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1 The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and regulatory policy framework Presentation by Dr. Andreas Schwarz* European Commission; additional input by Prof. Dr. Paul JJ Welfens, EIIW at the University of Wuppertal (www.eiiw.eu) *This presentation does not necessarily present the official position of the European Commission.
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Page 1: The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and …...1 The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and regulatory policy framework Presentation by Dr. Andreas Schwarz* European

1

The EU's external competitiveness: The

trade and regulatory policy framework

Presentation by Dr. Andreas Schwarz*

European Commission; additional input by

Prof. Dr. Paul JJ Welfens, EIIW at the University of Wuppertal (www.eiiw.eu)

*This presentation does not necessarily present the official position

of the European Commission.

Page 2: The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and …...1 The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and regulatory policy framework Presentation by Dr. Andreas Schwarz* European

Trade (w)

• Trade generates benefits in three forms:

– Specialization gains

– Economies of scale of better exploited (e.g.

automotive, steel, computer chips etc.)

– Higher diversity of products (utility is raised)

• In a 2 country model of world economy

(e.g. EU country I, country II China) the

current account surplus of II implies a

current account deficit of country I;

sustained CA deficit= rising foreign

indebtedness – how long can it continue? 2

Page 3: The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and …...1 The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and regulatory policy framework Presentation by Dr. Andreas Schwarz* European

Schumpeterian Dynamics Intensified in

Enlarged Transatlantic Market (!?)

Intensification oftransatlantic & global Innovation process=

more patents

Intensification oftransatlantic & global Innovation process=

more patents

Patent thickening asstrategy of MNCs: =

Barriers to entry

Patent thickening asstrategy of MNCs: =

Barriers to entry

3

Page 4: The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and …...1 The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and regulatory policy framework Presentation by Dr. Andreas Schwarz* European

Trade Liberalization Perspectives 2013-

2015• 1) Doha WTO round has not made

progress

• 2) New Approaches with Bilateralism

which later might help to jumpstart the

Doha WTO Round again

– 2013: EU-Singapore; later EU-Thailand

– July 8, 2013: EU-US negotations on

Transatlantice Trade and Investment Par-

tnership Initiative (TTIP); much on trade, but

more on Non-tariff barriers (NTBs) – could

generate about 0.5 to 1% economic growth in

the US and the EU, respectively4

Page 5: The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and …...1 The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and regulatory policy framework Presentation by Dr. Andreas Schwarz* European

Background on TTIP

• 1) There is a Transpacific Partnership

Project (TPP) which involves since 2011

US+Canada+Mexico and 9 Asian

countries – including Japan (since 2013).

• 2) EU-US transatlantic liberalization talks

(TTIP) stand for counter-balancing the US

pivot to Asia: TTIP has started in July

2013 and will have a strong focus on non-

tariff barriers and investment. Rules of

origin are a major issue, standards also

5

Page 6: The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and …...1 The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and regulatory policy framework Presentation by Dr. Andreas Schwarz* European

TTIP Perspectives

Merchandise liberalizationMerchandise liberalization

Services liberalization

Services liberalization

6

Page 7: The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and …...1 The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and regulatory policy framework Presentation by Dr. Andreas Schwarz* European

Services liberalization with special

challenges• In the WTO services are in the special

regime of GATS (general agreement of

trade in services)

– Limited implementation of Most-favored

national clause (MFN = giving to all

partners the best condition you give to any

of your trading partners)

– Non-discrimination

– Opening up sub-sectors

7

Page 8: The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and …...1 The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and regulatory policy framework Presentation by Dr. Andreas Schwarz* European

Importance of TTIP

Glo

ba

l P

erp

se

citve

Glo

ba

l P

erp

se

citve

US & EU standards = global standards

US & EU standards = global standards

Last opportunity on transatlantic initiative

before China dominates?

Last opportunity on transatlantic initiative

before China dominates?

Growth impulse for EU with its problems of

stagnation

Growth impulse for EU with its problems of

stagnation

8

Page 9: The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and …...1 The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and regulatory policy framework Presentation by Dr. Andreas Schwarz* European

Selected Problems

Regu-lations

US withinterdependent

agencies

e.g. Telecom-

munications(FCC)

Financial Markets

(FED, FDIC)

EU with partlyprivate sector

institutions

Telecom-

munications, etc.

