+ All Categories
Home > Documents > The future of automotive sales in China | Accenture · the EV market to grow by more than 1,000%...

The future of automotive sales in China | Accenture · the EV market to grow by more than 1,000%...

Date post: 08-Aug-2021
Category:
Upload: others
View: 10 times
Download: 0 times
Share this document with a friend
36
The future of automotive sales in China
Transcript
Page 1: The future of automotive sales in China | Accenture · the EV market to grow by more than 1,000% since 2015. The market now accounts for 4.7% of the total Chinese automotive market.

The future of automotive sales in China

Page 2: The future of automotive sales in China | Accenture · the EV market to grow by more than 1,000% since 2015. The market now accounts for 4.7% of the total Chinese automotive market.

Summary 3

Our approach 4

1. China’s automotive market and where it is headed 61.1 The Chinese automotive market in numbers 71.2 The automotive (r)evolution: A market that never stands still 8

2. Pressing issues and emerging opportunities 122.1 The shifting demands of Chinese consumers 132.2 The changing role of automotive dealerships in China 16

3. The road ahead towards future automotive sales in China 223.1 The challenges and opportunities of shifting to direct sales 233.2Afinancialevaluationofthedirectsalesmodel 263.3 A transformation roadmap for the future of automotive sales 32

4. Conclusion 34

Contents

Page 3: The future of automotive sales in China | Accenture · the EV market to grow by more than 1,000% since 2015. The market now accounts for 4.7% of the total Chinese automotive market.

Summary

The Chinese automotive market has been essential for the business of OEMs for more than a decade—and will be even more indispensable in the post-COVID era. Butgiventhefiercecompetition,thestrongpositionofthestate,andcustomers’quicklychangingdemands,OEMs must develop a precise understanding of what theyneedtothriveinthisquickly-evolvingmarket.

Basedonacombinationofinsightsfromcustomers,dealersandtopmanagement,thisstudyshowsthatthetimeisripetoradicallyre-thinkthewaycarsarebeing sold in China. A seamless integration of online andofflinechannels,combinedwithmarket-wideservicestandardsandtransparent,haggle-freeprices,iskeyforwinningoverChina’sconsumers.Thiswill notbeaneasyjob:Withseeminglyever-growing sales volumes and opposition from powerful dealer associations,establishedOEMsarefacingbarrierstoramping-uptheirdigitalcapabilitiesandradicallytransforming their sales model.

DrawingfromindustryinsightsandourAccentureprojectexperience,weseektoprovideanswerstotoday’spressingchallengesandcreateacompellingvision for the future of automotive sales in China. That vision involves direct sales from OEMs to consumersinawaythatalsointegratesandbenefitsthe dealer network.

Despitethecomplexitiesandrisksassociatedwithtransformingthesalesmodel,waitingisnotan option if OEMs and dealers want to survive the ongoing disruption.

• With only a minor decline in total sales and strong growth in the premium segment, the Chinese automotive market has shown an astonishingly fast recovery after the initial outbreak of COVID-19. More than 25 million vehicles sold in 2020 make China by far the largest, fastest growing and most profitable market in the world

• For many Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs), China accounts for up to 50% of their global sales. But with 400+ players, competition is fierce, and China’s consumers are tech-savvy and demanding

• To stand out, OEMs and dealers must envision a radically new way of selling cars that satisfies consumer demand for transparency, convenience and seamless experience

• For established players, change will not come easily—strong dealer associations oppose radical transformation, and the widely diverse Chinese market requires a carefully calibrated approach

• The only way for OEMs to continue to thrive in China is to take a bold step and smartly invest in direct customer interaction, meaning they must turn from being a wholesaler to acting as a retailer

The future of automotive sales in China starts now.

3

Page 4: The future of automotive sales in China | Accenture · the EV market to grow by more than 1,000% since 2015. The market now accounts for 4.7% of the total Chinese automotive market.

ConsumersWeaccessedaconsumerpaneltoreach1,050Chinesenewcarowners.Thesampleprovidesarepresentativedistributionacrossage,gender,incomeandothermetricstoaccountforpotentialdifferencesinneedsandpreferences.

Dealers WeusedanexpertpanelontheChineseautomotiveindustrytosurveydealershipinvestorsandgeneralmanagersfromdealershipsinChina.Wesoughtaholisticviewwitharepresentativedistributionacrossbrands,locations and dealer size.

In this study, we combine three different perspectives in our analysis of the future of automotive sales in China: 1. A survey of 1,050 Chinese consumers who recently bought a new car2. A survey of 250 Chinese automotive dealers3. In-depth interviews with 12 Chinese and international industry executives,

as well as experts on the Chinese automotive market

Our approach

Age groups

40%

40%

20% 18-29

30-49

50+ Municipality

Province

36%Less than 20,000 km

26%20,000-30,000 km

31%30,000-50,000 km

7%More than 50,000 km

Annual driving distance

July 2020 // N = 1050 (Consumer); Source: Accenture Research

Gender

51%49%

Male

Female

Residence

Annual household income

5%Less than 15,000 USD

48%15,000-49,000 USD

35%50,000-89,000 USD

13%90,000 USD or more

Autonomousregion >1%

66%34%

Brand focus

21%

25%8%

46%Chinese brands only

Tier 3

Tier 4

Tier 1

Tier 2Foreign brands onlyDisruptors only

Mixed

17%Large: >100M USD

54%Medium: 50-100M USD

29%Small: <50M USD

Dealer size by revenue Dealer size by employees

July 2020 // N = 250 (Dealer); Source: Accenture Research

Outlet location

31%Large: >150

50%Medium: 50-150

19 %Small: <50

45%

38%7%7%

4

Page 5: The future of automotive sales in China | Accenture · the EV market to grow by more than 1,000% since 2015. The market now accounts for 4.7% of the total Chinese automotive market.

Executives and experts Toaugmentourview,wetalkedtotopexecutivesofestablishedOEMs,newmarketplayers,third-partyproviders,andtechnologygiants.

Bernd PichlerRegional Director Asia PacificBentley Motors

Xavier ChardonVice PresidentSAIC-Volkswagen Sales Company

Daniel LescowVice President, Sales, Marketing & After-Salessmart Automobile

Dr. Johann E. WielandPresident & CEOBMW Brilliance Automotive

Raymond LeeManaging Director Greater ChinaSime Darby Motor Group

Fu QiangCo-Founder & ChairmanAi-Ways Cars

Li HongpengChief Business OfficerHyundai Motor Group (China)

AnonymousVice PresidentLeading Chinese Tech Company

Sean GreenSenior Vice President, Sales & MarketingBMW Brilliance Automotive

Huang RuiVice President & Head of NSC ChinaByton

AnonymousCEOChinese Investor Group

Morris GaoCMO & Head of Business Development Faraday Future

5

Page 6: The future of automotive sales in China | Accenture · the EV market to grow by more than 1,000% since 2015. The market now accounts for 4.7% of the total Chinese automotive market.

1. China’s automotive market and where it is headed

6

Page 7: The future of automotive sales in China | Accenture · the EV market to grow by more than 1,000% since 2015. The market now accounts for 4.7% of the total Chinese automotive market.

Despitetherecentrecessionthatwasspedupby theoutbreakoftheCOVID-19pandemic,Chinaisthebiggestautomotivemarketintheworld.Withatotal of25.76millionpassengerandcommercialvehiclessoldin20191,theChineseautomotivemarkethaslongbecomeacornerstoneofglobalOEMs’growthstrategies and essential for long-term business success. WesternOEMsthathaveestablishedafootholdbyformingjointventureswithChineseplayersnowheavilyrelyontheChinesemarket’sperformance,whichissettogrowevenmore.Withapenetrationrateofonlyaround19%,carownershipinChina,forinstance,isstillmuchlowerthaninGermany(59%) ortheUnitedStates(84%)(seeFigure1).

Sincetheendof2019,theCOVID-19pandemichasposedseriouschallengesforOEMsaroundtheworld,withChinabeingthefirstmajormarkettoimposeastrictlockdown.AtthepeakofthecrisisinGreaterChinainFebruary2020,carsaleshaddeclinedbyastaggering79%year-over-year(YoY),down88%fromDecember2019.ThistrendcontinuedintoMarch(-43%YoY),beforeChinabecamethefirstautomotivemarkettoenterastrongrecoverybeginningin April.2Infact,AprilsalesnumbersmarkthefirstYoYautomotivesalesgrowthsincearollbackoftaxbreaksinJuly2018endeddecadesofuninterruptedgrowth.3 A30%increaseincommercialvehiclesales,drivenbystrongdemandfrompostalanddeliveryservicesdueto the soaring e-commerce business and government support,contributedtothehikeinautomotivesales.

ForglobalOEMs,China’sswiftrecoveryledtoanevengreaterdependenceonthemarket.AlreadyinQ2/2019, longbeforetheCOVID-19pandemic,Chinaaloneaccountedfornearlyone-thirdofglobalsalesforthefivelargestcarmakersintheworld.ByQ2/2020,duringtheCOVID-19pandemic,thatnumberclimbedto45.2%onaverage.Thismeansthatforthelargestcarmakers,Chinaaloneaccountedfornearlyhalfofallvehiclessold worldwide.

AttherootofChina’sfasteconomicturnaroundaresubstantialsubsidies,taxexemptions,andfurthermeasuresthatChina’sauthoritiesintroducedinApril2020toboostautomotivesalespost-COVID-19.Delayingthe implementation of stricter emissions standards until January2021,reducingthevalue-addedtax(VAT)forusedcardealerstojust0.5%,andgivingfinancialinstitutions incentives to develop more attractive consumercreditserviceswithlowdownpaymentsandinterestratesarejustthreeofseveralcentralmeasures.Inaddition,localgovernmentsofatleastadozencities and provinces started offering cash subsidies ofasmuchas$1,400permodeltonewcarbuyers.

LookingatChina’sgenerallyswiftrecoveryfromtheCOVID-19pandemic,itappearsthatnoOEMcanaffordnottosellinChina.Butwithwellover400OEMsandan average of two to three new models being launched everyday,itisanextremelycrowdedplayingfield.ThemostpressingquestionsthatOEMsanddealersfaceishowtostandoutandcontinuetosellsuccessfully in the future. One thing is clear: The time is ripe to radicallyre-thinkthewaycarsarebeingsoldinChina.

