The Future of Higher Education - University of …2018/03/28 · The Future of Higher Education...

The Future of Higher EducationImplementing Collaborative Student Success Strategies

Paula Myrick ShortSenior Vice Chancellor for Academic Affairs, UH System

Senior Vice President for Academic Affairs and Provost, UH

Raymund ParedesCommissioner

Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board

Michael S. McPhersonPresident Emeritus

Spencer Foundation

The Future of Higher Education: National Priorities and RecommendationsMichael S. McPhersonPresident EmeritusSpencer Foundation

Charge

• Report with recommendations

• Undergraduate education, understood broadly

• 20 to 25 year time horizon

Commission members

Chairs

Roger W. Ferguson, Jr. TIAA

Michael S. McPherson formerly, Spencer Foundation

Members

Joseph E. AounNortheastern University

Deborah Loewenberg Ball University of Michigan

Sandy Baum Urban Institute

Rebecca M. Blank University of Wisconsin-Madison

John Seely Brown formerly, Xerox PARC Research

Wesley G. Bush Northrop Grumman

Carl A. Cohn California Collaborative for Educational Excellence

Mitchell E. Daniels, Jr. Purdue University

John J. DeGioiaGeorgetown University

Jonathan F. FantonAmerican Academy of Arts and Sciences

Robert HormatsKissinger Associates; formerly, United States Department of State

Freeman A. Hrabowski III University of Maryland, Baltimore County

Jennifer L. Jennings Princeton University

Jeremy Johnson Andela

Sherry Lansing Sherry Lansing Foundation

Nicholas Lemann Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism

J. Michael Locke formerly, Rasmussen, Inc.

Monica Lozano College Futures Foundation

Gail O. Mellow

LaGuardia Community College

Diana NatalicioUniversity of Texas at El Paso

Hilary Pennington Ford Foundation

Beverly Daniel Tatum formerly, Spelman College

Shirley M. Tilghmanformerly, Princeton University

Michelle Weise Strada Education Network

Project Staff

Francesca Purcell

Eliza Berg

Three action areas

• College completion

• Quality

•Affordability

A New Era: Access no longer the core problem

• Almost 90% of HS grads begin college before age 30

BUT

• 40% of four-year enrollees drop out

• More than half of two-year college students drop out

• Disproportionate impact on minorities, first-year, low-income

• Huge economic, political and social issue

Success is the big problem

• Completing programs

• Quality: Learning and earning credentials of value

How we understand quality

• Prepare for career success

• Prepare for active, effective citizenship

• Prepare for richer cultural and personal life

• Goals for all students, not only the privileged

Liberal vs vocational education?

• Liberal education:• Problem solving• Critical thinking• Communicating

• Vocational education:• Sustainable career in the face of continued turmoil and

technical change

• Not separate paths

Misperceptions about affordability are widespread

• Increases in published tuition prices are not a good indicator of how unaffordable college has become.

• Lowering tuition prices would not solve the affordability problems for most students.

• Affordability is not all about how much money students have before college and how much they pay for college.

15

Tuition & fees—even before financial aid—make up about 20% of budget for full-time community college students; 40% for in-state

students at public 4-year colleges.• Average Estimated Full-Time Undergraduate Budgets (Enrollment-Weighted) by Sector, 2018-19

Source: The College Board, Trends in College Pricing 2018, Figure 1.

It’s not just about money

• Lack of academic and social support and guidance is a bigger barrier than tuition for many students.

• Deming and Walters, “The Impacts of Price and Spending Subsidies on U.S. Postsecondary Attainment”

Other barriers to college affordability

• Unequal and inadequate institutional resources

• Income inequality

• Income before, during, and after college

Affordability is not separate from quality and value

• Affordability depends on the value of the education and its financial payoff, not just the price.

• Resources before, during, and after college matter for college affordability

Income inequality underlies affordability problems: Mean income of each fifth and top 5 of families, 2007, 2012, and 2017

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2017, Table F-3.

$18,420

$43,161

$68,098

$99,856

$205,150

$18,944

$46,346

$75,840

$115,834

$245,039

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

Lowest 20% Second 20% Third 20% Fourth 20% Highest 20%

1997 2007 2017

Student debt is a problem—but popular perceptions misrepresent the problem

• The main problem with student debt is not that college graduates are struggling to repay large debts.

• Non-completions creates the biggest problems.

• Borrowers with small debts frequently struggle most.

