The Future of Government Communications Networks

The Future of Government Communications Networks

Joe SkorupaResearch VP

California DTS, March 7, 2007

2© 2006 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.Gartner, Dataquest and ITxpo are registered trademarks of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates. Gartner for IT Leaders is a service mark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.

More sophisticated & demanding citizens

EmergencyCommunications

Border & Port Security

First Responder Networks

Improving efficiency &service consistency

Challenges and IT Delivery Trends

Commoditization & Consumerization

Virtualization & Tera-Architectures

Software Granularity & New Acquisition Models

Community & Collaboration

Challenges for Government IT New IT Realities



• IPv6• Video Telephony

Low

• Telepresence

• WAN Opt Controllers

• Network Config Mgt • Mobile Gateways• WiMAX• Streaming Video• Videoconferencing

• MPLS• SSL VPNs• VoIP over WLAN

Moderate

• Sensor Nets• HSUPA• Network Access Control

• HSDPA• Mesh Networks• Fixed/Mobile

Convergence• XML Appliances

• Application Delivery Controllers

• EV-DO• Location-aware tech• Telecom Exp Mgt

High

• VoIP WWAN• AirPBX

• IP Telephony Unified Comms

• NFC• UWB

Transformational

More Than 10 Years5 to 10 Years2 to 5 Years

Less Than 2 Years

Emerging Enterprise Network Technologies



• PC Application VirtualizationModerate

• Grid Computing• Commercial Telematics

• Ajax• Sales Configuration Systems

High

• Ubiquitous Collaboration• PC Software Appliances

• Service-Oriented Architecture (XML)

• PC Application Streaming• PC Virtualization

Transformational

5 to 10 Years2 to 5 YearsLess Than 2

Years

Beyond Networks: Watch These Technologies



Seven Dangerous Myths

• Networks Are Just Dumb Bandwidth

• My Architecture Is My Vendor

• Bandwidth Costs Are Going to Go UP!

• Big Is Good, So Biggest Must Be Best

• IT Must Own Everything

• Centralized IT Is Better IT



Communications Is Becoming Software

QOS Security Scale Optimization

Intranet Internet Home Carrier Mobile

Applications

Voice/video/data

Multiple NetworksDevices and Applications Servers and Datacenters

Switch-centric

Server- based

Client- based

VirtualApps

Infra

Integration

Offload

XML Processing

Dial toneMessage stores

Server- based

Server + offload

OverlaysSwitch/router

Physical

Integrated Layered

Avoid vendor-centric strategies

IP does not mean open

Emphasize integration, application support and security

Overlay first, integrate later

Coping StrategiesApplication Evolution (Voice)

Infrastructure Evolution (Core Network)



Software Creates a Fight for Control

Application

Server

Network

Middleware and Application Clustering

Virtualization Layer

Man

agem

ent S

oftw

are

OperSystem

As automation and standardization grow in infrastructure, vendors are vying for control of infrastructure control — trying to avoid commoditization

Storage

Operating System VendorsStrength: Current center of gravity

Application VendorsStrength: Understand business need

Networking Vendors

Strength: Touch everything

Middleware Vendors Strength: Application domain knowledge across service

Management Software Vendors Strength:

Understand service

architecture Virtualization Vendors Strength: Complete control of resources

Server Vendors Strength: Legacy center of gravity

Storage VendorsStrength: It's all

about data

"The Platform is the Network Device"

"The Platform is the Servers and Endpoints"

"The Platform is the Middleware Server"



New Modes of Client Application Delivery

Virtual Machines Protected images Deployment Manage images,

not PCs

Software as a Service Rich Internet applications

(RIA) – Google, Ajax, Live! Integrated (Vista) Enables new form factors Paid services, or subsidized

by advertising

The architecture of client computing has changed only gradually over the last 20 years. Connectivity and bandwidth are making new models

of client computing possible.

Predictions:

By 2009, 60% of enterprises will employ at

least five application delivery techniques

By 2010, at least 60% of new application

development projects will include RIA technology

Software Streaming Application streaming VM streaming ("players") OS streaming Management flexibility

Remote Hosting Server-based Blade-based PCs Virtual desktops Central

management



Strategic Planning Assumption

By 2010, the Internet will be able to support 70 percent of business needs and deliver acceptable consumer quality (0.8 probability).

By 2010, the majority of large enterprises will rely on MPLS for their WAN needs (0.8 probability).

By 2010, the majority of small and midsize businesses (SMBs) will rely on IP virtual private networks (VPN) over the public Internet for their WAN needs (0.8 probability).



Trends Driving Network Planning

Voice applications server; wireless; presence and messaging; security embedded into LAN/WAN

LAN and telephony infrastructure converge on IP over Ethernet

LAN

Remote offices adopt public Internet as "good enough"Core networks rely on MPLS for its flexibility

WANWorkers are more nomadic;

Quality of and access to broadband Internet improves

Networks optimize applicationsCollaboration, video applications (multicast or training-on-demand) growApplication integration with mobile devices drives fixed/mobile convergence

Applications

Directory, policy, security and presence management integrated into applications




By 2008, 50 percent of organizations will no longer have a pure-TDM PBX or key system (0.7 probability).



