The Fifth National Meeting of the Society, Washington, D. C. November 19-20, 1954

The Fifth National Meeting of the Society, Washington, D. C. November 19-20, 1954Source: Journal of the Operations Research Society of America, Vol. 3, No. 1 (Feb., 1955), pp.108-121Published by: INFORMSStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/166735 .

Accessed: 08/05/2014 16:38

Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at .http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp

.JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range ofcontent in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new formsof scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email protected].

.

INFORMS is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to Journal of the OperationsResearch Society of America.

http://www.jstor.org

This content downloaded from 169.229.32.137 on Thu, 8 May 2014 16:38:01 PMAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions

http://www.jstor.org/action/showPublisher?publisherCode=informs

http://www.jstor.org/stable/166735?origin=JSTOR-pdf

http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp


Fifth National Meeting of the Society WASHINGTON, D. C. NOVEMBER 19-20, 1954

THE 1954 Fall Meeting of the Society was held at the Sheraton Park Hotel in Washington, D. C. There were a total of 383 registrations of which 228

were members and 155 were nonmembers. The invited address on "Evaluation of the Performance of Scientists in Research Laboratories" was given by WILLIAM B. SHOCKLEY of the Weapons Systems Evaluation Group, Department of De- fense, Washington, D. C.

Six sessions devoted to specific aspects of operations research were held. Four of these were symposia consisting entirely of invited papers on the following subjects: War Gaming, Theory of Value, Accomplishments of Industrial Operations Research, and Interrelated Applications of Operations Research. The other two sessions were composed of invited and contributed papers on Methods and Applications respectively.

The program committee consisted of JOHN L. EVERETT, Chairman, RUSSELL L. ACKOFF, ARTHUR A. BROWN, GLENN D. CAMP, GEORGE B. DANTZIG, BERNARD 0. KOOPMAN, HUGH J. MISER, JAMES C. MOUZON, and WILLIAM F. OFFUTT.

At the Council Meeting Fellows and Members were elected as follows:

FELLOWS RUSSELL L. ACKOFF NORMAN A. HITCHMAN GEORGE S. PETTEE DOUGLAS L. BROOKS W. F. OFFUTT KENNETH W. YARNOLD WENDELL A. DWYER

MEMBERS E. LEONARD ARNOFF ROBERT B. LADD GEORGE P. SHETTLE MAX ASTRACHAN ROBERT S. LEDLEY MURRAY J. STATEMAN J. G. BRAINERD JACOB MARSCHAK C. D. W. THORNTON FRANKLIN C. BROOKS THOMAS E. OBERBECK JOHN E. WALSH A. R. KLINGEL RALPH J. ORAVEC WILLIAM M. YOUNG

Abstracts of the papers presented at the meeting follow the Reports of the Education Committee and of the Membership Committee given below.

REPORT OF THE EDUCATION COMMITTEE

S INCE the May meeting in Chicago, the following actions have been taken by the Education Committee: 1. In compliance with the expressed wish of the COUNCIL, a listing of recog-

nized colleges and universities offering courses and/or curricula in operations research was prepared by the Chairman of the Education Committee and made available to the Secretary to facilitate his handling of correspondence in connection with OR educational opportunities.

2. The committee held several 'epistolary meetings' in order to exchange ideas before the formal meeting which was made possible by an authorization of funds by the COUNCIL at the May meeting.

3. The formal meeting of the Committee (Koopman absent) was held at

108



Report of the Education Committee 109

Cornell University on 14-15 October 1954 in conjunction with a Symposium on OR Education sponsored by that University. MIT, Columbia, JHU, Case, Ohio State, UCLA, the Naval Postgraduate School, and Cornell were the institutions of higher learning represented.

4. This report was then circulated to the members of the Committee for com- ment prior to its circulation to the COUNCIL of ORSA.

The Symposium at Cornell disclosed remarkable agreement among those present on the following points:

1. That the level of mathematical achievement implied by successful completion of a course in differential equations should be a basic prerequisite for graduate study in operations research. Those present were very careful to stipulate that it was a matter of indifference whether this level was achieved in any particular undergraduate curriculum.

2. That adequate courses in probability theory and in mathematical statistics should form the backbone of graduate instruction in mathematics. There was considerable interest, all favorable, in the development of survey, or synthesizing, courses in mathematics, designed to embrace specific mathematical techniques which have proved useful in operations research. Courses in topics such as sam- pling theory, mathematics of linear programming, mathematics of machine com- putation, and symbolic logic, were recognized as valuable, and were 'recommended' on an 'and/or' basis, to depend upon the resources and curricular requirements of the particular institution.

3. That courses offered under the title of operations research should empha- size methodology, rather than specific techniques of problem solution (most of which might more logically be labeled mathematics).

4. That the graduate student in operations research should have some opportunity to broaden and deepen his understanding of the field of his undergraduate training. The need for considerable flexibility, in order to provide opportunity for the social scientist to become acquainted with physical science, and vice versa, was recognized, but the danger of producing 'jacks of all trades and masters of none' was also recognized.

