The Electricity Technology Transformation
Barbara Tyran
Director, Washington Relations
Center for Energy Workforce Development
October 9, 2009
2© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Our Mission…
To conduct research onkey issues facing the
electricity sector…on behalf of its members, energy
stakeholders, and society.
3© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Our Members…
• 450+ participants in more than 40 countries
• EPRI members generate more than 90% of the electricity in the United States
• International funding of more than 15% of EPRI’s research, development and demonstrations
• Programs funded by more than 1,000 energy organizations
4© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
BasicBasicResearchResearch
andandDevelopmentDevelopment
TechnologyTechnologyCommercializationCommercialization
CollaborativeCollaborativeTechnologyTechnology
DevelopmentDevelopmentIntegrationIntegrationApplicationApplication
National Laboratories
Universities
Suppliers
Vendors
EPRI
Help Move Technologies to the Commercialization Stage…
Our Role…
Technology Accelerator!
5© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Presentation Overview
The Technology ChallengeDe-carbonize the electricity infrastructure and meet binding economy-wide CO2 reduction targets
Provide reliable, affordable, and environmentally responsible electricity
6© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Wh
ole
sale
Ele
ctri
cit
y C
os
t (2
007
cen
ts/k
Wh
)
Emissions Intensity (metric tons CO2 /MWh)
Cost
of
Ele
ctr
icit
y
De-Carbonization
2020
2050
The Technology Challenge
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.70
2007
7© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Presentation Overview
The Technology Challenge
Meeting The Challenge
Decisions Over the Next Decade will
Shape the Electricity Future of 2050
De-carbonize the electricity infrastructure and meet binding economy-wide CO2 reduction targets
Provide reliable, affordable, and environmentally responsible electricity
Technically feasible with a full portfolio of generation options
8© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
The CO2 ChallengeB
illio
n t
on
s C
O2
Historical Emissions
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
U.S. Electric Sector
Remainder of U.S.
Economy
83% Reduction in CO2
emissions from 2005
Assumed Economy-wide CO2 Reduction Target
2005 = 5982 mmT CO2
2012 = 3% below 2005 (5803 mmT CO2)
2020 = 17% below 2005 (4965 mmT CO2)
2030 = 42% below 2005 (3470 mmT CO2)
2050 = 83% below 2005 (1017 mmT CO2)
9© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Cen
ts/k
Wh
(in
200
7 ce
nts
)The Cost Challenge
Flat real electricity prices for past 40 years… what about the next 40 years?
U.S. Retail Price of Electricity
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
10© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
The Technology Challenge
Meeting the Challenge
The Electricity Technology Challenge
11© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
U.S
. E
lect
ric
Sec
tor
CO
2 E
mis
sio
ns
(mil
lio
n m
etri
c to
ns)
2007
2008
2009
U. S. Electric Sector CO2 Emissions
EIA Base Case
12© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
2009 Prism
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
U.S
. E
lect
ric
Sec
tor
CO
2 E
mis
sio
ns
(mil
lio
n m
etri
c to
ns)
Efficiency
Renewables
Nuclear
41% reduction in 2030 from 2005 level is technically feasible using a full portfolio of electric sector
technologies
41%CCS
Fossil Efficiency
Technology EIA Base Case EPRI Prism Target
Efficiency Load Growth ~ +0.95%/yr
8% Additional Consumption Reduction by 2030
T&D Efficiency None 20% Reduction in T&D Losses by 2030
Renewables
60 GWe by 2030 135 GWe by 2030 (15% of generation)
Nuclear12.5 GWe New Build by 2030
No Retirements; 10 GWe New Build by 2020; 64 GWe New Build by 2030
FossilEfficiency
40% New Coal,
54% New NGCCs by
2030
+3% Efficiency for 75 GWe Existing Fleet
49% New Coal; 70% New NGCCs by 2030
CCS None90% Capture for New Coal + NGCC
After 2020Retrofits for 60 GWe Existing Fleet
13© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
2009 Prism – PEV and Electro-Technologies
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
U.S
. E
lect
ric
Sec
tor
CO
2 E
mis
sio
ns
(mil
lio
n m
etri
c to
ns)
Efficiency
Renewables
Nuclear
CCS
Fossil Efficiency
Technology EIA AEO Base Case EPRI Prism Target
Electric Transportatio
nNone
PHEVs by 201040% New Vehicle Share by 2025
3x Current Non-Road Use by 2030
Electro-technologies None Replace ~4.5% Direct Fossil Use
by 2030
Low-carbon generation enables electrification and CO2 reductions in other
sectors of economy
Electro-Technologies
PEV
14© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Generation by Fuel Source in 2030
EIA 20304669 TWh
Prism 20304888 TWh
Prism 60% no- or low-carbon electricity by 2030
Coal
CoalNuclear
Nuclear
GasGas
Renw
Renw
C+CCS
50%
17%
19%
6%
7%
1%
Coal
Coal CCS
Petroleum
Gas
Gas CCS
Nuclear
Hydro
Renewables
28%
10%
11%2%
28%
6%
15%
What if we LIMIT the Generation PORTFOLIO?