Default rates are highest among borrowers with small balances. More than 40% of defaulters owe $10,000 or less.Share of Defaulters and Three-Year Federal Student Loan Default Rate Among Borrowers Entering Repayment in 2010-11, by Loan Balance

SOURCE: The College Board, Trends in Student Aid 2016, Figure 12B

Half of outstanding education debt is held by households in top quarter of income distribution.Share of education debt held by households age 25 and older, by income quartile

Lowestquartile

10%

Second quartile 19%

Third quartile 23%

Highest quartile 49%

Bottom 2nd 3rd Top

Source: Baum and Lee, “Affluent households owe the most student debt, Urban Institute, 2017

Policy directions I: Federal Funding

• Simplify / eliminate FAFSA

• Modify Pell to support full-time enrollment

• One automatic income-driven repayment plan

• Skin in the game / risk sharing for loans

• Eliminate worst schools

Policy Directions II: State funding

• Federal incentives

• Targeted at institutional and state levels

• Performance-based funding

Completion: a component of affordability

• Cost-saving innovations

• Reduced time to degree

o Strong student support systems

o Good teaching

o Data analytics, unit record data

o Guided pathways

o Personal contact

o Pro-active (“intrusive”) advising

• Strengthen K-12

Quality: Who’s minding the store?

NOT core priorities in much of higher ed:• Ongoing efforts to improve course design and instruction• Preparing faculty to teach• Selecting and promoting faculty• Reforming adjunct system

Developing and maintaining effective regulatory structure• For-profit vs. nonprofit• Regular and substantive interaction• Standards for outcomes

Three big ideas

• It’s about learning, not just credentials

• Cheap ≠ Affordable

• Liberal education is career education

Closing Slide

60x30TX: Targets, Goals, and StrategiesRaymund ParedesCommissionerTexas Higher Education Coordinating Board

The Future of Higher Education

March 28, 2019

Raymund A. Paredes

Commissioner of Higher Education

60x30TX: Texas Bold, Texas Achievable

31

32

Goal Target 2016 2017

One-Year Improvement

(pc = point change)

Annual %

Increase

Needed

2020Benchmark

2030Goal/ Target

60x30 60x30 (Educated Population) 41.0% 42.3% 1.3% pc 1.3% 48% 60%

Completion

Overall 321,410 333,920 3.9% 3.9% 376,000 550,000

Hispanic 103,889 111,344 7.2% 7.5% 138,000 285,000

African American 38,813 41,027 5.7% 4.5% 48,000 76,000

Male 135,849 141,564 4.2% 5.2% 168,000 275,000

Economically Disadvantaged 119,490 124,178 3.9% 5.3% 146,000 246,000

TX High School Graduates Enrolling in TX Higher Education

51.9% 52.3% 0.4 pc .7% 58% 65%

Marketable Skills

Working or Enrolled Within One Year 78.8% 78.4% -0.40% pc -- 80% 80%

Student Debt

Student Loan Debt to First Year Wage Percentage

60% 59% -1% pc -- 60% 60%

Excess SCH Attempted* 19 18 -1 SCH -- 12 3

Percent of Undergraduates Completing with Debt

48.2% 47.2% -1% pc -- 50% 50%

Texas made steady progress, but accelerated growth is needed for several targets related to completion and student debt

33

Key Insights

• The 60x30 goal and the completion goal showed strong improvement--at rates

needed to reach 2030 goals.

• Completions for male and economically disadvantaged students grew modestly but

are falling behind needed progress.

• Direct enrollment from high school increased slightly after a two-year decline and

requires additional attention.

• Marketable skills and student debt goals remain steady, although excess semester

credit hour reductions need to pick up the pace.

The 60x30 Educated Population goal increased by 1.3 percentage points from 2015 to 2016

34

The 60x30 Educated Population goal counts residents who follow a variety of education pathways, including those who. . .

• Migrate into TX with credentials or migrate to TX to earn a credential and stay

• Receive credentials in-state after attending public high school in TX

• Receive credentials in-state after earning GEDs, attending private high school

or homeschooling

• Receive credentials in-state as adult students who did not go directly from high

school or stopped out and returned to complete college

• Went to high school in TX, left the state to complete higher education, and

returned

35

• Retain Texas graduates

• Recruit graduates from other

states

• Strength of our economy is critical

• Economic development and job

opportunities

• 21st century industries

• Competitive wages

• Invest in and improve

pathways through Texas K-12

schools to ensure students

are college ready

• Improve all other pathways

into and through higher

education

36

While achievement of the 60x30 Educated Population Goal is possible, systemic improvements are essential for success

37

• Increase the number of Hispanic and African

American students completing a certificate or

degree.

• Increase the number of male and economically

disadvantaged students completing a certificate or

degree.

• Increase the percentage of all Texas public high

school graduates enrolling in a Texas institution of

higher education by the first fall after their high

school graduation.

COMPLETION

Targets to achieve this goal.