Source: Accenture Research, Statista (2020)4

1,809

1,958 2,271

2,285 2,457

2,658

1,927

310

1,431

2,0702,194

2,300

2,112

2,186

2,5652,573

2,7792,873

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Jul Aug Sept Oct2019 2020

Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Sale

s in

1.0

00

uni

ts -88%

+668%

1.1 The Chinese automotive market in numbers

China accounts for 1/2 of global sales for the five largest carmakers in Q2/2020(new vehicles only)

2-3 new vehiclesare being launched in China every day

Figure 1: Monthly automotive sales in China from July 2019 to December 2020

7

Page 8: The future of automotive sales in China | Accenture · the EV market to grow by more than 1,000% since 2015. The market now accounts for 4.7% of the total Chinese automotive market.

1.2 The automotive (r)evolution: A market that never stands still

IsChinatheEldoradoforautomotivesales?Notquite.Evenwithitsenormouspotential,theChineseautomotivemarketisextremelychallengingdueto itspolicies,competitivelandscapeandpowerfultechnologyplayers.

Inrecentyears,theChinesegovernmenthasheavilysupportedstateelectricvehicle(EV)brandsastheysoughttoformnationalchampionssuchasNIO,WeltmeisterandXpeng.MassiveinvestmentsallowedtheEVmarkettogrowbymorethan1,000%since2015.Themarketnowaccountsfor4.7%ofthetotalChineseautomotivemarket.Inthisway,Chinahasdevelopedintoahotbedforinnovationinnewenergyvehicles (NEVs) and grown to be the most important marketforthissub-segment,accountingformorethan half of the almost 2 million electric vehicles sold globallyin2019.

Withsixmodelsandmorethan250,000unitssoldannually,BYDisChina’slargestEVmanufacturer,followedbytheWesternOEMsTeslaandVolkswagen.Intotal,Chinahasmorethan500EVstartups.Many,however,havenotyetproducedmorethanaconceptcar.Bytheendof2019,only12EVstartupshadactuallybegunsellingvehiclesandjust10werepresentattheBeijingMotorShowinSeptember2020.Butstill,thesestartupshavemanagedtoshakeuptheindustry.

MorrisGao,ChiefMarketingOfficerandHeadofBusinessDevelopmentforFaradayFutureChina,explainsthatincontrasttomanyestablishedOEMs,startupshaveunderstoodearlyonthatsuperiorsoftwareandshortinnovationcyclesarekeysuccessfactors in the crowded Chinese automotive market.

Figure 2: Differentiation of different types of electric vehicles

1 in 2 electric vehiclessold globally are sold in China

New energy vehicles

Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV)Vehicle powered by a battery and

combustion engine

Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEV) Vehicle powered by a hydrogen

fuel cell

Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV)Vehicle exclusively powered

by a battery

60,253

49,714

29,51123,884 21,958 21,170 18,242 16,171 14,169

Chinese

11,43820,000

40,000

60,000

0

80,000

Vehi

cle

sale

s

NEV sales across China in H1/2020, by leading OEM

BYD TESLA VW SAIC GM GAC BAIC BMW NIO CHERY

International

Source: Accenture Research, Statista (2020)5

The future car will run on software. This requires a mind-shift from established OEMs. Currently, they do market research three years before product launch, and when the car is launched, they feel their job is done. But in China, customer preferences change every year. You need to keep working and continuously improve and refine the software to make sure that the car keeps on providing the best experience for customers year over year.

Morris GaoCMO & Head of Business Development Faraday Future

8

Page 9: The future of automotive sales in China | Accenture · the EV market to grow by more than 1,000% since 2015. The market now accounts for 4.7% of the total Chinese automotive market.

Figure 3: Market size of NEVs in China

Thosecompanieswithstrongandconfidentbackingbytheirinvestors,however,continuepursuingtheirambitiousplansforgrowth:WhilePolestaropened 20newstores,NIOcontinuouslyrampedupsalesoftheirES8andES6SUVsandcompleteda7-billion-yuan (1.1 billion USD) funding round from state-controlled investors.Alibaba-backedXpengalsocontinuestomakeheadlinesbylaunchingitsP7sportssedan,anEVwithadriving-rangeof706kilometers—thelongestcurrentlyavailableinChina.

GrowthintheChineseEVsegmentissettoaccelerate.By2025,weexpecttheoverallsalesvolumeforplug-inandfullyelectricvehiclestoreach6millionunitsperyear.Furthermore,fuelcellelectricvehicles(FCEVs)willbecomeincreasinglyrelevantby2025,withsalespotentiallyreaching50,000unitsorabout1%of totalforecastedNEVsalesperyear.Beyond2025,Chinaaspirestocreatetheworld’sleadingmarket forhydrogenfuelcellcars.Infact,planshavebeenannouncedtoput1millionFCEVsontheroadby2030,matchingthetargetsofCaliforniaandonlylaggingbehindSouthKorea’sambitionofgetting1.8million vehicles in circulation.6Astheworld’sleadingproducerofhydrogen,Chinahasabigadvantage intheracetofuelcellsupremacy.

Another differentiator for the Chinese market—besides itssize,policiesandcompetitivelandscape—isthestrongfootprintofdigitalbehemothslikeBaidu,Alibaba,and Tencent that seek to connect and integrate vehicles withtheirrespectiveecosystems.8Whilepushingthedevelopmentofautonomousdriving,BaiduisalsoprovidingtheoperatingsystemfortheconnectedvehiclesofseveralChineseOEMs.Meanwhile,Alibabahas introduced an in-car mini-app platform in cooperationwithXpeng,andTencentprovidesitsownin-vehicleinfotainmentsystemfocusedonvoice-operatedcommunication,socialmediaandshopping.

20% of cars sold in China in 2025 will be NEVs

2,000,000

4,000,000

0

3,000,000

1,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 ... 2025

PHEV1-2M

BEV4-5M

FCEV50,000

Source: Accenture Research, Statista (2020)7

The few online success stories that were promoted heavily in China and around the world mainly sold limited editions and at little volume. This is easy to accomplish. The true challenge will be to integrate these online events with the offline dealer world and to turn this into an overall sustainable sales channel that fulfils customers’ needs.

CEOChinese Investor Group

9

Page 10: The future of automotive sales in China | Accenture · the EV market to grow by more than 1,000% since 2015. The market now accounts for 4.7% of the total Chinese automotive market.

ButChina’stechgiantshaveevengreaterambitions.Majorthird-partyplatformssuchasAutoHome,BitAuto,DouYin(TikTok)orDongCheDi,aswellasAlibaba’sTmall,haveansweredcustomers’callsforconvenienceand digitization. These brands are seeking to establish themselves as the go-to-place for used and new car buyers.Asinternetbusinesses,theseplatformsparticularlythrivedduringtheCOVID-19imposedrestrictionsonphysicaltransactions.AndOEMshavetakennotice.ManyOEMshavestartedtolivestreamcar sales events on social platforms to connect with consumers,andmorethan50brandsparticipatedinTmall’sDouble11shoppingcampaignin2020,securingatotalof330,000orders.BMWisevenenteringinto a large-scale strategic partnership with Alibaba to accelerate its digital transformation.

Anotherexample:TeslahadtheChineseonlinecelebrityWeiYapresentthebrand’smodels,theirspecsandtheir prices in an hour-long video stream which attracted4millionviewers.Chery,ontheotherhand,launcheditsnewTiggo7/7PROmodelexclusivelyvialivestream,generatingmorethan7,000salesleads,accordingtoofficialdata.

AndTmall,oneofChina’sbiggeste-commerceplatforms,isincreasinglyusedforautomotiveproductsandservices.Recently,itteamedupwithAutoHometopromoteselectedcarmodelsduring its818(18thofAugust)shoppingfestival,andalsobecametheexclusivesaleschannelforGreatWall’sNEVbrandORA.

E-Commerce

XPENG

Alipay – Taobao.com – AutoNavi In-car service ecosystem for smart vehicles built on Alibaba’s “super apps”

• Initial focus on driver-centric functions (navigation, travel assistant or driver condition monitoring) with gradual expansion to other mobility, lifestyle and infotainment functions• Open to third-party developers to launch more value-added services

Alibaba

Communication & social media

CHANGANHONDABMW

TAI3.0Tencent Auto Intelligence, in-vehicle infotainment with voice activated shopping

• Onboard app for user preferences • Onboard app powered by AI and big data to optimize and contextualize content• Incorporation of WeChat functionality and access to exclusive content services, including QQ Music and Ximalaya radio

Tencent

Autonomous driving – Apollo

HAVAL H6GEELYCHERYEXEED

DUER OS Developer platform for connected vehicle solutions and intelligent transportation

• Core functions voice assistance, navigation or entertainment • 50 mini apps, incl. e-commerce, online video, travel, after-sales• Integrates data flow between riders, vehicles, road and cloud

Baidu

Main focus

Collaborations

In-Car Software Platform

Mini Apps

Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent are working to grow their footprint in China’s auto industry

Source: Accenture

Figure 4: Technology giants in the automotive industry

4 million viewerstuned in to see Chinese celebrity WeiYa promote Tesla’s models via livestream

Even though the smart brand is well established in China, as a new company we can act like a startup in many ways. When it comes to building a future-proof sales model, our opportunity is to accommodate for China’s very demanding customers, while at the same time providing a consistent brand experience. Plus, it needs to have the flexibility to withstand accelerated disruption in China.

Daniel LescowVice President Sales, Marketing & After-Salessmart Automobile Co., Ltd.

10

Page 11: The future of automotive sales in China | Accenture · the EV market to grow by more than 1,000% since 2015. The market now accounts for 4.7% of the total Chinese automotive market.

Whiletheseexamplesshowthatthird-partyplatformscan be valuable tools to increase sales and push digital salesjourneys,theyalsounderlineOEMs’dependencyon their large audiences and technological know-how. Notsurprisinglythen,relationsbetweenOEMsandthird-partyonlineplatformsarenotalwaysharmonious.InAugust2020,forexample,alegaldisputebetweenChinesee-commercegiantPinduoduoandTeslaescalated,becausetheformersoldTesla’sModel3sedanforalowerpricethanadvertisedinTesla’sownonlinestore.ThisjeopardizedtheOEM’sprice-matchguarantee.Inaddition,dealers’skepticismseemstobe growing. The CEO of a Chinese investor group said thatmanyoftheonlinesaleseventsorganizedbyOEMsande-commercegiantsmaynotbefinanciallysustainable.Already,moreandmoredealersareturningawayfromthelikesofAutoHome,Bitauto,orDongCheDi,whosefeeshavebecometoohighfor

dealers’slimmargins.Consideringthat42%ofdealersdidnotgenerateaprofitin2019,OEMsmayhavetolookformoreeffectivewaystoadvertiseonlinewhilesupporting their retail network. Subsidizing part of the feesonlineplatformschargetheirdealerscanonlybeafirststep.