What if we LIMIT the Generation PORTFOLIO?
15© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Technology Portfolios
Full Portfolio
Coal and Gas CCS available
Accelerated end-use efficiency
PEV’s can expand
Nuclear production can expand
Full Portfolio
Coal and Gas CCS available
Accelerated end-use efficiency
PEV’s can expand
Nuclear production can expand
Limited PortfolioNo CO2 capture and storage (CCS)
No plug-in electric vehicles (PEV’s)
Nuclear generation remains at existing levels
Limited PortfolioNo CO2 capture and storage (CCS)
No plug-in electric vehicles (PEV’s)
Nuclear generation remains at existing levels
16© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
MERGE Economic Model
Optimization Model of Economic Activity and Energy Use through 2050 – Maximize Economic Wealth
Inputs– Energy Supply Technologies and Costs
for Electric Generation and Non-Electric Energy
Constraints– Greenhouse Gas Control Scenarios– Energy Resources
Outputs– Economy-wide Impact of Technology and
Carbon Constraints
17© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Tri
llio
n k
Wh
pe
r y
ea
r
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Tri
llio
n k
Wh
pe
r y
ea
rMERGE U.S. Electric Generation Mix
Limited Portfolio
Full Portfolio
Coal
Gas
Wind
Demand Reduction
New Coal + CCSCoal
Gas
WindNuclear
Demand Reduction
Nuclear
Solar
Biomass
Hydro
CCS Retrofit
Biomass
Hydro
Generation Mix Generation Mix
Aggressive Energy Efficiency Needed with Either Portfolio
52% Increase in Demand Reduction with Limited Portfolio
18© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Tri
llio
n k
Wh
pe
r y
ea
r
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Tri
llio
n k
Wh
pe
r y
ea
rMERGE U.S. Electric Generation Mix
Limited Portfolio
Full Portfolio
Coal
Gas
Wind
Demand Reduction
New Coal + CCSCoal
Gas
WindNuclear
Demand Reduction
Nuclear
Solar
Biomass
Hydro
CCS Retrofit
Biomass
Hydro
19© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Tri
llio
n k
Wh
pe
r y
ea
r
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Tri
llio
n k
Wh
pe
r y
ea
r
Insights - Renewables
Limited Portfolio
Full Portfolio
Coal
Gas
Wind
Demand Reduction
New Coal + CCSCoal
Gas
WindNuclear
Demand Reduction
Nuclear
Solar
Biomass
Hydro
CCS Retrofit
Biomass
Hydro
> 20% Renewables by 2030 with Either Portfolio
> 50% Renewables by 2050 with Limited Portfolio
20© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Tri
llio
n k
Wh
pe
r y
ea
r
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Tri
llio
n k
Wh
pe
r y
ea
r
Insights – Nuclear and CCS
Limited Portfolio
Full Portfolio
Coal
Gas
Wind
Demand Reduction
New Coal + CCSCoal
Gas
WindNuclear
Demand Reduction
Nuclear
Solar
Biomass
Hydro
CCS Retrofit
Biomass
Hydro
Gas Expands Rapidly 2010-2020 if Uncertainty Exists
Regarding Availability of New Nuclear and CCS post 2020
Limited Portfolio – Gas Consumption Increases 275% from 2010 to 2050
21© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Wind
Biomass
Nuclear
Gas
Hydro
Coal CCSRetrofit
Wind
Biomass
Nuclear
Gas
Coal
Hydro
Coal + CCS
Limited Portfolio Full Portfolio
Remarkably different futures…and only 20 years away!