9

Page 10: The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and …...1 The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and regulatory policy framework Presentation by Dr. Andreas Schwarz* European

Options of How to Deal with Different

Regulations

Mutual Recognition

Mutual Recognition

Common

Recognition

Common

Recognition

JointlyAccepted

Procedures ofRecognition

JointlyAccepted

Procedures ofRecognition

10

Page 11: The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and …...1 The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and regulatory policy framework Presentation by Dr. Andreas Schwarz* European

Facing Large CA Deficits

• Large current account imbalances –

relative to GDP – will become a problem

– Large CA deficits have to be corrected by

restrictive fiscal policy (fall of government

real consumption or public investment or rise

of income tax rate or value added tax rate;

measures which are not popular:

• Y –[C(..)+G+I(..)=Xnet; Xnet is net export of goods

– If CA deficit cannot be reduced very quickly

IMF loans might be necessary

• IMF support is conditional; e.g. will require to

improve productivity, raise income tax rate 11

Page 12: The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and …...1 The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and regulatory policy framework Presentation by Dr. Andreas Schwarz* European

• Trade impediments:

– Import tariffs (at least relative price signals

still working); or export tariffs

– Quantitativ restrictions = worst: welfare loss

– Technical restrictions,

– Local content requirements

• For small country optimum import tariff=0

• For big economy optimum tariff >0; EU is

big country; import tariff>0 causes

excess supply in world market, world

market price p* falls = advantage for EU12

Page 13: The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and …...1 The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and regulatory policy framework Presentation by Dr. Andreas Schwarz* European

• Will the EU – or any other regional

integration club (eg NAFTA, ASEAN –

both are free trade areas – or MERCOSUR

etc.) become more protectionist as more

member countries join?

• A) Role of EU trade policy (policymakers)

• B) Role of industry interest; if mainly

MNCs import intermediate products = no

big interest in import tariffs

• C) Role of World Trade Organization WTO13

Page 14: The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and …...1 The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and regulatory policy framework Presentation by Dr. Andreas Schwarz* European

Free Trade Area =Stumbling Bloc vs. Building Bloc• Regional integration could be

• A) stumbling blocs for global regional trade?

logic of optimum tariff which is zero for

small economy; EXPLANATION is that only

big economy could reduce world market

price if import tariff imposed (welfare gain!)

• B) building blocs for global regional trade:

good example of cutting intra-regional tariffs

= impulse for global trade liberalization; EU

eastern enlargement = trade diversion for

Russia but EU27 has +growth=imports grow!

• WTO: There are regular Trade Policy

Reviews – read the review of the EU14

Page 15: The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and …...1 The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and regulatory policy framework Presentation by Dr. Andreas Schwarz* European

Welfare loss from subsidy (partial

equilibrium analysis): imports will fall

• The initial supply curve is shifted down-

wards (subsidy rate is s‘); domestic

production increased and imported

quantity is falling (distance G‘F instead of

GF under free trade)

15

Page 16: The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and …...1 The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and regulatory policy framework Presentation by Dr. Andreas Schwarz* European

Import Tariff

16

P

P0

SS0

DD0

q

G F

E

P

P1

P0

SS0

E

J K P*

0(1+τ’)

q

P*0 F H G

DD0

q0s q1

s q1

d q0

d

Area JKIH is tariff revenue

I

Page 17: The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and …...1 The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and regulatory policy framework Presentation by Dr. Andreas Schwarz* European

Protectionism

• Import protecionism is coming up in periods

of sectoral crisis or economy-wide recession

• Import tariffs imposed in sector i, lobbying

by sector j to also impose import tariff =

increase of negative welfare effects = reduction of real income = induced fall of imports

• Quantitative restrictions are worst in terms

of welfare lass („improvement“ is to switch

from quantitative restriction towards import

tariff = price signal is still working (and

redeced welfare loss)17

Page 18: The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and …...1 The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and regulatory policy framework Presentation by Dr. Andreas Schwarz* European

Vertical Trade etc.

