The Future of Technology

2003 IEEE Fellows Technology Survey

Prepared for IEEE Spectrum

By The Response Center

December 2002

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Table of contentsPage

Background and Objectives 3

Methodology 4

Notes on Analysis 5

Study Findings 6

Technology-Needy Social Issues 7

Tech Industry Recovery? 8

Open Source Computing 9

How Will We Access Information? 10

Broadband Access & Applications 11

Moore’s Law 13

Billion-Transistor Chips? 14

The Energy Industry 15

Future Energy Sources 17

Alternative Automotive Fuels 18

Air and Rail Transportation 21

Tomorrow’s Engineers 22

Respondent profile 24

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Background and Objectives IEEE’s flagship publication, IEEE Spectrum, will focus on “the future of

technology” in its January 2003 issue. To obtain a better understanding of technology issues, the magazine’s editorial staff wants to obtain views from influential people in the electrical and electronics engineering community. To this end, the magazine commissioned The Response Center, an independent market research company, to conduct a research project among IEEE members nominated by their peers for “Fellows” status.

Primary objectives of the study include: To measure Fellows’ opinions on hot topics in science and technology, such as computers, power and energy

and transportation.

To provide Fellows with a forum for expressing their views on the future of technology by allowing them the opportunity to elaborate on their opinions to questions asked.

To produce a reference guide for Spectrum writers to access while authoring articles for the January ‘03 issue.

Study findings gleaned from this research are summarized in the following charts.

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Methodology The Response Center conducted a Web-based research study among

IEEE Fellows.Data collection took place over a period beginning November 5, 2002 and ending on December 2, 2002.

The questionnaire was developed by IEEE, in conjunction with The Response Center. It is estimated that the survey averaged 15 to 20 minutes to complete.

An email address list of approximately 1,200 Fellows was provided by IEEE. Fellows were pre-notified of the study via an alert email from IEEE. Following, The Response Center sent out email invitations and hosted the study’s website. Midway through data collection, reminder emails were sent to all who failed to respond to the initial invitation.

A total of 565 Fellows responded to the survey, resulting in a response rate of 48%.

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Notes on the Report All numbers reported are percentages unless otherwise noted. These

percentages have been rounded to the nearest whole number, thus percentages may not add to 100%.

Given the self-administered methodology employed, all results reported represent response-based data. That is, respondents who answer “don’t know” or who choose not to answer a specific question have been “based out” or excluded from reported results for that particular question. Thus, the actual number answering each question varies to some degree.

Where 10-point scales were used (ratings from 1-10), the higher number represents the more strongly positive evaluation. Top-3 box scores (ratings 8-10) indicate highly positive perceptions while bottom-3 box scores are indicative of highly negative perceptions.

Question numbers reflect the final version of the “Future of Technology” questionnaire.

Study Findings

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Technology-Needy Social Issues Question: Below is a list of broad social issues. Please indicate the

amount of technological resources you feel will be needed in the next five years to address each issue. (10= need more technological resources; 1= need less technological resources)

*Q1: Base = “total” (422)

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Tech Industry Recovery? Question: Thinking about the current difficulties being experienced by

the following industries, please indicate which industry you think will be most likely to recover first. (1= most likely to recover; 5= least likely to recover)

Most Likely to Recover First %* Least Likely to Recover First %**

Energy 26 Transportation 35

Telecommunications 22 Telecommunications 27

Semiconductor 21 Energy 19

Computer 18 Semiconductor 18

Transportation 11 Computer 6

Q2: Base = “total” (418)* Percentage ranked 1st ** Percentage ranked 5th or 6th

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Open Source Computing Question: How important do you feel open source computing (Linux,

for example) is for the development of new computer products and technology? (10=extremely important; 1=not important at all)

*Q3: Base = “total” (425)

Open Source Computing

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How Will We Access Information? Question: In your opinion, what will be the most common way people

access information in 10 years? (1= most common way; 6= least common way)

Most Common Way toAccess Information

%* Least Common Way toAccess Information

%**

Cell Phones 24 Tablets 54

Laptops 21 Television 47

Desktops 18 Desktops 36

Television 17 PDAs 25

PDAs 16 Cell phones 23

Tablets 7 Laptops 12

Q4: Base = “total” (418)* Percentage ranked 1st ** Percentage ranked 5th or 6th

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Broadband Access Around the World

*Q5: Base = “total” (374)

30% Broadband Access?

