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The Future of Mobility - LEVEL · Sources: Department for Transport, ONS, Forbes, Fleet News,...

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#Mobility2030 [ ] Mobility 2030 The Future of Mobility Christoph Domke Director, KPMG Mobility 2030 Intelligent Mobility Conference 2017 November 2 nd 2017, Derby, UK
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Page 1: The Future of Mobility - LEVEL · Sources: Department for Transport, ONS, Forbes, Fleet News, Fortune, KPMG UK Mobility 2030 Analysis, Sky News, KPMG Global Automotive Executive Survey

#Mobility2030[ ]Mobility 2030

The Future of Mobility

Christoph Domke

Director, KPMG Mobility 2030

Intelligent Mobility Conference 2017November 2nd 2017, Derby, UK

Page 2: The Future of Mobility - LEVEL · Sources: Department for Transport, ONS, Forbes, Fleet News, Fortune, KPMG UK Mobility 2030 Analysis, Sky News, KPMG Global Automotive Executive Survey

#Mobility2030[ ]Mobility 2030

Alternative Powertrains

Three main disruptive forces will fundamentally transform how people and things move in the future

Mobility as a Service

Connected & Autonomous

Vehicles

Changing consumer and

societal demands

Mobility Value Chain

Collaboration in the future Mobility

Ecosystem

• Moving people

• Moving goods

The Future of Mobility

Page 3: The Future of Mobility - LEVEL · Sources: Department for Transport, ONS, Forbes, Fleet News, Fortune, KPMG UK Mobility 2030 Analysis, Sky News, KPMG Global Automotive Executive Survey

#Mobility2030[ ]Mobility 2030

‘A day in the life of’ video

Page 4: The Future of Mobility - LEVEL · Sources: Department for Transport, ONS, Forbes, Fleet News, Fortune, KPMG UK Mobility 2030 Analysis, Sky News, KPMG Global Automotive Executive Survey

#Mobility2030[ ]Mobility 2030

A key driver is consumers changing their view of mobility

Sources: Department for Transport, ONS, Forbes, Fleet News, Fortune, KPMG UK Mobility 2030 Analysis, Sky News, KPMG Global Automotive Executive Survey 2017

Success of new mobility services are demonstrating consumers’ willingness to adopt

Moving my stuffMoving me

The one user – one car model is inefficient for mobility…

95%Time that most cars

sit idle each day

75%UK households that

own a car

101hrsTime spent by Londoners in

traffic, per year

£31bnCost of traffic delays to UK

motorists in 2016

... and ownership costs impact daily lives

Car ownership cost as % household costs

10%-20% c.60% Nearly 60% of 18-24 consumers in

the UK believe that car owners today will not want to own a car in

2025

33% The likelihood that a 17-20 year old will have a drivers

licence in 2015

Driving Licence

The Future of Mobility

Page 5: The Future of Mobility - LEVEL · Sources: Department for Transport, ONS, Forbes, Fleet News, Fortune, KPMG UK Mobility 2030 Analysis, Sky News, KPMG Global Automotive Executive Survey

© 2017 KPMG LLP, a UK limited liability partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.

#Mobility2030[ ]Mobility 2030

Alternative

Powertrains

Page 6: The Future of Mobility - LEVEL · Sources: Department for Transport, ONS, Forbes, Fleet News, Fortune, KPMG UK Mobility 2030 Analysis, Sky News, KPMG Global Automotive Executive Survey

#Mobility2030[ ]Mobility 2030

Electric adoption in passenger cars will grow quickly through from the 2020s, impacting charging infrastructure needs

2020 2030 20402017

Forecast UK EV growth and expected charging infrastructure

Note: (a) Diagrams not drawn to scale. (b) Assumes a mix of public slow and rapid charging points for every EV; excludes home chargers Source(s): (1) KPMG Mobility 2030 analysis (2) IEA Global EV Outlook 2017, (3) EU Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Directive 2014 (4) ZapMap September 2017

13k80k

0.5m

1.7m

Anticipated charging infrastructure requirements(2,3)

