrease" from (4 ercent to belo& )0 ercent,2giving the !nite" States one

of the lo&est voter turnout rates among "emocracies$*Political scientists have i"entifie"

numerous factors to e#lain the "ecline of voting in the !nite" States an" have "ivi"e"

e#lanatory theories into five sub+categories restrictions in the voting rocess, olitical

mobilization, otential voters- socioeconomic situation, the overall state of the economy an"

sychological variables relate" to an in"ivi"ual-s olitical action$4.hile these subsets contain

significant overla, they encomass a &i"e variety of variables affecting voter turnout an"

illustrate the "ifficulties in altering circumstances to increase turnout$

1 Francia / errnson, 20042 Traugott, 20043 Traugott, 20044 Traugott, 2004

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Policymaers have reson"e" to "eclining voter turnout by altering one of the more

straightfor&ar" an" e#ternal ime"iments to voting restrictions relate" to ho& an" &here voting

taes lace$ onvenience voting legislation, statutes that strive to ease restrictions inherent in the

electoral rocess so as to increase voter turnout, reresent the ro"uct of this reform an" have

gro&n significantly over the ast several "eca"es$ 3any states have institute" measures such as

same "ay an" online voter registration, early voting, an" even all+mail voting in attemts to

lo&er the costs of voting an" conseuently increase voter turnout 5albeit &ith varying results6$ )

7n this aer, 7 e#amine the effects of no e#cuse absentee voting in relation to voter turnout in

mi"term election cycles$ 8o e#cuses absentee voting 5often referre" to as early voting6, a rocess

by &hich any registere" voter may reuest a ballot either online or in the mail that they &ill

receive an" may mail bac or return in+erson before a given election, has gro&n e#onentially

in the ast *) years$ For e#amle, alifornia became the first state to allo& no e#cuses absentee

voting in 1'9: &hile t&enty+si# states an" the District of olumbia ermit their citizens to "o so

to"ay$$(.hile a substantial bo"y of literature e#ists regar"ing the effects of convenience voting

reforms in Presi"ential elections, mi"term elections ossess little rominence &ithin the

literature on no e#cuses absentee voting$ 7 begin my stu"y &ith a revie& of the literature that

a""resses both facets of my analysis, e#loring the relationshis bet&een general theories of

voter turnout, mi"term elections, an" no e#cuse absentee voting$ 7 then e#lain the metho" of my

analysis, a comarative case stu"y that e#amines voting rates "uring mi"term elections in a

subset of states that have imlemente" no e#cuse absentee voting reform$ 3y analysis attemts

5 Gronke, Galanes-Rosenbaum & Miller, 2007 Leighley / 8agler, 2011

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to inform a greater un"erstan"ing of the e#tent to &hich no e#cuse absentee voting alters turnout

in mi"term election cycles$

Literature Review

The e#isting literature regar"ing voter turnout resents a mi#e" bag of theories an" erva"ing

uncertainty$ Perhas the most influential te#t on the sub;ect,An Economic Theory of Democracy

by

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&eighing the intrinsic value of voting too heavily an" ignoring other imortant variables relate"

to voter turnout, this mo"el also severely un"erestimates the number of voters in any given

election$12The failure of these mo"els to accurately re"ict voter turnout illustrates the "ifficulty

scholars have ha" in ans&ering the uestion of &hy citizens vote an" suggests many variables

are involve" in this euation$ The literature contains numerous other theories an" formulas that

attemt to "escribe the henomenon of voter turnout such as one-s "esire to minimize their regret

follo&ing the outcome of an election1*an" various social ressures one e#eriences$14=ften

focusing on Presi"ential election cycles, all of these factors fail to "escribe electoral articiation

in a comrehensive an" vali" manner$ 3oreover, these theories fail to account for the significant

"iscreancy in turnout bet&een Presi"ential an" mi"term elections$

3ore recent literature a"vocates for an encomassing an" multi+facete" aroach &hen

attemting to e#lain voter turnout$ .ithin this broa"er fiel" of ossibilities, the literature

regar"ing voter turnout resents several theories that more clearly e#lain the comaratively lo&

turnout in mi"term election cycles$

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turnout in these lo& information contests$ For instance, al"eira, Patterson an" 3aro foun"

voter mobilization by can"i"ates an" arties 5involving the srea" of information relate" to

can"i"ates an" issues6 has increase" turnout in mi"term elections$193oreover, other more

uncontrolle" an" election "een"ent variables such as cometitive races, 1:senatorial an"

gubernatorial races,1'an" olarizing or i"eological issues20increase turnout by raising attention

an" informing voters of mi"term elections$ onvenience voting reforms reresent another

ossible form of "ra&ing attention to lo& information contests$ o&ever, these convenience

voting reforms, such as no e#cuses absentee voting, resent a myria" of conflicting research an"

oinions$

Three strains of thought e#ist in the literature regar"ing the affects of no e#cuse absentee voting

statutes no e#cuses absentee voting ro"uces no "iscernible effect on turnout, no e#cuses

absentee voting increases voter turnout, an" no e#cuses absentee voting stimulates turnout

initially "ue to a variety of factors before eventually regressing bac to re+reform levels$

