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WI, CEM, LUCSUS Brussels Nov. 08
The FORESCENE project:Developing scenarios and
modelling for sustainabilityStefan Bringezu, Mathieu Saurat, Roy Haines-Young, Alison
Rollett, Mats Svensson
Final Round-Table Workshop "New Approaches and RecentResults of Sustainability Scenario Building and Modelling"
Brussels, 25 Nov. 2008
WI, CEM, LUCSUS Brussels Nov. 08
Background and overview of project
The questions: 1 to 6
The FORESCENE Meta-Model
The scenarios
Contents
WI, CEM, LUCSUS Brussels Nov. 08
Background and overview of the FORESCENE project
WI, CEM, LUCSUS Brussels Nov. 08
Need of a framework for creating sustainabilityscenarios integrating different environmental topics(water, soil, resource use etc.)
Need for access to scenarios that can be used forstrategic policy preparation in the context of theSustainable Development Strategy.
Need to understand the key driving forces and theircross-cutting linkages, which lead to increasedpressure on the environment.
Initial points
WI, CEM, LUCSUS Brussels Nov. 08
FORESCENE is developping an analytical frameworkfor consistent environmental sustainabilityscenario building (forecasting, backcasting,simulation) in areas such as water, soil,biodiversity, waste and natural resources.
There is a focus on backcasting, to identify differentscenarios leading to the achievement of future targets.
Objectives
WI, CEM, LUCSUS Brussels Nov. 08
•describe the chosen environmental problems,review policy objectives and indicators, anddetermine the cross-cutting driving forces;
•develop core elements of integrated sustainabilityscenarios (goal definition);
•determine cross-sectoral measures andprocesses to be considered for change (pre-backcasting);
•address quantitative and qualitative parametersfor measurement (parametrization);
•develop a Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenarioframework and example projections(forecasting);
•develop alternative scenarios (incl.backcasting);
•check the options for modelling, and
•work out conclusions.
Overview of project tasks
WI, CEM, LUCSUS Brussels Nov. 08
a
1) What is the problem?
2) Where shall we go to?
3) How to get there?
4) How to measure and modelthis?
5) What is likely to happenwith BAU?
6) Which alternative scenariosare possible?
WI, CEM, LUCSUS Brussels Nov. 08
Question 1: What is the problem?
WI, CEM, LUCSUS Brussels Nov. 08
Conceptual Basis
Socio-industrialmetabolism andDPSIR framework
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Answeringquestion 1
Highest scoringcross-cutting factorsfor biodiversity/soils,water, resources/waste:- globalization,- composition of material input,- material intensity,- depletion of resources
WI, CEM, LUCSUS Brussels Nov. 08
Question 2: Where shall we go to?
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Outlining a desirable futureTowards sustainability goal references
WI, CEM, LUCSUS Brussels Nov. 08
Outlining a desirable futureTowards sustainability goal references
WI, CEM, LUCSUS Brussels Nov. 08
Outlining a desirable futureTowards sustainability goal references
WI, CEM, LUCSUS Brussels Nov. 08
Answering question 2Sustainability goal references
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Question 3: How to get there ?
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Answering question 3Cross-sectoral, multi-beneficial sustainability strategies
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Answering question 3Policy strategies and measures
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Question 4: How to measure and model this ?
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Requirements for modelling
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Structure of the FORESCENE Meta Model
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Important:
The Bayesian network approach is not seen in FORESCENE as areplacement of other models in current use but rather as a meansof integrating different forms of knowledge, whether from existingmodels, reported data or expert judgement.
In other words, the Bayesian network approach is used toconstruct a meta-model.
Disclaimer
WI, CEM, LUCSUS Brussels Nov. 08
• Inputs (drivers, strategies) are considered at EU level
• Outputs (environmental impacts associated with EU) are consideredat world level (except for water)
General model structure
WI, CEM, LUCSUS Brussels Nov. 08
Mineral materialsmodule
Water module
Economymodule
Fossil energymodule
Biofuelmodule
Biomass and agriland use module
Biodiversity andsoils module
GHG module
The FORESCENE Meta Modelmain modules
The modules areseparately developedBayesian networks
Modules can evolveindependently, due todifferent levels ofknowledge.