52K

87K

129K

53K

53K

91K

134K

56K

Bachelor’s degrees had the largest share, while associate completions increased fastest

Completions increased by more than 12,000 credentials between 2016 and 2017

38

38,81341,027

103,889111,344 119,490

124,178 135,849

141,564

Target:

76,000

Target:

285,000

Target:

246,000

Target:

275,000

All target populations increased completions; Hispanic and African American student completions achieved projected gains

39

22 percent of 8th graders complete a credential 11

years later

Texas public school 8th graders

• Complete high school within 5 years

• Complete a certificate or degree within 6 years

Many students follow a pathway directly from K-12 to higher education, though too few succeed today

40

Students who take alternative pathways make up 64 percent of undergraduate completions in Texas

36%

24%

26%

5%

9%

259,013 Students Completed Undergraduate Credentials in 2017

8th Grade Cohort completers(93,426)

More than 6 years in college ordelayed start (63,060)

Texas residents, did not graduate fromTexas public high school (67,568)

Out of state resident (12,682)

Out of country residents (22,277)

41

After a two-year decline, direct enrollment from high school increased slightly from 51.9% to 52.3%

42

The THECB enhanced support for the marketable skills goal; institutions reported varied levels of progress

• Marketable skills implementation guidelines were developed.

• Marketable skills conference offered technical assistance to institutions

about how to develop marketable skills and how to communicate skills

to students.

• The target related to the percent of graduates in Texas found working

and/or enrolled in Texas in the first year following graduation remained

steady at 78.8%.

43

Baseline Year

Recent Trend Years Target

2013 2014 2015 2030

59.5% 59.8% 58.9% 60%

Student debt as a percentage of first-year wage remained below the 60% goal

44

Target: Limit proportion of undergraduates with debt to no more than half.

The share of graduates with debt declined for the second year in a row to 47.2%

45

14

27

13

26

Target: Decrease excess SCH to 3 by 2030.

Excess semester credit hours decline modestly; substantial progress is needed to reach the 2020 benchmark of 12 SCH

46

Students are graduating more efficiently, with fewer excess semester credit hours

1514

13

2726

24

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2016 2017 2018

Excess Semester Credit Hours Attempted When Completing an Associate or Bachelor’s Degree

Bachelor's (Universities) Associate (CTCs)

-3 SCH for Associate Degrees = $11M in GR

$26M in Tuition & Fees

-2 SCH for Bachelor’s Degrees =$17M in GR

$66M in Tuition & Fees

47

48

• 60x30TX.com and revised accountability system

• Almanac (2019 edition coming soon)

• Data Fellows program

• Regional 60x30TX

Targets

THECB supports strategic use of data to inform institution-and state-level policy and practice

Investing in higher education is an important priority for the state and for individuals

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Communities Survey, 2014, 2015, and 2016.3-Year average inflation-adjusted earnings summed for ages 25 to 64 by educational attainment for those working more than 32 hours per week and 49 weeks per year.Inflation indices from Consumer Price Index Detailed Report Tables - https://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpi_dr.htm#2017

49

Major Policy Recommendationsto Achieve 60x30TX

50

51

Legislative Recommendation: Approval of New Off-Campus Sites

SB 2000 filed by Sen. Alvarado/HB 4586 by Rep. Anchia

- Require institutions obtain Coordinating Board review and approval prior to acquiring

property to create a new or expand an existing off-campus academic, technical

or research site. Limit the review and approval to sites that are not on or near

the main campus. Provide for confidential and expedited review of proposed

acquisitions.

- Ensures more efficient use of state resources and promotes objectivity in pursuit of

60x30TX goals

- Prevents unnecessary duplication

52

Legislative Recommendation: Texas WORKS Internship Program

SB 1192 filed by Sen. West/HB 3042 filed by Rep. Turner

- Modify the Texas College Work-Study program to institute Texas WORKS

- Texas WORKS will create a centralized off-campus work- study program to provide

students with limited financial means an opportunity to pursue paid internships

- Builds on Tri-agency findings and recommendations

- Contributes to 60x30TX goals for marketable skills and

student debt

53

Legislative Recommendation: 60x30TX Graduation Supplement

SB 1504 filed by Sen. Zaffirini/HB 3908 filed by Rep. Thierry

- Revise the Operations Support formula for universities to include an allocation

methodology for graduates, in addition to enrollments

- Award universities $500 per non at-risk graduate and $1,000

per at-risk graduate

- Mirrors recommendation from 85th Legislature

- Directly contributes to 60x30TX goal for increased degree completion

54

Legislative Recommendation: Improve Student Transfer

SB 1923 filed by Sen. West/HB 4019 filed by Rep. Turner

- Strengthen role of the Texas Core Curriculum in fulfilling general

education requirements and facilitating transfer

- Limit core to lower division courses consistent with the Texas

Common Course Numbering System (TCCNS).

- By creating more efficient transfer, will contribute to

60x30TX goals for completion and student debt

55

Funding Recommendations for the 2020-21 Biennium

- $500,000 for GradTX

- $1,300,000 for 60x30TX Regional Strategies

- $100,000 for Financial Literacy Initiatives

- $250,000 for Open Educational Resources Repository

- $200,000 for Open Educational Resources Grant Program

- Increase formula funding for public community colleges

- Total increase of $96.7M (or 5.5%) over the current biennium

- Increase funding for Student Success Points from $171.56 to $215 per point

- Increase formula funding for public technical colleges

- Total increase of $36M (or 25.1%) over the current biennium

- Increase funding for Returned Value Model at TSTC by $35.7M (or 28%)

56

If we achieve all these actions, we will make significant strides toward 60x30TX.