0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

The IP Telephony Transition Has Begun• Changes the way we look at

telephony — and the way we manage it

• There is no universal business case — cost, features, integration are all factored in

• Peer to peer voice, centralization of voice; centrally managed, with either centralized management or virtualized

• Requires critical integration to data network management processes:- Network assessment, monitoring,

security, change management must adapt

• 2007+ : Mobility will be the most important requirement for VoIP

Enterprise Line Shipments(North America)

TDM lines

Pure IP

IP-Enabled

Source: Gartner Dataquest, 2005

• Site-specific designs are shifting toward common blueprints and consistent functionality, supporting unified applications



Evolution of the Multiservice WAN

NewInternet

Past 2004-2006 2006-2008 2009+Partial MPLS• Migration to

MPLS (large offices) and VPN (small/remote)

IP WAN• Frame Relay

decline• Internet/

MPLS blur

Separate Networks• Voice on the PSTN• Frame relay is 'private'• Internet VPN for

mobile/remote

Integrated• All MPLS• Tiered

services?

PSTN

Frame Relay Frame Relay

MPLS

PSTN

MPLS

VPN

PSTN

ATM

ISDNVSAT

NewInternet

VPN VPN




Through 2011, the useful life of basic network infrastructure equipment will be twice that of advanced functions (0.8 probability).



Network Lifespan — Basic Infrastructurevs. Innovative Services

Depreciation Useful Life

WirelessLAN (2006)

IP-PBX(2006)

WAN Router(2006)

Edge Switch(2006)

Core EthernetSwitch (2006)

ADC(2006)

WOC(2006)

0 2 4 6 8 10Years

BasicInfrastructure

• Conflicting lifespans

- Build open infrastructure

- Add services first through overlay

• Replacement is driven by:

- Infrastructure requirements

- Risk avoidance

- Price (capital and support)

• Services driven by:

- New application adoption

- Business process

ServicesOverlay




Through 2010, critical client-facing business processes will continue to be pushed out to branch offices (0.8 probability).

Through 2010, financial and regulatory concerns will drive server consolidation and centralization (0.8 probability).



End to End Reliability and Performance— Adding Logical Services

Persistent Datacenter• WOC• WAFS• ECDN/(video, patches)• DNS/DHCP• Domain controller• Print• Security

Visible Services:• Mail• File/print• Business appls• Basic productivity appls

Invisible Services:• DNS/DHCP• Domain controller• Data protection• Policy• Access control• BW management

BranchOffice

ApplicationDelivery

Controller

SSLTermination

SpoofingOptimized

Flows

BOB

IP Network

Spoofing



Infrastructure Support

Equipment

Carrier Services

Attacking the Cost Problem

Consolidate Negotiate Manage

– Assets– Suppliers– Usage

Start with a PLAN

Simplify– Centralize – Standardize

Automate Outsource

Negotiate through channels

Time purchases Consider alternate vendors

Maintenance and/or sparing

Understand Total Costs Hardware Carrier fees Personnel Support

services

Facilities Agency

spend User self

support



A Vendor is Not an Architecture

• Mobility Dual Mode• UC Twinning

• Enterprise IP PBX• VoIP Toll Bypass• Managed/Outsourced/ Hosted

IP PBX

• Thick Client• Rich Client• Streaming

• Wi-Fi• Mesh

• Persistent Branch

• Unified

• MPLS• Ethernet

Choices

Fixed/Mobile Convergence

Voice over IP

Mobility

Wireless WAN

Branch Office

Global WAN

WAN Architecture

Domain

• Unlicensed Mobile Access• IMS

• IP Trunking/Gateway Services• Broadband IP Telephony• IP Centrex• Personal Internet Telephony

• Thin Client• Messaging• No Client

• 3G• WiMAX

• Persistent Data Center

• Regional • Local

• Internet VPN• Hybrid

A Few of Many Critical Decisions …A Few of Many Critical Decisions …



The Vendor Influence Curve What are Benefits of being at Level 3?

• A better network• Control of IT strategy• Save money

How to Get to Level 3?• Understand business requirements• Build your own strategic plan• Never award business by default• Get outside input• Competitively bid projects• Avoid proprietary protocols between

network layers




Organizations that proactively assess and negotiate for network support and maintenance can reduce yearly support fees by at least 20 percent (0.7 probability).



