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Climate Action The EU's INDC: a fair and ambitious contribution Lucie Berger, European Commission [email protected]
Climate Action
The EU's INDC: a fair and ambitious contribution
Lucie Berger, European Commission [email protected]
Climate Action
Staying below 2°C through global action
Source: Climate Action Tracker
Warming projected by 2100 Baselines 4.1- 4.8 °C Current policy projections 3.6 – 4.2 ° C With EU, US, CN pledges 2.9 – 3.1 ° C Below 2 C: 1.5 – 1.7 ° C Below 1.5 C: 1.3 – 1.5 ° C
Climate Action
EU – challenges and opportunities
3
High energy import
dependence
Open, trading economy
Importance of energy intensive
industries
Advanced knowledge economy
Emissions trading system
Regional and global
leadership
Climate Action
EU action is delivering: Emissions going down since 1979…
Emission reductions (EU-28 and Iceland): • Total emissions
(without LULUCF) in 2012 are 21.7% below base year levels
• Projected to be around 24,5% below base year levels in 2020.
• Over the period 2008-2012, the average annual emissions are 18.8% below base year levels
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4.000
4.200
4.400
4.600
4.800
5.000
5.200
5.400
5.600
5.800
KP
BY
19
90
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91
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93
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Mt
CO
2 e
qu
iva
len
t
EU-28 +IS historic emissions EU-28 projections With Existing Measures
estimated overachievement compared to target 2013-20 Target for the 1st commitment period (2008–2012)
Target for the 2nd commitment period (2013–2020)
CP1 Kyoto Mechanisms
CP1 C.sinks
4.2 GtCO2 eq
1.3 GtCO2 eq
5.5 GtCO2 eq
Potential Overachievement CP2:
Total :
Potential Overachievement CP1:
Climate Action
…2030 target with additional benefits
• Fuel savings: additional € 18 billion fuel per year next 2 decades • Energy security: additional 11% cut in energy imports in 2030 • Innovation: jobs & growth • Health and air pollution benefits: €7-13.5 billion in 2030
Reductions vs 2005:
ETS -43%
Non ETS -30%
• Decoupling of Gross Domestic Product growth from Greenhouse Gas Emissions will continue
Climate Action
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Elements relevant for EU INDC
Type Absolute reduction from base year
Coverage Economy wide
Scope CO2, methane, nitrous oxide, F-gases
Base year 1990
Period 2021-2030 inclusive
Reduction level At least 40% in 2030
Agriculture, forestry, other land uses included
Yes
% of Emissions covered 100%
Net Contribution of International Market Based Mechanisms
No contribution from international credits.
Planning process EUCO Oct.2014; legislative proposals
Fair and ambitious In-line with transition to a low emissions economy. Consistent with IPCC's assessment of reductions required from developed countries as a group of 80-95% by 2050. EU emissions peaked already.
Climate Action
2030 Framework for Climate and Energy
2020
2030
New governance system + indicators
-20 % Greenhouse
Gas Emissions
20% Renewable
Energy
20 % Energy
Efficiency
- 40 % Greenhouse Gas
Emissions
27 % Renewable
Energy
27%* Energy
Efficiency
10 % Interconnection
15 % Interconnection
* To be reviewed by 2020, having in mind an EU level of 30%
Climate Action
EU ETS
• Market stability reserve
• 2030 target: -43% compared to 2005
• Applicable to power sector, manufacturing industry
• Innovation fund: 400 mio EUAs for renewables, CCS, industry
• Modernisation fund: around 300 mio EUAs for energy systems in lower income Member States
• Optional free allocation to power sector: continued for lower income Member States
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Climate Action
Emission reductions in the non-ETS: targets and principles
• 2030 target: -30% compared to 2005
• Applicable to transport, households, agriculture
• Member State targets range between 0% and -40%
• Target setting guided by GDP/capita, supplemented by cost effectiveness criteria
• LULUCF to be integrated
Climate Action
Sourc
e:
Euro
sta
t
Renewable sources accounted for 14% of the EU final energy consumption in 2013 10
Renewable energy sources
Climate Action
Energy efficiency: EU 2030 target: at least 27% of energy savings
1.854 Mtoe 1.887 Mtoe
1.542 Mtoe
1.490 Mtoe
1.369 Mtoe
1.713 Mtoe
1.307 Mtoe
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Prim
ary
energ
y c
onsum
ption (
Gro
ss I
nla
nd
consum
ption -
non-e
nerg
y u
ses)
in M
toe
2020 and 2030 energy savings targets
2007 Reference scenario
2013 Reference scenario
Energy efficiency target of 27%
Energy efficiency target of 30%
20% energy saving target in 2020 16-18% energy savings projected to be achieved
Climate Action
Conclusions
Fairness and ambition are achievable and necessary
Secure a participatory and facilitative reflection prior to Paris – a stocktake of adequacy of aggregate international efforts
Establish progressive coalitions around key issues including wide participation, inclusiveness, fairness, dynamism and accountability
Save multilateralism
