The EU pigmeat market Current situation and future prospects

Raluca Rusu European Commission, DG AGRI

Rakvere, 7 November 2018

Some key figures of EU pig production

▪ Pig population: 255 million pigs (2017)

▪ Production: 23.6 million tonnes carcass weight of

pigmeat (2017)

▪ Self sufficiency: 112%.

▪ Exports: 2.6 million tonnes carcass weight (11% of EU

pigmeat production), processed products and offals

excluded.

EU PIG SECTOR KEY FIGURES

EU PIG SECTOR KEY FIGURES

The importance of the EU pig sector

▪ Pigmeat represents 50% of total EU meat production.

▪ Pigmeat is the most exported out of all the meats produced

in the EU. Pigmeat exports represent 58% of EU total meat

exports (2017 data).

▪ The EU pig sector represented in 2016 8.5% of the total

output of the agricultural industry in EU-28, the highest

when compared to other meat sectors. The pig sector

represents 35% of the total EU meat output of animal

production.

EU: an important player in the globalpork market

C h i n a 5 5 0 4 1

4 6 %

E u r o p e a n U n i o n 2 3 6 1 8

2 0 %

U n i t e d S t a t e s o f

A m e r i c a 1 1 3 2 0

1 0 %V i e t N a m

3 6 6 53 %

Braz i l3 5 1 4

3 %

R u s s i a n F e d e r a t i o n

3 3 6 83 %

C a n a d a 2 0 4 8

2 %

O t h e r s 1 5 5 9 5

1 3 %

( + 0 . 2 % o v e r

2 0 1 5 )

M a i n P r o d u c e r s o f P i g m e a t ( In 1 0 0 0 t o n n e s p r o d u c t w e i g h t )

7 c o u n t r i e s =

WORLD

P I G PRODUCERS

DE 545523% ES

4299

18%

FR 2177

9%PL

1990

9%

BE1045 NL5% 1456 IT DK

6% 1467 15306% 7%

Others 394417%

EU MainProducers( 1000 Tonnes productweight)

Year2017

Total EU = 23362

(-1% over2016)

8 MSs=

83% of total EU

production

EUROPEAN UNION

P I G M A R K E T

EU MEMBER STATES

main producers

DE

57868

23% ES50073

20%

FR

23404

9%PL

22067

9%DK

174667%

IT

4% 151696%

BE

10950

4% 11 381NL

Others46838

18%

EU MainProducers( 1000 Heads)

Year2017

Total EU = 255215

(-1% over2016)

8 MSs=

82% of totalEU

production

W O

R L

D

P I

GM

A R

K E

TP

IGM

AIN

EX

PO

RT

ER

S

EU

EU

UnitedStates

UnitedStates

Canada

Brazil

China + H.Kong

Chile

Canada

Brazil

China + H.Kong

Chile

Mexico (uptoJul)

Mexico (up toJul)

Russia (up to Jul)

Russia (up to Jul)

0 500

10

00

15

00

20

00

25

00

20

17

(up

toA

ug

us

t)

Qty in 1000Tonnes

Ma

inE

xp

or

ters

of

PIG

Pr

od

uc

ts

(up

toA

ug

us

t)

So

ur

ce

:GT

A

20

18

(up

toA

ug

us

t)

Ex

cl. L

ive

an

ima

ls

W O

R L

D

P I

GM

A R

K E

TP

IGM

AIN

IMP

OR

TE

RS

China + H.Kong

China + H.Kong

Mexico(u

Japan

p tojuil)

Mexic

Japan

o (up tojuil)

outhKorea

nitedStates

up tojuil)

SouthKorea

nitedStates

s (up tojuil)

S

U

Philippines(

Canada

Australia

U

Philippine

Canada

Australia

0 200

400

600

800

10

00

12

00

14

00

20

17

(up

toA

ug

us

t)

Qty in 1000Tonnes

Ma

inIm

po

rters

of

PIG

Pro

du

cts

(up

toA

ug

us

t)

So

ur

ce

:GT

A

20

18

(up

toA

ug

us

t)

Ex

cl. L

ive

an

ima

ls

W O R L D

P I G M A R K E T

PIG PRICES

EU, BR, CAN, US

50

70

190

170

150

130

110

90

210

World weekly average Pig prices 2016 - 2018 in Euro/ 100kg carcase (EU, Brazil, Canada andUSA)

