PROGNOSFRUIT 2012
Toulouse, 3 August 2012
The Fruit Juice PerspectiveThe Fruit Juice Perspective
1
Jan Hermans
Secretary General
AIJN. European Fruit Juice Association
Content
PRESENTING AIJN
A HELICOPTER VIEW OF FRUIT JUICE IN THE EU
1
2
2
THE SLICE OF APPLE JUICE
SOURCING OF RAW MATERIAL-A GLOBAL BUSINESS
THE FERMENTED VERSION
3
4
5
� Created in 1958 as a special Common Market Committee within
the International Federation of Fruit Juice Producers
� Independant organization since 1962
� The Association represents the EU fruit juice industry from the
raw materials producers to the bottlers
1. Presenting AIJN
The European Fruit Juice Association
3
raw materials producers to the bottlers
� The main aim of the AIJN is to work for the best possible
political, regulatory and economic framework at EU level in
order to add value and promote the growth of the fruit juice
industry
Full & Affiliated Members
NORTH SEA
Denmark
Finland
Poland
Germany
Czech
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania
Belarus
Ukraine
Russia
Ireland
Great Britain
Norway
Nether-
lands
Belgium
Full Members
Affiliated MembersSweden
4
ATLANTIC OCEAN
MEDITERRANEAN SEA
France
Spain
Portugal
Greece
ItalyTurkey
Switzer-land
Austria
CzechRepublic
RomaniaHungary
SlovakiaMoldova
BulgariaMonte-negro
Serbia
Slovenia
CroatiaBosnia-Herze-govina
Mace-donia
Albania
Luxembourg
Malta
Cyprus
OBSERVER MEMBERS
5
Russian Union
of Juice
Producers
2. Fruit Juice in the EU. “A helicopter view”EU: Total fruit juice and nectars Population: 504,4 million
Volume, million litres 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 % change
Total 11,310 11,326 11,777 11,017 10,771 -2.2%
Private label 4,362 4,632 4,864 4,821 4,714 -2.2%
Branded 6,948 6,694 6,313 6,196 6,057 -2.3%
Fruit juice (100% juice content)
Total fruit juice 7,294 7,228 7,208 7,170 7,037 -1.9%
Private label 3,153 3,210 3,341 3,317 3,233 -2.5%
Share
43.8 %
56.2 %
Share
65.33
46 % Private label 3,153 3,210 3,341 3,317 3,233 -2.5%
Branded 4,141 4,018 3,867 3,853 3,804 -1.3%
Chilled 1,248 1,281 1,283 1,321 1,354 2.5%
Ambient 6,047 5,947 5,924 5,849 5,683 -2.8%
From concentrate 5,911 5,717 5,624 5,525 5,281 -4.4%
Not from concentrate 1,384 1,511 1,584 1,645 1,756 6.7%
Nectars (25-99% juice content)
Total nectars 4,016 4,098 3,970 3,847 3,734 -2.9%
Private label 1,209 1,422 1,523 1,504 1,481 -1.5%
Branded 2,807 2,676 2,446 2,343 2,253 -3.8%
46 %
54 %
19 %
81 %
75%
25%
34.67
40 %
60 %
Share of total EU market
of 10,771 M litres
• Germany (2,733) 25.4 %
• France (1,713) 15.9 %
• UK (1,369) 12.7 %
• Spain (1,068) 9.9 %
• Italy ( 808) 7.5 %
5 MS have share of 71.4 %
Largest EU FJN markets by volume consumption 2011
Largest EU FJN markets by per capita consumption 2011Largest EU FJN markets by per capita consumption 2011
Per capita consumption FJN in world
regions in l per person (population)
• EU 27 21.2 (504.4)
• West Europe 23.7 (415.4)
• East Europe 13.9 (400.3)
• North America 28.3 (345.1)
• Latin America 5.7 (599.5)
• Asia Pacific 1.7 (3,927,7)
• Africa & Mid East 2.8 (1,261,7)
Evolution of total FJN consumption (million l)10 years to end up back where we started
8
The Fruit Juice Belt vs Nectars Belt
Denmark
Finland
Poland
Germany
Czech
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania
Ireland
Great Britain
Norway
Nether-