• Increasing share of global trade is trade

in intermediate products = reflecting

the splitting up of value-added chain

across space and countries,

respectively = force contra import

tariffs (multinational companies which

dominate trade in intermediate

products push for free trade in many

countries)

• Intra-industrial trade dominates in

OECD countries 18

Page 19: The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and …...1 The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and regulatory policy framework Presentation by Dr. Andreas Schwarz* European

Macro Perspective (General

Equilibrium) of Tariff Protectionism

• 1) Free trade = specialization gains for

country I and II (in two country model) =

real income gain for country I and II

• 2) Import tariffs reduce trade volume =

reduction of specialization gains; if

many sectors impose import tariffs

there will be fall of real income and this

shifts demand curve in all markets to

the left so that imports reduce further

(=fall of exports of country II so that Y*

in country is falling!) 19

Page 20: The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and …...1 The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and regulatory policy framework Presentation by Dr. Andreas Schwarz* European

Trade, Imports and Subsidies

(s‘ is the subsidy rate); Imports fall to G‘F

20

Page 21: The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and …...1 The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and regulatory policy framework Presentation by Dr. Andreas Schwarz* European

Subsidization under Flexible Exchange

Rates• Subsidy for domestic industry reduces

import value; net exports therefore will

increase = nominal appreciation of the

currency

• Appreciation reduces the costs of

imports in all sectors so that subsidy has

unclear effect on current account

• Subsidy has to be financed through

higher taxes; subsidy would be justified

only if the respective sector has positive

externality (e.g. through innovation) 21

Page 22: The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and …...1 The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and regulatory policy framework Presentation by Dr. Andreas Schwarz* European

Trade and Specialization

• Countries (firms) specialize in accordance

with comparative advantage [Ricardo]

• Countries can be classified according to

factor endowment:

– High ratio K/L (capital intensity k:=K/L); say

EU or US or Japan; production of

automotives is capital intensive, production

of textiles is labor intensive

– Low ratio K*/L* (* for foreign countries); e.g.

China [but China‘s government also

intervenes: e.g. China builds air & space

products for „strategic reasons“] 22

Page 23: The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and …...1 The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and regulatory policy framework Presentation by Dr. Andreas Schwarz* European

Opening up of economies (Heckscher-Ohlin Approach;

assumes idential technologies in both countries, 2 sectors, 2

production factors – say labor and capital: 2x2x2 model!)

Openingup

• Structural Change in country I

• Capital intensive production of good i in country I will increaseand it will be exported, output of good j falls

Country II

• The country with relatively low capital intensity will specialize in labor intensive products; these will be exported

• Structural change in country II as well

NOTE

• Note: Assumption in Heckscher-Ohlin approach is that there isfactor (e.g. labor) mobility within each country (across sectors), but not across countries

• In reality technologies across countries differ (not in OECD!?)

23

Page 24: The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and …...1 The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and regulatory policy framework Presentation by Dr. Andreas Schwarz* European

Governments have an impact on

specialization and thus on trade

Institutions (& rules)

promotingforeign directinvestmentinflows (and

outflows)

Governmentpromotion of

R&D.

There could berestrictions in

market accessof foreign firms

Geographyalso matters:

size of country(import for

economies ofscale sectors)

24

Page 25: The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and …...1 The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and regulatory policy framework Presentation by Dr. Andreas Schwarz* European

Trade Policy Review (Report by EU)

• EU adopted in 2010 programme Europe 2020

which is kind of follow up on Lisbon

Agenda 2010 program (from 2000)

• There are 7 specific flagship initiatives:– 1) Digital Agenda for Europe

– 2) Innovation Union

– 3) Youth on the Move

– 4) An agenda for new skills and jobs (labor market reforms)

– 5) European platform against poverty and social exclusion

– 6) An integrated industrial policy for the globalisation era

– 7) A resource-efficient Europe

Read EU Annual Economic Report 2005 (on globalization)25

Page 26: The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and …...1 The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and regulatory policy framework Presentation by Dr. Andreas Schwarz* European

26

Contents1. Theoretical Starting Points

2. Institutional Aspects – EU2020

3. A few facts about World Trade

4. The EU in world trade

5. Trade policy – The WTO context

6. EU Trade Policy - Basic features

5. Trade defence instruments

7. EU Trade Policy - How it works

8. EU Trade Policy – Outlook

Page 27: The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and …...1 The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and regulatory policy framework Presentation by Dr. Andreas Schwarz* European

27

1. A few facts about World Trade

Page 28: The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and …...1 The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and regulatory policy framework Presentation by Dr. Andreas Schwarz* European

