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The Fiscal Cliff and Beyond Joel Packer, Principal, The Raben Group; Jpacker@rabengroup.com and Executive Director, Committee for Education Funding Slide 2 HOW DID WE GET TO THE FISCAL CLIFF? Slide 3 Record Deficits Registered in Last Four Years Source: Congressional Budget Office, Historical Tables. 3 U.S. Deficit and Surplus (Billions of Dollars) 2009 20121972 1996 Budget Deficit $1.13 T in FY 2012 The U.S. has long history of budget deficits, but deficits in last four years significantly larger than trend Surplus Deficit Slide 4 Slide 5 www.cbpp.org Debt as Share of GDP, 1940-2050, Under Current Policies 5 Source: CBPP based on Congressional Budget Office data, January 2010. Slide 6 Fiscal Year 2012 Outlays EPA = 0.2% Slide 7 Final FY 11 and 12 Appropriations 7 FY 11 cut ED (other than Pell) by $1.2 billion. FY 12 total ED funding cut by $233 million. All programs cut by 0.189% across-the-board cut. EPA has been cut by $1.9 billion since FY 10. Slide 8 The Budget Control Act of 2011 How small will the box be? 8 Slide 9 Caps and Cuts BCA set in law discretionary caps for ten years (FY 12-FY 21). Reduced spending by more than $900 billion over ten years. Supercommittee failure triggered sequestration. $1.2 trillion in automatic cuts between FY 13-21; 50% from defense, 50% from nondefense FY 13 cuts now reduced and delayed until March 1, 2013. However, other than Impact Aid, education cuts would not start until July 2013. 9 Slide 10 Sequestration = Largest Education Cuts Ever! FY 13 = fixed percentage across-the-board cuts. CEF projects a cut of 5.9% = $2.9 billion for ED. Head Start cut $473 million. Pell grants exempt in first year. FY 14-21 will not be ACB cut; further lowers discretionary caps Squeezes education $; Pell no longer exempt. 10 Slide 11 Impact of Sequestration in FY 13 Slide 12 Education Department Funding 12 In billions Slide 13 FY 13 sequester level = $7.9 Sequester would cut EPA $500 million Slide 14 FY 2013 SEQUESTER CUTS FALL ON THE SMALLEST PIECES OF THE BUDGET 14 Mandatory $2,160B Tax Expenditures $1,343B Defense Discretionary* $729B Domestic Discretionary* $504B $43B 50% of Sequester$27B 32% of Sequester$16B Non-Defense 50%Defense 50% Sources: Congressional Budget Office, Donald Marron and Tax Policy Center using data from the Office of Management and Budget and Treasury * These amounts include all discretionary budgetary resources for the duration of FY 2013, not solely the non-exempt monies that are subject to sequester. Additionally, the figures assume that a continuing resolution at FY 2012 levels is enacted for FY 2013, that war funding (Overseas Contingency Operations funds) is provided at the level requested by the president. Defense discretionary funds include unobligated balances from prior years, which are subject to sequester. Cuts Slide 15 WHATS IN THE FISCAL CLIFF DEAL? Raises tax rates on individuals/households earning $400k/$450k or more Makes Bush-era tax cuts permanent for all other taxpayers Raises tax rates for capital gains/dividends from 15% to 20% for same incomes Raises estate tax from 35% to 40%, with first $5M exempted Phases out personal exemptions and limits itemized deductions for individuals/households earning $250k/$300k 15 Slide 16 WHATS IN THE FISCAL CLIFF DEAL? Permanently indexes AMT to inflation Extends American Opportunity Tax Credit, Child Tax Credit, and Earned Income Tax Credit for five years Preserves extenders, includes several education tax breaks Allows temporary 2% payroll tax cut to expire Extends unemployment insurance for one year Extends Medicare Doc fix for one year 16 Slide 17 WHATS IN THE FISCAL CLIFF DEAL? 2 month delay in sequester $24 billion reduction paid for with $12 billion in revenues and $12 billion in spending cuts $6 billion in defense cuts and $6 billion in NDD cuts Reduces across-the-board cut form 8.2% to 5.9%. 17 Slide 18 OUTLOOK Multiple Cliffs Debt Ceiling reached by end of February Republicans demanding more cuts Sequester set to hit on March 1 Repealing entire sequester costs $960 billion. White House wants 50% new revenues/50% spending cuts Six-month CR expires on March 27, 2013 Provides small 0.612% across-the-board increase Sequester cuts if they happen will be from CR levels. CR has no effect on the sequester. 18 Slide 19 2012 Debt Limit Crisis Could Lead to Default Source: National Journal Research, 2012, Analyst: Changes of U.S. Default Now 20%, Damian Paletta, January 1, 2013, Wall Street Journal. 19 Debt Limit Reached U.S. hits $16.4T debt limit; U.S. Treasury Secretary takes extraordinary measures to avoid default Congress Passes American Taxpayer Relief Act Sequester delayed by two months; Congress postpones debt reduction deal and negotiations to raise the debt ceiling February 2013 Congress Negotiates Congress debates how to reduce the national debt and whether to raise the debt ceiling Updated 1/3/13 Possible Default on U.S. Debt Obligations Failure to reach a debt reduction deal or raise the debt ceiling could cause the U.S. to default on debt obligations, throwing financial markets into a tailspin March 2013 Slide 20 Questions? 20