We will reinvigorate higher education as the primary engine of social mobility.

We must be relentless in these efforts.

Closing Slide

State Student Success and Demographic DataJulie EklundAssistant Commissioner, Strategic Planning and Funding DivisionTexas Higher Education Coordinating Board

State Student Success and Demographic Data

March 28, 2019

Julie A. Eklund, PhD

Assistant Commissioner

Strategic Planning and Funding

Student success matters: Investing in higher education is an important priority for the state and for individuals

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Communities Survey, 2014, 2015, and 2016.3-Year average inflation-adjusted earnings summed for ages 25 to 64 by educational attainment for those working more than 32 hours per week and 49 weeks per year.Inflation indices from Consumer Price Index Detailed Report Tables - https://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpi_dr.htm#2017

60

Data can highlight progress and inform action

This presentation will cover

• Statewide demographic data and projections

• Higher education enrollment forecast for 2018-2030

• Progress made on key student success metrics, statewide

• Regional collaborative work on 60x30TX priorities, and

• Selected Gulf Coast demographic and success data

61

Growing States, 2010-2018

Rank State 2010 2017 2018Numeric growth

2017-2018

Percent Growth 2017-2018

Percent Growth 2010-2018

1 Texas 25,146,114 28,322,717 28,701,845 379,128 1.3% 14.1%

2 Florida 18,804,580 20,976,812 21,299,325 322,513 1.5% 13.3%

3 California 37,254,523 39,399,349 39,557,045 157,696 0.4% 6.2%

4 Arizona 6,392,288 7,048,876 7,171,646 122,770 1.7% 12.2%

5 North Carolina 9,535,736 10,270,800 10,383,620 112,820 1.1% 8.9%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count, 2018 Population Estimates.

Slides 4-9 are courtesy of Texas Demographic Center, https://demographics.texas.gov/

https://demographics.texas.gov/

• About 1,039 people per day added to

our population.

• About 524 people per day from

natural increase (more births than

deaths)

• About 515 people per day from net

migration (288 international and

227 domestic migrants per day).

Natural Increase

50%

Domestic Migration

22%

International Migration

28%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2018 Population Estimates.

Texas added 379,128 people between July 1, 2017

and July 1, 2018.

Annual Shares of Recent Non-Citizen Immigrants to Texas by World Area of Birth, 2005-2015

44.1%

50.6%

69.4%

35.8%

33.0%

17.3%

7.1%

7.3%

7.8%

13.1%

9.1%

5.5%

2015

2010

2005

Latin America Asia Europe Africa and Other

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS. Population estimates 2017 vintage and 2000-2010 intercensual estimates