Clearly,Chinaisauniquemarketforpilotingandperfecting the automotive sales strategies of the future. AsDanielLescow,VicePresidentSales,Marketing&After-SalesatSmartdescribes,OEMsneedtodevelopapreciseunderstandingofChinesecustomers’needs,aswellasdefineaclearstrategyforhowtonavigateandleverageChina’sdigitalecosystemtobuildafuture-proof sales model.

11

Page 12: The future of automotive sales in China | Accenture · the EV market to grow by more than 1,000% since 2015. The market now accounts for 4.7% of the total Chinese automotive market.

2. Pressing issues and emerging opportunities

12

Page 13: The future of automotive sales in China | Accenture · the EV market to grow by more than 1,000% since 2015. The market now accounts for 4.7% of the total Chinese automotive market.

Whilemorethan400mobilitybrandscompeteformarketshareinChina,morethan50%ofallnewcarssoldin2019wereproducedbythetopninebrands.Newcomers,inparticular,arestrugglingtoappealtoChineseconsumers.Infact,Chinesecustomers’brandloyaltyhasincreasedinrecentyears.Oursurveyshowed that brand image ranks as the number one reasonforchoosingamodel.Therefore,newcomersprimarilytargetfirst-timebuyerswithentry-levelmodelsatattractiveprices,orbyemphasizingtheirbrand’sperformance,aesthetics,connectivityorservicequality.

Some56%ofdriversagreethatonanemotionallevel,cars provide them with a sense of freedom. The COVID-19healthcrisisfurtheramplifiedthisneedforindependenttransportation,as80%ofrespondentshave become more cautious about their own and others’health.Withpeoplegrowingincreasinglyhesitanttousepublictransportation,especiallyinChina’smegacities,interestinbuyinganewcarhasshotup27%,whilesimultaneouslysufferingasmallerhit(down14%)fromcustomerswhodecidedagainst apurchaseduetoeconomicreasons.Newmobilityservices,suchascarsharing,faremuchbetterbecausetheyprovideuserswithlessexposuretoothertravelers.Some78%ofChinesecarownersreportthattheyalsousemobilityserviceslikeDidi(65%),DidaChuxing(31%)orCaocao(29%)atleastoccasionally,andalmostall(90%)wanttokeepusingtheminthefuture.

Regardingconsumers’preferredmodels,acceptanceandwillingnesstobuyanNEVcontinuestorise.Whilethegovernmentpushesthetargetofa25%NEVmarketshareby2025,68%ofsurveyedcarownersreporttheywouldliketobuyaNEVastheirnextvehicle.Consumerinterestisevenstrongerinthehigh-incomesegment,where81%ofcarownerswithahouseholdincome ofmorethan¥600,000(92,000USdollars)peryearareinterestedinbuyinganNEV.Eventheinterestofcarownersabove50years,whoaretypicallyamoretraditionalcustomersegment,ismorethantwiceashighasChina’stargetmarketshareforNEVs.

68% of consumerswould like to buy a NEV as their next vehicle

2.1 The shifting demands of Chinese consumers

When it comes to automotive sales, digital channels already play a very significant role for marketing and product communication. But up until now, transactions are still largely conducted offline. This is due to several reasons. First, a car’s price typically exceeds the 10k RMB threshold for online transactions. Second, there is no mature system to conduct financing or insurance transactions online. Third, there is no transparency in discounts and transaction prices, meaning that customers have to negotiate sales offline. And lastly, customers want to do a test drive offline before they buy the car.

Huang RuiVice President and Head of NSC China Byton

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on consumers in China

80% of consumershave become more worried about their health

85% of consumershave become more willing to shop online

July 2020 // N = 1050 (Consumer); Source: Accenture Research

While only 3% of consumers bought their last vehicle online, 14% want to buy their next one online

13% more consumersthan before intend to buy a new car in the wake of the COVID-19 crisis

-14% sales decline due to financial downturn +27% car sales driven by health concerns

13

Page 14: The future of automotive sales in China | Accenture · the EV market to grow by more than 1,000% since 2015. The market now accounts for 4.7% of the total Chinese automotive market.

Onaverage,consumersstarttheirbuyingjourneythree months before signing the paperwork—and morethan70%ofconsumersprefertodosoonline.Thisiswheretheycaneasilycomparepricesandproductspecifications,whileresearchingreviewsanduserinformation.DespiteChineseconsumers’generaltech-savviness,mostconsumers(77%)wanttoswitchtophysicalchannelstoclosethedeal,underlining thatdigitalalternativeswillmostlikelynotreplacethe“touchandfeel”experienceofdealerships.HuangRui,Byton’sVicePresidentandHeadofitsnationalsalescompanyinChina,explainswhy.Notonlydomanycustomerswishtodoatestdrivepriortopurchase,butthereisalsotheneedtonegotiatethefinalpriceandonlinepaymentishinderedbytechnicaland legal restrictions.

However,dealershavetoaccountforthefactthatconsumers entering their store are better connected andinformedthanever—afactthatFuQiang,co-FounderandChairmanofAi-WaysCars,stresses.AccordingtoFu,“Thegreatestproblemwithtraditionalautomotivesalesisthelackoftransparencyforthecustomer. In the value chain from OEM to dealer to customer,thecustomercomeslastandistheleastinformed.Thankfully,theinternetisputtinganendtothis.Customerscaneasilycomparepricesonline.”Moreover,theyexpectbusinessprocessestobeintegratedandefficient,forinstancewhenin-storeconversationsneedtocontinuedigitallyorwhenapurchasedvehicleistrackedthroughitsassembly anddeliveryacrosschannels.

It is imperative for OEMs and dealers to establish and manageaseamlesslyintegratedonlineandoffline salesjourneywithouttoday’schannelbreakdownsandclumsyworkarounds.Accordingly,XavierChardon,VicePresidentofSAIC-VW,callsforbalancebetweendigitaltouchpointsandthephysicalbusiness.AndBerndPichler,RegionalDirectorofBentleyinAsiaPacific,emphasizestheneedforbrandstodifferentiatethemselveswithexperiencesthatfocusonempathyand building trust. Chinese consumers are used to convenientandfast-pacedshoppingexperiencefromthevariouse-commerceplatformstheyuseevery day—andtheyexpectanequalifnotgreaterexperiencewhenbuyingsomethingasvaluableasanewcar.

2 in 3 consumerscollect competing offer from dealers of the same brand to get the best price

Onl

ine

Off

line

Configurecar

71%60%

12%

33% 38%

14%21%

22%32%

85%

59%51%

78% 77%

Test drive &experience

Compareproducts

Gatherinformation

Receiveoffer

Financinginformation

Closedeal

July 2020 // N = 1050 (Consumer); Source: Accenture Research; difference to 100% = “indifferent”

Figure 5: Consumer channel preference for customer journey steps

Price transparency is an issue. What is the reason that a customer visits two or three dealers before buying the car? It is because the customer does not trust the price at the first dealer is transparent enough.

Li HongpengChief Business Officer Hyundai Motor Group (China)

77% of consumersstill want to buy in a physical store

14

Page 15: The future of automotive sales in China | Accenture · the EV market to grow by more than 1,000% since 2015. The market now accounts for 4.7% of the total Chinese automotive market.

The behaviors and preferences of Chinese car owners are fueling the development of new sales models. Chineseconsumersvisitanaverageof2.5dealersbeforebuyingacar,with95%ofprospectivebuyersvisitingdealersofthesamebrand.Whilesomemaydosotocomparemodelsorservice,twointhreepeoplesurveyedsaidtheydosowiththemainintentionofcomparing prices and pitting dealers against each otherinnegotiation.LiHongpengofHyundaiMotorGroup(China)saidhethinkscustomersdo“nottrustthepriceatthefirstdealeristransparentenough.”Clearly,thisisputtingsignificantadditionalpressureon dealer margins while hurting the overall brand which almost no customer wants.

Infact,pricenegotiationsareregardedasanuisanceand have been shown to be the number one reason forcustomerdissatisfaction.Inoursurvey,fouroutoffiveChinesecustomerspreferredfixedtransactionprices over negotiations because it would help them feelmoreconfidentaboutthepurchasedecisionandhavegreatertrustinthesalesperson.Asaresult,bothdealersandOEMsarelookingforwaystoincreasepricetransparencyandstability.

Tosumup,whileChinesecustomersvaluestrongautomotivebrandsandareeagertoexplorethelatestinnovations,theyarealsochallengingOEMsanddealerstoinnovatethebuyingprocess,process,forinstance,bydemandingintegratedexperienceswhich

blurthelinebetweenonlineandofflinebuying.Seekingtocombinethebestofbothworlds,87%ofChinesecustomersarewillingtotryVRtechnology toaugmentthephysicalpurchasingexperience,and77%expressinterestinhavingtheirpurchasedvehicledeliveredcontactlesstotheirhome.However,while85%ofcustomershavebecomemorewillingtoshoponlineinthewakeofCOVID-19,theymaintainedtheirpreferenceforofflinetouchpointstowardstheendoftheautomotivesalesjourney.AsSAIC-VW’sXavierChardonexplains:“OurcustomerclinicsfortheID.4revealedthatcustomersareveryopenforanagentsalesmodel.”Thequestionis,areOEMsanddealersreadytoenteraneweraofsales?

Figure 6: Consumer pricing preferencesConsumer channel preference for customer journey steps

81%19%

64%

62%

42%

51%

43%

42%

July 2020 // N = 1050 (Consumer); Source: Accenture Research

Prefer price negotiations Prefer fixed & transparent prices

Ability to negotiate a better, lower price

Ability to compare negotiated prices across dealerships

Negotiations are a mandatory part of making a deal

Greater level of confidence in the closing of a deal

Ability to decide without being influenced by salesmen

Greater trust that salesmen provide the best information without trying to hard-sell

What differentiates an average sales experience from a superior one is the optimal mix and effective switching between process and empathy. Of course, we must employ the right technology along the sales journey and eliminate breaks between digital and physical channels. But our customers are looking for a person that they can build a relation with, who pays attention to detail, understands their needs and provides advice that can be trusted.