EU US BR CAN

EU = weighted average of MS prices for classes S (64.12%) and E (35.88%).US = weekly USDA national weighted average carcass prices

(https://mpr.datamart.ams.usda.gov/amsdashboard/swine/Swine_Dashboard_Option_1.html)

BR = average of Valor Vista prices in main producingstates

105.63 111.14 109.64137.70

Current EU pig market situation

P I G P R I C E S EU E V O L U T I O N

EU

Pr

ice

s

EUPrices Evolution since last week

137.7Average

(S-E)-0.8%

-0.8%ClassS 138.4

136.4ClassE -0.7%

33.4Piglet -0.4%€/head

€/

10

0 k

g c

ar

ca

ss

we

ig

ht

Evolution since last month

Evolution since last year

-4.1%

-4.3%

-3.8%

-3.1%

-7.3%

-6.7%

-8.2%

-23.4%

43

P R I C E S

C A R C A S ES

E U E V O L U T I O N

AVERAGE CLASSES S & E

115

130

145

160

175

190

EU evolution of the EU pig carcass prices (average class E & S)

(€/ 100kg/cw)

Average (13 -17) 2016 2017 2018

Week 43 latest price ==> 137.70 EUR/100 kg/cw

Evolution compared same period last year : - 7.3%

P R I C E S

PIGLETSE U E V O L U T I O N

60

55

50

45

40

35

30

65

EU evolution of the EU average piglet prices

(€/head)

Average (13 - 17) Piglet - 2016 Piglet - 2017 Piglet - 2018

Week 43 latest price ==> 33.43 EUR/head

Evolution compared same period last year : - 23.4%

EU P R O D U C T I O N % E V O L U T I O N

IN HEADS

22

.6%

14

.7%

10

.7%

7.8

%

6.7

%

6.0

%

5.5

%

5.2

%

5.2

%

5.2

%

4.9

%

4.2

%

3.5

%

2.7

%

2.6

%

2.2

%

2.1

%

1.2

%

1.0

%

-0.3

%

-0.6

%

-0.8

%

-1.4

%

-1.4

%

-1.9

%

-4.4

%

-5.2

%

-8.8

%

2.8%

-15%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

SK RO LV BG EE LT ES PL BE NL IE UK DK SE PT FR HR HU AT CY SI DE LU CZ IT EL MT FI EU

Change in Pig Slaughter ('000 Heads)2018/2017 (up to July)

Source: Eurostat

EU P R O D U C T I O N % E V O L U T I O N

IN TONNES

22

.8%

15

.2%

9.1

%

8.9

%

7.5

%

7.2

%

6.9

%

6.3

%

6.3

%

4.9

%

4.8

%

4.8

%

4.1

%

4.0

%

3.7

%

3.4

%

2.7

%

2.6

%

2.6

%

1.5

%

1.4

%

0.6

%

0.1

%

-0.7

%

-2.0

%

-2.8

%

-8.4

%

-9.7

%

3.7%

-15%

-10%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

SK RO LV BG PL ES EE NL IE LT BE UK HR SE DK PT EL FR HU IT AT CZ SI DE LU CY FI MT EU

Change in Pig Slaughter ('000 tonnes) 2018/2017 (up to July)

Source: Eurostat

The importance of the EU pig exports

EU

trad

e of PIG

prod

ucts

T R

A D

EE

UT

R A

DE

BA

LA

NC

E

46135

59720

71937

51641

63 800

55918

56077

54499

72276

22612

21730

32368

43179

59838

51789

44193

37655

36967

34 487

35245

33 064

32788

36361

23516

881 011

943 405

1 083 230

1 238 138

1 556 961

1 545 907

1 331 808

1 526 563

1 509 302

1 780 568

1 938 455

2 089 363

1 910 908

2 569 087

2 386 245

2 627 630

3 246 486

3 247 956

3 242 414

3 036 539

3 370 266

4 159 911

3 843 130

2 564 438

4 5

00

00

0

4 2

50

00

0

4 0

00

00

0

3 7

50

00

0

3 5

00

00

0

3 2

50

00

0

3 0

00

00

0

2 7

50

00

0

2 5

00

00

0

2 2

50

00

0

2 0

00

00

0

1 7

50

00

0

1 5

00

00

0

1 2

50

00

0

1 0

00

00

0

75

00

00

50

00

00

25

00

00

0

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Jan-Aug18

Tonnes carcase weight

EU

Tra

de

of P

IGp

rod

ucts

IMPO

RTS

EXP

OR

TS

EU imports of selected PIG productsTrade figures (COMEXT – tonnes carcass weight)