Estimated number of international migrants to Texas

101,588

77,702

98,194

DallasHoward

FoardFloyd

Brewster

FranklinHunt

Newton

Starr

Kinney

Collingsworth

TomGreen

Coleman

Brazoria

Leon

Duval

Lamb

Morris

Smith

Jackson

Medina

Wheeler

Dallam

Callahan

Lamar

Coryell

Gaines

Kendall

Nacogdoches

Milam

Hays

Willacy

Johnson

Reagan

Webb

Shackelford

Bowie

Scurry

Kenedy

Somervell

Oldham

Taylor

King

Borden

Walker

Stephens

Deaf Smith

Roberts

Tyler

Val Verde

Brown

Parker

Harris

Zapata

RedRiver

Karnes

PaloPinto

GlasscockShelby

Wood

Crosby

Refugio

Burnet

Sterling

Montgomery

San Augustine

Rains

Nueces

Jack

Swisher

Camp

Brazos

Orange

Colorado

Pecos

Cochran

Parmer

Freestone

Winkler

Wichita

Gray

Schleicher

Hardeman

TravisGillespie

Yoakum

Fayette

Uvalde

Grimes

VanZandt

Throckmorton

Falls

Grayson

Ellis

Hall

Dickens

TrinityReeves

Marion

Terrell

Lynn

La Salle

Jasper

Jones

Castro

Victoria

Kleberg

Briscoe

Clay

Matagorda

Brooks

Runnels

Carson

Liberty

Lee

Hale

Bexar

Garza

Montague

Upton

Hamilton

FisherDawson

Dimmit

Hutchinson

Llano

Presidio

Eastland

Sabine

Wharton

Rusk

Tarrant

Lavaca

Childress

Hidalgo

Kaufman

Moore

Menard

Edwards

SanPatricio

Terry

Crockett

Houston

Waller

Coke

Ward

Titus

Lampasas

Haskell

Martin

Atascosa

HemphillHartley

Young

BurlesonHardin

Gonzales

McMullen

Erath

Galveston

Hopkins

McLennan

MadisonMcCulloch

Donley

Kent

Real

Sutton

Midland

Hudspeth

Zavala

Harrison

Comanche

Mitchell

Navarro

Crane

Lubbock

Wise

Washington

Jeff Davis

El Paso

Gregg

Williamson

Lipscomb

Mason

Henderson

Hansford

Chambers

Hill

Potter

Jim Wells

DeltaStonewall

Ector

Cameron

Maverick

Collin

Baylor

Panola

Guadalupe

Bastrop

Austin

Andrews

Anderson

Blanco

DeWitt

Bandera

Bell

Aransas

Archer

Armstrong

Bee

Angelina

Bailey

Jefferson

Frio

Fannin

Goliad

Loving

Cass

FortBend

Bosque

Hockley

SanSaba

Kerr

Mills

Cooke

Wilbarger

Irion

Caldwell

JimHogg

Culberson

Upshur

Cherokee

Denton

Concho

Randall

Kimble

Knox

Polk

Hood

San Jacinto

Robertson

Wilson

Nolan

Cottle

Calhoun

Rockwall

LiveOak

Motley

Sherman Ochiltree

Comal

Total Estimated Population by County, Texas, 2017

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 Vintage Population Estimates

Legend

tl_2010_48_county10

POPESTIMATE2017

134 - 10,000

10,001 - 100,000

100,001 - 500,000

500,001 - 2,000,000

2,000,001 - 4,652,980

87%

Projected population aged 18-24 by race and ethnicity, Texas, 2010-2050

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

Total

Hispanic

NH White

NH Black

NH Asian

NH Other

Source: Texas Demographic Center 2018 Population Projections

Percent of the population enrolled in college for persons aged 18-24 years, 25-34 years, and the total population aged 15 years and older, 2010-2017

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Enrolled18-24

Enrolled25-34

Total

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2010 -2017 1 Year Samples

Interactive map showing education levels of Texans ages 25-34 is available on the www.60x30TX.com website

To access the map go to: https://www1.thecb.state.tx.us/map/attainment/

The Higher Education Enrollment Forecast is designed to inform institutional and statewide planning efforts

• To advise institutions what their enrollments are projected to be if they do not change their demographic and geographic drawing patterns

• To provide statewide baseline enrollment figures for universities, two-year public colleges, and independent institutions

• To plan for statewide and regional efforts, including THECB planning activities

The fall headcount enrollment forecast predicts growth in college and university populations for all sectors

70

Actual ActualActual Prelim.

Total Projections

2010 2015 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030

Public Universities 557,550 619,175 658,222 666,757 676,716 721,829 758,659

Public Two-Year Colleges 743,252

718,547 758,061 768,477 779,740 832,640 877,311

Independent Universities 122,894

125,440 126,241 127,438 127,913 130,063 131,819

Total 1,423,696 1,463,162 1,542,524 1,562,673 1,584,369 1,684,531 1,767,789

Forecasted increases in fall headcount participation indicate slowing growth over time

71

2010-2015 (actual)

2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030

Increase/ Decrease

PercentChange

IncreasePercent Change

IncreasePercent Change

IncreasePercentChange

Public Universities

61,625 11.1% 57,541 9.3% 45,113 6.7% 36,830 5.1%

Public Two-Year Colleges

-24,705 -3.3% 61,193 8.5% 52,899 6.8% 44,672 5.4%

Independent Universities

2,546 2.1% 2,473 2.0% 2,150 1.7% 1,756 1.4%

Total Increase 39,466 2.8% 121,207 8.3% 100,162 6.3% 83,258 4.9%

All regions show growth, but 90% of enrollment growth is predicted for four regions of the state

72

Regional Enrollment Totals Actual Actual Actual Prelim. Total Projections

(public Institutions only) 2010 2015 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030

Central Texas 232,570 238,630 246,420 249,200 251,663 264,426 273,847

Gulf Coast 273,046 287,340 308,190 313,764 319,723 352,051 381,614

High Plains 63,910 66,739 70,083 70,961 71,631 74,850 76,875

Metroplex 309,686 326,660 353,562 360,026 368,004 403,686 430,684

Northwest 19,260 17,308 18,638 18,922 19,055 19,568 20,018

South Texas 231,827 232,076 242,329 243,905 247,042 255,203 262,072

Southeast Texas 40,968 39,089 40,076 40,201 40,387 41,470 42,296

Upper East Texas 50,937 47,371 49,261 49,700 49,857 50,840 51,159

Upper Rio Grande 51,435 53,063 55,189 55,408 55,323 54,923 56,489

West Texas 27,163 29,446 32,535 33,147 33,771 37,450 40,917

Total 1,300,802 1,337,722 1,416,283 1,435,235 1,456,456 1,554,468 1,635,970

Public two-year colleges will continue to enroll the largest proportion of students

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Th

ou

sa

nd

s Universities Two-Year Colleges833K

722K

73

Key Takeaways

• Recent enrollments have remained high despite very low levels of unemployment

in Texas, bucking the trend in many states across the country

• Current enrollment projections predict steady increases in enrollment, but

unexpected economic changes may alter these predictions, as might a range of

other variables

• The population growth shows slowing growth for our younger aged population as

we near 2030, which is reflected in the forecast

• Growth is not consistent across regions of the state

74

75

Key success metrics show improvement, but national data and workforce analyses highlight need for continued effort

