Lec 15: The End of Money
I. After Bretton WoodsII. Explaining Foreign Monetary
PolicyIII.The Future of Money
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Lec 15: The End of Money
I. After Bretton WoodsII. Explaining Foreign Monetary
PolicyIII.The Future of Money
4
The BWS was an attempt to secure the benefits of
openness without sacrificing monetary policy autonomy (control over domestic price
level).
Keynes & White wanted to avoid the experience of the
1930s: policy autonomy secured by competitive
devaluations (adjustable ERs) and protectionist trade policy.
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So, the BWS attempted to reconcile openness on trade and ER stability with policy autonomy by…
(1) Erecting moderate capital controls (on “speculative” capital)(2) Managing small imbalances through the IMF 7
Summary of the Bretton Woods System
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• Stable ERs– ERs fixed within narrow band– No ER adjustments without consent of IMF– IMF makes loans to resolve imbalances stops
price-specie-flow
• Open Trade & Commerce– IMF created alongside Int’l Trade Organization ITO– IMF embraces burgeoning GATT regime
• Capital Controls– Currency convertible into gold or dollar– Limits on “speculative capital”
But in August 1971, Nixon “closed the gold window,” meaning: he unilaterally
devalued the dollar and he suspended convertibility.
After several successive conferences failed to
preserve the system, the Bretton Woods System was
essentially dissolved. 9
Post-BW Monetary System• Disorderly ERs– Increasing Number of States Float– Others choose to fix (some
controversially so, like China)– Slower reactions to crises: 1994, 1997,
2008
• Regional currency agreements (Euro, CFA)– Decline of multilateralism
• Challenge to US power– Euro, Yen, & Yuan aspire to be Nth
Currency11
Official ER Regimes of Major Currencies
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Fixed ER Regime Floating ER Regime
China; Hong Kong; Saudi Arabia
US; Euro; Britain; Russia; Japan; India; Australia; Poland; Switzerland
Note: These are the de jure (official) ER regimes. The regimes may not reflect market ER stability!!
Remember that the IMF was created principally to
manage the BWS. One of its purposes was to reconcile imbalances of payments.
14
But with the transition to floating ERs, the IMF
became an institution without a mission.
How did the IMF react?
15
It went from trying to alleviate illiquidity to attempting to resolve
insolvency.
It went from trying to manage imbalances of
payments to redressing the supposed underlying causes
of those imbalances. 17
The Washington Consensus
• 1989: Formulated by John Williamson in context of Latin Amer crises & Post-Soviet Transition
• Supported by IMF, World Bank, & US Treasury
• 3 Pillars–Macroeconomic Discipline–Market Economy– Openness to World Economy (trade &
FDI)18
The New IMF: For Better or Worse
• Variable Track Record– Good: Eastern Europe & Mexico (1994)– Questionable: 1997 East Asian Financial
Crisis
• Gate Keeper for International Funding– Independent monitoring & rating – Potential tool of powerful countries
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So now we know the broad contours of the history of
the international monetary system.
Let’s turn to consider how we, as social scientists, explain this empirical
record...20
The End of Money
I. After Bretton WoodsII. Explaining Foreign Monetary
PolicyIII.The Future of Money
21
How do we explain states’ foreign monetary policies?
Well, let’s return to Topic 3: Explaining Foreign
Economic Policy
22
Types of Explanations of FEP• Systemic/Structural Explanations– Variables: Distribution of Power;
International Regimes/Institutions– Examples: Steve Krasner; David Lake
• Domestic Explanations: 3 I’s– Ideas (Irwin)– Interests (Rogowski)– Institutions (North; Bailey, Goldstein, &
Weingast)
23
We’ve already applied these frameworks to explain trade
policy.
Now, we’ll employ them to explain some of the “critical junctures” in the history of
foreign monetary policy (FMP).
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Remember that our mode here is to simultaneously...
(1) use the theories to explain the empirics;
and (2) use the empirics to test the theories.
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“The explanation of this book is that the 1929 depression was so wide, so
deep and so long because the international economic system was
rendered unstable by British inability and United States unwillingness to
assume responsibility for stabilizing it in three particulars: (a) maintaining a
relatively open market for distress goods; (b) providing counter-cyclical
long-term lending; and (c) discounting in crisis.” (p 291)
27
Structural Theory• Hegemonic Stability Theory:
Hegemon provides vital public goods– Openness– Lender of last resort– Liquidity
• Theorists:– Steve Krasner: Trade openness– Charles Kindleberger: Stable
international financial system– Keohane: Int’l Regimes may stand in
place for hegemon 28
“[I]ncreased levels of financial and commercial integration drive monetary
policy toward the exchange rate, make the exchange rate more distributionally divisive,
and lead to a more politicized context for the making of macroeconomic policy…All
else equal, domestically oriented producers prefer a flexible exchange rate,
internationally oriented ones a fixed exchange rate. Tradables producers prefer a weak (depreciated) currency, non-tradables
producersand overseas investors a strong
(appreciated) one.” (261)30
Frieden: Domestic Interests
• Increasing integration sharper political divisions– (Sound like Rogowski?)
