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Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd Fellow, Centre for Management Development, London Business School
TheFutureofAlmostEverythingGlobaltrendsandtheirimpactonKohlerGroup
$20,000Challenge
4wordphrasewillbethebasisofallleadership,innova:on,
marke:ng,mo:va:onandisTHEkeytostrongcorporateimage
Complexity and scale create
risks
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Panama
Strategies often overtaken by events World can change faster than you can hold a board meeting
Agility
Yet many trends changing more slowly
than people think
Cash growing - bank branches continue -
music, fashions, food, hotel rooms and
homes very similar
What is the future of the global
ECONOMY
WGP2005-2014(%,constantprices)
VietnamGDP1985-2011
$3.4trillion($50trillionby2020globally)
$2.4trillion
Reserves
One word will dominate ALL
FUTURE
The future is aboutEMOTION
85% of world population will be living in emerging
markets in 10 years
50% of global wealth is owned by 1%
1 billion will migrate over next 30 yearsAstonishing growth in middle class
Science,technologyengineering,maths
MostSTEMgraduatesinemergingmarkets
ChinaandIndiadominate
STEMdegreesincludingpost-graduate/PhDs
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1 billion over 60 year olds in 10 years
Europe Dying 4 couples to produce single great-grand child
1 million over 90 year olds in Italy in 12 years time
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!53
Older Customers
Huge New Markets
following coronary, stroke or sight loss using adult stem cells
Repair Heart / Brain / Eyes with stem cells
Rod photoreceptors (in green) within a "mini retina" derived from human induced Pluripotent Stem Cells in the lab. Courtesy of Johns Hopkins Medicine
Re:natransplantscanrestoresight
We can print layers of living cells....
Life expectancy will grow much
faster than forecast
Slow or no ageing is a Rockfish, Turtles, some Whales
No signs of getting
Rougheye rockfish (Sebastes aleutianus) 205 years Aldabra Giant Tortoise 255 years Lobsters are believed to live 100 or more years Ocean Quahog clam 405 years
Some animals do not age in normal way
Read your genes in 2 hours for
$2000
1trillionpagesamonth
People love Cities and Offices
Teleworking Only 2.5% of US workers are exclusively home-based
90% all global data
generated in last 2 years
BigDataandLiZleData
Big Data = Pattern
Little Data = Person
missing you
Night Flight or Day Flight Going out or coming home? work, food, drink,
chat, party, unwind, dark, quiet, sleep, leave
BestforBusiness?
Chicago Honolulu
Talking to each customer on journey of life
Globalised+BarriersIncreasingScale
VW mega platformVWMegaPla]orm-basisfor1mcars
World too small for more than:2 airline manufacturers
3 mobile operating systems10 large pharma
5 large auto companies
With rapid growth of niche manufacturing
10%wageinfla:oninChina
NearshoringBoom
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TurnretailstoreintoLeisure
Experience
Beingavailabletoeachcustomer
ontheirjourney
MOBILE More than 50% of online sales in some nations
Loca:onMarke:ng
reallymaZers
Over4000roadhauliersinEU
105
Goldstandard:
10amordersfor3pmDelivery
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Internet of Things
$12bn security and controlhome automation market by 2018
$40 Trillion Green Tech Boom driven by oil price, cost cuts, green activism
Shale gas 33% US supplies
3.3m US jobs $468bn pa + more oil
produced than Saudi by 2020
200 years global supply Up from 60 years in 5 years
Expect large energy and commodity
booms and busts over 30 years
75% global growth in green energy was in China in 2014
120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day 7,000 times total global power use Power Moscow from Libyan Desert
120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day 7,000 times total power useQUEBECfromARIZONAMOSCOWfromSAHARA
SolarCells$/waZ1990-2015
subsidies
PriceParity
InJune2013electricitypricesinGermanybecamenega:ve-EU150/MWhr
SameinQueenslandAustraliaforaweekin2014
SurplusPowertoGas:13EUplants/26planned
New Street Lamps save 3%
national energy
4 year payback for smart buildings
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1 billion need clean water 2.3 billion at risk of drought
4.5 billion at risk by 2050
4.6tonsperpersoneachdayinEU
13litrestogrowatomato146litrestolayanegg
2400litrestomakeahamburger4000litrestomakecoZonteeshirt11,000litresforapairofjeans
Image running tap Russia hot water story....
Next-generation water-saving devices
Consumers need to understand the reality
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IntelinChandlerCity 1.5m gallons a day into $19m desalination plant Pumped into sandstone acquifer Replaces 75% of water used by factory
Beyond Compliance
IntegrityisIntegralLongstanding traditions of high moral
conduct and ethical standards are basic to our conduct of business. Honesty and integrity are core values that we
must observe in all business activities.
do things you really believe in Life is Short
AllleadershipcomesfromVISIONofabeZerfuture
Thecorpora:onandeachassociatehavethemissionofcontribu:ngtoahigherlevelofgraciouslivingforthosewhoaretouchedby
ourproductsandservices.
Graciouslivingismarkedbyquali:esofcharm,goodtasteandgenerosityofspirit.Itisfurthercharacterizedbyself-fulfillmentand
theenhancementofnature.
LessonfromNon-ProfitsandAc:vists
Connectwithallthepassionspeoplehaveandtheywillfollowyoutothe
endsoftheearth,promotewhatyoudowithpride,andmayevenbewillingto
workforyoufornexttonothing
.andthefourwordphraseis.
BuildingaBeZerWorld
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Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd
globalchange.com15millionvisitors
5millionvideoviews
http://globalchange.com