Four Steps for Providing Efficient Maintenance

Negotiate and competitively bid Understand market dynamics —

discounts have changed! Total contract, percent covered

and contract length determine discount

Understand what coverage you need

Self spare basic infrastructure — especially devices with little software change

Look at refurb market for spares

Look to managed services Bundled solution for equipment,

maintenance and support Treat level 2 and level 3 as utility

Consider other vendors for varying service models(free software upgrades, lifetime warranty…)

Just pay for 'service' not maintenance

11

22

33

44



Aligning Support to Delivery

Communications are managed by a single, central organization, including any remote sites; all infrastructure spending is controlled centrally

Each business unit manages its own communications and spending, operating independently of other business units

Corporate infrastructure group is responsible for own communications as well as coordinating division units, as shown by the dotted lines

• Economies of scale, efficiency

• Cost visibility & control• Easier development/

integration of enterprise applications

• Responsive to local needs

• Business awareness• Rapid development and

deployment of solutions

• Combines benefits of both decentralized and centralized

• Balances central and local needs

• Traditionally less flexible• Isolated from the

business• Less responsive to

local needs

• High cost due to duplication

• Difficult to share data or expertise

• Architectural diffusion

• Less efficient due to duplication, coordination and overhead

• Requires stronger governance

Enterprise organization model Advantages DisadvantagesCharacteristics

Decentralized

Federated

Business unit Contact center technology group



Agreed Services

Charges/Payments

Shared Services Provider

Customer 1

Customer 2

Customer 3

Resourcing: InsourcedBought-inOutsourced

Defined set of services and fees Service-level agreements Client relationship processes

Adopting Shared Network Services

• Benefits through:- Aggregation - Consolidation- Simplification- Standardization

• Cost and service focused

• Making it work- Governing council- Operating standards- Client relationship- Client-focused team

and SLAs- Common interests- Capable sourcing

and service delivery

Ownership and

Governance

Shared Services Centralized Services



Approaches to Shared Services

Broad Scale/Scope

Limited Scale/Scope

Voluntary Mandatory

Hardest Easiest

'Whole-of-Government' or Enterprise Approach

• Large number of participants (can be 100+)

• Common in State Govt jurisdictions• Usually involve internal, transactional

processes and broad infrastructure capabilities. Initiatives typically involve major changes

Joint Initiative Approach• Moderate to large number of participants

(typically 10 -15 foundation members, can grow to 70+)

• Common in Municipal/Local Govt jurisdictions and geographic regions

• Can involve a wide variety of sharable processes and capabilities

Domain or Cluster Approach

• Modest number of participants (typically 5 - 10)

• Common in Federal and State jurisdictions

• Can involve the full range of sharable services. Increasingly being used as part of a 'whole of Government' approach

Limited Partnership• Small number of participants

(typically 2 to 6)• Common in Municipal/Local Govt and

between jurisdictions (e.g. multiple State Governments) and geographic locales

• Can cover any sharable process and capability, often driven by a common 'pain point'



Aligning Operational Cost to Need

Requirements and Business Needs Analysis

Capacity Planning

Planning

Procurement

Configuration

Installation

Fault Monitoring

Performance Monitoring/Reporting

Design

Security Management

Fault Analysis (Root Cause)

Change Management

Strategize

Plan/Build

Optimize

Deliver

Fre

quen

cy –

How

Oft

en Y

ou D

o It

Importance – How Critical Is It

Size of Bubble = DifficultyMost companies focus on these things…

… but ignore these things



Corporate Strategic Plan Mission and strategic directionMarkets and productsCompetitive positioning

Network Plan

Business or net needsTechnologies or servicesDesign and configurationSourcingTimingCapital & operating budgets

IT Architecture ApplicationsInfrastructureOperationsManagement processesSourcing

Global Widget

Plan First, Then Build/Buy Network Services

Pull a Team Together to Analyze…

Business Needs Network NeedsSelectedServices

NetworkServices

Services

NeedsAnalysis

Applications, traffic typesGrowthSite types or locationsCost constraintsDegree of controlSecurityRisk profile

Bandwidth or growthConnectivityService levelsAvailabilityFeatures or functions

. . .. .

Network Plans: Now Even More Relevant



Recommendations• Build a two to three year prioritized communications plan

• Adopt shared services model

• Plan on infrastructure overlays to provide value-added functionality with 18-24 months (or better) ROI

• Focus investments on application performance, network-based security, wireless and mobility, IP WANs and converged voice

• Network teams should take on more responsibility for security operations

• Consider the capabilities of alternate suppliers

• Evaluate the importance of maintenance on low-value network equipment



Recommendations• Change Past Design Criteria

- Don't blindly follow

- Don't buy screen phones if you have a PC on your desk

- Don't do 1 Gigabit Ethernet to the desktop

- Use Internet arbitrage

- Upgrade the network, not the bandwidth

- Upgrade the business, not the technology

• Change the business by investing in- UC

- Applications Acceleration and WAN Optimization

- Intelligent mobile devices (during refresh)

- WLAN (with the ability to support voice)

• Spend money, but spend it in the right places and return the rest to stakeholders.

The Future of Government Communications Networks

Joe SkorupaResearch VP

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The Future of Government Communications Networks

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