(1 chargepoint required for every 10-15 EVs)

Potential disruptive impact of new charging tech (e.g inductive)

UK Passenger EV forecast (# cars, % of parc)

1m, 2%

5m, 14%

16m, 43%

0.1m, 0.2%

The Future of Mobility: Alternative powertrains

Page 7: The Future of Mobility - LEVEL · Sources: Department for Transport, ONS, Forbes, Fleet News, Fortune, KPMG UK Mobility 2030 Analysis, Sky News, KPMG Global Automotive Executive Survey

#Mobility2030[ ]Mobility 2030

This journey will be complex and participants will need to ‘converge’ at multiple points…

Government/policy

Enough charging infra in right locations

Energy capacity constraints removed

Charging behaviours and Charging locations optimised

16 million EVsCharging infrastructure

Customer

OEMs

Retailers

Energy infrastructure

Smart grids & DSO transition

Technical standards defined

‘Smart’ (off peak) charging

Generation constraint addressed, if any

Hub charging and Intelligent charge point locating

Smart home solutions & energy as a service

Smart charging and flexible platforms

Smart metering

ToU tariffs & retail DSR

Cost parity

EV take-up increases

Range anxiety overcome

Govt campaigning, specification & incentivisation

Govt relaxation of regulatory constraints and free market solution

Government legislation

Enhanced charging and battery tech

G2V ‘switch’ embedded

Adequate nationwide public charging

infrastructure

V2G technology embedded

Societal change

Seamless customer experience

Storage and flexible tools embedded

Customer engaged

Increased public charging points

2

1 4

4

Key 2040 outcomes

3Infrastructure and network constraints managed

1

Dependency / activity

Convergence pointKey:

Source(s): KPMG Mobility 2030 analysis

The Future of Mobility: Alternative powertrains

Page 8: The Future of Mobility - LEVEL · Sources: Department for Transport, ONS, Forbes, Fleet News, Fortune, KPMG UK Mobility 2030 Analysis, Sky News, KPMG Global Automotive Executive Survey

#Mobility2030[ ]Mobility 2030

Global HGV alternative powertrain adoption –2015-2030(1)

Electric adoption in HGVs, will be limited as battery size impacts load, while rapid charging of large batteries will be difficult

Natural gas uptake will increase, driven by improvements in infrastructure and

the cost per mile saving vs. diesel

Diesel will continue to make up the largest proportion of HGV and MCV

sales, supplemented by hybrids

Source(s): (1) KPMG Mobility 2030 analysis based on KGP sales forecast data (compiled September 2017)

EV uptake will be strong in LCVs whilst there is no consensus on the winning alternative powertrain in HCVs

Note: UK natural gas will be later and slower, due to

infrastructure limitations

The Future of Mobility: Alternative powertrains

UK alternative powertrain adoption in LCVs – 2014-2040(1)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2014 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Alternative powertrain expected to be 66% of sales in

2030

UK Government target for 100% of

LCV sales to be alternative powertrain

by 2040(2)

TCO parity for electric

LCVs

Adoption prior to TCO parity driven

by policy enforcement and

early adopters

Page 9: The Future of Mobility - LEVEL · Sources: Department for Transport, ONS, Forbes, Fleet News, Fortune, KPMG UK Mobility 2030 Analysis, Sky News, KPMG Global Automotive Executive Survey

#Mobility2030[ ]Mobility 2030

Connected and

Autonomous

Vehicles

Page 10: The Future of Mobility - LEVEL · Sources: Department for Transport, ONS, Forbes, Fleet News, Fortune, KPMG UK Mobility 2030 Analysis, Sky News, KPMG Global Automotive Executive Survey

#Mobility2030[ ]Mobility 2030

FMS / Open Architecture Software Platform

Digital freight brokerage Video safety solution

Prognostics Electronic logging device (ELD) mandate

Mobile trucking apps

– Open, customisable platform; customers choose services from marketplace

– Easy integration of other software

– Web platform addressing underutilised capacity, with instant load matching, live tracking etc.