Bernd PichlerRegional Director Asia Pacific Bentley Motors

81% of customerssay that they would prefer fixed and transparent prices without the need for negotiations

15

Page 16: The future of automotive sales in China | Accenture · the EV market to grow by more than 1,000% since 2015. The market now accounts for 4.7% of the total Chinese automotive market.

Independent dealerships are the backbone of Chinese automotive retail. Dealers maintain a wide sphere of influence,includinginfluenceinpricing,retailmarketingandcustomerrelationshipmanagement.Sofar,theygenerate almost all new-car sales revenues for OEMs. Their economic relevance has given dealers an upper hand in disputes with OEMs who tried to implement changes to the current automotive sales model. A primeexampleisgivenbyAudi’sdisputewithFAWdealersin2017.WhenAudimadeplansforajointventurewithSAICpublicin2017,existingFAWdealersstartedaboycottthatledtoadeclineinAudi’sChinasalesbyalmost25%inthefirstquarterofthatyear.AudicouldonlysettlebygivingFAWdealersdeepconcessions on contracts and compensation of around4billioneuros.Sincethen,OEMshavebeencautious not to risk fallout with their dealers.

Still,Chinesedealersarefarfromfundamentallyrejectinginnovationsinautomotivesales.Infact,manydealershaverealizedthatcustomers’purchasepreferences are shifting online. Almost all of them (99%)usedigitaltoolstosupportmarketingandsales.Eighty-onepercentofdealersofferdigitaltestdrivesandappointmentbooking,78%allowfordigital

2.2 The changing role of automotive dealerships in China

1 in 3 dealersadmit new car sales are not profitable for them

OEMs have been moving online since 2018. Recently, the trend was amplified by COVID-19, during which we saw a boom of live broadcasting. Yet, this is just a way of showing the products, offline experience still remains a must element in the car purchase journey.

Vice President Leading Chinese Tech Co.

16

Page 17: The future of automotive sales in China | Accenture · the EV market to grow by more than 1,000% since 2015. The market now accounts for 4.7% of the total Chinese automotive market.

purchasingandpayment,andmorethan70%offerdirectdigitalinteraction.TheVicePresidentofaleadingChinesetechnologycompanysaidthatCOVID-19speduptheongoingtrendofmovingonline,withespeciallylarge dealerships (and their OEMs) diving into video chats(42%,e.g.viaDouYin)andlivestreamingofsalesevents(44%).However,Chinesedealerswillnotstopthere.Fifty-sixpercentsaiddigitizationandonlinepresencearethetoppriorityforinvestmentsinthenextthreetofiveyears.However,thereissignificantcostinvolved,andnotalldealerscandevelopthenecessarydigitalcapabilitiesontheirown.Therefore,38%ofdealersrelyonthird-partyplatforms—despitetheir general skepticism of platforms—because these third-partyofferingsareofhigherquality(44%)orarecheapertouse(43%)thanthetoolsprovidedbytheOEM.Goingforward,dealersareurgingtheirOEMs to up their game and provide better online options (40%)aswellasimprovetheoverallmulti-channelexperience(35%).However,withthehigherdemandforbetterdigitalsolutionssupportedbyOEMs,itis also imperative for dealers to be open to new solutions andseekclosecollaborationwithOEMs,e.g.interms of data sharing.

Dealers’requestsforOEMstostepinisnotnewbuthasintensifiedoverthecourseoftheCOVID-19crisis.Likemanyotherbusinessesacrossindustries,Chineseautomotive dealers have suffered from the fallout of thepandemic.Oursurveyfoundthattheaveragetimeittookdealerstosellastockvehicleincreasedby56%,from52to81daysduringthecrisis.Notsurprisingly,Chinesedealersexpecttheirturnovertodeclinebymorethan30%in2020,comparedtothepreviousyear.Andmarginsfromnewcarsaleshavebeenlowalready:Some42%ofdealersdidnotgenerateaprofitin2019.Oursurveyshowedthatathird(25-36%)ofdealerssaythatnewcarsalesarenotprofitableforthem. One reason for eroding margins is intra-brand competition,which29%ofdealersnameasoneofthebiggest threats to their business. This comes as no surpriseasdealersmentionthat69%oftheircustomersactivelyconfrontthemwithcompetingoffersfromdealers of the same brand.

Figure 7: The biggest threats as perceived by Chinese dealers

60%

57%

44%

44%

30%

29%

11%

July 2020 // N = 250 (Dealer); Source: Accenture Research

Competitors’ quality & pricing

Third-party platforms

Stricter environmental regulations

Long OEM production times

Alternative mobility services

Intra-brand competition

Economic downturn

What dealers perceive as the biggest threats to their business (multi select)

17

Page 18: The future of automotive sales in China | Accenture · the EV market to grow by more than 1,000% since 2015. The market now accounts for 4.7% of the total Chinese automotive market.

Moreover,third-partyplatformsaredisruptingtheclassicdealersalesjourney,propelledbytheincreasing fragmentation of customer touchpoints andconfluenceofdigitalandphysicalchannels.CustomersvisitAutoHomeorSouche.comtoresearchcarinformationandcustomeropinions,offeringanattractive advertisement platform for OEMs and dealers. The likes of JD and Tmall aim to position themselves as the initiators of a vehicle purchase byofferingaconveniententrypointofsalestoconsumers shopping for other products on their platform.Whiledesirableforconsumers,theincreasing loss of control over the customer interface puts pressure on dealers and OEMs alike. As platforms take advantage of the business potential and raise fees,57%ofdealersconsiderthemamajorthreat to their business.

ButmajorOEMsareconfidentthatevenintheface ofgrowingonlinesales,dealershaveastrongfutureaheadofthem.AsSeanGreen,SeniorVicePresidentSales&MarketingatBMW-Brilliance,pointsout,customersneedaphysicalplacefortestdrives,

serviceandrepairs.Andforthisreason,havingastrong network of successful dealers is a huge asset for established OEMs.

WiththeChineseeconomyrecoveringfromthepandemic,only11%considerafurthereconomicdownturn a substantial business risk. The fact that 44%ofdealersviewlongOEMproductiontimesasathreattotheirbusinessunderlinesexistingconsumerdemand.However,dealersneedtodevelopamindsetthatembraceschangeatthecustomerinterface, alsointhephysicalchannel,towinandretaincustomers in the future.

10%

< 25% decline 24%

25-40% decline 32%

40-55% decline 25%

> 55% decline 9%

No significant decline

74%

OEM loan 47%

Government bridge loan 35%

Direct business investment 33%

None of the above 7%

Payment deferred by OEM

Expected sales decline from COVID

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on dealers in China

Support measures received by dealers

July 2020 // N = 250 (Dealer); Source: Accenture Research

61%

OEM consolidation 58%

Price wars 53%

Higher pressure on dealers by OEMs 53%

Increasing online sales 52%

Tighter OEM-dealer collaboration

How will the industry change after COVID?

Average number of days to sell a stock vehicle

31%expected sales decline for 2020

52

81

65

Pre-COVID During COVID Post-COVID(expected)

Despite the trend towards online and direct sales, we see a strong future for our dealers. Customers will always need a physical place for test drives, service and repairs. Having a network of 600+ dealers in China is a huge asset for BMW.

Sean GreenSenior Vice President, Sales & MarketingBMW Brilliance Automotive Ltd

81% of dealersagree their business models need to change to be successful in the future

18

Page 19: The future of automotive sales in China | Accenture · the EV market to grow by more than 1,000% since 2015. The market now accounts for 4.7% of the total Chinese automotive market.

Chinesedealersknowthatinordertostayrelevant,theyneedtochangethewaytheyoperate.Inoursurvey,81%ofdealersstatedthattheybelievetheirbusiness model needs to change for them to continue tobesuccessful.Dealersknowmanyoftheircustomersare growing tired of the traditional sales process. However,comparingwhatdealerssayisthereasonfordissatisfactionandwhatcustomerssayisthereasonthat Chinese dealers still underestimate customer discontent,especiallyinofflinesteps.

Whiletheneedtonegotiatepricesisthenumberonedriverofcustomerdissatisfaction,dealersregarditasfarlessrelevant.Still,mostChinesedealers(63%)arenotopposedtotheideaoffixedandtransparentprices,adding to the chance that this customer demand willsoonbesatisfied.Ingeneral,alargenumberofChinesedealersareopentonewbusinessmodels,suchasautomotivesubscriptionsandsharing,and

theywelcomeinnovationsinsalesmodels.Arguably,themostimportantsalesinnovationiscurrentlytheintroductionofthedirectsalesmodel,which87%ofdealers have seen their OEMs pilot or rollout.

Thevastmajority(83%)ofdealersandparticularlylargeinvestorsareexpectingpositiveeffectsontheirbusinessfromsellingcarsforafixedcommission.Only11%areactivelyopposedtotheidea.Moreconcretely,Chinesedealersexpecttohavemore timetofocusoncustomers(43%)toreceivebettertargetedandpre-qualifiedleads(40%),andtoincurlowerexpensesandfinancialrisk(39%)inadirectsalesmodel.Inaddition,72%ofdealersreporttheywould welcome the OEM to take over larger parts of salesadministration,suchasstockmanagement,invoicing or credit checks.

63% of dealersdo not think fixed prices make selling cars more difficult

July 2020 // N = 1050 (Consumer), N = 250 (Dealer); Source: Accenture Research

Configuration options

Price negotiation

Financing options

Online purchase option

Online information

Sales consultant

Test drive

Final price

Delivery time

17%

12%

17%

12%10%

11%11%

7%14%

5%14%

8%12%

10%13%

10%11%

29%

Dealers Consumers

Figure 8: Drivers of dissatisfaction

83% of dealersexpect positive effects from selling cars for a fixed commission

19

Page 20: The future of automotive sales in China | Accenture · the EV market to grow by more than 1,000% since 2015. The market now accounts for 4.7% of the total Chinese automotive market.

There are also concerns that dealers bring up when asked about the direct sales model. These include potentiallylowersalesvolumesandreducedmotivationoftheirsalesconsultants.Dealerslargestconcern,however,isageneralskepticismifOEMstrulyhavethetechnological and operational know-how that is needed toorchestratesalesinamarketasdiverseChina’s,wherecustomerexpectationsandsalesjourneysdiffergreatlybetweenmegacitiesandruralareas.

