Hermann E. Ott Hermann E. Ott
Open Meeting, Open Meeting,
Rio, Oct. 6 - 8, 2001Rio, Oct. 6 - 8, 2001
The Future of the Climate Regime in the Aftermath of the
Bonn Agreement
The Future of the Climate Regime in the Aftermath of the
Bonn Agreement
Presentation at the Open Meeting
of the Global Environmental Change Community
Rio de Janeiro, 6 - 8 October 2001
by
Dr. Hermann E. OttDirector, Climate Policy Division
Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy
Presentation at the Open Meeting
of the Global Environmental Change Community
Rio de Janeiro, 6 - 8 October 2001
by
Dr. Hermann E. OttDirector, Climate Policy Division
Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy
Hermann E. Ott Hermann E. Ott
Open Meeting, Open Meeting,
Rio, Oct. 6 - 8, 2001Rio, Oct. 6 - 8, 2001
Before talking about the future we have to ask:
Before talking about the future we have to ask:
What is the climate regime and is it working?
Sorry, but
this is not an academic question!
What is the climate regime and is it working?
Sorry, but
this is not an academic question!
Hermann E. Ott Hermann E. Ott
Open Meeting, Open Meeting,
Rio, Oct. 6 - 8, 2001Rio, Oct. 6 - 8, 2001
What have we got?What have we got?
Hermann E. Ott Hermann E. Ott
Open Meeting, Open Meeting,
Rio, Oct. 6 - 8, 2001Rio, Oct. 6 - 8, 2001
Institutionally?Institutionally?• step-by-step approach
• umbrella convention – UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change)
• protocol with quantified targets – Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC
• universal regime:• FCCC: 186 ratifications
• Kyoto Protocol: 39 ratifications, 84 signatures
• step-by-step approach• umbrella convention
– UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change)
• protocol with quantified targets – Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC
• universal regime:• FCCC: 186 ratifications
• Kyoto Protocol: 39 ratifications, 84 signatures
Hermann E. Ott Hermann E. Ott
Open Meeting, Open Meeting,
Rio, Oct. 6 - 8, 2001Rio, Oct. 6 - 8, 2001
...more on institutions:...more on institutions:
• differentiated obligations for industrialised countries (5.17 % globally)
• modified by Bonn Agreement:– reduced to 2.49 % by additional LULUCF
activities (Article 3.4)
• negotiations on further commitment periods scheduled to start in 2005
• differentiated obligations for industrialised countries (5.17 % globally)
• modified by Bonn Agreement:– reduced to 2.49 % by additional LULUCF
activities (Article 3.4)
• negotiations on further commitment periods scheduled to start in 2005
Hermann E. Ott Hermann E. Ott
Open Meeting, Open Meeting,
Rio, Oct. 6 - 8, 2001Rio, Oct. 6 - 8, 2001
...and even more on institutions:...and even more on institutions:
• a functioning system for inventories• = reporting and monitoring
• basis for compliance regime in KP, elaborated in Bonn Agreement
• “Kyoto Mechanisms”• Emissions Trading, Joint Implementation, Clean
Development Mechanism
• a functioning system for inventories• = reporting and monitoring
• basis for compliance regime in KP, elaborated in Bonn Agreement
• “Kyoto Mechanisms”• Emissions Trading, Joint Implementation, Clean
Development Mechanism
Hermann E. Ott Hermann E. Ott
Open Meeting, Open Meeting,
Rio, Oct. 6 - 8, 2001Rio, Oct. 6 - 8, 2001
Hermann E. Ott Hermann E. Ott
Open Meeting, Open Meeting,
Rio, Oct. 6 - 8, 2001Rio, Oct. 6 - 8, 2001
Impacts?Behavioural Change?
Impacts?Behavioural Change?
• not really quantifiable or discernible
• considerable reductions in UK and Germany in anticipation of entry into force
• industry has caught on but is not yet won
• “impacts” so far largely psychological
• not really quantifiable or discernible
• considerable reductions in UK and Germany in anticipation of entry into force
• industry has caught on but is not yet won
• “impacts” so far largely psychological
Hermann E. Ott Hermann E. Ott
Open Meeting, Open Meeting,
Rio, Oct. 6 - 8, 2001Rio, Oct. 6 - 8, 2001
Conclusion:Conclusion:
All we’ve got is institutions!All we’ve got is institutions!