Scholars remain slit bet&een these three conclusions$ For instance, utilizing a statistical analysis

of !$S$ ensus %ureau "ata, Larocca an" Blemansi argue that no e#cuses absentee voting

significantly increase turnout among voters age" 1: to (4$21ontra"icting this conclusion, t&o

searate statistical analyses of Presi"ential elections bet&een 1':0 an" 2004 fin" no significant

correlation bet&een no e#cuses absentee voting an" voter turnout$22

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after reform,2*but that this effect "ereciates in follo&ing election cycles$24Several theories e#ist

to e#lain this temorary turnout increase in states &ith no e#cuse absentee voting measures$ For

e#amle, Ciammo an" %ro# hyothesize that the novelty an" originality of the reform attracts

attention initially, but that this effect soon &ears off in later election cycles$2)The stimulating

effect of certain mobilization tactics may also increase turnout follo&ing no e#cuse absentee

voting reform$ Secifically, =liver conten"s that &hen combine" &ith arty mobilization efforts

that srea" a&areness of no e#cuse absentee voting reform, the costs of voting are further

alleviate" an" the effect of the reform on turnout is magnifie" e#onentially$2(.hile Bar an"

%an"ucci challenge =liver-s claims by conclu"ing that little correlation bet&een absentee voting,

arty mobilization an" overall turnout e#ists,29others "escribe a >synergistic? relationshi

bet&een convenience voting reforms an" mobilization in state legislative elections$2:Desite

these contra"icting stu"ies, it aears no e#cuses absentee voting has increase" turnout in

multile states in the initial election follo&ing reform an" that certain mobilizing factors

influence turnout in mi"term election cycles$

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these elections an" conseuently increase turnout$ Desite the "iverse abun"ance of theories

e#laining voter turnout, convenience voting reforms an" mi"term elections necessitate further

stu"y$ 7 e#amine if no e#cuse absentee voting increases electoral articiation in these tyically

lo& turnout contests$

Research Question & Methods

3y research uestion focuses on these mi"term elections$ 7 as if no e#cuses absentee

voting reform increases electoral articiation in these lo& information contests$ 7 test t&o

hyotheses informe" by the e#isting literature$

H1$ 8o e#cuses absentee voting increases voter turnout in the first mi"term election

follo&ing reform$

H$ oter turnout, follo&ing the initial increase in the first mi"term election after reform,

&ill regress bac to re+reform levels in later mi"term election cycles$

Civen state+by+state "ifferences in electoral articiation, the many uncontrolle"

variables inherent in this analysis, an" the similarities of no e#cuses absentee la&s that states

have a"ote", 7 resent a multi+case stu"y aroach that rovi"es the best an" most effective

means by &hich to test my hyotheses$ .hile utilizing a case stu"y metho" &ill limit the

generalizability of my analysis, it allo&s me to e#amine the effects of voting reform in "iverse

olitical conte#ts$ Each of the three states e#amine" in my case stu"y are intensely analyze" in

each mi"term election throughout a t&elve+year san$ Secifically, 7 e#amine voting "ata from

the mi"term election cycle before the imlementation of no e#cuse absentee reform in

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comarison to the three follo&ing mi"term election cycles "uring &hich the reform &as in lace$

7 focus my research on 7o&a, 8orth arolina an" ermont$ @eresenting a geograhical

"istribution of the !nite" States an" abun"ance of electoral histories, these states also ossess

remarably similar no e#cuse absentee voting la&s an" ublicly rovi"e the absentee an" overall

voting "ata that maes my analysis ossible 5uncommon among most states6$ The "ata utilize" in

this analysis is sulie" from the 7nternet on each state-s resective Secretary of State &ebsite$ The 3obilization of ore SuortersG amaigns,Turnout, an" Electoral omosition in !nite" States Presi"ential Elections$?American /ournal

of olitical cience4' 546G (:'90*$ "oiG10$1111Aa;s$200)$4'$issue+4$

acson, @obert The 3obilization of !$S$ State Electorates in the 1':: an" 1''0 Elections$?

The /ournal of olitics)' 526G )20*9$ "oiG10$2*09A2'':19)$

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2002$ >Cubernatorial an" Senatorial amaign 3obilization of oters$?olitical 6esearch 7uarterly))

546G :2)44$ "oiG10$2*09A*0::0:1$

oyce, @obert$ 2010$ >Early oting in 8orth arolina$? +oates= +annons; *+ 5ocal >overnment 5aw$

=ctober )$ httGAAcanons$sog$unc$e"uAHO**01$

Bar, effrey =utsi"e 3oney .asn-t Eveything N7ssue E#laining oter Turnout PatternsG Cet out the oteH Pun"its Seculate 8egative 11$ .illiam $ @ier an" Peter $ =r"eshoo$ 1'(:$ N< Theory of thealculus of oting$-

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Patterson, Samuel $, an" Cregory effor"s- 3o"erate Stance$? The )ashington

ost, =ctober *0$

Sac, Bevin$ 1'':$ >linton Evoe" in 8orth arolina @ace$? The *ew or( Times, =ctober 2)$

Smith, 3$ The ontingent Effects of %allot 7nitiatives an" an"i"ate @aces on Turnout$?

American /ournal of olitical cience4) 5*6G 90090($ "oiG10$2*09A2(('24($

Streb, 3atthe& $ 201*$5aw and Election olitics The 6ules of the >ame!oboenG Taylor an" Francis$httGAAgrail$eblib$com$auAatronAFull@ecor"$as#HO10'2:44$

The *ew or( Times$ 1''0$ >The 1''0 ElectionsG State %y State N8ortheast,-? 8ovember 9$

The *ew or( TImes$ 2002$ >The 2002 Elections 8ortheast ermont,? 8ovember 9$

The *ew or( Times$ 2002$ >The 2002 ElectionsG South 8orth arolina,? 8ovember 9$

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Tolbert, aroline $, Daniel $ %o&en, an" To"" Donovan$ 200'$ >7nitiative amaigns Direct

Democracy an" oter 3obilization$?American olitics 6esearch*9 516G 1))'2$

"oiG10$1199A1)*2(9*0:*201:)$

Toner, @obin$ 1''0$ >The 1''0 ElectionG Political 3emo 7n -'0 @aces, .I ELET=@