5. That the graduate student should have an opportunity to engage in team research on actual problems. His dissertation should report on either such research or basic research carried out individually or in teams. There was general agreement that the dissertation must represent a genuine contribution rather than a mere report on a routine application of well-known techniques. The contribution might be methodological or a highly original application.

[Review of the foregoing by the individual members of the Committee requires that two additional statements be made:

6. Emphasis on undergraduate training in mathematics through differential equations implies a baccalaureate in mathematics, science, or engineering, and it assumes that, through these curricula, the student has been grounded in physical science and has had an opportunity to understand the relationship between mathematics and science. Thus, having seen mathematics at work in these areas, he is better equipped to tackle the complicated phenomena of industry and warfare.

7. The 'minimum curriculum' proposed here in no way argues against the usefulness of social scientists, historians, etc., in operations research. It does argue that it is difficult to conceive of a graduate curriculum that could 'blanket'



110 Fifth National Meeting

the usual spread of undergraduate training between, for example, a bachelor in physics and a bachelor in history. The indifference expressed in Point 1, above, is merely recognition of the fact that undergraduate curricula in social science are being oriented increasingly toward mathematical and statistical training.]

These preliminary criteria are worded rather vaguely, but they represent a start toward the establishment of informal 'standards' to guide educational institutions that are contemplating establishment of curricula in operations research.

There was general agreement on other important points. Thus, no concern was expressed over differing administrative affiliations within a particular university; independent status, attachment to industrial engineering, and attachment to engineering administration all exist, but none was determined to have marked advantage over the others. Further, no reason for separating military from non- military operations-research education developed.

While there was lively discussion and debate on many points, no particular area of disagreement was defined to the point of threatening to disrupt the conference. At the same time, the conference left many questions unanswered; this led to an expression of hope by many of the participants that a similar conference might be held again-and soon.

From the foregoing and from other discussions among the committee members, the committee wishes to submit the following recommendations to the COUNCIL:

1. That the proceedings of the Cornell Symposium be disseminated by the SOCIETY through its JOURNAL, its Secretary and other officers, and its Education Committee.

2. That funds be made available to make possible committee participation in any conference or symposium similar to that sponsored by Cornell which might be scheduled before the spring meeting of the SOCIETY.

3. That the Committee be charged with the continued collection and evaluation of information on OR education with the objective of developing increasingly precise guidance for educational institutions which are offering or which are planning to offer courses and/or curricula in operations research.

4. That, because of the fundamental importance of OR education to the future of the profession, the COUNCIL instruct its membership and nominating committees that full consideration is to be given to leadership and accomplishment in OR education in recommending election to membership and fellowship and in placing names on the ballot.

RUSSELL L. ACKOFF GLEN CAMP W. P. CUNNINGHAM T. M. WHITIN J. F. MCCLOSKEY, Chairman

REPORT OF THE MEMBERSHIP COMMITTEE

W ITH the meeting of the Council of the SOCIETY on November 19, the Member- ship Committee has finally completed its initial peak-load of work and has,

for the time being at least, reached steady state in regard to procedures. The large backlog of nominations for membership or fellowship, many of them incomplete, some undecipherable, have been sorted out. Those which at least con- formed to the minimum requirements laid down by our Constitution and By-laws



Report of the Membership Committee e 11

have been voted on by the Committee and, if approved, have been voted on by the Council in accordance with the rules. Many nominations that were originally rejected because they were below minimum requirements have been referred back to the nominators. In cases where these were resubmitted with additional information, they also have been considered by the Committee and the Council. A few 'nominations' which were not resubmitted by the nominators or which had no nominators have been adversely voted on by the Committee, and further action in these cases will require submission of a new nomination, appropriately endorsed. With this last backlog gone over, our work can now be 'current.' Further shifts from one membership category to another will require further influx of nominations.

The new nomination blanks and the procedure whereby the nominators accompany the nomination with letters of recommendation should help decrease the number of incomplete nominations received. The decisions of the Membership Committee and of the Council regarding the eligibility of a candidate for Member- ship or Fellowship are based (a) on their knowledge of the candidate's experience and achievements in the field of operations research and (b) on their opinion of the candidate's abilities and personality, or, failing direct acquaintanceship, (c) on their opinion of the judgment of the nominators. It is the duty of the nominators to include enough details of the nominee's training, achievements, and personality so that these decisions will not have to be based mainly on (c), as has so often been the case to date. The ideal and most expeditious procedure would, of course, be for members only to nominate those persons whom they are convinced are eligible for advancement, and to back up their opinions by enough details in their letters of recommendation so that approval by Membership Committee and Council becomes automatic. This ideal has been more honored in the breach heretofore, which, of course, has led to delays, disappointments, and misunderstandings. The SOCIETY membership can easily remedy this difficulty by taking their duties as nominators more seriously.

As soon as a dozen or so nominations have been received, or at least once each quarter, the Membership Committee will be polled by mail. Abstracts of the nominator's letters accompany the ballot for Membership; photo copies of their letters will accompany that for Fellowship. If a majority of the Membership Committee votes for the nomination, a mail poll is then taken of the Council, of the same sort as for the Committee. If this vote is also favorable, this nomination will then be presented to the Council for formal confirmation at its next meeting, in conformity with legal requirements. The nominee will be notified of his election shortly thereafter, and an announcement will be made in the next issue of the JOURNAL.

