Final BriefingFinal Briefing
November 30, 2006ENVP U9000
Prof. Blaine Pope
The First Step: New York City Adaptations to Sea Level Rise
David BoswellDan StellarCharles YackulicReo KawamuraBrian Nogy
Mark SeamanLovelace Sarpong
Benjamin GarnaudKatherine Faulhaber
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OutlineOutline
1.Framing the Issue2.Case Studies3.Lessons Learned4.Planning Framework5.Proposed Budget6.Conclusion
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Framing the IssueFraming the IssueMost projects start only after a catastropheMost projects start only after a catastrophe
Hurricane Katrina catalyzed a new dialogue in Hurricane Katrina catalyzed a new dialogue in coastal and flood prone citiescoastal and flood prone cities
By 2050, stronger storms and rising sea levels By 2050, stronger storms and rising sea levels may make NYCmay make NYC’’s 100 year flood a onces 100 year flood a once--inin--2020--years event years event
““The core body of knowledge has solidifiedThe core body of knowledge has solidified……We're moving into a solution phase.We're moving into a solution phase.””
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Possible Sea Level ProjectionsPossible Sea Level Projections
4.3 – 11.7 inches by 2020s6.9 – 23.7 inches by 2050s9.5 – 42.5 inches by 2080s
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A Recent Sign at a Bus StopA Recent Sign at a Bus Stop(NYC Office of Emergency Management)(NYC Office of Emergency Management)
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Case StudiesCase Studies
1.Seattle1.Seattle2.Antwerp2.Antwerp3.The Netherlands3.The Netherlands4.Galveston4.Galveston5.New England5.New England6.London6.London
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SeattleSeattleAdaptation plan will be established by the end of 2007. Adaptation plan will be established by the end of 2007. Natural Drainage SystemsNatural Drainage Systems
Pilot projects on storm water controlPilot projects on storm water control
Natural Drainage SystemsNatural Drainage Systems
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AntwerpAntwerpUpdating 1978Updating 1978--Sigma Plan to address the seaSigma Plan to address the sea--level rise.level rise.CostCost--benefit analysis to find an optimal solution.benefit analysis to find an optimal solution.
Combination of dike heightening with open spaces. Combination of dike heightening with open spaces. •• 1350 ha of Controlled Inundated Areas (CIAs) 1350 ha of Controlled Inundated Areas (CIAs) •• €€150 million ($192 million) of investment. 150 million ($192 million) of investment. •• Additional use of Controlled Reduced Tide Areas (CRTs).Additional use of Controlled Reduced Tide Areas (CRTs).
Requires 6000 ha of land for total implementation. Requires 6000 ha of land for total implementation. Estimated to take 25 years for revising landEstimated to take 25 years for revising land--use planning.use planning.
CRT FunctionCRT FunctionCIA FunctionCIA Function
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NetherlandsNetherlands1953 Flood 1953 Flood →→ Delta Project (1960~1997)Delta Project (1960~1997)1993 and 1995 floods1993 and 1995 floods
Short term: Flood Defense Act in 1996Short term: Flood Defense Act in 1996Long term: Water Policy in the 21st centuryLong term: Water Policy in the 21st century
•• Room for the River (Room for the River (€€2.2 billion ($2.8 billion) by 2015 )2.2 billion ($2.8 billion) by 2015 )
Long-term vision on the protection against extreme floods http://www.ruimtevoorderivier.nl/index.asp?p_id=423
The Flood of 1953http://www.deltawerken.com/89.html
Storm Surge Barrier Oosterschelde http://www.deltawerken.com/Deltaworks/23.html
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Galveston, TexasGalveston, Texas
Hurricane of 1900 deadliest natural disaster Hurricane of 1900 deadliest natural disaster ever in the United States, it caused 8,000 ever in the United States, it caused 8,000 deaths.deaths.Dredged sand used to raise city and seawall Dredged sand used to raise city and seawall built by 1905.built by 1905.City instituted commission government.City instituted commission government.Citing a recent EPA studyCiting a recent EPA study ““Anticipating Anticipating sea level rise could cut in half the eventual sea level rise could cut in half the eventual costs.costs.””
