Trajectory Trends Breakfast

27th April 2017

The End of Stuff?

Introduction

“If we look on a global basis, in the

west we have probably hit peak stuff.

We talk about peak oil. I’d say we’ve

hit peak red meat, peak sugar, peak

stuff…peak home furnishings.”

- Steve Howard, CEO, IKEA

Challenging Stuff

The Experience Economy“As services, like goods

before them, increasingly

become commoditised –

think of long-distance

telephone services sold only

on price – experiences have

emerged as the next step in

what we call the progression

of economic value”.

B. Joseph Pine II &James H. Gilmore,

Harvard Business Review, 1998

Shared Experience

e.g. 86% of event organisers use ‘Attendee satisfaction’ as a metric, 73% use ‘Number of attendees’ etc.

Source: Welcome to the Experience Economy; Raconteur.net

Metrics used by event organisers to gauge an event’s

success; 2014

FOMO

6. Last minute activities (e.g. museum, cinema etc.)

7. A regular Friday/Saturday night out

8. Festivals

9. Hen/Stag Parties

10. Baby Showers & Christenings

1. Holidays

5. Concerts & Gigs

4. Dinner Parties

2. Birthday Parties

3. Engagement Parties & Weddings

Top 10 Activities Brits Fear Missing Out On20%Say missing out on social occasions

makes them feel depressed

£1463UK Average annual spend on

activities you “can’t say no to”

16%State they’re unable to say no to events

despite not being able to afford them

Source: VoucherCodes.co.uk; 2013

Cultural Capital& Connoisseurship

“Connoisseurship has never been more popular.

Long confined to the serious appreciation of high art and classical music, it is now applied to an endless

cascade of pursuits.

Leading publications, including The New York Times,

routinely discuss the connoisseurship of coffee,

cupcakes and craft beers; of cars, watches, fountain

pens, lunchboxes, stereo systems and computers; of

tacos, pizza, pickles, chocolate, mayonnaise, cutlery

and light.”

- John Peder Zane, 2013

Forms of

Capital

Economic

Social

Cultural

Source: Bourdieu, 1986

The De-materialisation of Stuff

Permanent

Downloads,

52%

Subscription

Streams Income

23%

Other

12%

Ad-supported

Streams Income

9%

Mobile Personalisation

3%

Global Digital Revenues by Sector (2014)

Source: IPFI Digital Music Report, 2015

The End of Ownership?

Housing & Ownership

69% 70% 69% 69% 69% 68% 68% 67% 66% 65% 65% 64% 63% 63% 62%

10% 10% 12% 12% 12% 14% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 19% 20% 20%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Dwelling stock in England by tenure;

Percentage of total dwellings

Owner Occupied Privately Rented

57%52%

42%

33%

25%

46%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1

Poorest

2 3 4 5

Richest

Overall

Proportion of non-owners saying they never expect to

buy a home by equivalised household income, 2015

Source: Dwelling stock estimates in England, 2014; ONS Source: Bank of England, NMG Survey, 2015

Sharing is Car-ing

54%

78%

58%

76%

37%

17%

31%

18%

7%3%

8%4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Before After Before After

Longer-term Members New Members

Car ownership before and after joining

a car club

3

2

1

0

Source: Carplus Annual Survey of Car Clubs, 2015/2016

1%

2%

2%

5%

6%

9%

12%

13%

14%

37%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

My employer joined a CC and I joined through

my employer

I sold or disposed of at least one car and

joined a CC

I joined a CC to gain access to a vehicle while

studying

I live in a residential development with a

designated CC and I joined through it

Owned at least one car, but needed another

so joined a CC

A car of mine stopped working, and instead of

replacing it I joined a CC

Owned one car, but I joined a CC and sold or

disposed of the car

I joined a CC for other reasons

My household did not have a car, but

changes in life required a car so I joined a CC

My household did not have a car, so joined a

CC to gain additional personal freedom

Reasons for joining a car club (CC)