If a majority of the Committee or of the Council votes against the nomination, the nominators will be so notified, and no further action will be taken by Com- mittee or Council unless and until a new nomination is filed. If a majority of the Committee or the Council is neither for nor against, the nomination will be tabled for a year and then resubmitted, and the nominees will be notified of this fact and urged to submit additional data to improve chances of success in this later consideration.

The procedure just outlined is, of course, a slow one. No election can be made official except at one of the semi-annual Council meetings. Furthermore, each nomination must be passed by two bodies, the Membership Committee and the Council, so that, in too many cases, more than six months have elapsed between receipt of nomination and notification of nominee (if elected). Such a delay has




been particularly annoying in the first years of the SOCIETY, when we have been anxious to obtain an adequate and representative group of Members and Fellows to guide the SOCIETY in its formative years. When one adds to the delays required by our rules the additional complications caused by the Committee's having to develop procedures and the membership's having to learn these procedures, the resulting slow-down has been quite unsatisfactory-to say the least. The Com- mittee is confident, however, that this first period is now over and that future operation should be steady and reasonably rapid.

This does not mean that we feel that the present Membership and Fellowship rolls include all persons who qualify. At present about 8 per cent of our total membership are Fellows and about 36 per cent are Members, which is a lower fraction than is customary in many professional societies, though the discrepancy is not large. The remedy for this situation is clear, however: more nominations should be sent in! The remedy is also simple when the potential Member or Fellow is known by several Members or Fellows, as is likely if he is or was a member of one of the larger OR groups. But it is not simple for the worker who is not known by other members, and the Membership Committee feels this may be its major problem during the next three to five years. Eventually, as we all get acquainted with each other, as each of us active in the field publishes papers and reports at meetings, those deserving Membership or Fellowship will become well- enough known so that they can find nominators to sponsor their cases. Meantime there is a problem: suggestions for its solution, within the rules, would be welcomed by the Membership Committee.

One solution, of course, is to relax our rules, to change the Constitution with regard to criteria for Membership or Fellowship or with regard to the procedure for acting on nominations. Such changes may be made whenever the SOCIETY

decides to do so. It is hoped, however, that the decision will be made with the long-range objectives of the SOCIETY in mind, rather than to alleviate an initial transient delay. The classes of membership, and the rules for judging nominations to the higher grades, were set up originally as one of the means whereby professional standards could be set and maintained. Before we make changes that might lower these standards, we should be sure that this is what we want, for such changes are irreversible.

In the meantime, will all Members and Fellows look over the list of Associate Members which came out last summer? If they find there persons who appear to them deserving of advancement in grade, will they take the trouble to make out a nomination blank (preferably one of the new kind, as enclosed in the November 1954 issue of JORSA), to write a sponsoring letter, to get another Member or Fellow to do likewise, and to send it all in to the Secretary? We will try to act on it as quickly as possible. In the end, this is the only way we can have a healthy and growing SOCIETY, representative in its make-up, and responsive to the needs of workers in all aspects of operations research.

A. A. BROWN JACK W. DUNLAP MARTIN L. ERNST ELLIS JOHNSON HORACE LEVINSON GEORGE E. NICHOLSON, JR. PHILIP M. MORSE, Chairman



Abstracts 113

ABSTRACTS

INVITED PAPERS ON ACCOMPLISHMENTS OF INDUSTRIAL OPERATIONS RESEARCH

NOVEMBER 19, 1954, 11:00 A.M.-4:30 P.M.

1. A Report on a Survey of Operations Research Attitudes Among Industrial Executives, JOHN J. CAMINER, McCann-Erickson Advertising Company, New York, New York. During the 1952-3 and 1953-4 school years student groups under General Georges F. Doriot at the Harvard Graduate School of Business Administration made intensive studies of the development and probable future of operations research in industry. This paper reports the findings of a survey of attitudes towards operations research which included some 250 interviews with executives at all levels, in various industries and in companies of various sizes. It was found that there was, on the whole, a great deal of interest among business men concerning the potentialities of operations research for assisting in management problems, a great deal of confusion about how it would contribute, and a lack of factual information on which they could assess O. R. Among those executives who have used operations research, there is considerable enthusiasm, and among most others a growing willingness to accept a more formal, quantitative approach to their operating problems.

2. Operations Research in the Celanese Corporation of America, DAVID BEN-

DEL HERTZ, Celanese Corporation of America, Newark, New Jersey. From our point of view, the role of operations research is to furnish assistance to the administrative configurations in the overall operation and the various component operations. An educational aspect is involved in preparing the administrative configuration to accept the type of assistance which can be offered. In the specific case under consideration major emphasis was first placed on complex problems of maintenance (or control) of the existing technology functions and on methods for changing these functions. Therefore, initially, the operations analysis group was a part of the engineering department. Typical cases of this type of activity are mentioned. As the educational process continued, it became possible to place more emphasis on problems of allocation of resources and objective function quantification. Eventually, the operations analysis activity was transferred from engineering to a newly formed planning department. Personnel considerations and typical cases are discussed. The question of the efficacy of operations research as a part of operating management is considered, and the role of OR as opposed to other staff and operating departments is weighed.