2030 Generation Mix
22© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Wind
Biomass
Nuclear
Gas
Hydro
Solar
Wind
Biomass
Nuclear
Gas
Hydro
Coal + CCS
Limited Portfolio Full Portfolio
Totally different futures in 2050
2050 Generation Mix
23© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
MERGE Wholesale Electricity Cost Results
2007 U.S. Average Wholesale Electricity Cost
Limited Portfolio
Full Portfolio
$/M
wh
(20
07$
)
2020 2030 2040 2050
Limited Portfolio
Full Portfolio
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
$220
210%
80%
2007 U.S. Average Wholesale Electricity Cost
Substantial increases in the cost of electricity
2050
24© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Wh
ole
sale
Ele
ctri
cit
y C
os
t (2
007
cen
ts/k
Wh
)
Emissions Intensity (metric tons CO2 /MWh)
Cost
of
Ele
ctr
icit
y
De-Carbonization
2020
2050
MERGE De-carbonization Results
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.70
2007
MERGE Projections 2020-2050
2020 2030
2040
205020202030
2040
2050
Limited Portfolio
Full Portfolio
25© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Limited Portfolio
Full Portfolio
Wh
ole
sale
Ele
ctri
cit
y C
os
t (2
007
cen
ts/k
Wh
)
Emissions Intensity (metric tons CO2 /MWh)
Cost
of
Ele
ctr
icit
y
De-Carbonization
20202030
2040
20502020
2030
2040
2050
MERGE De-carbonization Results
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.70
2007
MERGE Projections 2020-2050
2020 2030
2040
205020202030
2040
2050
Limited Portfolio
Full Portfolio
High Cost to meet 2050 Reduction Target with >80% Generation Mix
Gas and Renewables
26© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
The Technology Challenge
Meeting the Challenge
The Electricity Technology Challenge
27© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Meeting the Challenge
2007 U.S. Average Wholesale Electricity Cost
Limited Portfolio
Full Portfolio
$/M
wh
(20
07$
)
2020 2030 2040 2050
2007 U.S. Average Wholesale Electricity Cost
Limited Portfolio
Full Portfolio
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
$220
Technology Actions Based on Meeting the Prism Technology Targets
Technology Innovation to De-carbonize While Achieving a Cost of Electricity Near
Today’s Level
RD&D and Deployment Challenge
Innovation Challenge
28© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Power Delivery & Utilization: energy demand is increasing…
• 2008 Annual Energy Outlook -
– 30% increase in U.S. electricity consumption by 2030.
– New load equivalent to 2006 electricity usage in California, Texas, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvaniacombined!
29© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Bringing it home…Consumer Electronics
PLASMA TV SET TOP BOX
42”250W
30Wvs.
27”100W
Consumes 2.5x more energy
30W
==
2 set top boxes consume as much energy in one year as a
refrigerator
30© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Bringing the picture into focus…
Digital Photo Frames1 per U.S. home…
250 MW Power Plants*
*250 MW plant can serve 160,000 full homes
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EPRI’s Living LaboratoryRecently Featured in TIME
32© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Smart Grid
• We are in the infancy in developing a smart grid
• Smart grid can mean different things to different utilities
• No standards for inclusive technologies
• Smart capabilities vary from utility to utility
State of the technology…
33© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Smart Grid
• Smart power delivery infrastructure encompassing physical power, storage, advanced information technology and intelligent sensors and applications
• Numerous impacts
– Reliable grid operations when connecting to renewable resources
– Dynamic grid adjustment to reduce losses and increase efficiency
– On-line assessment to minimize reliability events
Where we want to be…
34© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Identifying a smart grid and how to create it…• Methodology, technology tools, and standards recommendations
• Information systems to support smart grid
applications
• Unbiased testing of technologies and products
• Development of communications architecture that will enable interoperability
IntelliGrid
35© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
EfficientBuildingSystems
UtilityCommunications
DynamicSystemsControl
DataManagement
DistributionOperations
DistributedGeneration& Storage
Plug-In Hybrids
SmartEnd-UseDevices
AdvancedMetering
Consumer Portal& Building EMS
Internet Renewables
PV
Smart Grids and Local Energy Networks
ControlInterface
36© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
EfficientBuildingSystems
UtilityCommunications
DynamicSystemsControl
DataManagement
DistributionOperations
DistributedGeneration& Storage
Plug-In Hybrids
SmartEnd-UseDevices
AdvancedMetering
Consumer Portal& Building EMS
Internet Renewables
PV
Smart Grids and Local Energy Networks
ControlInterface
37© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Electric Transportation
EfficientBuildingSystems
UtilityCommunications
DynamicSystemsControl
DataManagement
DistributionOperations
DistributedGeneration& Storage
Plug-In Hybrids
SmartEnd-UseDevices
ControlInterface
AdvancedMetering
Consumer Portal& Building EMS
Internet Renewables
PV
• PHEV technology is ready now
• Hybrids remain dependent on combustible fuels
• Existing challenges remain for fully electric vehicles
• All electric PHEV 40 mile range could meet the transportation requirements for 80% of vehicles
• Widespread adoption of PHEVs can reduce GHG emissions by 2050 the equivalent to removing 82.5 million passenger cars from the road
State of the technology…
38© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Action Framework… Four Evolving Infrastructures
Creating the Electricity Network of the Future
39© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Limited Portfolio
Full Portfolio
Wh
ole
sale
Ele
ctri
cit
y C
os
t (2
007
cen
ts/k
Wh
)
Emissions Intensity (metric tons CO2 /MWh)
Cost
of
Ele
ctr
icit
y
De-Carbonization
20202030
2040
20502020
2030
2040
2050
Conclusion
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.70
2007
MERGE Projections 2020-2050
2020 2030
2040
205020202030
2040
2050
Limited Portfolio
Full Portfolio
Electricity policy and technology actions over the next decade will to a great extent
shape the electricity future of 2050
Which Future Are You Creating?
40© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.Image from Image from NASA Visible EarthNASA Visible Earth