Overall,weseethatChinesedealershaverecognizedtheneedfordigitalizationandareawareofcustomers’mostpressingpainpoints.Inaddition,theyareopentonewbusinessmodelsandseemanyadvantagesintheintroductionofdirectsalesmodels.Nevertheless,concernsthattheOEMcouldtakeawaythedealers’corebusinessremain,asSAIC-VW’sVicePresidentXavierChardonnotes.IfOEMswantdealerstoacceptthenewsalesmodels,theymustmaketheopportunitiesand challenges transparent in their communication with dealers.

43%

40%

39%

38%

28%

33%

35%

July 2020 // N = 250 (Dealer); Source: Accenture Research

More time to focus on customers’ needs

Better/more targeted marketing

Lower financial risk (cars owned by OEM)

No more intra-brand competition

Better customer service (multi-channel)

OEM coverage of IT & transformation costs

Greater national stock

Figure 9: Direct sales benefits as perceived by Chinese dealers

In general, bigger investors and dealers are looking at a new business model positively— right now they do not make money. But they are still a bit afraid that VW would take away the core business—that is absolutely not our intention, because we believe physical interaction is very important in the sales process.

Xavier ChardonVice PresidentSAIC-Volkswagen Sales Company

20

Page 21: The future of automotive sales in China | Accenture · the EV market to grow by more than 1,000% since 2015. The market now accounts for 4.7% of the total Chinese automotive market.

In reaction to new competition from EV-startups and digital players, OEMs are piloting new sales and business models. Up to 80% of dealers report that subscription, direct sales and sharing models are being piloted or already in roll-out. Notably, larger dealers are typically exposed to more initiatives (90%) than smaller ones (67%).

Dealers‘ exposure to new business models

July 2020 // N = 250 (Dealer); Source: Accenture Research

Familiarity of dealers with new sales models

Piloted or rolled out Possibly in the future Not known

80% 17%Subscription

79% 18%Direct sales

77% 21%Car sharing

21

Page 22: The future of automotive sales in China | Accenture · the EV market to grow by more than 1,000% since 2015. The market now accounts for 4.7% of the total Chinese automotive market.

3. The road ahead towards future automotive sales in China

22

Page 23: The future of automotive sales in China | Accenture · the EV market to grow by more than 1,000% since 2015. The market now accounts for 4.7% of the total Chinese automotive market.

3.1 The challenges and opportunities of shifting to direct sales

EnhancedbytheCOVID-19pandemic,OEMsandtheirdealershaveacceleratedtheirsearchformoreefficient waystosellcarsinChina.Infact,almostallOEMsandinvestorsthatweinterviewedacknowledgedthatit’stime to reinvent the automotive sales model. But is the marketreallyripeforaradicallynewwayofsellingcars?

ComparedtoWesternmarkets,Chinaisexperiencingextraordinarysalesgrowth.Andevenwithgrowth innewcarsalesstartingtoslow,dealershavejustbeguntotapintotheseeminglyendlessopportunitiesprovidedbytheusedcarandfinancingbusiness. HighprofitsandpowerfuloppositionfromdealerassociationsmakeitnearlyimpossibleforOEMstotakeaction.Yet,OEMsanddealersmustoverhaul theirsalesmodelnowiftheywanttostayrelevant.

Arguably,themostpromisingwayliesinmixingtraditionalelementsofsaleswithinnovativeones.GlobalbrandslikeBMWandMercedes-Benz,forexample,have started offering their customers an online digital showroomexperienceintegratedinaWeChatminiprogram.Theyalsoenablereal-timeinteractionthroughone-to-onevideocallswithproductexperts.Whilethepotentialcarbuyerexploresaproductin thevirtualshowroom,salespersonnelsharerelevantpictures and specs of the models.

Tesla has also started offering “contactless test drive”optionstocustomersinBeijingandShanghai.Customerscanmakeappointmentsbyphoneorsigne-agreements online. The sales assistant then unlocks thecarremotelytoavoidanydirectphysicalinteractionthroughout the process. Instructions and vehicle information are provided via in-car video content on Tesla’slargecenterscreen.

TotrulywintheraceforChina’sconsumers,however,OEMsmusttakeaboldstepandinvestsmartlyindirectengagementwiththeircustomers.Today,OEMsarebasicallyseparatedfromtheircustomersthroughthe indirect wholesale model. To establish a close relationshipandcreatethesalesexperiencethatChineseconsumersdemand,OEMsneedtore-gaincontrol over the customer interface and start selling tocustomersdirectly.

Thekeythusliesintheshiftfromindirectsalestodirectsales(alsocalledagencymodel),meaningthatOEMs must turn from wholesale to retail. This transition requiresputtingthecustomeratthecenterofalloperations,whichpresentsamajorparadigmshiftforOEMs.Itrequiresnotonlytechnologicalinnovationbutalsochangestoorganization,processesandessentiallyashiftinmindset.Forinstance,manyOEMsstillrelyoncustomerdataspreadacrossdifferentsystemsmanagedbydifferentdepartmentsoreventhedealer.Leaders,likeHyundai’sLiHongpeng,haveunderstoodthatcustomerdatamustbeunifiedandusedbytheOEMtosteertheentirenetwork.

Dealers,ontheotherhand,mustembracetheirrole asinvestorsandacceptthattomaximizereturnstheymust give up some of their business ownership and independence.Manydealersthatwesurveyedsupporttheideaofre-inventingtheautomotivesalesmodel,aslongastheyremainacentralpillar.Forexample,RaymondLee,ManagingDirectorGreaterChinaofSimeDarbyMotorGroup,iscertainthat“thecurrentautomotive sales model is coming to an end.” And the speedofinnovationaroundNEVs,togetherwiththerecentCOVID-19pandemic,havefurtherfueledcalls from dealers for OEMs to introduce reliable sales commissionsandreducethefinancialrisksassociatedwithstockownership,residualvaluesandpricing.

Dealers know that the business model will change, but they do not know how because they are afraid of losing their business, their property. They should rather think like investors, letting a central organization manage showrooms in a unified way. In that, direct sales has advantages, because the OEM can take the role of that central organization, taking control of staff, processes, prices and information.

Li HongpengChief Business Officer Hyundai Motor Group (China)

23

Page 24: The future of automotive sales in China | Accenture · the EV market to grow by more than 1,000% since 2015. The market now accounts for 4.7% of the total Chinese automotive market.

InChina,wehaveobservedthatthreearchetypesofdirectsalesmodelsareemerging,andeachhasadifferentlevelofdealerinvolvement:DigitalExclusives,4S-Transformations,and4S-Complements*.Whilereal-lifeexamplesmaycombineaspectsoftwoorallthreearchetypes,theirdifferentiationprovidesvaluable strategic orientation for OEMs.

Digital ExclusivedescribesOEMs’strategyto makeoneorafewselectedmodelsexclusivelyavailable through a dedicated app or platform. Existingindependent4Sdealershipsaretypicallypaid acommissiontodisplaythesemodelsandprovidecustomer consultation. That means customers can experiencethemodelsinstoresandtakethemfor testdrives.Forthepurchase,however,thedealerwillonlyreferthecustomertotheOEM’sexclusivedigitalchannel.Dependingontheback-endprocesses,thismodel can provide a strong uplift to OEM margins andcreateproductionandlogisticsefficiencies.

SAIC’sRoeweMarvelXisagoodexampleforthisarchetype.Despitethemodel’sstrugglesinadynamicpoliticalenvironmentaroundNEVs,SAIC’sapproach ofshowingthecaratexistingdealershipsandselling itexclusivelyviaanappprovedsuccessful.Ithasenabled SAIC to reduce lead times to start production and push manufacturing updates to the customer directly.Similarly,ChinesecarmakerGeelypartneredwith Alibaba-owned Souche.com to sell its model “LightKnight”ata5%discounted,non-negotiabletransaction price. The special edition model is not availablethroughGeely’s4Sdealernetwork.

4S-Transformation describes a more holistic but alsomorecomplexarchetypeofdirectsalesmodels.Here,theOEM’sexisting4Sdealershipsaretransformedintoagents,whoactonbehalfoftheOEM.Thisimplies atransitionfromtoday’smarginandbonussystemtoone where dealers (or agents) work for a set commission. Inreturn,theOEMassumesmuchoftheriskthattodaylieswiththedealers,suchasownershipofstockand demo cars.

Sofar,Chinahasnotseenanymajor4S-Transformationsyet,butEuropeanOEMshavecompellingexamples.BMW,forinstance,pilotedanagencymodelwithitsBMWisub-brandin19marketsfrom2012-2016.9 DaimlerlaunchedanagencyforitsfullrangeofmodelsandcustomergroupsinSouthAfricaandSweden,andisnowplanningtoextendtheagencymodeltofurtherEuropeanmarkets.Similarly,VolkswagenhasalsolauncheditsfamilyofIDmodelsinanagencymodelinGermany,withfurthermarketsandVW groupbrandslikelytofollow.10

InChina,severalasyetundisclosedOEMsaresaidtobecurrentlyexploringoptionsfortransformingtheirnetwork of independent 4S dealerships into a network of sales agents.

4S-ComplementdescribesanarchetypewhereOEMs launch new direct sales retail formats in additiontoexisting4Sdealerships.Specifically, OEMs have started launching high-street shops that augmenttheexisting,large-scalepremisesintheoutskirts of cities. The idea is to move sales to the consumer,whichinChinaisoftentimesinshoppingmalls. The new showrooms aim to attract customers byfocusingsolelyonthedisplay,experienceandsaleof a selected range of new premium models. After a purchase,customerscanrelyontheexisting4Sdealershipforaftersalesandservices,whichXavierChardon emphasizes will still be needed: “Unlike Tesla andNIO,wecannotonlyrelyoncityshowrooms.Wehave a much broader product portfolio and a bigger stockofcars.Therefore,westillneedbigshowroomsand repair capacities to present our whole range and to service our customers.” These 4S dealers are the onesthattypicallyinvestinthenewdowntownretaillocations and run operations for a commission. The cars,however,areownedbytheOEMwhosetsstandardsandpricestoensureconsistency.