3. Operations Research in the American Thread Company, C. G. MCGEE, The American Thread Company, Willimantic, Connecticut. The American Thread Com- pany is a relatively small organization, with several thousand employees. Its initial contact with operations research was with a consulting firm which was asked to in- vestigate the production and inventory problems related to the widely fluctuating sales characteristics of the thread industry. This major effort suggested many smaller studies, and the company acquired its operations research "group" by hiring a member of the consulting firm's staff as an assistant to the vice president in charge of production planning. Other departments may ask for assistance when desired. In the production planning field, the 0. R. man is responsible for placing in operation any recommendations accepted by management. The majority of the problems so far considered have dealt with production scheduling; with improved service, lower inventories and less expensive scheduling all as objectives. Other areas of interest are the size of the line of finished goods stocked and a number of problems which are concerned basically with information handling. Two case histories are described. The first concerns a production scheduling scheme developed for the production




of finished stocks, based upon the principle of releasing daily to the mill one day's work for each machine group. The second case is that of a production scheduling plan for items in continuous production, using a servo-mechanical model. These plans allow satisfactory operation with stocks considerably lower than formerly was believed possible.

4. Financial Analysis in Johns-Manville Corporation, STANLEY GREEN, Johns-Manville, 22 East 40th Street, New York, New York. The talk will include a definition of financial analysis in Johns-Manville; a brief description of the organization that performs it; its relation to other responsibilities; and selection and training of analysts. The nature of problems will be discussed in general along with the nature, derivation, and evaluation of facts needed in their solution. Specific studies will then be considered.

5. Operations Research in the Simplex Wire and Cable Company, WELLS

MORSS, Simplex Wire and Cable Company, Cambridge, Massachusetts. The acquaint- ance of this company with operations research began three years ago with the employment of the services of a consulting operations research group. We were looking for an answer to the common problem of determining the labor costs of operating semi-automatic machinery applying a large assortment of materials to cables varying widely in size. A succession of other consultants had attempted to correct the faults in the system but the problem remained and a new approach was necessary. Opera- tions research taught us how to set up a model for describing relationships among significant factors influencing labor cost and techniques for evaluating results. The first problem led to the consideration and design of an information system which will make full use of the analytical methods of operations research.

6. A Case Study of an Association between Science and Business, RUSSELL L. ACKOFF, Case Institute of Technology, 10900 Euclid Avenue, Cleveland, Ohio. In August 1953 the 0. R. Group of Case Institute of Technology was invited to have one of its members sit in periodically with a Managerial Task Force appointed by the general manager of a company which is the largest in its field. The Task Force was assigned the job of developing a "five year plan." This involved setting marketing, engineering, and manufacturing objectives; determining resource-requirements; and redesigning the organization so as to make it more efficient in the pursuit of the objectives set. Attendance of an opsearcher at a sample of Task Force sessions was intended to familiarize him with company operations and to enable him subsequently to make recommendations concerning possible areas to which OR eventually could be applied. As Task Force work began the complexity of its problem became increasingly apparent. As a result the opsearcher was incorporated as a full time participant charged with the responsibility for designing the research required. The interest in OR which developed within the Task Force as a result of this exposure led to a course in OR given at company headquarters for its top management. At the completion of the Task Force project a proposal for the study of allocation of sales effort was suggested and approved. A management Advisory Board and a joint Case-Company team was established. An educational program for company tech- nical personnel was integrated into the team's activity. A second team was established shortly thereafter to study ways of estimating and controlling distribution costs. The nature of the problems, the organization of the teams, the educational program, and the results obtained to date will be discussed.

7. Strip Mining Phosphate Rock with Large Walking Draglines, J. W. DUNLAP

AND H. JACOBS, Dunlap and Associates, Inc., New York, New York.



Abstracts 115

SESSION ON METHODS OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH

NOVEMBER 19, 1954, 1:30 P.M.-4:30 P.M.

8. Survey of Mathematical Techniques of Programming, GEORGE B. DANT-

ZIG, Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, California (INVITED PAPER). An industrial enterprise is faced with a variety of programming problems such as where to ship? When? How to invest? When? What products to make? What processes to use? etc. Linear programming, game theory, extensive gaming, dynamic programming, combinatorial methods, calculus of variations, etc. have been employed to answer these questions. The purpose of this paper is to present a series of such problems as they might arise in a firm, their reformulation in mathematical terms, and the special mathematical technique which appears to be best suited to their solution.

9. Convexity and Maximization in Operations Research Problems, J. M. DAN-

SKIN, Operations Evaluation Group, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, P. 0. Box 4955, Washington, D. C. A great many of the allocation problems encountered in operations research can be treated by simple considerations concerning convex or concave functions. An exposition of some problems in this domain will be made.