A larger percentage of students are successfully earning degrees and doing so more quickly

76

+12.0%

+15.3%

+18.7%

18.5 21.7

13.714.1

17.115.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2013 cohort 2014 cohort

3-Yr Outcomes, Texas Community College Students

Graduate Transfer Persist

49.3%51.5%

77

Three-year success rates continue to improve for first-time, full-time Texas public two-year college students

25,936

59,895

27,841

50,347

34,732

57,825

42,712

54,278

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

2-Year Eco-Disad 2-Year Not Eco-Disad 4-Year Eco-Disad 4-Year Not Eco-Disad

*Note: Only includes certificates, associate, and bachelor's degrees; "Two-Year" includes Texas public community and technical colleges; and "Four-Year" includes Texas public universities and health-related institutions.

#o

f C

om

ple

tio

ns

Became majority at four-

year schools in 2012

Became majority at two-

year schools in 2010

Completions by economically disadvantaged students have increased over the last 10 years and now make up the majority of completions.*

78

45 percent of completers in 2017 were 25 years or older

79

7,772

37,624

26,792

54,527

110,462

40,936

0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000

Com

ple

tions

Undergraduate Degrees Awarded, by Age FY 2017

<21 22-24 25-29 30-34 35-50 51+

Community and technical colleges are accelerating student progress through developmental education (DE)

14,053 15,144

11,605

9,360 7,568

17,78117,695

12,640

10,263

9,674

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018

Thousa

nds

Statewide State-Funded DE Contact Hours (In Thousands)

Dev. Ed English Dev. Ed Math

DE contact hours decreased by

nearly 2.4 million hours and nearly

$6M between 2016 and 2018

80

Successful and timely completion of the first college-level course (FCLC) by students not college ready has increased over past 5 years.

6% 6% 7%11%

16% 17%

24% 24%27%

29%

37%39%

19% 21% 22%24%

30%32%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Percent of students not college-ready who complete a FCLC in non-ready subject within one year, Statewide

Math Reading Writing

Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board 81

• In 2018, 72 percent of all public university

graduates had completed hours at a

community college

• 38 percent completed less than 30 hours

• 34 percent completed 30 hours or more

• Transfer students attempt and complete

more “excess hours” than native students,

leading to higher costs for students and

the state

82

Several statistics point to the importance of collaboration across higher education sectors

33.8%

37.8%

28.3%

Percentage of graduates by SCH taken at a two-year institution prior to baccalaureate graduation

30+SCH1 - 29SCH

83

• 60x30TX.com and revised accountability system

• Almanac (2019 edition coming soon)

• Regional 60x30TX Targets

The agency is supporting the strategic use of data to inform institution-and state-level policy and practice

Higher education enrollments in the Gulf Coast region show significant demographic changes since 2000

Source: THECB Regional Portal 84

Completions are growing in the Gulf Coast, but not fast enough

52,545 56,762 58,548 61,112

0

80,866

97,861

118,310

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Target 2025 Target 2030 Target

Source: THECB Regional Workbook 85

The Gulf Coast, like other urban areas, has higher attainment levels

Source: THECB Regional Workbook 86

Gulf Coast target for 2030: 65%

Submitted Regional Strategy: Educated Population

Collaborate with industry partners and the Greater Houston

Partnership through UpSkill Houston to create an Upskill plan for

the Gulf Coast region that will recruit/develop/retain the talent

pipeline – with credentials from level-one certificates to graduate

degrees – for the Gulf Coast workforce.


Submitted Regional Strategy: Completion

Modeled on the success of Houston GPS, Gulf Coast higher

education institutions will create a Regional Transfer Consortium

to strengthen transfer pathways from two-year colleges to four-

year universities so that more students are able to transfer

efficiently with minimal excess credits and time to degree.


Submitted Regional Strategy: High School-to-Higher Education

Gulf Coast higher education institutions will partner with Gulf

Coast K-12 partners to improve or expand recruitment strategies

and efforts at their schools by sharing data and best practices,

with a targeted focus on direct enrollment into college the first

semester after high school.


Questions?