• Map Interests onto preferences (p 260)– (1) ER Stability versus MPA– (2) High versus Low ER
31
So, FMP can be seen as a tool to serve domestic interests—
just like trade.
But FMP is far blunter an instrument than trade.
What are the implications of that for the usefulness of this type of explanation for FMP?
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Polanyi: Domestic Institutions
• GS ideal sacrifices MPA• Practical Implications– Deflationary bias– Does not respond to unemployment
• Why would a state give up MPA? Serves capital at the expense of labor!
• Polanyi’s Historical Shift: democratization– Prewar: poor weren’t represented GS– 1930s Forward: poor stop putting up
with GS 35
“I argue that a transatlantic group of economists and policy specialists, united by a common set of policy ideas and a shared view that past
economic failures could be avoided by innovative postwar economic
arrangements, led their respective governments toward agreement by identifying a set of common Anglo-American interests that were not
clearly seen by others.” (59)
37
So, Keynesian “New Thinking” pointed the way
to some kind of compromise between US and GB.
(Ikenberry, however, isn’t completely consistent on the nature of that
compromise.)
38
So, in Topic 2, we developed several different ways to explain
foreign economic policy: int’l structure, domestic institutions,
interests, & ideas.
We considered their explanatory power with respect to Trade
Policy.
And now we’ve done the same with Foreign Monetary Policy. 39
The End of Money
I. After Bretton WoodsII. Explaining Foreign Monetary
PolicyIII.The Future of Money
40
Counterfeiting• Problem with fiat currency: giant
seigniorage!• John Locke’s fear– States don’t fear some dude in his
garage; states fear other states!– international norms are insufficient to
prevent economic warfare
• Examples:– Nazi Germany: Operation Bernhard (see
Counterfeiters, 2008)– North Korean Superdollars (or is it the
CIA?)43
Hoarding• Sometimes specific units of currency are
hoarded and/or disappear from circulation• Reasons:– Better Media:
• Small denominations can purchase more than large (“Big problem of small change”)
• But 10% charge at Coinstar machines!• Can’t use $100 bills at gas stations at night• Argentina: need coins for buses
– Intrinsic value surpasses exchange value: US penny and the rising price of copper
• Speculation: Argentina’s small coins today
44
Currency Competition
• Previously, we assumed monetary sovereignty
• But not all states have monetary sovereignty– Germany, 1923– Zimbabwe today
• Even the US dollar faces competition at home– Alternative Currency: foreign currency use at
home– Complementary Currency: Middlebury Money,
Ithaca Hours, Berkshares, E-gold, Bitcoin45
Speculative Attacks
• Predominantly affects leveraged, fixed regimes– Leverage: ratio of liabilities (circulating
cash) to reserves– Greater leverage greater risk
• May be organized or disorganized– Disorganized: panic run on the bank– Organized: coordinated attack by
entities with market power
46
Breaking the Bank of England
• GB joined European ER Mechanism (ERM) in 1990– Obliged to maintain ER within 6% band of European
currencies
• By 1992, Pound was overvalued; despite 15% interest rates
• Soros bet on devaluation: borrowed £6.5bn to buy Deutschmarks & Francs effect: market ER of GBP vis-à-vis DM fell
• Black Wednesday (16 Sept 1992): GB devalued GBP
• Soros converted back into GBP at new, lower ER, getting approximately £7.5bn
Soros then repaid £6.5bn loans, netting £1bn !! 48
Contagion• Currency values are often linked– Fixed: US & Hong Kong– Trade: Brazil & Argentina; US & Canada– Investment: 1997 East Asian Financial
Crisis
• Problems with one currency spread to linked currencies even if linked economies have no other problems
49
Remember that we’ve been assuming that states enjoy monetary sovereignty--the ability to control the market value of domestic currency, currency used within their
borders.
51
Jerry Cohen, however, reminds us that this assumption has rarely
held true.
Across most of history, the “one-country, one-currency” correlation
has not been the rule.
Strong currencies have traveled abroad while weak currencies
have struggled to circulate even in their home markets. 52
This raises two questions:
(1) What determines the geography of money?
(2) What is the future of money?
53
Currency Hierarchy• Currency Hierarchy: some currencies
perform the functions of money better than others
• Medium of Exchange:– Transactional Liquidity: easy to exchange– Transaction Network: lots of goods to
purchase
• Store of Value:– Capital Certainty: reasonable predictability
of asset value– Return: real rate of interest (controlling for
inflation) 55
Benefits of Monetary Sovereignty
• Monetary Policy Autonomy• Seigniorage• Political Symbolism• Insulation (Independence from
Foreign Influence)
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But if monetary sovereignty is so great, why have
several European countries given that up to adopt the
Euro?
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McNamara on the Euro
• New ideas lowered benefits of monetary sovereignty– States coordinated MPA around German
practice: low inflation
• New ideas raised benefits of cooperation– Insulation was increasingly viewed as
fruitless– Emphasis on benefits of integration
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Are such currency unions the wave of the future?
Europe might be special. Cohen thinks so. But McNamara seems to
disagree.
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