The current automotive sales model is coming to an end. While I believe that the full transformation will still take at least 10 years, we assume that younger customers will develop a fundamentally different view on car purchases. They are looking for ways to buy online, meaning that in the longer-term test drives may be the only physical experience that is left. That is why we have embarked on various online digital initiatives such as digital showrooms and live streaming on WeChat and Tik Tok. We are even nurturing our sales consultants to be KOLs so that they can promote and sell cars on-line.

Raymond LeeManaging Director Greater ChinaSime Darby Motor Group

* The term “4S” refers to dealerships that offer sales, service, spare parts and surveys (i.e. customer feedback).

24

Page 25: The future of automotive sales in China | Accenture · the EV market to grow by more than 1,000% since 2015. The market now accounts for 4.7% of the total Chinese automotive market.

Weexpect4S-ComplementstobeespeciallysuccessfulinChinesemegacities,whereretailrentsare often too high to operate traditional dealerships. Already,severalpilotscanbefoundinChina.InDecember2020,Volkswagenlauncheditsfirstdirectsalescitystore,the“ID.StoreX,”incooperationwithSAIC.11Plansaretoopenatotalof40ID.StoreXstoresin29Chinesecitiesoverthenextonetotwoyears.BesidesVolkswagen,severalotheryetundisclosedWesternpremiumandvolumeOEMsarepursuingplans to open 4S-Complements. Successful NEV startups,aswell,arerelyingonaverysimilarcombinationofself-ownedflagshipstoresandpartnerships with investors who provide aftersales andservice,accordingtoFuQuiang,Co-Founder andChairmanofAi-WaysCars.

However,whether4S-Complementswillprovetobesuccessfulremainstobeseen.Hyundai’sLiHongpeng,forexample,warnsthatcityshowroomsshouldratherbe viewed as a marketing or branding element than a viablesalesformat,because“eventually,cars—whicharenotaveryprofitableproduct—shouldnotbesoldin places with the highest rent.”

WhileDigitalExclusivestendtoworkbestwithalimitednumberofmodelsoraspilots,sellinglargervolumesdirectlytothecustomerrequiresadeeperintegrationofthephysicalretailnetwork.Whetherto

transform the retail network or to complement it dependsontheindividualOEM’snetworkstructure,history,andcompetitivelandscape.

Inthefollowingchapters,webreakdownthebusinesscase and show how OEMs can lead a successful transformation from indirect to direct sales. It is a highlycomplexandambitiouspathtocommitto,butwebelieveitistheonlyroadthatcanleadtoasuccessful future for automotive sales.

4S-Complement

SAIC Marvel X in China

+ Lower complexity (no dealer involvement)+ Production efficiencies through link between app and factory+ Direct customer access

– Cannibalization of indirect retail sales– Limited scalability for full portfolio– Limited dealer participation in OEM online sales

Mercedes-Benz in Sweden

+ Fixed prices and intra-brand efficiencies across all channels+ Cost synergies from centralization+ Steering of 3rd-party platforms and network stability (in economic crisis)

– High complexity (full transformation)– Significant IT investments and additional run costs (headcounts, IT)– OEM balance sheet extension

SAIC-VW in China

+ Direct sales focused retail formats, e.g., in city centers+ Independent dealers as investors in new formats+ Lab for innovative sales approaches

– High complexity (greenfield approach)– Major investment in new retail formats– Integration of existing 4S dealerships used for aftersales and service

Digital Exclusive

Source: Accenture

4S-TransformationArchetype

Example

Setup

Pros

Cons

Figure 10: Comparison of direct sales model archetypes

Similar to established OEMs, we are selling our cars via a network of partners alongside stores owned and operated directly by ourselves. But other than established OEMs, we do not set volume targets or exert stock pressure, and we own the customer contact. Our partners act as Maintenance point or as experience centers who combine traffic with community and delivery.

Fu QiangCo-Founder and ChairmanAi-Ways Cars

25

Page 26: The future of automotive sales in China | Accenture · the EV market to grow by more than 1,000% since 2015. The market now accounts for 4.7% of the total Chinese automotive market.

3.2 A financial evaluation of the direct sales model

Todeterminethefinancialbenefitsofadirectsalesstrategy,welookattwoperspectives:thatofthedealerandtheOEM.Fromthedealer’sperspective,wewouldadviseOEMstokeepdealers’interestsinmindandensurethatdealernetprofitremainsunchangedwhentransitioning from indirect to direct sales. This means thatwhilethedealer’sturnoverandcostswillchange,the bottom line should remain unaffected—a central demand from dealers to protect the investments theyhavemadeintheirbusinesses,SimeDarby’sRaymondLeesaid.

Inthetraditionalindirectsalesmodel,adealer’sgrossturnover from car sales is based on the margin and bonusnegotiatedwiththeOEM.Inaddition,dealersmayreceiveothercommissionssuchasfinancingkickbacks.Tomakesales,dealersoftengrantlargerebatesofupto25%(10-14%onaverage),eliminatingmostoftheirmargin.Furtherreductionsinpricemaycomefrommarketingandoperatingcosts,personnelexpenses,costsofstockownership(e.g.handling,financing,storage,insurance)andotheroverhead (e.g.property,administration,depreciation).

Inadirectsalesmodel,adealer’sgrossturnoverisdeterminedbyfixedremunerationandcertainbonuselements,which,insum,istypicallymuchlowerthantoday’smarginandbonus.Thedealer,however,incurs

muchlowercosts.Mostimportantly,rebatesaregrantedandcoveredbytheOEM.Additionally,theOEM takes over important functions such as owning andfinancingthestock,managingorders,invoicingandaccounting.Thisreducesthedealer’scostsbyupto2.5%.Ultimately,theremunerationneedstobesetatalevelatwhichthedealer’snetprofitremainsstable—usuallybetween5and8%intotal,basedonourprojectexperience.

The relationship between the traditional OEMs and investors requires close collaboration and reciprocity. Investors have been and still are opening new dealer locations to enable a broad presence and drive volume growth for OEMs. In return, OEMs need to keep the interest of investors in mind when defining new ways to interact with customers and sell cars.

Raymond LeeManaging Director Greater ChinaSime Darby Motor Group

26

Page 27: The future of automotive sales in China | Accenture · the EV market to grow by more than 1,000% since 2015. The market now accounts for 4.7% of the total Chinese automotive market.

Tomanagethetransition,OEMsneedtodifferentiatebetween the one-time investment for the transformation andthesubsequentannualnetsavingstheywillgain.The former describes the immediate investment needed and the budget that must be allocated for the transformationproject.OnemajorcostdriverwillbetheadaptationofexistingITandthedevelopmentofnewITsystems,suchasonlinestores,pricing,invoicing,customerrelationshipmanagement(CRM),customerdatamanagement(CDM)orpointofsale(POS)systems.Further,OEMswillneedadedicatedfull-timeprojectteam,whichwilloftentimesbesupportedbyanexternalteamoflegal,ITandbusinessexperts.Lastly,OEMscanexpecttoincurcostsforthingslikedevelopingtrainingconcepts,trainingdealers,andsettingupsupportfunctions,amongothers.Theinitialinvestmentcosts for a market the size of China are estimated at between50and90milliondollars,dependingonthematurityandcomplexityofsystems,processreadiness,networkstructure,andthescopeofthetransformation,ourprojectexperienceshows.

TocalculatetheannualnetsavingsOEMscanachieve,wewillnextlookathowthecostofsaleswillchangewith the move from an indirect to a direct sales model. Wehaveseenthreepositivefinancialfactorsandthreenegativefinancialfactorsinourprojects,althoughtheresultingimpactisoverwhelminglypositive:

Intra-brand efficienciesByexertingpricecontrol,OEMscanreduceoreveneliminate competition among their brand dealers. Whennegotiationsbecomeathingofthepast*andpricesbecomechannel-agnostic,OEMscanenforcetransactionpriceswhicharetypically1-1.5%abovepricesinanindirectsalesmodel.AsHyundai’sLiHongpengputsit,“Priceconsistencyis[…]thecore of the sales management process.”

Online salesOnlyinadirectsalesmodelcanOEMscreateanattractiveonlineofferingthatisnotthwartedbydealersundercuttingonlineprices.Instead,dealersparticipateinonlinesalesbyreceivingahandlingfee(i.e. fee for handing over the car to the customer). As onlinesalesenableoverallleanersalesprocesses,withahandlingfeebelowtoday’sdealermarginandbonus,OEMsgenerateupto0.5%offurthersavings.

Cost synergies Inadirectsalesmodel,OEMstakeoverseveraltasksandresponsibilitiesfromdealers(e.g.invoicing,stockmanagement,stockownership),meaningthatcostsshift from the dealer to the OEM. Centralizing tasks cancreatesignificantcostsynergies,e.g.because theOEMwillprofitfromlowerfinancingcoststhanindividualdealers.Further,thecostreductiononthedealersideamountstoroughly1-1.5%,whichstillensuresdealernetprofitparitybetweensalesmodels.

Marketing & operations Because ownership of customer data is transferred fromdealerstotheOEM,itisonlylogicalthatmarketingspending,too,willshifttotheOEM.Inaddition,overalloperationalcostswillincrease,e.g.higherITruncosts.Insum,projectexperiencehasshownmarketingandoperationalcostswillgrowby0.5-1%.

Personnel costs AsOEM’sdomore,theywillneedmorepeople. Projectexperiencehasrepeatedlyshownafull-timeequivalent(FTE)increaseof10-15%inOEMsales-relateddepartments,resultinginupto0.5%additionalcost of sales.

Stock ownershipInthedirectsalesmodel,theOEMassumesstockownership until the car is sold to a customer. This impliesanincreaseinstockfinancingcosts.Moreover,expensesincurredinstoring,transportingandhandling the vehicle are no longer shared with the dealer.Thisincreasesthecostofsalesby1-1.5%.

What OEMs need to achieve is price consistency. This does not mean a price is the MSRP and it will never be adjusted, but it means that price adjustments need to be unified. Adjustments should be done in the whole market and not by single dealers. In fact, price consistency is a management element that we should consider the core of the sales management process.

Li HongpengChief Business Officer Hyundai Motor Group (China)

On average, dealer remuneration for new car sales amounts to

5-8% of the list price

* Find out more on the future of automotive pricing in our new study: Vehicle pricing in the new automotive reality

27

Page 28: The future of automotive sales in China | Accenture · the EV market to grow by more than 1,000% since 2015. The market now accounts for 4.7% of the total Chinese automotive market.