10. A Problem in Machine Shop Loading, A. VAZSONYI, The Ramo-Wooldridge Corporation, 8820 Bellanca Avenue, Los Angeles 45, California. A machine shop is engaged in fabricating parts P1, P2, P3 *- in production periods 1, 2, 3, *-- on machines M1, M2, M3, *- Cumulative requirements for part Pi are given by Xi .<

Xj22<X3< etc. The problem is to determine the schedule YI<? Yj2< Yi3<, etc. for part Pi such that (1) requirements are met or Yjk>Xjk (2) machine shop capacities are not exceeded or As At,1(Yjkyjk-1)<hik where At j is the number of hours required on machine Mi to manufacture a single Pi and hik is the number of hours available on Mi during the k'th production period, (3) the total dollar value of in-process inventory Z=2jk Cj(YjkXjk) is minimized. This problem can be solved with the aid of linear programming. For practical purposes it is important to obtain a feasible solution, not necessarily minimizing z. Such a solution can be obtained with the aid of the following explicit algorithm: Let

4i= minmAjj1 [hi,k- I Ai,(Yn n-Y) then Y" =max[Y -A;xh]

The algorithm can be extended to the case when machine setup time is important.

11. The Number of Vertices of a Polyhedron, THOMAS L. SAATY, Operations Evaluation Group, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, P. 0. Box 4955, Washington D. C. Relationship between convex polyhedra and a set of linear inequalities with a linear function to optimize is indicated. The number of steps involved in using iterative procedures for solving this type of problem, such as the simplex process, depend on the vertices of the convex set formed by the inequalities. It is desired to find upper bounds to the number of vertices as a function of the number of inequalities. Such an upper bound is determined, using Euler's formula and other auxiliary relations. It is found to be a polynomial of degree (n-2) in the number of inequalities where n is the number of the dimension dealt with. A theorem is given showing that an upper bound as a linear function of the number of inequalities F7%1 dominated

by the fundamental upper bound _ does not exist. Generalizing this (Fi-,-n) !n!

theorem using polynomials in Fn-1 would presumably show that the results obtained here cannot be further refined. Thus one is now able to put finer upper bounds on the time required for an electronic computer to solve a Linear Programming problem.




12. Simplified Mathematical Models of Inventory, ELIEZER NADDOR, Case In- stitute of Technology, University Circle, Cleveland 6, Ohio. This paper will include a detailed discussion of four inventory models based on probability distribution of demands and on costs of holding a surplus or a shortage in inventory. The discussion will be followed by a few illustrative examples. Other models, including those involving set-up costs, will be mentioned.

13. Extension of Digitalized Computational Methods to Systems of Constraints and Multi-Component Propositions in the Symbolic Logic, ROBERT S. LEDLEY,

Operations Research Office, The Johns Hopkins University, Chevy Chase, Maryland. Digitalized computational methods for the two-component two-valued propositional calculus (Ledley: JORSA August 1954) assigned a 2n digit binary designation number to each combined proposition based on n independent generating propositions Ei(i=l, n), associated with a particular numerical basis where E? has 2n-' units. Practical results, amenable to implementation by an electronic logic-machine, for application to logical sentential problems include: assigning a designation number to any proposition; finding canonical forms for any proposition; testing statement sets for consistency, redundancy, implication, tautology; solving a simultaneous equiva- lence and implication equations; performing change of variable transformations; achieving the absolute simplest form, etc. Further extension of this theory intro- duces general logical constraints, or functional dependencies among the generators, which by properly reducing the digits in the designation number, automatically preserves intrinsic relationships. One application of this constraint theory is to many-component propositional two-valued logic, where the ith of rk components of a proposition Q is Qi=U-kQ; and QinQ,=0 for i5?j. Form basic propositions with ri components each, n=-irri, and a single component of the kth proposition has n/rk units in the n-digit designation number. This digitalization enables the practical computational methods above to be extended to multi-component logic and provides facility in solving specialized problems.

SESSION ON APPLICATIONS OF OPERATIONS-RESEARCH METHODS

NOVEMBER 20, 1954, 9:00 A.M.-12:00 M.

14. "Kill" Probability Formula for Correlated Aim Wander, I. H. COLE, De- fence Research Board, Ottawa, Ontario (INVITED PAPER). When rapid firing guns are mounted on an unstable platform the phenomenon of aim wander gives rise to difficulties in calculating the chance of "kill". So-called exact analytical solutions try to account for the effect on a round-to-round basis and they run into difficulties of mathematical integration when the number of rounds involved exceed a relatively small number. The theory developed in the present paper by-passes these difficulties by considering a bullet pattern as a whole; it recognizes that the variance in the bias of the centre of gravity of a pattern may be due to a variety of causes including the correlated effects of aim wander. It recognizes also that the variance of individual bullets in a pattern relative to their centre of gravity is influenced by aim wander. On this basis aim wander is allowed for in a simple way. The theory has been subjected to tests which it has passed satisfactorily.

15. A Discrete Evasion Game, LESTER E. DUBINS, Institute for Air Weapons Re- search, University of Chicago, Museum of Science and Industry, Chicago 37, Illinois. Evasion and maneuvering situations are of interest to the military. Those situations in which each participant possesses incomplete information concerning the position and activities of the other participant are particularly complex and their mathematical study is only in its infancy. In this connection, at the May, 1953 meeting of ORSA, Rufus P. Isaacs described a problem of theoretic interest. This problem may be viewed as an extremely idealized situation of a ship attempting to maneuver so as to minimize the probability of its being bombed by a dirigible flying overhead.



