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The French and European aviation market 10 th French Connect – Bordeaux Monday 1 July 2013 Ralph Anker Chief Analyst anna.aero [email protected]
The French and European
aviation market
10th French Connect – Bordeaux
Monday 1 July 2013
Ralph Anker Chief Analyst
anna.aero [email protected]
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What’s coming up …
• Developments in Europe 2011-2013
• France:
– French airport traffic development in 2012 (and 2013 so far)
– Leading country markets and airlines in S13 v S12
– Inter-regional route stimulation by LCCs in 2012
– New French routes 2012 analysed
– Volotea, Air France’s regional hubs, transavia.com France, HOP!
– New French routes 2013 analysed
• Europe:
– Comparison of airport growth across Europe in 2012
– International country-pair and domestic capacity S13 v S12
– GDP forecasts
• Conclusions
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Developments in Europe 2011
• No major flight disruptions due to natural phenomena
– Some disruption due to industrial action
• Lufthansa decides to sell bmi; IAG close to deal?
• Germany and Austria introduced additional air taxes
• Flybe launches Nordic operations
• “Arab spring”: Social unrest in Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain
• Europe’s ‘legacy’ airlines struggle for profits
– Major LCCs still making decent money
• Ryanair opens bases in Gran Canaria, Tenerife, Lanzarote
& Manchester
• Frankfurt opens third runway
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Developments in Europe 2012
• Aviation joins EU ETS in 2012
• Collapse of two significant European airlines in early 2012
– Malev (Hungary) & Spanair (Spain): who’s next?
• AirAsia X departs Europe, Hong Kong Airlines arrives
• Fuel prices remaining high – EU economy still struggling
• easyJet opens new bases in London Southend, Lisbon, Nice
and Toulouse
• Ryanair opens new bases in Billund, Budapest, Karlsruhe-
Baden, Palma de Mallorca and Paphos (‘50th’)
• First appearance of 787 in Europe (HND-FRA)
• Launch of Volotea, closure of bmibaby
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Developments in Europe 2013
• EU ETS on-going saga
• Many legacy carriers struggling for profitability
– Lufthansa “outsourcing” short-haul non-hub routes to germanwings
– Air France creates HOP! from regional subsidiaries
• Airline mergers and co-operation
– Delta/Virgin, IAG/Vueling (not Ryanair/Aer Lingus)
• Ryanair opens new bases in Maastricht, Eindhoven,
Krakow, Zadar, Chania, Fez, Marrakech
• Norwegian goes long-haul / easyJet to Moscow
• Turkish Airlines passes 200 destinations from IST
• Boeing 787 grounded but now flying again
• Airbus A350 makes first flight
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Largest French Airports: LCC impact
Airport Pax:12 % vly LCC:12 LCC% LCC “growth”
1 Nice 11.19m +7.4% 3.84m 34% +11.9%
2 Lyon 8.45m +0.2% 1.84m 22% +15.1%
3 Marseille 8.30m +12.7% 1.82m 22% +31.0%
4 Toulouse 7.56m +8.2% 1.91m 25% +18.6%
5 Basel-Mulhouse 5.35m +6.0% 2.72m 51% +3.9%
6 Bordeaux 4.43m +7.7% 1.35m 30% +38.0%
7 Paris Beauvais 3.86m +5.0% 3.86m 100% +5.0%
8 Nantes 3.63m +11.9% 1.10m 30% +55.2%
9 Lille 1.40m +20.0% 0.33m 24% +130.9%
10 Montpellier 1.29m -1.9% 0.40m 31% +5.0%
Source: www.aeroport.fr
Paris CDG 61.56m +1.0% 5.36m 9% -1.3%
Paris ORY 27.23m +0.3% 6.85m 25% +6.2%
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Overall international seat capacity growth of 4.2% US passes Germany for 4th place