Direct sales business case

One-time invest ≈ $50-90m

$20-60mIT systems

central and local

$5-20mProject team≈ 30-100 FTE

$10-20mExternal support

≈ 10-30 FTE

$3-6mDealer training

concept development

Amortization after 1-3 years

No negative impact on dealer net profit

Dealer perspective

“How will my net profit change and what will I earn in a direct sales model?”

OEM perspective

“Which savings does a direct sales strategy generate and at which costs?”

Annual savings and costs ≈ $50-90m

Today’s CoS

Intra-brand efficiencies

Online sales

Costsynergies

Marketing & operations

Personnel costs

Stock ownership

Tomorrow’s CoS

2-4%p CoS savings potential 1-2%p additional CoS

-1.0-1.5%

-0.5-1.0%-1.0-1.5% +0.5-1.0% +0-0.5%

+1.0-1.5% 23-29%25-30%

-1-3%p in CoS

Rebate Commission

Annual savings and costs/change in compensation ≈ $0

TODAY TOMORROW

OEMtacticals

Bonus(qual. & quant.)

Fixed margin 10-12%

4-6%

1-4%

Margin & bonus

Direct costs & overhead

Retained margin

Shift of rebate to OEM

Shift of costs to OEM

Same dealer net profit

12-14%

5-7%

1-3% 1-3%5-8%

4-6%

Direct costs & overhead

Tomorrow’s retained margin

Source: Accenture

28

Page 29: The future of automotive sales in China | Accenture · the EV market to grow by more than 1,000% since 2015. The market now accounts for 4.7% of the total Chinese automotive market.

The COVID-19 crisis has increased interest in how an economicdownturnwouldlikelyaffectOEMs’anddealers’performancewhenoperatinginanindirectvs.adirectsalesmodel.Whilerealworldexperienceislimited,simulationshaverevealedastrikingresilienceof the direct sales model.

To understand how the direct sales model compares totoday’sindirectmodel,itisimportanttoacknowledgewhattypicallyhappensinacrisis:First,customerdemandandsalesvolumesplummet.Then,stocklevelswithinthenetworkincrease,leadingtolongerstockholdingperiods(i.e.thenumberofdaysfromproduction of a vehicle to its handover to a customer). Afterthat,asdealersdesperatelytrytoselltheirstock,theyofferhigherdiscounts,whichmeansthattransaction prices fall.

Withadirectsalesmodel,dealersprofittwofold:Forone,thecostsofstockownershiparetransferredtothe OEM. This means that dealers are relieved of high financingcosts.Additionally,dealersareprotectedfrom falling prices because their remuneration is typicallybasedonthelistpriceandnotthetransactionprice.Insum,thedirectsalesmodelcantherebymitigate much of the negative impact of an economic crisis on the dealer and provide an uplift in return on newcarsalesofupto28%.(Notethatdealers’businessinusedcars,aftersalesandserviceislargelyunaffectedbythetransitiontodirectsalesandthereforeisstillnegativelyimpactedinacrisis).

FortheOEM,thestrongfinancialbenefits(i.e.intra-brandefficiencies,onlinesalesandcostsynergies)ofthe direct sales model provide a certain buffer against economicdownturns.Butifacrisisbecomessystemicwith a prolonged and severe impact on sales volumes andprices,thefinancialbenefitswillbesubsumedbytheadditionalcostofsales(i.e.costsofstockownership,personnel,marketingandoperations).ThisiswhythepresidentandCEOofBMWBrilliance,Dr.JohannWieland,saysthatwhilethedirectsalesmodelcanstabilizedealermargins,OEMsmustmakesurenottotakeonmoreriskthentheycandigest.

However,asBerndPichler,Bentley’sRegionalDirector inAsia-Pacific,notes,theindirectsalesmodelisnotwithout risk for OEMs as well. During the COVID-19 pandemic,OEMsinvestedmassivelyintothenetworktopreventdealershipsfromfinancialcollapse.Theyofferedmeasuressuchasextendedpaymentterms,loansorevenequityinvestments.Suchsupportmechanisms would not be needed in a direct salesmodel,whichwouldcounterbalanceOEMs’additional costs.

Intheend,thelogicissimple:Thedirectsalesmodellowers competition between dealers of the same brand,whichenablesOEMstorealizehighertransactionprices.Moreover,itallowsOEMstotrulypushonlinesalesbyeliminatingthecannibalizationofsaleschannelsandensuringdealerparticipation.Lastly,astasksarecentralizedattheOEM-level,costsynergiescan be created. All of this results in a total margin improvementofupto2%.

Furthermore,OEMsregaincontroloverallsaleschannels,allowingthemtoharmonizedealers’salesactivities,optimizelogistics,manageresalevalues,anddirectlynegotiatetermsandconditionswiththird-partyplatforms.Finally,owningthecustomerinterfacemeansOEMscanstarttocreateagreat,consistentexperienceofthebrandacrossalltouchpoints,helpingtobuildtrulyengaging,life-longrelationshipsand to unlock future value pools.

All of these aspects provide an important advantage inastableeconomybutbecomeindispensablewhenthe going gets rough.

Direct sales models hold significant opportunities to stabilize dealers’ margins but should be focused on well selected use cases. The dealer network must remain intact and risk consolidation must be digestible for the OEM.

Dr. Johann E. WielandPresident & CEO BMW Brilliance Automotive Ltd.

Launching a direct sales model in China requires a one-time investment of

$50-90 million

29

Page 30: The future of automotive sales in China | Accenture · the EV market to grow by more than 1,000% since 2015. The market now accounts for 4.7% of the total Chinese automotive market.

Direct sales in times of economic crisis

Crisis scenario: Reduction of sales volume and increase of rebate and stock age

Indirect salesNet turnover $ 2.840.879

Vehicle sales income $ 60.124.427

OEM purchase price $-50.203.897

Discount $ 7.695.927

Other income $ 616.275

Direct costs $ 1.506.670

Vehicle handover (PDI) $ 314.937

Vehicle handling, fuel, etc. $ 830.290

Other direct costs $ 361.443

Overhead expenses $ 2.111.665

HR $ 487.495

Marketing $ 300.622

Demo cars $ 14.733

Admin $ 60.453

Property, rent & insurance $ 541.662

Depreciation $ 14.857

Interest $ 691.843

Net profit before tax - $ 777.456

RoS new car sales -27,4%

Agency modelNet turnover $ 2.810.817

Fixed remuneration $ 1.593.297

Bonus $ 601.244

Discount –

Other income $ 616.275

Direct costs $ 1.506.670

Vehicle handover (PDI) $ 314.937

Vehicle handling, fuel, etc. $ 830.290

Other direct costs $ 361.443

Overhead expenses $ 1.282.020

HR $ 487.495

Marketing $ 162.498

Demo cars $ 7.800

Admin $ 67.708

Property, rent & insurance $ 541.662

Depreciation $ 14.857

Interest –

Net profit before tax $ 22.127

RoS new car Sales 0,8%

Baseline scenario: 2% return on new car sales

Sales volume-30% sales volume

decline over 3 month

Vehicle list price$32,500

Sales volume2,000 vehicles/year

Vehicle list price$32,500

Dealer rebate12%

Dealer rebate+13% (+1%)

Stock age70 days for BtS and

14 days for BtO

Stock age100 days for BtS (+30)

and 14 days for BtO

Up to 28% uplift in dealer return on new car sales

Source: Accenture

Introduction of remuneration

scheme

Rebate covered by OEM

Elimination of stock financing costs

30

Page 31: The future of automotive sales in China | Accenture · the EV market to grow by more than 1,000% since 2015. The market now accounts for 4.7% of the total Chinese automotive market.

31

Page 32: The future of automotive sales in China | Accenture · the EV market to grow by more than 1,000% since 2015. The market now accounts for 4.7% of the total Chinese automotive market.

3.3 A transformation roadmap for the future of automotive sales

TheshifttodirectsalesrequiresOEMstosetupadedicatedprojectteamwithacarefullycalibratedgovernancestructureandclearresponsibilities.Whiledifferentarchetypesofdirectsaleswillrequirefocusondifferenttopics,ithasprovenbeneficialtostructurethetransformationprojectalongthefourareasofPMO,conceptwork,processdesignandITsystems.

Conceptsaredrawnforcustomer-facing,back-officeandcrossfunctionalbusinessareas.Theyanswerkeyquestionsregardingthefuturesalesmodeland,whencombined provide a holistic picture of the target state. Important deliverables include clear guidelines for agentremuneration,avolumesteeringplanandalegal review of all concepts.

The different concepts all feed into one holistic end-to-endprocessview,whichdetailstheentiresalesjourneyincludingallpossiblescenarios—forthecustomer,thedealer,theOEMandthirdparties.

Comparing this end-to-end process with the status quoenablesthedefinitionofpreciseITrequirements,ensuring the development of tools for a superior directsalesexperience.

Duetotheextensivescopeofadirectsalestransformation,OEMsfarewellbystartingasmallerpilotbeforetransformingtheentiresalesnetwork,ourprojectexperiencehasshown.Typically,pilotscanfocus on selected customer groups (e.g. private or commercialcustomers),productlines(e.g.ICEsorNEVs),ormarketregions.Thismakesthesalestransformationmorefeasibleandyieldsmeasurablesuccess.However,tomaximizediscountefficiencies,costsynergies,andtheintegrationofonlineandofflinechannels,afull-blownagencyrolloutisnecessary.

Figure 11: Considerations and deliverables for selected work packages

Remuneration

Online

Main questions• Should we maintain net profit parity?• Should remuneration be activity-based?• What is the share of fixed commission vs. variable bonus

(incl. bonus elements)?• How can fraud potential be minimized?• ...

Main questions• How to create a seamless online/offline customer journey?• How to partner with 3rd-party platforms?• Which vehicles will we sell online and at which prices?• ...

Legal

Order & Stock

Main questions• How to legally separate parallel sales models operated by one

retailer?• What will the agency contract look like?• Are directly sold products differentiated from products in the

indirect model?• ...

Main questions• How to optimize stock levels to minimize fixed capital?• How many demo cars are needed?• How to handle different stock types, incl. eventual remarketing?• ...

Key to-dos & deliverables• Acquire OEM license to sell vehicles• Orchestrate legal reviews for concepts• Draft agency contracts• Distribute agent contracts and get signatures from all

participating agents• ...