Abstracts 117

This idealized problem has recently been solved at the Institute for Air Weapons Research. It is felt that similar techniques and results may be applicable to more complex realistic situations. The mathematical formulation of the problem consists in defining a zero sum two-person infinite game with incomplete information. It is demonstrated that this game possesses a value and that the ship possesses a one parameter family of optimal strategies. A somewhat surprising result is that the dirigible possesses no optimal strategy for this simple game.

16. Human Tolerance to Irradiation, E. H. SMITH, E. H. Smith and Company, Silver Spring, Maryland.

17. Civil Defense Planning Requirements for Suburban Communities, HAROLD A. KNAPP, JR., Operations Evaluation Group, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, P. 0. Box 4955, Washington, D. C. With the advent of thermonuclear weapons, suburban communites 6-16 miles from urban aiming points must concern themselves with the direct effects of enemy bombings. To be effective, the civil defense efforts of such communities must (a) be based on the range of blast overpressures and thermal intensities which they are most likely to experience; (b) Concentrate first on those preparations which offer the greatest chances for saving lives and property. A method is presented for determining which C. D. measures are necessary and which are most important for suburban communities at various distances from the center of large cities. The need for additional weapons effects data and for an official policy governing the respective roles of shelter and evacuation is shown.

18. Dependent Survival Probabilities Associated with Multiple-Plane Forma- tions in Saturation Raids Against Enemy Defenses, RALPH J. ORAVEC, Guided Missiles Division, Republic Aviation Corporation, Bethpage, Long Island, New York. The treatment of survival probabilities associated with multiple-plane formations, conducting saturation raids against discrete or effectively continuous defenses, usually assumes that the survival of a particular plane, at one point of the formation flight path, is independent of the number of planes which have survived up to that point. In those treatments of the problem where this assumption is partially or totally relaxed, state matrices are introduced into the analysis which lead to theo- retically satisfying results, but which become computationally unmanageable in most problems of practical interest. In this analysis, formulas are developed which yield various so-called "dependent survival probabilities" for a broad class of both discrete and effectively continuous enemy defenses. The discrete problem resolves itself into the classical barrier problem, but does not assume the independence criterion mentioned above. By considering the joint probability of occurrence of a particular distribution of losses of L particular planes of an m-plane formation among n barriers, a formula is developed for the probability of loss of exactly L particular planes for all possible distributions of losses among the n barriers. On the basis of certain assumptions, the above probability formula is used to yield an analogous result for an effectively continuous defense by allowing the number of barriers in the discrete case to go beyond bounds. Having found the basic dependent survival mentioned above, the results are readily extended to several dependent survival probabilities having frequent application by Operations Research workers in the field of air warfare.

19. On a Congestion Problem in an Aircraft Factory, GEORGES BRIGHAM,

Boeing Airplane Company, Seattle, Washington. An investigation of the mode of operation of tool cribs in Boeing's factory area showed that arrivals at the counter occur at random, the order of serving is random, and the distribution of the lengths of time to provide service is exponential. For such characteristics, a formula is derived and graphed which indicates the optimum number of clerks to be used behind the counter and the overall minimum cost due to waiting on the part of the callers and




the servers. These results are applicable to any service counters having the same general operating characteristics. It is necessary to know only the average length of time required to serve a caller and the average number of arrivals per unit of time.

20. The Application of Operations Research Methods to the Game of Horse- racing, HERBERT RUDERFER, Celanese Corporation of America, 290 Ferry Street, Newark 5, New Jersey. The game is taken from the point of view of the racing fan. Two major problems are considered. One is concerned with the determination of the probabilities of the horses in a given race. The second problem is concerned with the horseplayer's strategy, given the individual probabilities. The probability deter- minations are based on quantitative and qualitative techniques. A quantitative technique, original with the author, which is the basis of the probability determina- tions, is discussed. An analytical model for the probabilities is presented to illumi- nate the subject matter. The qualitative approach is briefly discussed and its use independent of quantitative methods is criticized. From the assumption of con- stant risk, a strategy is derived. The details are carried out via the mathematical "theory of ruin." Equations are presented and an approximation is suggested. An index of the value of a particular wager is derived which is shown to be inversely related to Feller's "expected duration of the game."

INVITED PAPERS ON DECISION PROCESSES AND VALUE THEORY

NOVEMBER 20, 1954, 9:00 A.M.-12:00 M.

21. Survey of Theories of Decision Processes, H. RAIFFA, Columbia University, New York, New York.

22. Principles and Criteria of Choice, D. H. BLACKWELL, University of California, Berkeley, California.

23. Experimental Approach to Value Determination, C. WEST CHURCHMAN,

Case Institute of Technology, Cleveland, Ohio.

24. Value and the Decision Process, N. W. SMITH, Operations Research Office, The Johns Hopkins University, Chevy Chase, Maryland.

INVITED PAPERS ON SOME INTERRELATED APPLICATIONS OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH

NOVEMBER 20, 1954, 1:00 P.M.-4:00 P.M.