– Reduces empty miles by 8-10%

– Integrating Video Event Recorders (VER) with telematics minimises impact of accidents and errors

– Fraud and theft protection etc.

– Standardisation encourages fleets to revisit value placed on telematics

– In 2020s, predictive analytics will replace factory-fit telematics

– Adoption expected due to fleet management system penetration

– In the US, driven by Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration rules

– Mainly driver-centric to encourage new drivers to market

– Wider integration of freight mobility, driver utility, fleet optimisation apps

Connectivity is already a key part of the commercial vehicle market and will continue to be a major growth area to 2030

The Future of Mobility: Connected and Autonomous Vehicles

Page 11: The Future of Mobility - LEVEL · Sources: Department for Transport, ONS, Forbes, Fleet News, Fortune, KPMG UK Mobility 2030 Analysis, Sky News, KPMG Global Automotive Executive Survey

#Mobility2030[ ]Mobility 2030

The driver cost-benefit and safety considerations will mean AV adoption in LCVs outpaces passenger cars

Notes: (a) Vehicle sales include cars and light commercial vehiclesSource(s): (1) KPMG UK Mobility 2030 Scenario Analysis – Stretch case

35%

Sh

are

of

sale

s (%

)

UK AV share of LCV sales (vs. passenger car share)(1)

2015 2020 2025 2030

– Driver cost-benefit resonates with fleet TCO focus (vs. irrational consumer behaviour)

– ‘Lumpy’ fleet procurement– Safety considerations a key

metric for businesses– Policy may drive adoption if

safety benefit proven– Forecast driver shortages– Less aesthetical concern

– Potential for union resistance

The Future of Mobility: Connected and Autonomous Vehicles

Given platooning trials, OEM investment and simpler highways, AV adoption in HGVs will also outpace passenger cars

Page 12: The Future of Mobility - LEVEL · Sources: Department for Transport, ONS, Forbes, Fleet News, Fortune, KPMG UK Mobility 2030 Analysis, Sky News, KPMG Global Automotive Executive Survey

#Mobility2030[ ]Mobility 2030

‘Packstations’ / ‘Drop Boxes’

Source(s): KPMG Mobility 2030 analysis of public announcement

Urban Consolidation

Hubs

Drones

Self driving delivery robovansand larger AV containers with

AV pods, to deliver packages in urban areas

Direct to Boot delivery by giving one time access for

carriers to ‘smart boot’

Delivery of light weight packages to customer via

GPS-enabled dronesDirect to Boot

Digitally enabled access to lockers at specified

locations for deliveries to customers or tradesman to

pick up kit

Autonomous Delivery Vehicles

Exam

ples

Multi-modal

For example, the use of an EV van or train as a micro

moving warehouse alongside delivery drones

New technologies will lead to a greater number of new modes of ‘Moving Goods’, including drones and robovans for delivery

The Future of Mobility: Connected and Autonomous Vehicles

Page 13: The Future of Mobility - LEVEL · Sources: Department for Transport, ONS, Forbes, Fleet News, Fortune, KPMG UK Mobility 2030 Analysis, Sky News, KPMG Global Automotive Executive Survey

© 2017 KPMG LLP, a UK limited liability partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.

#Mobility2030[ ]Mobility 2030

Mobility as

a Service

Page 14: The Future of Mobility - LEVEL · Sources: Department for Transport, ONS, Forbes, Fleet News, Fortune, KPMG UK Mobility 2030 Analysis, Sky News, KPMG Global Automotive Executive Survey

#Mobility2030[ ]Mobility 2030

Agree

Neutral

Disagree17%8%

35%

63%

82%

44%

25%

58%

36%

25%

9%

22%

59%

34% 29%

13% 9%

33%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

18-24 25-30 31-40 41-50 51-65 >65

22%

20%

58%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

GlobalExecutives

58% of

executives believe that more than half of all car owners today will not want to own a car in 2025

