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The End of Think Tanks
(As We Know Them)
Is Reut a Think Tank?
Our Big Ideas / ‘Impact’
• Development: ISRAEL 15 Vision (06’)
• Periphery: Regional Leapfrogging (10’)
• Poverty: Inclusiveness (11’)
• De-legitimization: Political Firewall (10’)
• Palestinians: Coordinated Unilateralism (06’)
• National Security: Total Foreign Policy (11’)
• Crisis Preparedness: Civil Resilience Network (09’)
• Diaspora Relations: Renewed Zionism (10’)
• Intl assistance: 1 Billion Within 1 Decade (11’)
Facts and Figures
• Average Age: 31
• No PhDs
• Collaboration with hundreds of experts
• 25 Disciplines (Engineering, Architecture, Computers, Judaism,…)
• Leadership backgrounds + social skills required
• Foreign Nationals: 1/3 of team
• Globalization: 30 countries and across USA
• Donors: +100
Outline
Part I:Ecosystem Transformed
Part II:Impact & Measurement
Part III:Next Generation of Think
• Institutions
• Aspiration to IMPACT
• Research & Analysis
• Policy areas
• Independent
Scope
Part I: Ecosystem Transformed
Example: Brookings & Marshall Plan
Step 1: AccessChair of Senate Foreign Relations Committee asks Brookings for “an objective study…”
Step 2: ResearchBrookings produces a 20-page report containing eight recommendations for the new program
Step 3: ImpactBrookings report becomes work-sheet for Government Plan
Change in the Nature of Change
Time
Rele
van
cy
Paradigm ‘relevant’ to
reality
Paradigm Eroded
Paradigm Loses
RelevancyRise of
Competing Paradigms
New Paradigm
Generations
A few years
A World Without Paradigms
Time
Rele
van
cy
Fundamental Surprises
RelevancyClear research
needs
IncubationSituational Learning
Denial+ Situational
Learning
Basic LearningAdaptation
Relevancy Gap
A Revolutionary Age
Complexity: More players interacting
Black Swans:Need for flexibility
No experts: Need for new knowledge
Decline of Gov: Rise of others
Ideas not Enough: Framing & reframing
Pressures to adapt & lead
More Adaptive Problems
Technical ProblemSolution: Clear
Problem: TechnicalResponsibility: Authority
Adaptive ProblemSolution: Requires Learning
Problem: AdaptiveResponsibility: Broad
Experts are cheap buyer’s market
Lack of knowledge / info Stables of experts
Abundance of knowledge Need to make sense of things / no experts
Cacophony / Narrowcasting Emphasis on getting heard
Research = Impact Outputs = Impact
Research / Output not impact impact mandates leadership
Gov weak; borders permeated expand focus beyond Gov
Big Gov solves societal problems Gov focus
Diverging Reality
Previous Mindset
Fundamental Gaps in Think Tank Model
Broadcasting Exposure = Impact
Expertise rare Sellers’ market
Ideologies From idea to policy
Pragmatism what works in field
Example: Macroeconomic Policy
Washington Conesus
10 Macroeconomic Policies
1980-2008 Dominant Mindset
No clear success
Washington Confusion
Growth ReportFocus on structures
Pragmatic / bottom-up
Rodrik, Dani. 2006. "Goodbye Washington Consensus, Hello Washington Confusion? A Review of the World Bank's Economic Growth in the 1990s: Learning from a Decade of Reform." Journal of Economic Literature
Part II: Impact & Measurement
Definition of Impact
“Significant or lasting change in people’s lives, brought about in a given action or series of actions”
InstitutionalA technical fix to adap prob.
Law; policy; budget; bldg; info Control of outcome / not impact
EcosystemAdaptive Res to Adap. Prob.
Language; discourse; incentivesNo control over outcome / impact
Integrated approachMultiple tech fixes along a chain
Homeless: food, training, job, shelterControl of output / outcome.
Not Impact
Impact 101
Theory of ChangeFocused
Theory of ChangeComplex
Operational Theory
Complex
Operational Theory
FocusedNiche
A technical fix to a tech prob.Soup kitchen; New library
Control of output / outcome. Not impact
Understanding Ecosystems
Government
NGOs
Business
Academia
Media
PhilanthropistsActivists
ValuesPrioritiesLanguagePatternsSymbols Heroes
What to Measure?
Inputs Activities Outcomes Social ImpactOutputs
What goes in
• Funds• Equipment• Expertise
What happens
• Workshops• Soup kitchen• Training• Construction
Immediate results
• People fed• Policy papers• Coalitions
Mid-term results
• Improved conditions
• Change political position
Effects on root causes
• Sustained change in metrics
• Fundamental change in social norms and attitudes
Inputs Activities Outcomes SocialImpact
Outputs
Input measurement Result measurement
Knowledge Creation Promoting alternative framework and vision
Influence
“Measuring” impact
No direct impactOften undue credit
No mission accountability
Presently
What Do You “Measure"?
Desired
Publications
Recommendations
Media Appearances
Access
Recognition
Language and Discourse
Structural Changes
Incentives & Priorities
Heroes / Symbols
Patterns of Conduct
Policy
Ecosystem
Something to brag about
No direct claim to fame
Next Generation of Think Tanks
From Stables of Hedgehogs to Packs Foxes
'Foxes' evaluate the meaning of things by moving between areas
of knowledge, understanding reality as constantly changing.
(Isaiah Berlin)
'Hedgehogs' have expertise in a defined area, and constantly try and present things as fitting or not fitting
into their system of beliefs. (Isaiah Berlin)
New Role for Think Tanks
Eco
syst
em
Ecos
yste
m
New Knowledge: In-Between
Academics to activists
Disciplines: existing and non-existing
Concepts, ideas, ideologies
Process more important than brilliance
Intuition
Impact: From Research to Leadership
VisionQuestions
PartnershipsEcosystem
Catalyzing Change
ResearchAnswersAccessPolicy
Exposure
Institutional Reforms
Organizational brand
Efforts over areas of knowledge
Process over knowledge
From government to non-government
New categories of products
Thank You!
CatalystDirect actions in all sectors
through partnerships & coalitions
Conceptual FrameworkAlternative mindset and the
different response
Effects TableList of transformations required to
affect the eco-system
Reut’s Impact Strategy
Theory of ChangeFocused
Theory of ChangeComplex
Operational Theory
Complex
Operational Theory
FocusedNiche
Special Projects YouTube Video Campaign