Who we are
What we plan to discuss today
Provide an empirical backbone to support the rest of the day
Understand who uses Facebook, and how this has changed over time
Consider how Facebook differs from rival “networking” services
Assess whether empirical evidence supports many of the frequently asserted hypotheses
Young under
graduates Female
Most popular
‘Stealing’ share from other sites
Affluent Losing its novelty
Our data comes from Nielsen//Netratings
Nielsen//Netrating’s ‘Netview’ service
Panel based data
Approximately 40,000 panelists
Directional not absolute
UK only
Facebook’s reach has grown by over 1800% over the last year
Monthly unique audience [000s]
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
Sep 06
Oct 06
Nov 06
Dec 06
Jan 07
Feb 07
Mar 07
Apr 07
May 07
Jun 07
Jul 07
Aug 07
Sep 07
Facebook ‘reach’ is now 23% of the active UK internet population
Between February and August, reach grew by over 20% each month –
in September this slowed to 15%
• Over the same time, overall internet ‘reach’ has only grown by 11%
Based on number of unique users, it is the 13th most popular site in the UK
SiteUnique users
(Sep 07)Active reach
27.9m 84%
22.3m 67%
16.4m 50%
16.4m 50%
14.7m 44%
10.3m 31%
10.0m 30%
9.4m 28%
9.4m 28%
8.8m 26%
8.7m 26%
8.6m 26%
7.5m 23%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Source: Nielsen//Netratings, September 2007
• However, Facebook is still not ‘mainstream’ - 77% of the active UK internet population did not visit the site in September
However, based on web pages viewed, it is the 3rd most popular site
SiteTotal page
views (millions)Page views/
person
3,956 142
3,500 240
3,243 434
2,281 122
2,071 130
1,619 262
1,521 347
1,386 85
723 77
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
• Facebook has the 11th highest average page views per user – the highest excluding gaming, gambling and adult sites
• This clearly has significant implications for a predominantly display advertising funded site
Source: Nielsen//Netratings, September 2007
Hypothesis 1:Facebook is used predominantly by
young undergraduates
The majority of usage growth has been for 25 to 34 year olds
% of pages viewed by age group
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Aug06
Sep06
Oct06
Nov06
Dec06
Jan07
Feb07
Mar07
Apr07
May07
Jun07
Jul07
Aug07
Sep07
65+50-64
35-49
25-34
18-24
2-17
• In August 2006, 18-24 year olds were responsible for over 80% of page views
• In August 2007, they were responsible for 24%
• In August 2006, under 1% of all page views
were by 25-34 year olds
• In August 2007, they were responsible for
52%
Source: Nielsen//Netratings
The average age of a Facebook user (weighted by reach) is now almost 34
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07
Average audience age (by reach)
Weighted by reach
Weighted by usage
Source: Nielsen//Netratings, September 2007
However, Facebook’s audience is still younger than all other top 20 UK sites (ranked by reach), bar Myspace and YouTube
Microsoft
Yahoo!
BBC
eBay
Amazon
Apple
Wikipedia
YouTube
Real NetworkAOL Media Network
Ask Search Network
Myspace.com
Lycos Europe
PayPal
Virgin Media
Multimap.com
Tesco
BSkyB
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46
Average age (ranked by usage)
Average age (ranked by reach)
Used disproportionately more by younger audiences
• NB: Bubble size represents unique audience size (Sept 2007)
Source: Nielsen//Netratings, September 2007
Hypothesis 2:Facebook use is
drivenby females
Facebook has a disproportionately high female skew, although there are significant gender skews amongst most networking sites
GoogleMicrosoftYahoo!BBCeBayAmazonAppleWikipediaYouTubeReal NetworkAOL Media NetworkAsk Search NetworkFacebookMyspace.comLycos EuropePayPalVirgin MediaMultimap.comTesco BSkyBbeboFriends ReunitedFacePartyHi5Linkedin
6% more female 22% more female
Composition Index by reach
Composition Index by usage
Male Female Male Female
Site
Source: Nielsen//Netratings, September 2007
And young females in particular demonstrate heavy usage
Female 65+
Female 50 - 64
Female 35 - 49
Female 25 - 34
Female 18 - 24
Female 12 - 17 Male 65+
Male 50 - 64
Male 35 - 49
Male 25 - 34
Male 18 - 24
Male 12 - 17
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
Average Page Views Per Month
Number of unique users (millions)
Young females use the site disproportionately more than their male
counterparts
Source: Nielsen//Netratings, September 2007
Hypothesis 3:Facebook is
the most popular networking site
Based on ‘reach’, Facebook is now clearly the most popular ‘networking’ site
Monthly unique users [000s]
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Nov06
Dec06
Jan07
Feb07
Mar07
Apr07
May07
Jun07
Jul07
Aug07
Sep07
• Facebook became the most popular networking site by ‘reach’ in August 2007
Source: Nielsen//Netratings
However, based on usage - page views and total time spent - Facebook became the most popular ‘networking’ site much earlier
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Total number of page views (millions)
Nov06
Jan07
Mar07
May07
Jul07
Sep07
Nov06
Jan07
Mar07
May07
Jul07
Sep07
Total number of minutes online (millions)
Facebook became the most popular networking site by total usage in June 2007
• In September 2007, Facebook had more page views and number of minutes spent online than Myspace and Bebo combined
Page Views
Time Spent
Source: Nielsen//Netratings
Facebook is the most popular ‘networking’ site for all groups, except the very young, and middle aged men, where Myspace is still incumbent
674917F 65+
349438199F 50-64
804971549F 35-49
7331275325F 25-34
7571000400F 18-24
469163717F 2-17
10613176M 65+
504662330M 50-64
867800474M 35-49
616998210M 25-34
726879520M 18-24
509199733M 2-17
MyspaceFacebook Bebo
Reach(unique audience in Sept 2007, 000s)
5 13 2F 65+
19 55 44F 50-64
139 275 224F 35-49
135 979 106F 25-34
220 570 191F 18-24
132 16 311F 2-17
6 51 20M 65+
33 155 73M 50-64
493 349 152M 35-49
187 433 58M 25-34
179 339 180M 18-24
101 34 210 M 2-17
MyspaceFacebook Bebo
Usage(page views per month in Sept 2007, ms)
Source: Nielsen//Netratings, September 2007
Hypothesis 4:Facebook is ‘stealing’
share from other social networking
sites
Users of other ‘networking’ sites are more likely to visit Facebook than the wider internet audience
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07
Monthly audience who also visited Facebook (%)
Total active internet
In September 2007, 23% of the active UK internet
audience visited Facebook, compared to 64% of the
active LinkedIn audience
Source: Nielsen//Netratings
The proportion of Facebook users who visit other ‘networking’ sites has broadly fallen over time, and Myspace has arguably been worst hit
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07
Facebook audience
who visited other
networking sites (%)
• This suggests that new users are going straight to Facebook and not to ‘networking’ sites in general.
