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The fair valuation problem of guaranteed annuity options: The stochastic mortality environment case Laura Ballotta ,Steven Haberman
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Page 1: The fair valuation problem of guaranteed annuity options: The stochastic mortality environment case Laura Ballotta,Steven Haberman.

The fair valuation problem of guaranteed annuity options:

The stochastic mortality environment case

Laura Ballotta ,Steven Haberman

Page 2: The fair valuation problem of guaranteed annuity options: The stochastic mortality environment case Laura Ballotta,Steven Haberman.

• 1. introduction• 2. A valuation approach for guaranteed annuity

options• 3. A stochastic approach to mortality risk: the

basic model and its extensions• 4. A model for the financial risk and the GAO

valuation formula• 5. Numerical calculations and sensitivity

analysis

Page 3: The fair valuation problem of guaranteed annuity options: The stochastic mortality environment case Laura Ballotta,Steven Haberman.

Guaranteed annuity option

• Guaranteed annuity option(GAO) is a contract giving the holder the right to receive at retirement the greater of

(a) a cash payment equal to the current value of the investment in the equity fund, S, (b)the expected present value of the life annuity obtained by converting this investment at the guaranteed rate.

Page 4: The fair valuation problem of guaranteed annuity options: The stochastic mortality environment case Laura Ballotta,Steven Haberman.

• Assumption:1. The mortality risk is independent of the financial

risk.2. Single premium S0(ignore any expense)

3. The market is frictionless and competitive market with continuous trading

• Model1. Heath-Jarrow-Morton for interest rate2.Bullotta and Haberman for mortality intensity

Page 5: The fair valuation problem of guaranteed annuity options: The stochastic mortality environment case Laura Ballotta,Steven Haberman.

riskmortality andrisk financial

:risk of sources by two affected iscontract GAO that theshow (3)~Eqs.(1)

where

(3) ˆ

is xageder then policyhold aby 0 at time enteredcontract GAO theof Tt0 at time valueThe

y. ageder policyhold a of lifetime remaining the

ngrepresenti r.v. a is andpayment annuity theof times theare T where

(2) ˆ

factor'annuity ' therepresents , 1/gK where

(1)

:x-N=Tmaturity at out pays GAO the

age, retirement normal theis N 0, at time xaged iser policyhold theIf

GAOfor approach n A valuatio 2.

0

0

yj

0

0

0

0

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(t)

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dur(t)

x

)x(Tw

jTT}T{τ

dur

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Tx

TxTTTxTT

(t)x

T

t

u

jTx

jT

T

u

Page 6: The fair valuation problem of guaranteed annuity options: The stochastic mortality environment case Laura Ballotta,Steven Haberman.

(8) .50,50

70)(

(7) ,0

and rend,forecast t in the s variationrandom

model tointroduced is which ,,on process stochastic a is 0 where

(6) e)0,(

),()0,(),( ,

(5) eu)RF(y,

:structure following thereduced bemay UK which in the spopulationpensioner and

annuitant toeappropriat models of series a derive (2000) al.et Sithole (1996), al.Renshawet

s)(continuou ),()0,(),(

(discrete) ),()0,(),(

modelfactor reduction theis ratesmortality projectingfor model actuarial usedA widely

(4) ]|[p

)|(p

years sleast at survive will t whoat time x agedperson ay that probabilit thep

extensions its and model basic the:riskmortality oapproach t stochasticA 3.

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uyRFyquyq

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t

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Page 7: The fair valuation problem of guaranteed annuity options: The stochastic mortality environment case Laura Ballotta,Steven Haberman.

1

let

mindet )D timesides(Both

dY

:

market. financial in the existing randomness of

sources theoft independenmotion,Brownian -P ldimensiona-one standard a is 0)t:(X where

90

equation, aldifferenti

stochastic following thesatisfies Y process thes,other wordin process;Uhlenbeck -Ornstein

an by governed is Y that assume weconcerned, is (6) Eq. ofcomponent stochastic theasfar As

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00

0000

t

t

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with De D

dtaD dD

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dXe dXe e Y

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istic)er (DdXDdtYaDdY D

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sol

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att

tt

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t

vv)a(tt

vavat

t

t

vavt

vav

tt

tat

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tttOrnstein-Uhlenbeck model has the desirable property of mean reversion

Page 8: The fair valuation problem of guaranteed annuity options: The stochastic mortality environment case Laura Ballotta,Steven Haberman.

aliainter (2002), Pitacco and Olivieri ofapproach the

followingby risk longevity eincorporat order toin above described model theenhance We

enhanced. are tsimprovemen subsequent

for potential then thens,expectatio behind fall tsimprovemen if Similarly,

reduced. be willtsimprovemenfurther for potential theafterwards then point,

someat nsexpectatio exceed tsimprovemenmortality if that impliesreversion Mean

zero torun values-long a toreversion Mean

存機率最逐漸收斂到零該性質可確保高齡者生是一項很好的性質

Page 9: The fair valuation problem of guaranteed annuity options: The stochastic mortality environment case Laura Ballotta,Steven Haberman.

motion.Brownian ˆ ldimensiona-one standard a is 0ˆand where

S

ˆdS

equation. aldifferenti stochastic following by the described

is dynamic neutral-risk whosefund,equity an intocontract theofstart at the

er policyholdeach by paid premium single theinvestsinsurer that theAssume

formula valuationGAO theandrisk financial for the modelA 4.