28

IMPLICATIONS

• Opportunities for growth, but disruptive effects

• Need for global governance -> multilateral rules and institutions to

ensure level playing field and better distribution of benefits

• Need to reinforce the competitive position of the EU economy

GLOBALISATIONTECHNOLOGICAL TRADE

DEVELOPMENTS OPENING

Page 29: The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and …...1 The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and regulatory policy framework Presentation by Dr. Andreas Schwarz* European

29

Evolution of world trade

0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

14.000

2000 2005

Evolution of world trade : 2000-2005(world trade = exports + imports, except intra-EU trade)

So urces: Euro stat , OM C

Bn €

World PVD EU

Page 30: The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and …...1 The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and regulatory policy framework Presentation by Dr. Andreas Schwarz* European

3030

But now new context

• Globalisation and economic downturn

– Global growth : 0.5% (IMF)

– Global trade to fall : 2.8% (IMF)

– EU GDP to fall -2.5%

– EU exports down 3.5% (Nov) / Japan 35%

• Collapse in trade finance

• Trade is part of the solution?

– G20 commitment

– WTO monitoring

Page 31: The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and …...1 The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and regulatory policy framework Presentation by Dr. Andreas Schwarz* European

31

2. The EU in World Trade

Page 32: The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and …...1 The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and regulatory policy framework Presentation by Dr. Andreas Schwarz* European

3232

EU remains a trading power…

19% of world trade in 2007,

17% (goods),

27% (services)

First exporterSecond largest

importer

2007 leader in foreign direct

investment:

EU-27 provides €1100 bn (44%)

and recieves € 1100 bn (32%) in

2007.

A MAJOR

TRADING POWER

Page 33: The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and …...1 The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and regulatory policy framework Presentation by Dr. Andreas Schwarz* European

33

Page 34: The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and …...1 The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and regulatory policy framework Presentation by Dr. Andreas Schwarz* European

3434

The EU in world trade –

10 major EU import partners (2008)

1. China

2. USA

3. Russia

4. Norway

5. Switzerland

6. Japan

7. Turkey

8. Korea

9. Brazil

10.Libya

16%

12%

11%

6%

5%

5%

3%

3%

2%

2%

Page 35: The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and …...1 The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and regulatory policy framework Presentation by Dr. Andreas Schwarz* European

3535

The EU in world trade 2007Share of (current) GDP in World GDP

Page 36: The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and …...1 The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and regulatory policy framework Presentation by Dr. Andreas Schwarz* European

36

2. The EU in world trade

A MAJOR

TRADING

POWER

Others

49,4%

China

8,9%

Japan

7,0%

United

States

17,2%

EU25

17,5%

SHARE IN WORLD TRADE IN GOODS (2005)

EU25

26,0%

United

States

18,4%Japan

6,9%

China

3,8%

Others

44,9%

SHARE IN WORLD TRADE IN SERVICES (2005)

Source: Eurostat

Page 37: The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and …...1 The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and regulatory policy framework Presentation by Dr. Andreas Schwarz* European

37

EU Foreign Direct Investments by region in 2004

2. The EU in world trade

Page 38: The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and …...1 The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and regulatory policy framework Presentation by Dr. Andreas Schwarz* European

38

57

3

30

40

26

5

6

6

0

135

21

60

64

36

4

6

8

8

MANUFACTURING

Machinery

Transport

equipment

Chemicals

Textiles and

clothing

Iron and steel

Paper and articles

of papers

Non-metal.mineral

manuf.

Other products

1999

2004

Source: Eurostat, by Sitc groupings

Trade Balance (Billions euros)

Page 39: The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and …...1 The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and regulatory policy framework Presentation by Dr. Andreas Schwarz* European

39

Ratio quality products / exports (%)

Good performance in high-quality products

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Japan

EU15

USA

Emer

ging m

arke

ts India

Russia

Brazil

China

Source: Cepii

Page 40: The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and …...1 The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and regulatory policy framework Presentation by Dr. Andreas Schwarz* European

40

Source: Eurostat, IMF, all products in value, excluding intra-EU trade

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

EU25

USA

Japan

China

Market shares trends in world trade (%)

Page 41: The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and …...1 The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and regulatory policy framework Presentation by Dr. Andreas Schwarz* European