T R A D E EU I M P O R T S

P i g P r o d u c t s

IMPORT

2014

tonnes %

2015

tonnes %

2016

tonnes %

2017

tonnes %

Jan-Aug 18 Compared

toJan-Aug17tonnes %

Switzerland 18 207 52% 20 225 61% 22 257 68% 22 922 63% 13 734 58% -7%

Serbia 3662 10% 1819 6% 614 2% 2694 7% 2255 10% 28%

Chile 3416 10% 2896 9% 2958 9% 2434 7% 1985 8% 20%

Norway 3192 9% 2315 7% 1989 6% 2296 6% 1931 8% 17%

USA 1498 4% 1769 5% 1711 5% 1707 5% 1113 5% -4%

China 917 3% 378 1% 250 1% 1315 4% 628 3% 56%

Other 4353 12% 3663 11% 3010 9% 2994 8% 1870 8%

Extra-EU 35245 33064 32788 36361 23516

%change - 6% - 1% + 11% +0.4%

EU MS exporting pigmeat 2017

EU Pig Export Destinations 2017

EU exports of selected PIG products:Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes carcass weight)

T R A D E E U E X P O R T S

P i g P r o d u c t s

2014

tonnes %

2015

tonnes %

2016

tonnes %

2017

tonnes %

Jan-Aug 18 Comparedto

Jan-Aug 17tonnes %

China 717035 23.6% 1 141 484 33.9% 1 866 299 44.9% 1 403 475 36.5% 890574 34.7% -2%

Japan 347721 11.5% 364745 10.8% 405335 9.7% 425824 11.1% 306335 11.9% + 3%

South Korea 227846 7.5% 241569 7.2% 260670 6.3% 275466 7.2% 219172 8.5% + 17%

Philippines 202698 6.7% 191891 5.7% 216539 5.2% 250953 6.5% 193203 7.5% + 11%

Hong Kong 408779 13.5% 292651 8.7% 363251 8.7% 382632 10.0% 153962 6.0% -35%

USA 90985 3.0% 105123 3.1% 116806 2.8% 155527 4.0% 118602 4.6% + 11%

Ukraine 106794 3.5% 96640 2.9% 75696 1.8% 88143 2.3% 67357 2.6% + 37%

Australia 73156 2.4% 102645 3.0% 101174 2.4% 95290 2.5% 62584 2.4% -7%

Vietnam 16056 0.5% 38290 1.1% 53483 1.3% 41603 1.1% 49695 1.9% + 52%

Serbia 62905 2.1% 47488 1.4% 41174 1.0% 55030 1.4% 47368 1.8% + 37%

Taiwan 52970 1.7% 53701 1.6% 47865 1.2% 64470 1.7% 39452 1.5% -5%

Singapore 40265 1.3% 40962 1.2% 39994 1.0% 37711 1.0% 28910 1.1% + 10%

Other 689329 22.7% 653077 19.4% 571625 13.7% 567005 14.8% 387223 15.1%

Extra-EU 3 036 539 3 370 266 4 159 911 3 843 130 2 564 438

% change + 11% + 23% - 8% + 1.0%

EU exports of selected PIG productsTrade figures (COMEXT – tonnes carcass weight)

T R A D E EU E X P O R T S

P i g P r o d u c t s

911931 890574

228012146971156816277774

236515173842188022

297360

153962193203219172

306335

692321

732307 801191

2 837630

2 539977 2 564438

0

500000

1 000000

1 335736

1 500000

2 000000

2 500000

3 000000

Jan-Aug16 Jan-Aug17 Jan-Aug18

Tons(cw).

19881364 1167

931

325138331

848

427211513

253198514

1436 1685

1671

5066 5155

4734

0

1000

956 2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Jan-Aug16 Jan-Aug17 Jan-Aug18

in M

illi

on

sE

UR

The current challenges for the EU pigexports

DG AGRI G3 20 September 2018

ANIMAL DISEASES: ASF & EU Pig Density:2013

ASF REGIONALISATION

Thank you for your attention!

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