Key to-dos & deliverables• Set up regional stock pooling hubs to optimize availability and

lead time• Create a volume steering plan• Define high-end ordering process, incl. order cancellations• ...

Key to-dos & deliverables• Develop overall guidelines for future remuneration • Define and quantify remuneration elements• Define relevant remuneration processes in sales journey,

incl. pay-out triggers• ...

Key to-dos & deliverables• In-depth online sales journey assessment• Definition of online strategy and analysis of potential platform

partners• Definition and prioritization of online store requirements• ...

Source: Accenture

32

Page 33: The future of automotive sales in China | Accenture · the EV market to grow by more than 1,000% since 2015. The market now accounts for 4.7% of the total Chinese automotive market.

Direct sales go/no-go,incl. archetype selection

Go-live

Phase 1 – Discovery

Phase 2 – Design

Project set-up

Business case development

Conceptual corner stones

ITfreeze

17+

Phase 5 –Hypercare & rollout

Pilot hypercare

Concept implementation

Phase 3 – Build

Phase 4 – Implementation

Month

Concept scaling

Business concepts V1

Transformation support & training

Phase

Activities IT scalingTesting, migration and cutoverIT development

Design of concepts, processes, and roles

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Refinement and finalizationof concepts, processes, and roles

Project lead (& PMO)

Syst

em IT systems & landscape(encompasses all work packages)

Proc

ess

End-2-end processes view(encompasses all work packages)

Con

cept

Customer-facing

Back-office

Cross-functions

Business case & liquidity

• Business case from agent & OEM perspective

• Balance sheet & liquidity effects • Scenario analysis

Change management

• Communication of new sales model

• Training of retailers & OEM staff

• Go-Live Support

Legal • Agency contract • Legal standards and regulations

• Legal review for other work packages

Customer & marketing• CRM• Customer data• Lead & campaign

mgmt.

Offline• Customer journey

harmonization• Process requirements

Online• eCommerce strategy• Online store

alignment & requirements

Used car & aftersales• Interfaces to indirect

dealer business • Used car appraisal

integration

Order & stock• Order management • Logistics optimization• Demand planning

Lease & finance• Offering definition• Captive vs. non-

captive steering across channels

Invoice & billing• Direct invoicing• Accounting

integration• Process automation

Pricing• Pricing engine• Transaction price

definition• Campaigns/tacticals

steering

Remuneration• Remuneration model

& levels• Payout mechanism• Sales target setting

Functions & roles• New agent role

definition• New OEM

responsibilities• Resource ramp-up

Figure 13: Phased transformation approach

Figure 12: Typical direct sales transformation project setup

Withastrong,dedicatedteam,theshiftfromindirectto direct sales can be accomplished within 18 to 24 months.Beforestartingthetransformation,werecommendOEMscheckthegeneralfeasibilityandstudythemarketenvironmenttopinpointthebenefitsandrisksoftheproject,includinganevaluationoftheinvolvedstakeholders,suchasJVpartnersanddealergroups.Thentheycanpassthroughdiscovery,design,build,implementation,andthehyper-careandrolloutphasestosuccessfullybringthenewsalesmodeltolife.

Inordertoexcelinthedirectsalestransformation,OEMs must put the customer at the heart of all operations,somethingthatiseasiersaidthandone. ItrequiresOEMstoredefinetheirrolefrombeingamanufacturer to becoming a retailer. This is where the future of automotive sales in China lies.

Source: Accenture

Source: Accenture

33

Page 34: The future of automotive sales in China | Accenture · the EV market to grow by more than 1,000% since 2015. The market now accounts for 4.7% of the total Chinese automotive market.

Doing nothing is not an option. OEMs that fail to futureprooftheirsalesmodelsothatissatisfiesconsumers’demandsforatransparent,convenientandseamlessexperience,risklosingaround30%ofrevenuetonewcompetitorswithinthenext10to15years.12OnlyaboldparadigmshiftcanshieldOEMsfromimpendingdisruption:Theymustputthecustomer front and center.

Withpowerfulinvestorsandstrongdealerassociations,however,changemustofferbenefits toOEMsanddealersalike.Asthisstudyhasshown,implementinganagencymodelenablescarmakerstocreatetrulyseamlessonline-offlinejourneys,providetouchless sales that have become the norm during the COVID-19pandemic,andsatisfycustomerdemandsfortransparent,haggle-freeprices.Moreover,itsupportsdealersbyshiftingfinancialrisktotheOEM,ensuringthatOEMscanpreservethephysicalnetworkthatdifferentiates them from newcomers who do not have asimilargeographicalreach.Lastly,itprovidesOEMsand dealers with the means to protect the customer interfacebycentrallysteeringandleveragingthird-partyplayersformutualgain,anditsignificantlyimprovesalesmargins.Thereby,thedirectsalesmodelunlocksthestrategicandfinancialleversthatareneededtostayaheadofthetechnologicalinnovationcurve in China.

To be part of and steer the future of automotive sales in China, we recommend OEMs start with the following five actions:

1. Understand what your company needs to thrive in China, including consumer demands, dealer sentiment and competitors’ moves

2. Adopt a retailer’s mindset that puts the customer front and center

3. Uncover the organizational, technological and financial implications of a direct sales transformation by conducting a thorough feasibility analysis

4. Setup a dedicated project team to draft the direct sales transformation roadmap from early pilot to full-blown rollout

5. Engage with the dealer network to secure investor support and generate strong buy-in

4. ConclusionThe Chinese automotive market is crucial for automotive OEMs. Its size and innovation power make it so. But with 400+ OEMs in the market, winning the battle for the customer is hard. To stay ahead, OEMs must radically rethink their sales model. The traditional way of selling cars will soon be obsolete.

It’s time to act. Now.

34

Page 35: The future of automotive sales in China | Accenture · the EV market to grow by more than 1,000% since 2015. The market now accounts for 4.7% of the total Chinese automotive market.

References1 Statista (2020): Car sales (passenger and commercial vehicles) in China from 2009 to 2019,

https://www.statista.com/statistics/233743/vehicle-sales-in-china/ 2 CAAM (2019-2020): Economic operation of the auto industry in August 2019 – August 2020,

http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/1/cate_3/con_5231797.html3 Financial Times (2020): China car sales notch first rise in almost 2 years,

https://www.ft.com/content/34e5759f-107c-4e8b-a372-7096d599c9fd 4 Statista (2020): Monthly automobile sales in China 2019-2021

https://www.statista.com/statistics/276899/automobile-sales-in-china-by-month/5 Statista (2020): Electric vehicle sales across China in 1st half of 2020, by leading original equipment manufacturer,

https://www.statista.com/statistics/976376/china-electric-vehicles-sales-by-oem/ 6 Green Tech Media (2019): China to Eliminate Subsidies for Hydrogen Fuel-Cell Cars: Report,

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/china-to-eliminate-subsidies-for-fuel-cell-cars 7 Statista (2020): Annual sales volume of new energy vehicles in China from 2011 to 2019, by type,

https://www.statista.com/statistics/425466/china-annual-new-energy-vehicle-sales-by-type/ 8 Technode (2019): Tencent joins the race and creates dedicated auto intelligence team,

https://technode.com/2019/06/10/tencent-new-mobility-department-iov/9 Accenture (2019): Direct. A New Way for OEMs to Thrive in Times of Disruption,

https://www.accenture.com/_acnmedia/PDF-108/Accenture-Study-The-Future-of-Automotive-Sales.pdf10 Financial Times (2020): Carmakers launch direct internet sales,

https://www.ft.com/content/6681b877-348b-486e-8149-aa9dc6bd7fa4 11 Reuters (2020): Volkswagen explores new sales model for electric models in China,

https://de.reuters.com/article/uk-volkswagen-electric-china-idUKKBN28J0CW 12 Accenture (2019): The Future of Automotive Sales. Pre-Release, C-Suite Insights,

https://www.accenture.com/_acnmedia/PDF-108/Accenture-Excerpt-OEM-Insights-Online.pdf

Page 36: The future of automotive sales in China | Accenture · the EV market to grow by more than 1,000% since 2015. The market now accounts for 4.7% of the total Chinese automotive market.

Copyright © 2021 Accenture. All rights reserved.

Accentureisaglobalprofessionalservicescompanywithleadingcapabilitiesindigital,cloudandsecurity.Combiningunmatchedexperienceandspecializedskillsacrossmorethan40industries,weoffer StrategyandConsulting,Interactive,Technology andOperationsservices—allpoweredbytheworld’slargestnetworkofAdvancedTechnologyandIntelligentOperationscenters.Our514,000peopledeliveronthepromiseoftechnologyandhumaningenuityeveryday,servingclientsinmorethan 120countries.Weembracethepowerofchange tocreatevalueandsharedsuccessforourclients,people,shareholders,partnersandcommunities. Visit us at www.accenture.com.

Authors About Accenture

The ideas and information in this publication are theresultofmanymonthsofworkbynumerousAccentureexperts,whomadethisperspectiveon the future of automotive sales in China possible.

Axel SchmidtGlobalIndustrySectorLeadAutomotiveaxel.schmidt@accenture.com

Johannes TrenkaAccentureStrategy,CEO&[email protected]

Dr. Maximilian HoltgraveAccentureStrategy,CEO&[email protected]

Tobias BüchsenschützAccentureStrategy,CEO&[email protected]

Florian-Frederik DeutgenStrategy&Consulting,[email protected]

Beatrix FrischAccentureInteractive,[email protected]

Marcello TamiettiStrategy&[email protected]

JIAO Yang (Dave)Strategy&Consulting,[email protected]

TheauthorswishtothankDr.MarcusDemmelmair,LudwigGöbl,andJulienPicartfortheirvaluablecontributionstothisstudy.

This document is intended for general informational purposes only and does not take into account the reader’s specific circumstances, and may not reflect the most current developments. Accenture disclaims, to the fullest extent permitted by applicable law, any and all liability for the accuracy and completeness of the information in this presentation and for any acts or omissions made based on such information. Accenture does not provide legal, regulatory, audit, or tax advice. Readers are responsible for obtaining such advice from their own legal counsel or other licensed professionals. This document may contain descriptive references to trademarks that may be owned by others. The use of such trademarks herein is not an assertion of ownership of such trademarks by Accenture and is not intended to represent or imply the existence of an association between Accenture and the lawful owners of such trademarks.


Recommended