25. Forest Resource Management, ARTHUR ALLEN BROWN, Forest Service, Washington 25, D. C. The forests are a great natural resource whose services and products include the collection and storage of water, the prevention of floods, timber, grazing, fish and wildlife, and recreation. The processing of wood products, only one economic effect of forest productivity, employs about 1.3 million people who receive about $4 billion in wages and salaries per year. The broad purpose of the Forest Service is to manage this great resource with a proper balance between immediate yield and sustained productivity. Forest resource management furnishes many examples of the effective application of operations research, even though not called by that name, including scientific study of harvesting and reforestation schedules and procedures, watershed management, disease and pest control, and the prevention and control of forest fires. The latter is here used as an illustrative example. Fire prevention and control is a large subject in itself. About 90% of all fires are man- made, and this has led to an extensive educational program; this whole program, including "Smokey Bear", costs the Forest Service only about $100,000 per year, owing to the generous support by business, schools and other organizations. Al- though difficult to evaluate, the program has already had many beneficial results,



Abstracts 119

and greater results are expected from systematic education of the coming generation. After prevention, the next best thing is to arrest fires in their early stages, and this involves effective aerial and lookout search, dropping parachutist "smoke jumpers", and many other factors. Finally, there are the complex procedures for fighting large fires. The structure of these operations bears a striking resemblance to military combat operations, and many tactical similarities will be described. These include the deployment of detection and fire fighting forces as guided, in part, by a recently developed quantitative measure of forest flammability; the actual firefighting tactics; and "mopping-up" operations after a fire has been brought under control but is not completely out.

26. Fisheries Management, CHARLES M. MOTTLEY, Department of Defense, Wash- ington 25, D. C. The word fisheryis not restricted to the catching of fish; it refers to the harvesting of a variety of aquatic animals, including such diverse forms as oysters, lobsters, fish, whales and fur seals. The actual fishing operations and the processing of the product are usually undertaken by private enterprise, and are similar to those of other food industries. The conservation of the resources, on the other hand, is the responsibility of various governmental and international authorities. Within the last 30 years these conservation agencies have made increasing use of scientific methods of investigation to provide a better basis for the administration of the fisheries. The Pacific halibut and salmon investigations, and studies of the Atlantic haddock population afford excellent examples in the field of applied ecology of the use of what has come to be known-since World War I-as operations research. A sport fishery example is here used to illustrate the principles of operations research as applied to fisheries management. Three fundamental fishery management problems are presented and the effect of their solutions on the decision-making process are discussed: (1) what quantity of fish can be produced in a given body of water? (2) how big a crop can the fishermen remove and still allow a sustained yield? (3) how great a financial expenditure should be made to increase production?

27. Production and Processing of Food, HOWARD L. STIER, National Canners Association, 1133 20th, N. W., Washington, D. C. Some of the techniques of operations research have been used for many years in the mass production of food, although the term "operations research" has only recently been applied to this work. These applications include the breeding and selection of new crop varieties and strains; the scheduling of planting and harvesting; determining optimal amounts and distribution of fertilizers; selection of the best production areas; the development of effective harvesting procedures and equipments; prediction and control of raw product quality; and programming the use of pesticides in disease and insect control. In recent years, operations research techniques have also been used by some individual firms to increase the effectiveness of processing plant operations and in the economic, administrative, and marketing phases of the business. Applications in these areas include: selection and purchase of supplies and equipment; measuring and controlling quality, fill of container, etc.; increasing the effectiveness of man- power and equipment utilization; improving clerical and administrative procedures and financial controls; and increasing the effectiveness of marketing operations.

28. Distribution of Food, R. W. HOECKER, Agriculturat Marketing Service, De- partment of Agriculture, Washington 25, D. C. The modern supermarket, with gross sales up to a few million dollars per year, is a highly integrated operation handling 4,000 to 6,000 items with average turnover rates of 10 to 125 times yearly. It is a fruitful area for the application of Operations Research. Research designed to improve the efficiency of food distribution, to be fully effective, must be geared to the management level. Recommendations growing out of research must recognize, for example, that if the produce department is made self-service this action affects all other store departments. Likewise, a self-service meat department requires an




entirely different store orientation than a service meat department. This presenta- tion shows how this research has been organized, planned and executed, and how the results have been "sold" to management. In particular, it is emphasized that a mixed OR team is needed, including agricultural marketing specialists, economists, industrial engineers, and retailing and wholesaling experts. Highly useful results have been obtained at both the wholesale and retail levels. Some of these results will be reported.