90

Closing Slide

Regional/Local Student Success and Demographic DataBob HarveyExecutive President and Chief Executive OfficerGreater Houston Partnership

Closing Slide

Generation Z Characteristics and Implications for Higher EducationEd VenitManaging DirectorEAB

©2018 by EAB. All Rights Reserved. eab.com

Implications of Gen Z for the Future of Higher EducationHouston GPS

https://www.eab.com/


114


Ed VenitManaging Director

[email protected]

Follow me on Twitter

@HigherEdVenit



mailto:[email protected]


115

Ensure More Americans Get a ‘Return on Education’

Source: Overflow Solutions analysis of US Census data

http://overflow.solutions/interactive-visualizations/how-do-americans-differ-by-age-16/

Our Mission

American Educational Attainment by Age, 2016



116

Ensure More Americans Get a ‘Return on Education’

Source: Overflow Solutions analysis of US Census data

http://overflow.solutions/interactive-visualizations/how-do-americans-differ-by-age-16/

Our Mission

American Educational Attainment by Age, 2016



ROAD MAP117

1 Gen Z is Smaller

2 Gen Z is Value Driven and Risk Adverse

3 Gen Z Expects Systems to Work

4 Gen Z May Need More Help from You



118

College Capacity Increased in Response to the Millennial Boom

A Decade of Growth

2,5

82

2,6

75

2,7

74

2,9

68

3,0

39

3,0

04

2005 2010 2015

Total 4-Year Degree-Granting Colleges and Universities

422Additional schools 2005-2015



119

Gen Z High School Graduates Won’t Be Enough to Fulfill Growth Goals

Slowing Growth of High School Graduates

Source: EAB analysis of WICHE data.

Growth in High School Graduates 2001-2031

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031

Millions o

f H

S G

raduate

s

+1.6% growth

-0.1%growth

-0.6% growth

GROWTH(pre-2013)

STAGNATION(2014-2023)

DECLINE(2023-????)

Most senior leaders learned their roles during a period of enrollment growth and will have to adapt to the coming decade



120



121

Source: Grawe, Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education,

2018; EAB analysis.

Some Regions More at Risk Than Others

Annual Change in College-Going High School Graduates2018-2023

Annual Growth

+1.5%

+3.0%

+4.5%

0.0%

-1.5%

-3.0%

Higher

Lower



122

Growth Through 2023 Will Be Largely Found in Less Populated Areas


2018; EAB analysis.



Annual Growth

+1.5%

+3.0%

+4.5%

0.0%

-1.5%

-3.0%

Higher

Lower



123

Decline Felt Most Strongly in Urban Centers, Midwest, and Eastern US


2018; EAB analysis.



Annual Growth

+1.5%

+3.0%

+4.5%

0.0%

-1.5%

-3.0%

Higher

Lower



124

Majority of Nation Goes Into Enrollment Decline at the End of the 2020s


2018; EAB analysis.

Some Regions Hit Harder Than Others

Annual Change in College-Going High School Graduates 2018-2029

Annual Growth

+1.5%

+3.0%

+4.5%

0.0%

-1.5%

-3.0%

Higher

Lower



ROAD MAP125

1 Gen Z is Smaller






126

0

50

100

Jan-04 Jan-08 Jan-12 Jan-16

0

50

100

Jan-04 Jan-08 Jan-12 Jan-16

Public Skepticism Rising as Students Pay More but Don’t Get Better Returns

A Growing Crisis of Confidence

Source: Google Trends search “Is college worth it”; Federal Reserve Bank of NY:

https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/college-labor-market/college-labor-market_underemployment_rates.html#; https://ticas.org/sites/default/files/pub_files/classof2014.pdf; EAB interviews and analysis;.

42%46%

2004 2014

Underemployment for Recent

Grads (22-27)

$18,550

$28,950

2004 2014

Average Student

Debt at Graduation

“Is College Worth It?”Google Trends 2004-2016


https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/college-labor-market/college-labor-market_underemployment_rates.html


127

Source: “How This Company Created the First Software Development Apprenticeship Program Approved by the Department of

Labor,” https://www.inc.com/jeff-haden/how-this-company-created-first-software-development-apprenticeship-program-approved-by-department-of-labor.html; “2018 Coding Bootcamp Market Size Study,” https://www.coursereport.com/reports/2018-coding-bootcamp-market-size-research.

A Return to Apprenticeships?

Bootcamp Market Maturing

Reduced Risk for Student and Employer

Emergence of an Apprenticeship Model

• Provides software development engagements for clients

• Work completed by paid apprentices with no coding experience

• 24-week program alternates skills training with ~1000 hours of project work

• Majority of apprentices women and underrepresented minorities

High-Profile Closures

Slow Growth

Business Model Under Pressure

Guaranteed job offer at the end

New hire has experience in their specific tech stack

For Students

For Employers

Most bootcamps now rely on ISA funding for revenue

Dev Bootcamp

Iron Yard

No new providers from 2017-2018 vs. 62 from 2013 to 2016


https://www.inc.com/jeff-haden/how-this-company-created-first-software-development-apprenticeship-program-approved-by-department-of-labor.html

https://www.coursereport.com/reports/2018-coding-bootcamp-market-size-research


128

Affordability Overwhelmingly the Top Reason for Choosing Two-Year School

Gen Z Looking for Value

56%

9% 8%5% 4%

2% 2%

14%

It was more

affordable

I wanted to improve

my academic record

I didn't get into the

school I wanted

I wanted to be close

to home

I was advised by my

family/friends

It had the program I

wanted

I was advised by my

HS counselor

Other

Regardless of income, “affordability” was the top reason for starting at a 2-year institution

58%Under $30K

(N = 170)

68%$30K to $60K

(N = 173)

59%$60K to $120K

(N = 234)

51%$120K to $250K

(N = 94)

42%Over $250K

(N = 24)

What was the primary reason you attended a community college?