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TLS - LIL now #10 with 177k pax (+61%) NCE - LIL now #12 with 167k pax (+63%)
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New French airport services Started operating between 1 January and 31 December 2012
Airport Routes Airlines included
1 Nantes 30 Air France, easyJet, flybe, transavia (F), Volotea, Vueling
2 Nice 28 Air France, British Airways, easyJet, jetairfly,
Monarch, Norwegian, SkyWork, Swiss, Vueling
3 Toulouse 23 Air France, easyJet, Jet2.com
4 Marseille 22 Air France, British Airways, Norwegian, Ryanair
5 Paris CDG 20 Air China, Air France, Delta, easyJet, flybe,
SAS, SmartWings, WOW air, XL Airways France
6 Paris Orly 19 easyJet, Transaero, transavia (F), Vueling
7 Bordeaux 17 Air France, easyJet, Ryanair, Volotea, Vueling
8 Strasbourg 13 Air France, Twinjet, Volotea, Vueling
9= Grenoble 12 Jet2.com, Monarch, Norwegian, Volotea
9= Lyon 12 Air France, easyJet, Emirates, Lufthansa,
Vueling, WOW air
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New French airport routes Started operating between 1 January and 31 December 2012
• Total of 294 (156) new routes involving 44 (31) French
airports and 45 (43) airlines (2011 figures for comparison)
• Leading airlines:
– Air France Group 57 new routes; avge 2.6 weekly flights (151)
– Volotea 56 new routes: average 2.5 weekly flights (141)
– Ryanair 31 new routes; average 3.2 weekly flights (99)
– easyJet 25 new routes; average 3,6 weekly flights (90)
• Leading country markets (41 countries got new routes)
– France 98 new routes (49 routes double-counted)
– Spain 37 new routes
– Italy 29 new routes
– UK 25 new routes
– Germany 11 new routes
Volotea
• Launched in April 2012 with 717s by founders of Vueling
• Headquartered in Barcelona
– But bases are in Bordeaux, Nantes, Palermo, Venice
• Focus on “thin” routes in Italy and France (3.2 flights/wk)
– Mostly new routes with no competition
• 125 (250) routes launched so far!
– 87 routes from French airports: 56 in 2012 and 31 in 2013
• High level of route “churn”:
– 38 routes started in S13, 32 dropped
• Significant seasonality in operations
– 85 routes served in S12, just 20 routes served in W12
– 91 routes served in S13
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Air France’s regional hubs
• What has happened to the routes launched in 2011 and
2012 from Marseille, Toulouse and Nice?
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Marseille Toulouse Nice
October 2011 [Jul13] April 2012 [Jul13] April 2012 [Jul13]
Athens (4) [5] Athens (4) [4] Athens (3) [3] Basel (7) [end 30 July 2012] Berlin Tegel (4) [2] Naples (2) v easyJet [2] Beirut (3) [3] Casablanca (3) v RAM [4] Tel Aviv (3) v Israir [4] Biarritz (2) [3] Hamburg (5) [3] Venice (3) v easyJet [3] Brest (7) v Ryanair [3] Istanbul IST (3) v Turkish AL [1] Casablanca (4) v RAM [3] Malaga (3) v Vueling [2] Copenhagen (2) [3] Malta (2) [3] Dusseldorf (7) [end 01 Sep 2012] Marrakech (2) v RAM [2] Eindhoven (3) v Ryanair [end 02 Feb 2012] Naples (2) [2] Istanbul IST (4) [2] Prague (5) [3] Moscow SVO (4) [5] Seville (4) v Iberia [4] Milan MXP (14) v Ryanair (BGY) [end 30 Mar 2013] Tunis (4) v Tunisair [2] Prague (2) [3] Venice (3) v easyJet, Vueling [3] Vienna (4) [end 27 Oct 2012]
March 2012
April 12 (48) Jul13 [35]
Barcelona (2) v Vueling [end 02 Sep 2012]
Hamburg (4) [end 27 Oct 2012] Did not start Did not start Marrakech (3) v RAM, Ryanair [3] Brussels v Brussels AL, easyJet Barcelona v easyJet, IB, Vueling Venice (5) [5] Geneva v easyJet Istanbul v Turkish AL
HOP!