29. Data Processing and Operations Research, JAMES L. MCPHERSON, Bureau of the Census, Washington 25, D. C. The industrial revolution freed man's back from drudgery and vastly increased his physical productivity, but did little by compari- son toward relieving him of routine mental drudgery. As the volume of data increased, processing methods did not keep pace, with the result that routine paper work has consumed a steadily increasing proportion of total human effort during the past century or so. The development, since World War II, of large-scale, high-speed data processing equipment is just beginning to reverse this trend. This is of importance to Operations Research in at least two distinct ways: it offers great opportunities for reducing the cost and at the same time increasing the effectiveness of "paper shuffling" operations; and it furnishes a means for obtaining the kinds of data needed to increase the effectivenss of other parts of a total operation. The greatly increased capabilities of modern data processing equipment will force management to direct its attention to the real utility of data processing activities. The generation of records and their maintenance is not an end in itself. Given the ability to generate and maintain records rapidly and accurately, Operations Research can address its attention to whether or not the records in either their raw or manipulated state serve any useful purpose and how well they serve that purpose. Some examples will be given to show how the acquisition of electronic data processing equipment by the Census Bureau has (1) created new operations research problems (2) significantly changed the emphasis on old operations research problems, and (3) solved operations research problems, which although recognized to be of great importance, had remained only partially and inadequately solved because they were prohibitively complex relative to methods previously available.

INVITED PAPERS ON THE USE AND VALUE OF WAR GAME METHODS IN SOLVING OPERATIONS RESEARCH PROBLEMS

NOVEMBER 20, 1954, 1:00 P.M.-4:00 P.M.

30. Gaming as a Technique of Analysis, ROBERT D. SPECHT, The Rand Corpora- tion, Santa Monica, California. Gaming is an activity which consists of drawing up a set of rules to represent the context of the problem at hand and having people play the game. The game is so constructed that a good solution to the given problem is a good strategy in the game. Players of the game find good strategies which have a degree of reproducibility if several sets of players are used and which can be roughly ordered by pitting one strategy against another. Often the problem may have ele- ments of conflict or competition but the methodology may be applicable when these ingredients are absent; the novel aspect of the methodology is in using the human brain as an analogue computer, so to speak.

31. War Gaming at CORG, W. L. WHITSON, Operations Research Office, The Johns Hopkins University, 7100 Connecticut Avenue, Chevy Chase, Maryland.

32. Monte Carlo Computer War Gaming, RICHARD E. ZIMMERMAN, Operations Research Office, The Johns Hopkins University, Chevy Chase, Maryland.

33. Simulation as an Aid in Model Building, ROBERT P. RICH, Applied Physics Laboratory, The Johns Hopkins University, 8621 Georgia Avenue, Silver Spring,



Abstracts 121

Maryland. An example drawn from fleet air defense illustrates the use of a very simple device which simulates the physical situation to be analyzed in an attempt to construct a mathematical model of the situation. Such a simulator is also helpful in explaining the results of the analysis to the people for whom they are intended and in estimating the errors introduced by various approximations used in computa- tion.

34. Limitations on the Predictive Use of War-Gaming Techniques, J. P. T. PEARMAN AND W. F. WHITMORE, Division of Industrial Cooperation, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts. A distinction is drawn between the original use of war-gaming as a means of training operational personnel in decision making, and its later employment as a means for assessing proposed courses of action. In the first case, the play of the game is the important thing-inputs and outputs are secondary, though some correspondence to reality is desirable. In the second case, the output is to be the basis for management decision, and the valid- ity both of the model and the inputs is crucial.

Examples are cited of the dangers which can arise from incomplete understanding and specification of the war-game inputs-the use of averages may greatly simplify the play at the risk of serious distortion in the results. Certain extreme inputs may require a change in the structure of the game itself.

It is concluded that war-gaming is a useful, though somewhat limited, technique for analyzing the worth of various proposed courses of action. But frequently, where a correct decision is sought, the precision and compass of the knowledge required- both in formulating the game and specifying the inputs-may permit resolution of the matter without recourse to the game.

35. The Value of War-Gaming Methods in Non-Military Problems, PHILIP M. MORSE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

AUTHOR INDEX BY ABSTRACT NUMBER

ACKOFF, R. L., 6 MORSE, P. M., 35 BLACKWELL, D. H., 22 MORSS, W., 5 BRIGHAM, G., 19 MOTTLEY, C. M., 26 BROWN, A. A., 25 NADDOR, E., 12 CAMINER, J. L., 1 ORAVEC, R. J., 18 CHURCHMAN, C. W., 23 PEARMAN, J. P. T., 34 COLE, I. H., 14 RAIFFA, H., 21 DANSKIN, J. M., 9 RICH, R. P., 33 DANTZIG, G. B., 8 RUDERFER, H., 20 DUBINS, L. E., 15 SAATY, T. L., 11 DUNLAP, J. W., 7 SMITH, E. H., 16 GREEN, S., 4 SMITH, N. W., 24 HERTZ, D. B., 2 SPECHT, R. D., 30 HOECKER, R. W.) 28 STIER, H. L., 27 JACOBS, H., 7 KNAPP, H. A., 17 VAZSONYI, A., 10 LEDLEY, R. S., 13 WHITMORE, W. F., 34 MCGEE, C. G., 3 WHITSON, W. L., 31 MCPHERSON, J. L., 29 ZIMMERMAN -R. E., 32

NOTE: Copies of the above papers are not available either through the SOCIETY or the JOURNAL. Readers desiring copies should contact the authors directly.



Date post:	08-Jan-2017
Category:	Documents
Upload:	vodiep
View:	214 times
Download:	0 times

The Fifth National Meeting of the Society, Washington, D. C. November 19-20, 1954

Documents