129

Results of EAB Survey of Gen Z College-Going Students

“Pragmatist” Segment Opting for Two-Year Start

Traditional 2-Year Students

Value-Driven Pragmatists

Accepted to 4-yr, but attend 2-yr

Traditional 4-Year Students

49% White 60% White 56% White

25% Hispanic 25% Hispanic 13% Hispanic

14% African American 11% African American 13% African American

36% First Generation 28% First Generation 24% First Generation

31% Income Under $30K1 17% Income Under $30K 22% Income Under $30K1

39% Attend Full-Time 85% Attend Full-Time 73% Attend Full-Time

68% Take Dev Courses 43% Take Dev Courses 40% Take Dev Courses

25% Work Full Time 18% Work Full Time 20% Work Full Time

51% Work Part Time 58% Work Part Time 45% Work Part Time



130

Gen Zs Want Bang for Their Buck, not Just a Low Price

Are You Selling on Price or on Opportunity?



131

Gen Zs Want Bang for Their Buck, not Just a Low Price

Are You Selling on Price or on Opportunity?



ROAD MAP132

1 Gen Z is Smaller






133

Networks of Schools Sharing Credit Pathways, Serving Community Needs

The Emerging Higher Education “Ecosystem”

Transfer

TwoYear

FourYear

HighSchool

Employers

Local Ecosystem



134

Source: Shapiro D, et al., “Completing College: A National View of Student Attainment Rates – Fall 2010 Cohort (Signature Report No.

12)”; https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2015/06/08/two-year-transfers-are-finding-not-all-their-credits-go-them

EAB interviews and analysis.

Deviation and Credit Accumulation Resulting from a Broken Transfer System

The Ecosystem Has a Long Way to Go

Earning Excess Credits

Failing to Transfer Earning Nontransferable Credits

Dropping Out

61%of students do not obtain an associate degree within 6 years of enrollment

69% of the students who intended to transfer do not do so successfully

13 credits Average number of excess credits earned by community college students

1

2

3

4

12 credits Average number of non-transferable credits earned by community college students

Important to Understand the Root Cause of Excess Credits

Students’ misunderstanding the requirements for their programs

Colleges’ inadequate advising and enrollment management systems

Misalignment between community colleges and the four-year system


https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2015/06/08/two-year-transfers-are-finding-not-all-their-credits-go-them


135

Strong Pathways Deliver Value to Students, Schools, and Communities

Source: Belfield C, et al., “Is It Really Cheaper to Start at a Community College? The

Consequences of Inefficient Transfer for Community College Students Seeking Bachelor’s Degrees.” https://ccrc.tc.columbia.edu/publications/really-cheaper-start-at-community-college-consequences-inefficient-transfer.html; EAB interviews and analysis.

A Tale of Two States

CCRC Report: “Is It Really Cheaper to Start at a Community College?” (2017)

Alpha System

• 10+ community colleges

• Moderately strong articulation

• Major-specific pathways

Omega System

• 30+ community colleges

• Weak articulation

• No pathways

Odds of Cost Savings

Average Savings

57.3%

36.1%

$1,230

-$2,400


https://ccrc.tc.columbia.edu/publications/really-cheaper-start-at-community-college-consequences-inefficient-transfer.html


136Houston Leading the Way



ROAD MAP137

1 Gen Z is Smaller






138

Deploying Staff to Operate at ‘Top of License’ Maximizes Value, Efficiency

Could Reorganizing Staff Improve ROI?

$60K $60K $60K $120K$60K

Expert CounselorProfessional Advisors

300:1 caseloadsFour student touchpoints per year

Per student touchpoint$60

$60K $60K $60K$60K

350:1 caseloadsFour student touchpoints per year

High-Risk Specialist

100:1 caseload12 student touchpoints per year

$120K

Per student touchpoint$53



139

A More Efficient Way to Organize Staff and Provide Better Support

Source: EAB interviews and analysis.

Population Health Management

$120,000per year

$60,000per year

$0-$10per hour

Counselors

Professional Advisors

Facultyand Staff

Peer Advisors

Automated Messaging

LOW RISK Scalable Advisingto extend support by automating and personalizing guidance

HIGH RISKHigh-Touch Coordinated Care supported by collaboration between different support units

MODERATE RISK Proactive Monitoringto find and focus support efforts on hidden early problems



140


Ed VenitManaging Director

[email protected]

Follow me on Twitter

@HigherEdVenit



mailto:[email protected]

Washington DC Richmond Birmingham Minneapolis

202-747-1000 eab.com



Closing Slide

Breakout Session: 1:00 pm – 2:00 pm

Breakout Session: 2:00 pm – 3:00 pm

Dessert and Dialogue

(Photo)Tom Sugar Vice President for Partnerships, EAB

Closing Slide

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