41

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

EU25

USA

Japon

Chine

Comparative trade balance trends (bn euros)

Source: Eurostat, IMF all products in value, excluding intra-EU trade

Page 42: The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and …...1 The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and regulatory policy framework Presentation by Dr. Andreas Schwarz* European

42

EU trade not focused enough on rapidly

growing markets

% of total exports to more/less

rapidly growing markets

Contribution to

growth in world

imports

1995-2002US Japon EU25

10 most rapidly

growing markets

79% 76% 48% 93%

20 least rapidly

growing markets

8% 12% 13% -5%

Source: Cepii

Page 43: The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and …...1 The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and regulatory policy framework Presentation by Dr. Andreas Schwarz* European

From the EU Trade Policy Review 2011

• After the strong

recession 2009

EU economy

rebounded;

growth rate of

2010 was 1,8%

• EU external

merchandise trade

(excl. Intra-EU) grew

by 23% in 2010,

following the previous

decline of 20% in 2009

• Top 4 merch. export

countries of EU: US,

China, Switzerland,

Russia; on import

side China is No. 1

(deficit € 108 bill.)

• EU stood for 26%

of global trade in

commercial

services in 2009:

surplus € 64 bill. 43

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44

3. Trade policy – The WTO context

Page 45: The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and …...1 The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and regulatory policy framework Presentation by Dr. Andreas Schwarz* European

45

6. EU Trade policy - WTO context

Global governance & the role of the EU

Trade Pillar WTO 1 state/

1 vote

EU, member key

actor

Financial

Pillar

Bretton

Woods,

IFIs + BIS

1 dollar/

1 vote

EU indirect role

(MS on the board)

Normative

Pillar

ILO, MEAs,

WHO, FAO,

Codex

Alimentarius

ITU, WIPO...

1 state/

1 vote

EU member,

participant or

observer

Page 46: The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and …...1 The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and regulatory policy framework Presentation by Dr. Andreas Schwarz* European

46

6. EU Trade policy - WTO contextThe core of the multilateral rule-

based system

Unique forum for trade negotiations, rule setting, resolution

of disagreements

Objectives

– To boost

international

economic growth

– To ensure business

confidence

Functioning

Consensus = each

country on an equal

footing

Core principles

– No country may apply quantitative

restrictions or similar measures

– Non-discrimination - ‘Most Favoured

Nation’ principle

– National Treatment - no country may

discriminate between its own products and

imported products

– Transparency - all rules affecting trade must

be transparent; publication, notification,

discussion, trade policy reviews

Page 47: The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and …...1 The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and regulatory policy framework Presentation by Dr. Andreas Schwarz* European

47

6. EU Trade policy - WTO context

Membership

– Quasi universal: 149

member countries

– Covers 95% of world

trade

Regulatory framework

– Trade pillar of global

governance

– Rounds and

agreements

Enforcement controlled by

Dispute Settlement Mechanism

– All WTO members can seek

redress

– Dispute Settlement Body (DSB)

rulings are binding

– DSB may authorise retaliation

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48

6. EU Trade policy - WTO context

Key Facts on use of the WTO Dispute Settlement System

The United States V

• 84 cases brought in the WTO

• Around 21 against the EU

• 10 of the cases v. the EU won or solved, success rate of 48%.

The European Union V

• 73 cases brought in the WTO

• Around 30 against the US

• 18 of the cases v. the US won or solved, success rate of 60%.

The statistics show a rough parity between EU/US use

of the Dispute Settlement System, but that the EU has

a higher success rate

N.B. Cases settled are considered as "won" by the complainant when a mutually agreed solution is notified or the complainant otherwise acknowledges that it considers the issue solved. Cases that go through litigation are considered as "won" when the complainant prevails in at least one of the claims.

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49

4. EU Trade policy – Basic features

Page 50: The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and …...1 The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and regulatory policy framework Presentation by Dr. Andreas Schwarz* European

50

Objectives and accountability

Being the leading trade region

Strong interest in:

� Open markets

� Clear regulatory frameworks

Responsibility to:

� EU citizens

� Rest of the World

Need to reinforce EU

competitiveness on world

markets

Page 51: The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and …...1 The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and regulatory policy framework Presentation by Dr. Andreas Schwarz* European

5151

TRADE POLICY AGENDA :

GLOBAL EUROPE – Global Trade Talks (Doha Development Round)

– A new relationship with developing countries

(particularly ACP)

– Bilateral Trade Agreements

• Korea, ASEAN, India, Central America, Andean

Community, Ukraine, Euromed,

• Mercusor, Gulf States, Libya, China

– Strategic partners

• Russia, China, Brazil

– Defending European interests

– Promoting European values

Page 52: The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and …...1 The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and regulatory policy framework Presentation by Dr. Andreas Schwarz* European

52

The EU’s external trade policy contributes to

Europe’s competitiveness in foreign markets.