17%8%

35%

63%

82%

44%

25%

58%

36%

25%

9%

22%

59%

34% 29%

13% 9%

33%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

18-24 25-30 31-40 41-50 51-65 >65

32-38 39-53 45-54 55-64 65-79 >79

Consumer age band - 2016

Forecast age band in 2030:

The sharing economy will have penetrated the mobility sector, will 50% of current UK car owners not owning a vehicle by 2030

59% of 18-

24 consumers believe that more

than half of all car owners today

will not want to own a car in 2025

58% of

executives believe that more than half of all car owners today will not want to own a car in 2025

Source: KPMG Global Automotive Executive Survey 2017

Agree

Neutral

Disagree22%

20%

58%

GlobalExecutives

Younger consumers are much more likely to agree that personal vehicle ownership will decline

32-38 39-53 45-54 55-64 65-79 >79

Consumer age band - 2016

Forecast age band in 2030:

The Future of Mobility: Mobility as a Service

Page 15: The Future of Mobility - LEVEL · Sources: Department for Transport, ONS, Forbes, Fleet News, Fortune, KPMG UK Mobility 2030 Analysis, Sky News, KPMG Global Automotive Executive Survey

#Mobility2030[ ]Mobility 2030

The cost of MaaS provision will be lower than private ownership (on a cost per mile basis), encouraging take-up

Sources: Department for Transport, Transport for London, KPMG UK Mobility 2030 Scenario Analysis – Stretch case

Private Car

National & Metropolitan Rail

Ride-sharing services

Electrified AV Mobility Services 2030

Taxi

c.£5.00

Cost per mile – UK modes

Size indicates relative number of miles travelled per capita per year

£0.20-£0.40

MaaS provision could be up to 40% cheaper than private ownership

Local/National bus

The Future of Mobility: Mobility as a Service

Page 16: The Future of Mobility - LEVEL · Sources: Department for Transport, ONS, Forbes, Fleet News, Fortune, KPMG UK Mobility 2030 Analysis, Sky News, KPMG Global Automotive Executive Survey

#Mobility2030[ ]Mobility 2030

Selected examples

– App-based on-demand shipping, connecting carriers and customers

– The carrier collects, packages and ships at the lowest possible cost

– B2B and B2C delivery within the hour, using retail outlets as mini-depots

– Proprietary forecasting and dispatch tech to match couriers to demand

– Social delivery model that goes even further as a P2P solution

– Matches deliveries with people going that way, marketplace sets pricing

– Crowd-sourcing, shared platform, used to place delivery contracts for corporate and private commercial vehicle owners to fulfil

Efficient transport logistics

Optimised routes, less unused

capacity and pooled transport volumes

Addressing peak requirements

Sharing concepts particularly valuable at peak times given existing congestion

Service focused logistics

“Pay per minute” or “book guaranteed slot” propositions

aligned with service focused carrier needs

Source(s): KPMG Mobility 2030 analysis of public announcements

Sharing Economy

Customer

Service provider

Platform

Retailer etc.

Sharing economy in last mile delivery

Incumbents will also look to leverage the sharing economy for solutions in the complex and congested last mile delivery

The Future of Mobility: Mobility as a Service

Page 17: The Future of Mobility - LEVEL · Sources: Department for Transport, ONS, Forbes, Fleet News, Fortune, KPMG UK Mobility 2030 Analysis, Sky News, KPMG Global Automotive Executive Survey

#Mobility2030[ ]Mobility 2030

Final thoughts

Page 18: The Future of Mobility - LEVEL · Sources: Department for Transport, ONS, Forbes, Fleet News, Fortune, KPMG UK Mobility 2030 Analysis, Sky News, KPMG Global Automotive Executive Survey