Question: Traditionally, a product is considered successful when it has reached 30% market penetration. In most areas, broadband access is below 30%. When do you think that 30% broadband access will be achieved in each of the following regions?

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Broadband Applications Question: Please indicate how strongly you feel each of the following

computer applications will increase demand for broadband in the coming years. (10= strongly increase demand; 1= not strongly increase demand)

*Q6: Base = “total” (415)

Increase broadband demand?

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Moore’s Law Question: How long do you think Moore’s Law (doubling integrated

circuit transistor density every 18 months) will continue to hold true?

*Q7: Base = “total” (390)

Moore’s Law

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Billion-Transistor Chips? Question: Currently, there are integrated circuits with 250 million

transistors running. Some people in the semiconductor industry are forecasting that by the end of the decade there will be integrated circuits with one billion transistors running. How useful would such capacity be in each of the following industries?

*Q8: Base = “total” (400)

Usefulness of integrated circuits with one billion transistors running?

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Energy Deregulation vs. Innovation Question: How much do you agree with this statement? (10= strongly

agree; 1= strongly disagree)

“Energy deregulation in the US will advance energy technology development.”

*Q9: Base = “total” (400)

Statement: “Energy deregulation in the US will advance energy technology development.”

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Energy Production and Distribution

*Q10: Base = “total” (393)

Energy deregulation

More efficient trading facilities

Increased storage capacity

Better transmission/distribution

systems

Alternative sources

Important to successful electric energy production and distribution?

Question: How important is each of the following to successful electric energy production and distribution? (10= very important; 1= not at all important)

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Future Energy Sources Question: How promising is each of the following technologies with

respect to energy production over the next 10 years? (10= very promising; 1= not at all promising)

*Q11: Base = “total” (390)

Promising in terms of energy production?

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Alternative Automotive Fuels Question: How important is the development of fuels, other than

gasoline, that can power automobiles and mass-transit vehicles? (10= very important; 1= not at all important)

*Q12: Base = “total” (421)

Fuel Development

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Alternative Automotive Fuels, cont’d Question: Which of the following alternative fuels that can be used to

power automobiles and mass-market vehicles do you feel is most promising? (4= most promising; 1= least promising)

Most Promising to PowerVehicles

% Least Promising to PowerVehicles

%

Hybrid electric 59 Solar energy 80

Hydrogen fuel cells 32 Electric 9

Electric 6 Hydrogen fuel cells 6

Solar energy 5 Hybrid electric 4

Q13: Base = “total” (420)

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Barriers to Alternative Automotive Fuels

Question: How much of a barrier is each of the following to the development of [alternative automotive fuels]? (10= major barrier; 1= not a barrier at all)

*Q14: Base = “total” (372)

Barrier to the development of various alternative fuel sources?

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Air and Rail Transportation

*Q15: Base = “total” (434)

Statement: “Planes, as a form of mass transit, cannot be developed and maintained without significant

government support

Statement: “Trains and light rail, as a form of mass transit, cannot be developed

and maintained without significant government support

Question: How much do you agree with the following statements? (10= strongly agree; 1= strongly disagree)

“Planes, as a form of mass transit, cannot be developed and maintained without significant government support.”

“Trains and light rail, as a form of mass transit, cannot be developed and maintained without significant government support.”

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Educating Tomorrow’s Engineers Question: How well do you feel university engineering departments are

doing in terms of educating today’s engineering students? (10= excellent job; 1= poor job)

*Q16: Base = “total” (434)

University Engineering Departments

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Engineering Salaries

*Q17: Base = “total” (436)

Statement: “High-caliber students are no longer choosing engineering as a profession because they are able to make more money in other professions.”

Question: How much do you agree with this statement? 10= strongly agree; 1= strongly disagree.

“High-caliber students are no longer choosing engineering as a profession because they are able to make more money in other professions.”

Respondent Profile

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Area of Expertise and Employment

Area of professional expertise(Q19) % Area of Employment (Q20) %

Telecommunications 29 Education 50

Semiconductors 17 Private industry 23

Computers 15 Public/Government/Non-profit 10

Power and energy 13 Self-employed 4

Transportation 1 Retired/Unemployed 1

Other 24 Other 3

Q19; Q20: Base = “total” (440)

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Entrepreneurial Status

Q21: Base = “total” (439)