Being an open economy, the EU aims at securing

improved market access for its industries,

services and investments, as well as enforcing

the rules of free and fair trade (intellectual

property rights, trade defence rulesV)

(Commission Communication on «Global Europe:

Competing in the World» of 4 Oct. 2006)

Page 53: The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and …...1 The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and regulatory policy framework Presentation by Dr. Andreas Schwarz* European

53

The three levels of EU Trade policy

Multilateral Bilateral/Regional

Unilateral

3

DIMENSIONS

Page 54: The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and …...1 The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and regulatory policy framework Presentation by Dr. Andreas Schwarz* European

54

3. EU Trade policy - basic features

Multilateral

Mostly implemented in the framework of the WTO (= the most

effective means of managing trade) aiming at promoting market

access with rules, in the context of effective global governance.

Including the promotion of EU values :

• Environmental concerns

• Food safety

• Cultural diversity

• R and how to promote core labour standards ?

Page 55: The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and …...1 The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and regulatory policy framework Presentation by Dr. Andreas Schwarz* European

55

6. EU Trade policy - WTO context

The Doha Development Agenda

A round of trade negotiations launched in 2001

– To pursue market opening

– To strengthen rules, improve global governance

– To integrate developing countries in world trade

Development - a key

component of the

WTO round

A development round

– Special and Differential Treatment

– Addressing developing countries’ concerns

– Aid for Trade

– Special measures for LDCs

Page 56: The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and …...1 The EU's external competitiveness: The trade and regulatory policy framework Presentation by Dr. Andreas Schwarz* European

56

6. EU Trade policy - WTO context

The 3 legs of the DDA

Regulatory framework

Improving existing rules (e.g. anti-dumping,

geographical indications) and creating new rules

(e.g. “trade facilitation”)

Opening markets

– Agricultural goods

– Industrial goods

– Services

EU seeks real new MA

Development

Sustainable development (to respond to concerns of developing countries and civil society)

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5757

The Doha Development Round (DDA)

The big questions

• Where are we today?

• Will this make a difference for

development?

• Will this be a good deal?

• And will we get there in the end?

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5858

Bilateral relations (FTAs)

Context

• Globally more than 200 FTAs

– (36% of global trade).

• FTAs top up what can be done in WTO.

• ‘extended’ regionalism

The big questions

• Impact on the WTO system?

• Spaghetti bowl effect?

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3. EU Trade policy - basic features

Bilateral/regional

In addition to the WTO's multilateral negotiations, the EU concludes

bilateral agreements with third countries and regional areas. 121

countries potentially linked to the EU by regional trade agreements,

many negotiated in the 1990s.

EU policy rationale for bilateral agreements

• Trade expansion and

rules-making (WTO+)

• Fostering

development and...

• R promoting regional

development

Key EU bilateral agreements include:

• Economic Partnership Agreements in negotiation with ACP countries (Cotonou)

• Free Trade Agreements with EFTA, EEA, Euromed, Mercosur (in negotiation), Mexico, South Africa...

• Customs Unions with Turkey, Andorra and San Marino

• Partnership and Cooperation Agreements with Russia and Ukraine

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3. EU Trade policy - basic features

Unilateral

The EU implements unilateral measures as an additional trade policy

instrument in the interests of development and/or political stability in

line with the Union’s key political priorities:

General System of

Preferences (GSP): the classic

instrument for fostering

development is by granting tariff

preferences. Grants products

imported from GSP beneficiary

countries either duty-free

access or a tariff reduction.

“Everything But Arms” initiative

(EBA): a special GSP

arrangement for the least

developed countries. Grants

duty-free access to imports of all

products from LDCs without any

quantitative restrictions (except to

arms and munitions).