The History of The Great Storm in Pictureshttp://www.1900storm.com/photographs/index.lasso
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New EnglandNew EnglandNew England District of Army Corps of Engineers has New England District of Army Corps of Engineers has been leader in building of hurricane barriers. been leader in building of hurricane barriers. Instead of focusing on improving health of beaches, Instead of focusing on improving health of beaches, focus in New England has been on building of barriers.focus in New England has been on building of barriers.Barriers in New England were built in midBarriers in New England were built in mid--19601960’’s. Costs s. Costs in the vicinity of $20 million dollars (1960 dollars). in the vicinity of $20 million dollars (1960 dollars).
New Bedford
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London Climate Change London Climate Change PlanningPlanning
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London Climate Change London Climate Change Partnership Partnership
Goal: Guide Adaptive Measures for LondonGoal: Guide Adaptive Measures for LondonActivities:Activities:
Research programResearch programClimate forecasts and impacts assessmentClimate forecasts and impacts assessmentCase studies, focus on specific risksCase studies, focus on specific risks
Identification of strategiesIdentification of strategiesSpecific sectorsSpecific sectors
•• Transport: impacts, strategy recommendationsTransport: impacts, strategy recommendations•• Development: checklist for developmentDevelopment: checklist for development
Promotion with city agenciesPromotion with city agenciesElevate climate change adaptation as an issue in city agenciesElevate climate change adaptation as an issue in city agenciesMonitor progress on recommendationsMonitor progress on recommendationsComment on future agency plansComment on future agency plans
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Thames Estuary Plan 2100Thames Estuary Plan 2100Goal: develop flood risk management strategy for next Goal: develop flood risk management strategy for next centurycentury
Plan:Plan:Scoping phase (nearing completion)Scoping phase (nearing completion)Assess alternatives (next six years)Assess alternatives (next six years)Development (not before 2015)Development (not before 2015)Major development could be delayed beyond 2015 Major development could be delayed beyond 2015 depending on uncertainty in forecastsdepending on uncertainty in forecasts
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UK Planning FrameworkUK Planning Framework
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Lessons Learned from City StudiesLessons Learned from City Studies
Lots of research and planningLots of research and planningLong timelinesLong timelinesBroad range of climate impacts consideredBroad range of climate impacts consideredCityCity--wide agendawide agendaNearNear--term actions while planning for long term actions while planning for long termtermPrevention versus protectionPrevention versus protection
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ASSESSMENT
• Incorporate Scientific Updates into Model
•Cost Benefit Analysis
PRIORITY SETTING
•Master Plan for Next 5 years
ACTION
• Develop Spatial Threats Model
• Grant-Based Research
• Public PartnershipsPhase 1
2007-2011
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SCIENTIFIC REASSESSMENT
•Incorporate Adaptation Efforts & Scientific Updates into Spatial Threats Predictions
PRIORITY SETTING
•Master Plan for Next 5 years
ACTION
• Implement Pilot Projects
•Grant-Based Research
•Public Partnerships
•Public Awareness
Phase 22012-2016
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SCIENTIFIC REASSESSMENT
• Incorporate Adaptation Efforts & Scientific Updates into Spatial Threats Predictions
PRIORITY SETTING
•Master Plan for Next 5 years
ACTION
•Grant-Based Research
•Public Partnerships
•Project Implementation
Phase 3 2017 -
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Proposed BudgetProposed BudgetPhase One:Phase One:
Research and PlanningResearch and PlanningPhase Two:Phase Two:
