F U N D A Ç Ã O B R A S I L E I R A P A R A O D E S E N V O L V I M E N T O S U S T E N T Á V E L
Mini-Symposium BIO-FUELS – SCIENTIFIC, ETHICAL AND ECONOMIC
CHALLENGES The Manna Center for Plant Biosciences
The Emerging Biomass EconomyAn Overview
May 15, 2007
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The Challenge
Humanity is faced with the critical challenge of reducing environmental impacts of energy use and production
The present energy matrix requires major changes
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What Challenges Does The Current Energy Matrix Present?
Confluence of critical vectors:• Environmental stress• Geopolitical problems• Macroeconomic model
What would be required: a consistent focus on environmental impacts, social problems and economic viabilitiesThe future energy matrix requires:
• Increased reliance on renewable energy sources• High priority for the development and deployment of new energy
technologies• Improved energy efficiency
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Transport Emissions by Country, 1990-2030
North America
Europe
PacificTransition EconomiesChinaIndiaOther AsiaMiddle EastLatin AmericaAfrica
Source: Stern Review Report (2006)
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Transport CO2 Emissions by Mode in 2000
Cars and vans45%
2-3 wheelers2%
Buses6%
Freight trucks23%
Water10%
Int'l air7%
Domestic air5%
Rail2%
Source: Stern Review Report (2006)
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World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Vehicular Transportation
●By substituting 36% of gasoline with ethanol by the year 2030, GHG emissions from gasoline-fueled vehicles could remain at the same level as in 2005 for avoided emissions of 1,545 million metric tons of CO2/year
●In Brazil, 33.7% of gasoline had already been replaced by ethanol by 2005, representing avoided emissions of 22.3 million metric tons of CO2/year
Note: 1. GHG Emissions in the Transport Sector: 5,743 million metric tons of CO2 or 14% of Total World Emissions** 2. Avoided emissions from biodiesel as substitute for petrodiesel could also contribute to GHG mitigation but
at lower percent values
Year Gasoline Consumption Emissionsbillion liters/year million metric tons CO2/year
2005 1,142 3,2492030 1,685 4,794
Present and Future Gasoline Consumption and GHG Emissions
* International Energy Agency projection ** Data from year 2000; Source: WRI 2004
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First Generation Biofuels
EthanolCurrently made from two types of crops: • sugar-producing plants: sugarcane, sugar beet • grains: wheat, corn
BiodieselGroup of esterified vegetable oils produced from oil-containing crops, most importantly canola, soybean, sunflower and palm oil
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Sugar Cane World Map Countries & Regions
Source: British Sugar
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Promising Species for Biodiesel Production in Brazil
Castor: 1,200 liters/ha/yr.
Palm oil: 5,950 liters/ha/yr.
Macaúba: 4,000 liters/ha/yr.
Babaçú: 1,600 liters/ha/yr.
Soybean: 400 liters/ha/yr
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Status of First-Generation Biofuels Characteristics and Cost
Biofuel Technology
Raw Material Typical Energy Costs (cents/kWh)
Cost Trends and Potential for Cost Reduction
Ethanol[gasoline equivalent]
SugarcaneCornWheat Cellulose*
25-30 cents/liter Declining costs in Brazil due to production efficiency, now 25-30 cents/equivalent-liter (sugarcane)Stable in the United States at 40-50 cents (corn)
Biodiesel[diesel equivalent]
SoyCanolaPalm oilWaste vegetable oilAlgae*
40-80 cents/liter Cost could decline to 35-70 cents/liter diesel equivalent post-2010 for canola and soyCost likely to remain at current level of about 25 cents for biodiesel from waste oil
* In development
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Intermediate Generation of BiofuelsUnder Implementation
• In the wake of first-generation biofuels, other pathways are emerging based on other resources or processing methods
• The objective is to diversify available resources while improving product quality
• Intermediate generation reflects the growing importance of biofuels in the oil-dependent transport sector
• Oil majors are moving into the biofuels market, historically dominated by agribusiness conglomerates
• Avenues opened up by Petrobras (H Bio product), the Neste Oil (NextBtL product) and BP Dupont (Biobutanol product) should see development in the next few years because they allow biofuel technologies to benefit from economies of scale inherent to the oil industry
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Second-Generation BiofuelsUnder Advanced Development
Second-Generation Biofuels use ligno-cellulosic biomass as raw material
Biomass to Liquid (BTL) Technology● BTL technology is a thermochemical
process by which a liquid synfuel is obtained from biomass trough three steps – biomass conditioning, gasification and of the motor fuel synthesis
● The process has not reached the industrial stage to be considered economically competitive
Ethanol production by means of hydrolysis
● Processes such as Organosol Rapid Hydrolysis and Enzymatic Hydrolysis promise to sharply increase productivity without expanding planted areas
● Cost reductions for ethanol from cellulose are projected, from 53 cents today to 27 cents post-2010
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Possibilities for the Near FutureAlgae as Raw-Material for Biodiesel
Production Crop Oil Yield (L/ha) Land Needed (M/ha)a
Corn 172 1,540Soybean 446 594Canola 1,190 223Jatropha 1,892 140Coconut 2,689 99Palm Oil 5,950 45Microalgaeb 136,900 2Microalgaec 58,700 4.5Macroalgae In early trials
a For meeting 50% of all transport fuel needs of the United Statesb 70% oil (by weight) in biomassc 30% oil (by weight) in biomass
Source: Chisti, Y. (2007)
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Possibilities for the Near Future Sustainable Hydrogen Production
Alternative Processes for Hydrogen Production
● Biogas — may be a hydrogen source with steam reforming or partial oxidation
● Alcohols — ethanol and methanol derived from biomass are rich in hydrogen and may be reformed into hydrogen
● Power — water electrolysis from electricity produced by hydro-power plants
● Wood — pyrolysis technology to produce hydrogen from biomass
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Contact
Israel KlabinPresident
FBDS Board of [email protected]
FBDS — Brazilian Foundation for Sustainable DevelopmentRua Eng. Álvaro Niemeyer, 76 – São Conrado
22610-180 Rio de Janeiro – RJ BRAZILTel: +55 (21) 3322-4520 – Fax: +55 (21) 3322-5903
Site: www.fbds.org.br