Asymmetrical preferences e.g.

for the Balkans and Moldova, with

the aim of ensuring peace,

stability, freedom and economic

prosperity in the region.

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3. EU Trade policy - basic featuresThe EU is the most open market for poor countries

178 developing countries and territories are beneficiaries of the EU’s GSP.

In 2003, EU imports benefiting from GSP preferences amounted to €50 billion. Bangladesh leading beneficiary country followed by China, Pakistan, Brazil, Malaysia and India.

The 49 Least Developed Countries (EBA -"Everything But Arms") benefit from duty-free and quota–free access for practically all exports of originating products to the EU for an unlimited period of time.

The GSP is implemented following cycles of 10 years, providing stability to traders and economic operators. New guidelines for 2006-2015 prepared.

Key Facts on the General

System of Preferences

(GSP)

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3. EU Trade Policy – basic features

New GSP system 2006-2015 : simplifies graduationmechanism and reduces the system to 3 schemes

• General scheme: increase of product coverage from 6900 to

7200 (mainly agriculture and fishery sector of interest for

developing countries).

• Special scheme for Least Developed Countries: Everything But

Arms.

• New special GSP+ for vulnerable countries = duty free on 7200

products if the country meets criteria :

• Ratification and implementation of 27 key international

conventions

• Few benefits under the GSP

• A poorly diversified economy.

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3. EU Trade policy - basic features

The reduced rate

provisions of the

GSP

Special incentive arrangementshonour beneficiary countries’ efforts to comply with certain internationally agreed environmental and labour standards. Meant to foster sustainable development by providing additional trade preferences. Provide a reduction of a further 5 %.

The GSP provides tariff reductions without quantitative limitations. Reductions are modulated according to the sensitivity of products. While non-sensitive products enter the EU market duty free, the rate for sensitive products, with some exceptions, is reduced by a flat rate of 3.5 %.

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Who are we negotiating with?

Economic Partnership (EPAs) with ACP

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5. Trade defence instruments

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EU Trade policy – standing up for

European Interests

The trade defence instruments

“Defensive” instruments to ensure fair trade and defend the interests of European companiesO

... have been designed in line with specific WTO agreements recognising the right of members to counter unfair practices:

SafeguardsAnti-dumping Anti-subsidy

– Cutting edge of globalisation debate

– Green Paper Review exercise 2006-2007

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4. EU Trade policy - How it works

The trade defence instruments

“Defensive” instruments to ensure fair trade and defend the interests of European companiesO

... have been designed in line with specific WTO agreements recognising the right of members to counter unfair practices:

Safeguards: A WTO member may

restrict imports of a product temporarily

if its domestic industry is seriously

injured or threatened with injury

caused by a surge in imports.

Anti-dumping measures created to

counter dumping practices, the most

frequently encountered trade-distorting

practices. Dumping occurs when

manufacturers from a non-EU country

sell goods in the EU below the sales

price in their domestic market, or below

the cost of production.

Anti-subsidy measures designed to

combat subsidies, which are made

available to manufacturers by public

authorities and which can also distort

trade when they help to reduce

production costs or cut the prices of

exports to the EU unfairly.

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4. EU Trade policy - How it works

The trade defence instruments

Since 1995, EC AD/AS activity is stable, with yearly fluctuations

• For the past 10 years, the EU was the n°3 global initiator of new AD/AS investigations

• Top of the league is India (over 400 cases) then the US (over 300) and EU (over 200).

In terms of the principal users by AD/AS measures in force, the EU ranks 3rd behind the US and India.

Most EU AD/AS cases initiated over the last 10 years were in the iron & steel, chemicals & allied, textiles & electronic products sectors.

Only 0.45% of total imports of goods into the EU are covered by AD/AS measures.

The biggest target of AD/AS measures is China. The EU is ranked in 2nd place.

Key Facts on Anti-

Dumping (AD) and

Anti-subsidy (AS)

activity(as at 31/12/2005)

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4. EU Trade policy - How it works

“Offensive” instruments to open markets and eliminate obstacles to trade...

O across the multilateral, bilateral and unilateral fronts:

The Trade Barriers Regulation (TBR) gives EU industry the opportunity to

lodge a complaint with the Commission when encountering trade barriers

that restrict their access to third country markets. The TBR is then used to

investigate whether there is evidence of violation of international trade

rules, resulting in adverse trade effects - this could lead to the initiation of

the WTO dispute settlement mechanism.