• The new Air France brand for ‘regional’ operations that
combines Airlinair, Brit Air and Régional
• Combined fleet of around 100 aircraft
– 14 ATR 42s, 9 ATR 72s, 32 Bombardier CRJs (100ERs, 700s, 1000s)
– 20 Embraer regional jets (ERJ145s), 26 E-Jets (16 E170, 10 E190)
• Operates over 500 flights per day
– Around 280-290 with HOP! as marketing airline
– Around 210-220 with Air France as marketing airline
• HOP! operates around 100 of its “own” routes
– 51 airports: 35 in France, 16 in rest of Europe (HOP! website)
• Also operates around 50 routes for Air France
– Operating to some 40 airports across Europe
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New French airport services Planned to start between 1 January and 31 December 2013
Airport Routes Airlines included
1 Paris CDG 20 Air France, Darwin Airline, Delta, easyJet,
SAS, Turkish Airlines, United Airlines, XL Airways
2 Nice 14 Czech Airlines, flybe, flyNonstop, Jet2.com, SAS
3 Lille 13 easyJet, HOP!, transavia (F), Volotea
4= Marseille 12 Air Méditerranée, Ryanair, Turkish, XL Airways
4= Paris Orly 12 Air France, Norwegian, transavia (F), Vueling
6= Ajaccio 10 HOP!, Norwegian, Swiss, transavia (F), Volotea
6= Lyon 10 Aegean, bmi regional, easyJet, flybe, transavia (F)
8= Strasbourg 8 HOP!, Ryanair, Volotea
8= Bastia 8 easyJet, HOP!, Volotea
10 Nantes 7 easyJet, Ryanair, transavia (F), Volotea
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New French airport routes Planned to start between 1 January and 31 December 2013
• Total of 180 (294) new routes involving 38 (44) French
airports and 43 (45) airlines (2012 figures for comparison)
• Leading airlines:
– Name Routes Wk Freq AWF
– Volotea 31 58 1.9
– Air France/HOP! 25 85 3.4
– Ryanair 27 56 2.1
– transavia.com France 18 49 2.7
• Leading country markets (31 countries to get new routes)
– France 60 new routes (30 routes double-counted)
– Morocco 22 new routes
– UK 16 new routes
– Italy 12 new routes
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LCCs still growing in 2012
pax up 4.0% to 79.6 million
pax up 6.7% to 59.2 million
pax up 11.2% to 17.7 million
pax up 16.8% to 14.8 million
pax up 19.5% to 13.5 million
pax up 12.0% to >12 million
Top 7 European airlines/airline groups in 2012 (by pax)
1 – Ryanair (79.6m), 2 – Air France/KLM (77.4m), 3 – Lufthansa Group
(74.5m), 4 – easyJet (59.2m), 5 – IAG (BA/Iberia) (54.5m), 6 -Turkish
Airlines (39.0m), 7 – airberlin (33.3m)
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Comparison across Europe Versus Germany, Italy, Spain and UK (2012)
Country Airport pax % vly >1m* Car Sales^
UK 223.8m +0.7% 21 +11.0%
Germany 201.4m +1.1% 18 -9.9%
Spain 194.2m -5.0% 20 -2.6%
France** 157.6m +3.0% 17 -10.4%
Italy 146.6m -1.2% 23 -8.0%
*Number of airports with more than 1 million annual passengers
**Includes Basle-Mulhouse (BSL) airport.
^ Source: ACEA (18 June 2013) – Sales in May 2013 v May 2012
Source: UK CAA, ADV, Aena, www.aeroport.fr, Assaeroporti
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France – UK moves up 2 places despite drop in seats France – Italy passes Spain - Italy
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Turkey jumps from #3 last year to #1 in 2013 France overtakes Russia to be #5 Greece, Italy, Spain all down more than 10%
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Conclusions
• Paris airports (BVA, CDG, ORY) accounted for only 17% of
new French routes (50/294) in 2012 down from 25% in
2011. In 2013 (so far) Paris airports account for around
21% of new French routes (38/180).
• Capacity analysis indicates only modest growth in Europe
this summer, but varies significantly by country markets
• GDP forecasts similar to last year (so not great …)
• Europe’s legacy carriers face major short-haul challenges
leading to potential industrial unrest