#Mobility2030[ ]Mobility 2030

9%20%

35%54%

100%

2%, 1m 6%, 2m 14%, 5m25%, 9m

43%, 16m

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

EV sales as a % of sales

EV parc as a % of parc

0.1%5%

15%

25% 30%

1%, 0m 1%, 1m4%, 1m

9%, 3m15%, 5m

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

MaaS as a % of sales

MaaS as a % of parc

9%24%

55%91%

1%, 0m 6%, 2m20%, 7m

42%, 15m

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AV MaaS as a % of sales

AV MaaS as a % of parc

Strong growth is expected in passenger cars across EV, AV and MaaS

Note: (a) AV returns to human control if the system cannot function correctly; (b) No driver interaction needed and the car will stop itself if the system fails

EV penetration (2017-2040)

MaaSpenetration (2017-2040)

AVpenetration(2017-2040)

Declining battery costs reduce EV TCOEV

EV TCO parity with ICE reached

in early 2020s

MaaS

AV

Pro

ject

ed

road

map

L3(a)

Up to 50% of current UK car owners may no longer own a car

L4(b) L5

Uptake of AVSource: KPMG analysis of publically available information and SME local market insight

UK and France - end sales of petrol/ diesel vehicles

UK Estimates –Passenger Vehicles

The Future of Mobility

Page 19: The Future of Mobility - LEVEL · Sources: Department for Transport, ONS, Forbes, Fleet News, Fortune, KPMG UK Mobility 2030 Analysis, Sky News, KPMG Global Automotive Executive Survey

#Mobility2030[ ]Mobility 2030

Adoption of alternative powertrains and AV in commercial vehicles will depend upon vehicle class and use case

Gross vehicle weight (GVW)

2030 preferred powertrain

2030 AV primary use cases

LCV MCV HCV

<3.5t

Electric (BEV and PHEV)

3.5-16t

Diesel; limited EV and alternative fuels uptake

>16t

Diesel; no alternative fuels consensus

2030 MaaSuse cases

Last-mile and urban deliveries

Mix of LCV and HCVBulk freight (e.g. platooning

on motorways)

Sharing economy delivery

Mix of LCV and HCV Digital freight brokerage

The Future of Mobility

Page 20: The Future of Mobility - LEVEL · Sources: Department for Transport, ONS, Forbes, Fleet News, Fortune, KPMG UK Mobility 2030 Analysis, Sky News, KPMG Global Automotive Executive Survey

#Mobility2030[ ]Mobility 2030

Three key implications to reflect on…

Explosion in value and investment activity (across all parts of the

value chain)

New business model concepts are emerging…

…frequently requiring new collaboration and partnerships

1 2 3

£

The Future of Mobility

Page 21: The Future of Mobility - LEVEL · Sources: Department for Transport, ONS, Forbes, Fleet News, Fortune, KPMG UK Mobility 2030 Analysis, Sky News, KPMG Global Automotive Executive Survey

#Mobility2030[ ]Mobility 2030

Mobility Ecosystem 2030

Network

KPMG’s Mobility Ecosystem 2030 network is already bringing together participants across sectors and value chains

• Collaboration between KPMG and Ford to convene a collaborative network

• Executive-level attendees from all sectors impacted by mobility trends

• Energy and Moving Goods ecosystems were the focus of the last October 2017 event

• Strong emphasis on discussion and insight sharing, new business models, and collaborative partnerships

The Future of Mobility

Proposed core themes for the April 2018 event

Multi-Modal Transport Financial Services

We will continue to convene up to 100 top executives from industry leading organisations across the ecosystem, who all have a stake in the architecture and implications of Mobility 2030

We will introduce themes for the fourth event in 2018

Data and Cyber Security Focus on Start-ups

Page 22: The Future of Mobility - LEVEL · Sources: Department for Transport, ONS, Forbes, Fleet News, Fortune, KPMG UK Mobility 2030 Analysis, Sky News, KPMG Global Automotive Executive Survey

#Mobility2030[ ]Mobility 2030

Thank you

Key contact in relation to this document

Christoph DomkeDirector, Mobility2030, KPMG Global Strategy Group, +44(0)[email protected]

© 2017 KPMG LLP, a UK limited liability partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.

The information contained herein is of a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Although we endeavour to provide accurate and timely information, there can be no guarantee that such information is accurate as of the date it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in the future. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation.


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