The emerging middle class and the world market for beef
Shirley Tarawali
Assistant Director General, International Livestock Research Institute, Kenya
Panel session at the International Livestock Congress,
Houston, Texas, 3-4 March 2016
ILRI/Stevie Mann
Animal source foods: 5 of 6 highest value global commodities (total value of these five: over US Int $ 700 billion)
FAOSTAT 2015(values for 2013)
Cow milk
Rice, paddy
Indig. Pig meat
Indig. Cattle meat
Indig. Chicken meat
farmed food fishwheat
soybeansmaize
sugar cane
tomatoes0
50
100
150
200
250
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
net production value (Int $) billion production (MT)
Net
pro
ducti
on v
alue
(Int
$) b
illio
n
Prod
uctio
n (M
T) m
illio
ns
Cattle meat$171 billion
Gains in meat consumption in developingcountries are outpacing those of developed
1980 1990 2002 2015 2030 20500
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
developingdevelopeddeveloping at same per cap. as developed (hypothetical)
Milli
on m
etric
tonn
es
Drivers of change: population
Anticipated change 2013 – 2050Asia: +20%
Africa: +113%Europe: -4%
2015 GDP growth forecast
By 2050 over two-thirds of the world will live in cities
Figures for 2014
Middle class?
Rapidly increasing middle class
2009 2020 20300
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
N.America EC C/S America Asia Pacific SSA MENA Total
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e
]
Middle class ($10-100 per person daily)Nearly 5 billion by 2030: two-thirds of the total
Fewer people below US$1.25/day
2010 2020 20300
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Millions of people below US$1.25/day
East Asia Pacific E.Europe Central Asia L.America CarribeanMENA S.Asia SSA
Per capita GDP and meat consumption, 2005
E.Asia Pacific
China
South Asia
SSA
High income
0
50
100
150
200
250
% growth in demand for livestock products to 20302000 - 2030
11
E.Asia Pacific
China
South Asia
SSA
High income
0
50
100
150
200
250
E.Asia Pacific
China
South Asia
SSA
High income
0100200300400500600700800
E.Asia Pacific
China
South Asia
SSA
High income
0
50
100
150
200
250
FAO, 2011
Dark bars: Based on anticipated change in absolute tonnes of product comparing 2000 and 2030Light bars: new estimates using IMPACT model, 2005 to 2030, courtesy Dolapo Enahoro, ILRI
Beef Pork
Poultry Milk
Increase in middle class means increase in beef consumption
OECD C/S America Asia Pacific S.Asia SSA MENA-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
% change in number of middle class, 2000 to 2030
OECD C/S America Asia Pacific S.Asia SSA MENA0
50
100
150
200
250
% change in consumption of beef, 2000 to 2030
Demand for beef in 2050
About 90 million tonnes beef needed to meet demand in 2050
N.America
20%
SSA23%Asia
46%
Other11%
Demand for livestock commodities in developing economies will be met – the question is how
Scenario #1Meeting livestock demand byimporting livestock products
Scenario #2Meeting livestock demand by
importing livestock industrial production know-how
Scenario #3Meeting livestock demand by
transforming smallholder livestock systems
Replacing the 90% of locally produced animal commodities is not feasible
EconomicallyAfrica’s food import bill (2013): US $ 44 billion
About one fifth is livestock (highest after cereals):Meat: US $ 5 billion; Milk: US $ 4 billion Business as usual: the import bill sky rockets
Or for livelihoodsAlmost 1 billion rely on livestock for livelihoods and produce over 70% of the livestock products today43% of the agricultural workforce is female
The value of beef imports
2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
USA CentralAm SEAsia SSAfr NAfr Asia
USD
mill
ions
Sustainable beef production
Animal welfare as a component
Environmental dimensions- Beef cattle produce over 2,500 million tonnes CO2 eq per
annum- Which is 41% of all livestock sector emissions- Emission intensity for beef is over 300kg C02 eq per kg of
protein- But there are big opportunities to mitigate emissions,
especially where intensities are currently highest (S.Asia, SSA, South America)
Sustainable beef consumption?- Debates over what is
‘appropriate’ consumption….
- Current recommendations 70-90g per capita per day
- For many millions a small amount of meat could make a significant contribution to a nutritious diet
ILRI/Susan Macmillan
Sustainable animal food systems are a must
• Productivity and efficiency:– Sufficient food with lower
environmental foot print: Animal health, genetics, feeding
• Animal source foods:– Safe, not wasted and consumed in
appropriate quantities
• Emerging challenges:– Zoonotic diseases– Anti-Microbial Resistance
•
Beef feeding the middle class: feeding the World?
• Understand drivers of demand
• Ensure animal welfare is addressed
• Address environmental sustainability
• Consider the role of beef in diets
• Ensure opportunities for positive impacts on livelihoods are not missed
ILRI/Stevie Mann
The presentation has a Creative Commons licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is given to ILRI.
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