"Hard" evidence(functions) can becombined with "soft"expert judgement
Results are given asprobabilities
WI, CEM, LUCSUS Brussels Nov. 08
Mineral materials moduleOverview of the structure
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Mineral materials moduleOverview of the structure
TMRminerals
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Different modules model target indicators of environmental impact underthe influence of drivers and control parameters whose values can bemodified to test the efficiency of sustainability strategies.
Detailed model structure
WI, CEM, LUCSUS Brussels Nov. 08
Different modules model target indicators of environmental impact underthe influence of drivers and control parameters whose values can bemodified to test the efficiency of sustainability strategies.
Detailed model structure
WI, CEM, LUCSUS Brussels Nov. 08
Different modules model target indicators of environmental impact underthe influence of drivers and control parameters whose values can bemodified to test the efficiency of sustainability strategies.
Detailed model structure
WI, CEM, LUCSUS Brussels Nov. 08
Different modules model target indicators of environmental impact underthe influence of drivers and control parameters whose values can bemodified to test the efficiency of sustainability strategies.
Detailed model structure
WI, CEM, LUCSUS Brussels Nov. 08
Bayesian networks do not allow for intrinsic modelling of time dynamics ina satisfactory way.
Time dimension
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Format of results
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Question 5: What happens with BAU ?
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Initial conditions
- Initial year is 2000 (or 2005 in when data available)- Initial values are directly taken or estimated from reported or
modelled data (e.g. Eurostat), or derived from expert judgement
Assumptions for forecasting:
- Time frame: 2000-2050- Assumptions for growth rates are directly taken or estimated
from existing studies and models (e.g. EEA environmentoutlook)
Uncertainties
- They are implemented as normal distributions- For example: when two different sources give the values x and y
for a given variable A, the representation of A in the BN can be anormal distribution with mean = (x+y)/2 and 90% CI = |x-y|/2
Baseline scenario
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Baseline scenario
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Question 6: Which alternative scenarios are possible ?
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Developing alternative scenarios
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Alternative scenarios
AS1,Commitment tochange
Under this scenario there is clear commitment tothe goals of sustainability. There are markedimprove-ments in the efficiencies of using energy,materials and water, and there is expan-sion inrenewable energy production. The rate of change ismoderate to high and significant improvementshave mostly been achieved by 2030. …..
AS2, Muddlingthrough
Under this scenario some of the sustainability goalsidentified are achieved in the medium term, butsuccess is patchy and modest.……
AS3, Failing todeliver
Under this scenario the transition to sustainabilityhas been unsuccessful or weak. Increasedconsumption of resource intensive goods hasmeant that there has been less progress towardshigher energy and resource efficiency…..
WI, CEM, LUCSUS Brussels Nov. 08
Scenario: Commitment for change impacts on biodiversity status
NGHGE: Global greenhouse gas emissio...
GHG 40-50 GtCO2 equiv per ...GHG 50-60 GtCO2 equiv per ...GHG 60-70 GtCO2 equiv per ...
1.0921.577.5
74.3 ± 15
•GHG emissions:• Base line to 2025• Mid range, 2030-3035• Low range 2035-2050
•After 2025:• Low non-compliance in agriculture• Green forest management• Strong soil framework directive
Base-line
2050 - baseline
NGHGE: Global greenhouse gas emissio...
GHG 40-50 GtCO2 equiv per ...GHG 50-60 GtCO2 equiv per ...GHG 60-70 GtCO2 equiv per ...
0 +.019 100
80 ± 12
2050 - alternative
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Scenario: Commitment for change impacts on biodiversity status (intra EU)
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Scenario: Commitment for change impacts on biodiversity status (intra EU)
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Alternative scenario:Commitment to change
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Alternative scenario:Muddling through
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Alternative scenario:Failing to deliver
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Modelling exercise
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Modelling exercise
WI, CEM, LUCSUS Brussels Nov. 08
Modelling exercise
WI, CEM, LUCSUS Brussels Nov. 08
Reduction of TMR reduces domestic and foreign wastegeneration
Environmental burden shifting is reduced:- no land use change/pressure on biodiverstiy in otherregions due to biofuels- reduced foreign TMR/mining waste
Water consumption tends to decline due to- reduced cooling water demand energy supply- reduced material use in manufacturing
Improved biodiversity due to mitigated GHGemissions (and additional measures)
Synergistic effects of modelledstrategies
WI, CEM, LUCSUS Brussels Nov. 08
Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and EnergyMathieu Sauratphone:+ 49 202 2992 312fax: + 49 202 2992 138email: [email protected]
www.forescene.eu
Contact