• This fall in overlap could also include some substitution from Myspace to Facebook
Source: Nielsen//Netratings
Whilst the majority of growth has been additive rather than substitutional, in recent months there has been a relative fall in the proportion of time spent on Myspace and bebo
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
Nov06
Dec06
Jan07
Feb07
Mar07
Apr07
May07
Jun07
Jul07
Aug07
Sep07
% of time online by all users • 6.6% of all time
spent online is spent on the 6 social networking sites
• The proportion of total time Myspace spent has fallen from 2.1% in April to 1.6% in September
• The hypothesis may be trueSource: Nielsen//Netratings
• Time spent on Bebo has also fallen
Hypothesis 5:Facebook is one of the most upmarket social networking
sites
Facebook has a higher proportion of more affluent households than Myspace, bebo, Hi5 and Faceparty, but not notably moreso than for the top 20 sites
0.25
0.35
0.45
0.55
0.65
0.25 0.35 0.45 0.55 0.65 0.75 0.85
Proportion of users with household income > £30k
Proportion of users aged > 35
MicrosoftYahoo!
BBC
eBay
Amazon
Apple
Wikipedia
YouTube
Real Network
AOL Media Network
Ask Search Network
Myspace.com
Lycos Europe
PayPalVirgin Media
Multimap.com
Tesco
BSkyB
bebo
Friends Reunited
FaceParty
Hi5
• LinkedIn has, unsurprisingly, a much older and more affluent audience
Source: Nielsen//Netratings
This has risen marginally over time, higher than the rate of inflation, and considerably more than Myspace
31,000
32,000
33,000
34,000
35,000
36,000
37,000
38,000
39,000
Jan07
Feb07
Mar07
Apr07
May07
Jun07
Jul07
Aug07
Sep07
Average household income (£)
• Facebook’s audience has been consistently more ‘affluent’ than Myspace
• This is perhaps not surprising – over time, Facebook use has grown considerably ‘older’ over time from a comparatively small student-centric core
Source: Nielsen//Netratings
Hypothesis 6:Early adopters are ‘getting bored’ of
The 18-24 age group represent the ‘early adopters’ of Facebook – page views per user from this group have fallen by 43% since March 2007
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Dec06
Jan07
Feb07
Mar07
Apr07
May07
Jun07
Jul07
Aug07
Sep07
Monthly page views per 18-24 year old user
• Facebook page views per month of the 18-24 year old audience have fallen from almost 850 to 487
• Myspace page views per person have fallen by 33% between March and August
Source: Nielsen//Netratings
• Although this may partly be explained by seasonality
However, the next adopters – the 25 to 34 year olds – are continuing to use Facebook more and more
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Dec06
Jan07
Feb07
Mar07
Apr07
May07
Jun07
Jul07
Aug07
Sep07
Monthly page views per 25-34 year old user
• Page views per 25-34 year old user grew to over 700 in Aug 07
• Page views per 25-34 year old Myspace user, however fell by 46% from March to August
Source: Nielsen//Netratings
This suggests there is a ‘life cycle’ in Facebook use
• Usage by age group grows to an extremely high level (700-800+ page views per person per month)
• The experience of 18-24 year old users, however, suggest that over time, this will fall significantly – by as much as 50%
• The initial novelty wears off
• There are fewer new friends to add (or poke!)
• Use becomes increasingly functional
• It is likely that usage patterns for 25-34 year olds will follow a similar trend as their Facebook usage matures
• Myspace, however, is clearly very different
Some final thoughts
Some final thoughts
Reach and use of Facebook has grown extraordinarily over the last year
Facebook is now the UK’s 3rd most popular site based on page views – more than Yahoo, Microsoft and Amazon
It is clearly the most popular networking sites in all cases, except the very young (where Bebo rules) and middle-aged
men (who still prefer Myspace)
Usage of Facebook is heavily skewed towards younger females
The data suggests that there may well be a ‘life cycle’ of Facebook use
About us
Human Capital are a strategic consultancy and research company
We work primarily for media, technology and telecommunications clients
Recent clients include the BBC, IPC Media, The Open University, Johnston Press, UK TV, Ofcom, News
International and lastminute.com
• For more information, please contact:• [email protected]• [email protected]• Or through www.humancapital.co.uk