0

t

P):tZ(Rσ

R

ZdSdtSr

ts

ttstr

Page 10: The fair valuation problem of guaranteed annuity options: The stochastic mortality environment case Laura Ballotta,Steven Haberman.

T

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t

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W):tW(

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),(

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)(P and ),(limr

rates.interest and valuesfundequity between t coefficienn correlatio therepresents Hence,

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,ˆ1ˆZ implies This

0 ˆˆ that so

,Z with correlatedmotion Brownian P ldimensiona-one standard a is 0ˆ where

ˆ

bygiven is rate forward theof dynamic neutral-risk thes,other wordIn

structure. decayinglly exponentiaan hasy volatilitrate forward the

in which case specific heconsider t weandframework HJMfactor -single aby given is

ratesinterest of structure term theofevolution that theassume weabove, mentioned As

Page 11: The fair valuation problem of guaranteed annuity options: The stochastic mortality environment case Laura Ballotta,Steven Haberman.

.P~ measurey probabilit adjusted-risk-stock under then expectatio thedenotes E

~ where

(16) ,ˆ

~

processdensity by the P~ P~ measurey probabilit a Define

)(Dahl,2004 market. financial therisk tomortality transfer toneed Then we

yprobabilit survival neutral"risk the"ngrepresenti where

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u

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對於評價與死亡力相關的商品,不能在” risk neutral measure under financial risk”,而是應該找出一個” risk neutral measure under mortality risk”

Page 12: The fair valuation problem of guaranteed annuity options: The stochastic mortality environment case Laura Ballotta,Steven Haberman.

(14). Eq. asspirit same in the calculated are ,ies, probabilit survival retirement-post

theandP, measurey probabilit real under the dynamic its equals process rate hazard theof dynamic- P~ theTherefore,

risk.mortality therespect to with neutral completely ismarket the that thatassume weearlier, discussed weas However,

.

termmortality by the measure,-P~ under the ,'discounted' is payoff GAO terminalheequation t previous in the that Note

(17) ~

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(15) ˆ

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Page 13: The fair valuation problem of guaranteed annuity options: The stochastic mortality environment case Laura Ballotta,Steven Haberman.

measure-P~

,GAO,

.0Y

dY ;50,

50

70)(

,0 , e)0,(),(

(9)-(6) Eqs.in described process rate hazard theof P) measureder dynamic(un on the depend

: iesprobabilit survive retirement-post

:factor mortality retirement-pre

~

:Recall

analysisy sensitivit and nscalculatio Numerical 5.

'22

22

2

'222

2

000

2321

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下的利率分佈。或是找出在就得先算出因為我們想要評價

Page 14: The fair valuation problem of guaranteed annuity options: The stochastic mortality environment case Laura Ballotta,Steven Haberman.

motions.Brownian standard-P~ are 1ˆW

~

ˆW~

thatimplies theoremGirsanov By the

)P~

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(, )[0,T fixedeach for Then

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process theDefine

martingale a is 2

1ˆexpˆ

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Theorem Girsanov

2''t

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Page 15: The fair valuation problem of guaranteed annuity options: The stochastic mortality environment case Laura Ballotta,Steven Haberman.

~] )1(

2)[1(),0(),(limr

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2

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Page 16: The fair valuation problem of guaranteed annuity options: The stochastic mortality environment case Laura Ballotta,Steven Haberman.

])1(2

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Page 17: The fair valuation problem of guaranteed annuity options: The stochastic mortality environment case Laura Ballotta,Steven Haberman.

))(,0( follows and Y oft independen is

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Page 18: The fair valuation problem of guaranteed annuity options: The stochastic mortality environment case Laura Ballotta,Steven Haberman.

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Page 19: The fair valuation problem of guaranteed annuity options: The stochastic mortality environment case Laura Ballotta,Steven Haberman.

))). ξ(T N(0,~ Y (i.e.on distributi its from generated isor 0), = Y (i.e.

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來逼近接著我們使用

Page 20: The fair valuation problem of guaranteed annuity options: The stochastic mortality environment case Laura Ballotta,Steven Haberman.

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Page 21: The fair valuation problem of guaranteed annuity options: The stochastic mortality environment case Laura Ballotta,Steven Haberman.

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Page 22: The fair valuation problem of guaranteed annuity options: The stochastic mortality environment case Laura Ballotta,Steven Haberman.

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固定假設各區間的死亡力皆連續型離散型校正預測死亡率


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