Pilot ProgramsPilot Programs
Phase Three:Phase Three:Large Scale Large Scale
ImplementationImplementation20072007--20112011 20122012--20162016 20172017--20502050
Build institutional Build institutional capacitycapacity
Refine existing scientific Refine existing scientific datadata
Gather additional Gather additional informationinformation
Start public awareness Start public awareness campaigncampaign
Wetland Pilot ProjectWetland Pilot Project
Existing Capital ProjectExisting Capital Project
Seawall Blueprint ProjectSeawall Blueprint Project
Second 5Second 5--yr Forecastyr Forecast
ReassessReassess
Evaluate portfolio of Evaluate portfolio of mitigation techniques mitigation techniques
Create comprehensive Create comprehensive protection plan for NYCprotection plan for NYC
Implementation of large Implementation of large scale projectsscale projects
Major period of capital Major period of capital expenditureexpenditure
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Ten Year Proposed Budget for New York City Climate Change Agenda(All figures are in thousands of dollars)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Total 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Total 2017 ...2050Phase 1: Research and Planning Phase 2: Pilot Programs Phase 3: TBD
Personnel Service* Director 70 70 70 70 70 350 70 70 70 70 70 350 TBD TBD Grant Coordinator 70 70 70 70 70 350 70 70 70 70 70 350 TBD TBD Policy Analyst 70 70 70 70 70 350 70 70 70 70 70 350 TBD TBD Community Liaison 70 70 70 70 70 350 70 70 70 70 70 350 TBD TBD Research Manager 70 70 70 70 70 350 70 70 70 70 70 350 TBD TBD Project Manager 0 0 0 0 0 0 210 210 210 210 210 1,050 TBD TBD Assistants 160 160 160 160 160 800 200 200 200 200 200 1,000 TBD TBD Fringe Benefits** 102 102 102 102 102 510 152 152 152 152 152 760 TBD TBD Pensions 51 51 51 51 51 255 76 76 76 76 76 380 TBD TBD Subtotal 663 663 663 663 663 3,315 988 988 988 988 988 4,940 TBD TBDOther Than Personnel Service Overhead*** 204 204 204 204 204 1,020 304 304 304 304 304 1,520 TBD TBD Grants**** 0 8,000 2,000 2,000 1,000 13,000 500 500 500 500 500 2,500 TBD TBD Ongoing Planning***** 0 500 1,000 1,000 1,000 3,500 0 500 1,000 1,000 1,000 3,500 TBD TBD Public Awareness 500 500 500 500 500 2,500 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 5,000 TBD TBD Public Partnerships 200 200 200 200 200 1,000 200 200 200 200 200 1,000 TBD TBD Subtotal 904 9,404 3,904 3,904 2,904 21,020 2,004 2,504 3,004 3,004 3,004 13,520 TBD TBDProjects Wetland Pilot Project****** 0 0 0 0 0 0 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 25,000 TBD TBD Existing Capital Projects 0 0 0 0 0 0 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 15,000 TBD TBD Flood Proofing Pilot Project 0 0 0 0 0 0 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 12,500 TBD TBD Seawall Blueprint Project 0 0 0 0 0 0 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 12,500 TBD TBD Subtotal 0 0 0 0 0 0 13,000 13,000 13,000 13,000 13,000 65,000 TBD TBD
Total Expenditure 1,567 10,067 4,567 4,567 3,567 24,335 15,992 16,492 16,992 16,992 16,992 83,460 TBD TBD
Notes:* Average wage of senior employee assumed to be $70,000 and average wage of assistant assumed to be $40,000.** Pensions and Fringe Benefit both calculated at 10% and 20% of salaries respectively.*** All overhead costs (travel, rent, supplies, etc.) included in this line and assumed to be 40% of salaries.**** These funds will be used to collaborate with outside experts and much of the research needs to be done before pilot programs are implemented.***** The result of the ongoing planning will be period 5-year forecast updates that will inform the planning of the next phase.****** Average cost per acre of restoring wetland assumed to be $100,000 (converting brownfield to wetland is approx. 10 times this amount).
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ConclusionsConclusions
Need for research and planningNeed for research and planningAvoid reliance on single solutionAvoid reliance on single solutionBegin now!Begin now!
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Thank You!Thank You!
