The Future

May 2, 2013

Opportunities to discuss course content

• Today 11-2

• No Office Hours Tomorrow or During Finals Week

• Turn papers in by 11:59AM to Doyle 226B

Learning Objectives

• Discuss the Electoral College and the strategy of presidential campaigns

• Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process

Changes for the Future

THE ELECTORAL COLLEGEIt will Survive

The Map Favors the Democrats

District Plan

• Maine and Nebraska use this system

• Popular with the party that Controls the House of Representatives

• Could pass without an amendment

National Popular Vote Interstate Compact

• Would provide a back door to 538

• Popular after 2000

• Momentum has Slowed

• Now largely partisan

Why No Change

• To Difficult to Amend the Constitution

• More hits than Misses

• The Fear of Unanticipated Consequences

WHAT OF THE PRIMARIES AND CONVENTIONS

The Republicans

• Didn’t Like their 2008 Rules

• Didn’t Like their 2012 Rules

• Will Reevaluate for 2016

The Conventions

• The late convention is no longer a financial positive

• Low Ratings, Low Excitement

• 3 Days and earlier Dates

Big Money

• Outcome

• Corporations have stayed quiet

• Develop new strategies

• Big $ likely to stay

WAS 2012 PART OF A REALIGNMENT?

Short Term Deviations

• Congressional Elections

• Weaker partisan ties

• Poor challengers

• These can result in a landslide for one party

What is a Realignment

• A Durable shift in voting Patterns

• The New Party Kills the Old

• Majority Parties become minorities

Who Switches in a Realignment

• Hard Cores do not switch

• Independents do

• New Voters

• Weak partisans become strong Partisans

What Causes a Realignment

• Economic or social crisis

• Failure of the party to interpret change

• A changed electorate

The Policy Implications

• A mandate for change

• Major New Policies

• Continued electoral success

Options for the Losers

• Ignore the issue

• Try to absorb it

• Change

Kinds of Realignments

• Secular Realignments- happen over time

• Regional Realignments

• Critical Elections

Maintaining Deviating

Converting Realigning

same

change

VICTORY Defeat

Types of Election

Majority Party

A Realigning Election

• The Actual Critical Election– 1800– 1860– 1896– 1930

• High Intensity

• High Turnout

A Maintaining Election

• A boring election

• The party in power remains in power

• 1936, 1940, 1944, 1948, 1960

Deviating Election

• The Out party does well

• No shift in long term partisanship

• Caused by short-term factors

• 1912, 1916, 1952, 1956

Converting Election

• The out party is gaining seats

• The precursor to a realignment (1930)

• The majority party keeps control.

WAS 2008-2012 A REALIGNMENT?

Supporters of A Realignment

• 2006

• 2008

• 2012

Does it meet the criteria?

Criteria

1. A realignment gives rise to new dominant voter cleavage over interests ideological tendencies or issues

2. A realignment is preceded or contemporaneous with a good showing by a third party

Criteria II

3. Voter Turnout is higher in a realigning election

4. Electoral Realignments bring about long spans of unified party control of the government

Voter Turnout Went Down

Criteria III

5. A realignment brings about sharp and durable changes in the electorate

Realignments do not take vacations

A Shrinking margin of Victory

• Obama’s margin shrank from 2008 by 2%

• Only 1.3% higher than Bush’s Re-election

The Parties have been Competitive

Republicans• President- 72, 80, 84, 88

2000, 2004 (24 years)

• Senate- 1981-1986, 1995-2006 (18 years)

• House- 1995-2006, 2011-2015- 16 years

Democrats• President- 76, 92, 96, 08,12

(20 years)

• Senate- 1973-1980, 1989-1994, 2007-2015 (22 years)

• House- 1972-1994, 2007-2010 (26 years)

THE REPUBLICANSBad and Good News

Bad News

• Republican Policy wars

• The lack of New Ideas

• The Demographic Bubble

Outreach does not need to be massive

• They do not need to win all the votes

• They may benefit from an increasingly diverse democratic Party

• Can use State legislators as a farm team

THE DEMOCRATSGood and Bad News

The Durability of the Obama Coalition

• It weathered a slow economy

• A bad midterm

• Divisive policy initiatives

Advantages

• Demographics

– African Americans– Latinos– Asian-Americans

• The Movement of Professionals to the Democrats

• In 2012

– Women moved Iowa and New Hampshire

– Latinos Moved Colorado, Florida and Nevada

– African Americans moved Ohio and Virginia

Advantages

• Better Ground Game

• The Need for Big Government

Problems

• The Absence of President Obama

• Is it a Democratic Coalition, or an Obama Coalition?

Disadvantages: the 2014 Election

• Democrats are facing the 6-year itch

• The President’s Party Loses Seats in the midterms– A referendum on the president– A referendum on the economy

How You Know it is going to bad

• Exposure and Coattails

• Presidential Approval

• Economic Growth

LOOKING AHEAD TO 2016

The Electoral College

The Role of History

• The Third Term is increasingly rare

• 11 Wins and 12 Losses since Washington

• 2 Wins and 6 Losses in the past 100 years

The Problem of an 8-year President

• Personal Popularity does not Carry-over to the new nominee (Unpopularity does)

• The Democratic Candidate’s Fate is Tied to Obama’s

• He/She will Held Responsible for His Policies

Presidents Tend To Decline

THE DEMOCRATS

Hillary Clinton

• The Presumptive front-runner

• Personally Popular

• Does she want it?

Joe Biden

• Has the advantage of being Vice-President

• His odds are based on the President’s final two years

The Democratic Field: Governors

Julian Castro

• Mayor of San Antonio

• No Statewide experience

• He has decide (soon) if his window is now

THE REPUBLICANS

The Republican Bench is longer, but not necessarily better

The Governors

The Republican Field: Congress

The Party of Second Chances“Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line”

Will He Get a Second Chance?