Market Access Strategy of which the EU’s Market Access Database

provides: information about market access conditions in non-EU

countries; a systematic way for the Commission to follow up complaints

from business about barriers to trade in non-EU countries; and a means of

ensuring that our trading partners abide by their international

commitments.

The offensive trade policy

instruments

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4. EU Trade policy - How it works

Monitoring of third country trade defence measures:

• Ensuring third countries do not misuse the trade defence

instruments (anti-dumping, anti-subsidy, safeguard) against

EU exporters.

• Given the overall escalating use of these instruments

important that there is full compliance with international rules.

• The Commission provides information and advice to all

interested parties, identifies individual and systemic

infringements of WTO rules by third countries, addresses

these issues in the appropriate bilateral or multilateral forum.

The offensive trade policy

instruments

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4. EU Trade policy - How it works

The trade policy instruments

Towards a new generation of FTAs: “WTO++”

• Opening markets for trade in goods

• + investments, services, rule-

making, standards, non tariff

measures

>> EU-Chile an example

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5. EU trade policy – how it works

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Historic development

From tariffs and

quotas...

V to “behind the

border” issues

The new shape of trade policy

Developed from trade liberalisation in goodsR

R to services and rules on investment, intellectual

property, public procurement

Evolution reflected in the Treaty of Nice (2001)

Extended the EU trade competence to services and

commercial aspects of intellectual property rights with qualified

majority voting

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The EC Treaty establishes the overall aims and

objectives of EU trade policy:

How it works NOW

Article 2 sets the general aims – including to promote

the development of economic activities, high employment

and competitiveness, and environmental protection.

Articles 131 and 133 explain the way the common commercial

policy shall operate in principle – “to contribute, in the common

interest, to the harmonious development of world trade, the

progressive abolition of restrictions on international trade and the

lowering of customs barriers”, instruments and scope.” Article 133

sets out the scope, instruments and decision-making procedures.

Article 300 establishes the current inter-institutional procedure for

concluding international agreements – principally by the Council, not

legally obliged to consult the European Parliament on trade agreements,

but consultations do, however, take place.

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4

Article 133 of the EC Treaty provides in more detail for

the common commercial policy

Rests on:

• Shared, uniform concept

of policy

• A decision-making

process based on a

mixture of ‘exclusive and

shared competences’

Comprises:

• Trade in goods, services

and trade-related aspects

of intellectual property

rights

• Special provisions for

specific fields (e.g.

audiovisual, cultural, educational,

social and health services)

How it works NOW

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The negotiating process

The Commission is the negotiator

• On behalf of the 25 Member States

The Council is the decision maker

• Mandate = determined by the Council on the basis of a

Commission proposal

• The Commission negotiates on the basis of this mandate

• The Council approves the result of the negotiation (generally by

qualified majority)

The European Parliament

• Is informed by the Commission of trade policy developments

• Gives “assent” on major treaty ratifications (covering more than

trade)

How it works NOW

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How it could change …

PROPOSALS IN

THE EU

CONSTITUTION

To extend the

scope of trade

policy to all

foreign direct

investment

Further extension of qualified majority voting for trade agreements

To increase parliamentary control: co-decision for all autonomous acts of legislative nature, assent for major trade agreements

EP to be

informed of

negotiations like

Member States

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A comparison between the EU and the US

• Exclusive EU

competence

• Council acts on the

basis of QMV

• Member States usually

stick to common line

• Congressional

constitutional

responsibility, “leased

back” to Administration

• Congressional ‘fast

track’ procedure time-

limited, politicised

• Community

mandate from

Council

• European

Parliament only plays

a limited role (but due

to change)

Congress retains

final say thanks to

constitutional

responsibility

Legal texts quite

complicated following

the adoption of the

Treaty of Nice

Political debate over

Trade Promotion

Authority (adopted in

2001) heightened

public awareness,

allowed debate on

trade policy priorities

Efficiency Transparency Legitimacy

EU

US

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7. EU Trade Policy – Outlook

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• Multilateral vs. Plurilateral vs. The

bilateral track

• How to deal with China?

• Transatlantic economic area?

• The use of trade defence instruments?

• Are EPA‘s working?

• Decision-making in case of Lisbon

treaty

• Regulatory co-operation


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