lands
Belgium
Sweden˃ 70 % FJ
˃ 60 % FN
France
Spain
Portugal
Greece
Italy
Turkey
Switzer-land
Austria
CzechRepublic
RomaniaHungary
Slovakia
Bulgaria
Slovenia
Belgium
Lux
Malta
Cyprus
DK 99- FIN 88-IRL/UK/B 86- L 82- S 79- F 78 – GR 77- D 70 I 80- P 77- BG 76- SLO 67- RO/LT 62- LV 65
But at least consumers are trading up (million l)
10
They still like orange (million l)
Juice, EU24
11
Countries & Flavors
Denmark
Finland
PolandGermany
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania
Ireland
Great Britain
Norway
Nether-
lands
Belgium
Sweden
˃ 50 % Orange JN
< 25 % Orange JN
France
Spain
Portugal
Greece
Italy
Turkey
Switzer-land
Austria
CzechRepublic
RomaniaHungary
Slovakia
Bulgaria
Slovenia
Belgium
Lux
Malta
Cyprus
3. The slice of Apple Juice% Apple JN in total FJN consumption per country
Denmark
Finland
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania
Ireland
Great Britain
Norway
Nether-
Sweden
30 – 33%
20 – 29.9%
15 – 19.9%
10 – 14.9%
1 – 9.9%Poland
France
Germany
Spain
Portugal
Greece
Italy
Turkey
Switzer-land
Austria
CzechRepublic
RomaniaHungary
Slovakia
Bulgaria
Great Britain
Slovenia
Nether-
lands
Belgium
Lux
Malta
1 – 9.9%
Cyprus
GER
4.Sourcing of FJ raw materials. A global businessRabobank Fruit Juice Map - 2010
Sourcing of raw materials for the EU FJ industry- 2011
Ukraine
7.5
Chile
9
AJC use by FJN industry
EU imports 228,000
Poland to EU 145,000
Poland 15,000
Germany 100,000
Italy 30,000
Other EU 100,000
Total 618,000 t
5. The fermented version
Volumein ‘000 HL
2012
CAGR2005 -
2012
19.2
MHL
Global
8.9%5.3% 23.3% 7.2% 4.5% 9.6% 1.6% -0.1% 6.0%
Regional Variations
<1 2 <13 <1<1 3 1 16Per
Capita
2012
Source: Canadean - proprietary figures
Cider 000’s HL Geographic Mix
Source: Canadean - proprietary figures
Cider type by region
Source: Canadean - proprietary figures
Cider 000’s HL By TypeCider 000’s HL By Type
Pear & Flavours Driving Growth
Source: Canadean - proprietary figures
AICV. European Cider and Fruit Wine Association
5
Denmark
Finland
Poland
Germany
Czech
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania
Ireland
Great Britain
Norway
Nether-
lands
Belgium
Sweden
France
Spain
Portugal
Greece
Italy
Turkey
Switzer-land
Austria
CzechRepublic
RomaniaHungary
Slovakia
Bulgaria
Slovenia
Belgium
Lux
Malta
Cider & Perry production figures 2011 + estimated AJC & PJC used
Country Cider & Perry
Total Production in million litres
Volumes of juice needed in million liters
Quantity of juice concentrate needed in Tons
Belgium 45,00 22,50 3750,00
Denmark 10,00 1,50 250,00
Finland 50,00 10,00 1670,00
France 100,00 100,00 16700,00France 100,00 100,00 16700,00
Germany 55,00 55,00 9200,00
Ireland 150,00 67,50 11270,00
Lithuania 20,00 10,00 1670,00
Spain 90,00 90,00 15000,00
Sweden 50,00 7,50 1250,00
UK 950,00 380,00 63500,00
TOTAL 1520,00 124.260,00
Volumes of juice needed for cider production are based upon estimated average % juice content in cider per country. This varies from 15 to 100 % depending on nat. Legislation.Assumption: 1 kg AJC (70 Brix) makes 5,99 litres AJ at 11,18 BrixBased upon estimated % of pear juice used the quantity of pear concentrate would be 10.185 t. Bittersweet juice concentrate in the 114.075 t of AJC estimated at 42.495 t
Thank you for
your attention
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