Urbanisation

1960

78%

1980

78%2000

79%

2020

84%

2040

87%

1960

34%

1980

39%

2000

47%

2020

56%

2040

63%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

19

50

19

55

19

60

19

65

19

70

19

75

19

80

19

85

19

90

19

95

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

25

20

30

20

35

20

40

20

45

20

50

Percentage of population at mid-year residing in

urban areas; UK, 1950 to 2050

United Kingdom Global

Source: World Urbanisation Prospects, 2014

People increasingly living in

close geographical proximity

Socioeconomic context places

people under financial pressure

‘Underuse’ of products creates

surplus which can monetised

Surplus can be ‘shared’; 2nd

homes create surplus, Airbnb

mediates use of this surplus

The Endism of Ownership

Nuanced Ownership

The Pillars of the Sharing Economy

Digital platforms that

connect spare capacity

and demand

Access over Ownership Collaborative forms of

consumption

Branded

experiences that

drive emotional

connection

Renting

Lending

Subscribing

Reselling

Swapping

Donating

Ultimately this is an economy consisting of transactions based on trust.

Source: PWC Consumer Intelligence Series – The Sharing Economy (2016)

Impact and Sectors

Source: JustPark – The Sharing Economy Index

Source: BusinessInsider

The Library of Things & The Economy of Hours

Hybrid Experiences

“In our society, the public space of the

social movements is constructed as a hybrid

space between the Internet social networks

and the occupied urban space: connecting

cyberspace and urban space in relentless

interaction, constituting technologically and

culturally, instant communicates of

transformative practice

… the networked space between the digital

space and the urban space, is a space of

autonomous communication.”

Manuel Castells, Networks of Hope and Outrage, 2012

Stuffocation & Decluttering

Conspicuous Consumption

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2012 2013 2014 2015

Paid Subscribers to Subscription Services

(Millions)

3.2 million vinyl

records sold in the UK in 2016

Source: British Phonographic Industry - Official UK Recorded Music Market Report for 2016 Source: International Federation of the Phonographic Industry - Global Music Report 2016

eBooks

29%

3%

16%

7%

21%

4%

30%

6%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

I will not change my behaviour

and refuse to buy electronic

books, newspapers, and

magazines.

In the future, I will only read

eBooks and electronic

newspapers/magazines.

What are your future plans regarding

eBooks and eReaders?

Germany US UK The Netherlands

Source: PWC – The Future of eBooks (2016)

3%

7%

12%

15%

18%

21%

23%

0%2%

3%

6%

9%

12%

14%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

22%

24%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Market Share of eBooks – 2009 to

2015

Germany US UK Netherlands

The Future of Stuff

Online Content & Ownership

“Despite promotional language – in giant letters – with the words "buy" and "purchase", you are only buying a license to use the material yourself, and legally that's all.”

- The Guardian, ‘The Bruce Willis dilemma? In the digital era, we own nothing’, 2012

Losing Access to Data

38%

29%

20%

7%6%

40%

20%

22%

14%

5%

44%

27%

18%

2%

9%

40%

29%

19%

5%

7%

36%

33%

23%

4%5%

42%

29%

18%

7%

4%

27%

42%

18%

8%

5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Sad - there are memories

stored on those devices that I

would never get back

Calm - I have memorised the

things that matter and keep

hard copies of the pictures

Panic - it's the only place I

have my images and contact

information

I do not have any connected

devices to store my

information on

Other

Emotional Impact of Loss of Data and/or Access to Data

All UK Germany Spain Italy France Benelux Countries

Source: Kaspersky Lab: The Rise & Impact of Digital Amnesia (2015)

Composite storage and memories

Our relationship to ‘things’ is changing

“There’s two motors, there’s 10 printed circuit boards, there’s a scanner, there’s a microprocessor, there’s a

wireless chip, wireless antenna. There’s 775 aircraft-grade aluminum. There’s a gear box. There’s latches that support

16,000 pounds of force …”- Doug Evans, Juicero CEO

Source: Bloomberg- ‘Silicon Valley’s $400 Juicer may be feeling the squeeze’

What will ‘stuff’ mean in the future?

Trajectory

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