Hermann E. Ott Hermann E. Ott
Open Meeting, Open Meeting,
Rio, Oct. 6 - 8, 2001Rio, Oct. 6 - 8, 2001
This is no small progress, but difficulties in the process (like after The Hague) immediately threaten the regime as such!
This is no small progress, but difficulties in the process (like after The Hague) immediately threaten the regime as such!
...and of course: in troubled waters,
proposals for alternative routes abound!
...and of course: in troubled waters,
proposals for alternative routes abound!
Hermann E. Ott Hermann E. Ott
Open Meeting, Open Meeting,
Rio, Oct. 6 - 8, 2001Rio, Oct. 6 - 8, 2001
Proposals include:Proposals include:• abandon Kyoto process altogether!
– 10 years of effort wasted...no alternatives put forward really
• strictly voluntary measures – unfortunately did not work
• global CO2 tax– mostly from US scientists - whose Govt fiercely opposes idea
• policies and measures – great idea, but maybe not solely
• intensity targets– petrify emission profiles, maybe good for developing countries
• price caps – interesting, but environmentally flawed
• abandon Kyoto process altogether!– 10 years of effort wasted...no alternatives put forward really
• strictly voluntary measures – unfortunately did not work
• global CO2 tax– mostly from US scientists - whose Govt fiercely opposes idea
• policies and measures – great idea, but maybe not solely
• intensity targets– petrify emission profiles, maybe good for developing countries
• price caps – interesting, but environmentally flawed
Hermann E. Ott Hermann E. Ott
Open Meeting, Open Meeting,
Rio, Oct. 6 - 8, 2001Rio, Oct. 6 - 8, 2001
Something to Remember:The Challenges of Climate Change
Something to Remember:The Challenges of Climate Change
• a most complex problem - diffuse, multi-layered, dispersed in time and space etc. etc....
• fundamental change in production & consumption– from the fossil/atomic age to solar age– from waste/abundance to efficiency/sufficiency
• redistribution of wealth (nations/individuals)• new systemic body of international law• ...in a nutshell:
– climate change is at heart of the sustainability agenda...
• a most complex problem - diffuse, multi-layered, dispersed in time and space etc. etc....
• fundamental change in production & consumption– from the fossil/atomic age to solar age– from waste/abundance to efficiency/sufficiency
• redistribution of wealth (nations/individuals)• new systemic body of international law• ...in a nutshell:
– climate change is at heart of the sustainability agenda...
Hermann E. Ott Hermann E. Ott
Open Meeting, Open Meeting,
Rio, Oct. 6 - 8, 2001Rio, Oct. 6 - 8, 2001
To remember as well: marvellous institutional novelties!
To remember as well: marvellous institutional novelties!
• establishment of three complex international market mechanisms
• strongest non-compliance procedure in international environmental law
• first levy on international market transactions• first acknowledgement of principle of
contraction and convergence
• establishment of three complex international market mechanisms
• strongest non-compliance procedure in international environmental law
• first levy on international market transactions• first acknowledgement of principle of
contraction and convergence
Hermann E. Ott Hermann E. Ott
Open Meeting, Open Meeting,
Rio, Oct. 6 - 8, 2001Rio, Oct. 6 - 8, 2001
So what might be done???So what might be done???
Hermann E. Ott Hermann E. Ott
Open Meeting, Open Meeting,
Rio, Oct. 6 - 8, 2001Rio, Oct. 6 - 8, 2001
• Kyoto should remain main show in town– indispensable as global framework– catalyst of political and industrial action– forum for creation of new international norms
• let a thousand flowers blossom!– why not more regional approaches?– “IRENA”, “EREA” etc. for pushing renewables– liability: is there a case against oil companies?– international aviation fuel tax should be on
agenda, inside or outside climate regime
• Kyoto should remain main show in town– indispensable as global framework– catalyst of political and industrial action– forum for creation of new international norms
• let a thousand flowers blossom!– why not more regional approaches?– “IRENA”, “EREA” etc. for pushing renewables– liability: is there a case against oil companies?– international aviation fuel tax should be on
agenda, inside or outside climate regime
Hermann E. Ott Hermann E. Ott
Open Meeting, Open Meeting,
Rio, Oct. 6 - 8, 2001Rio, Oct. 6 - 8, 2001
...inside the climate regime:...inside the climate regime:
• short term issues:– COP 7 is not yet done...– first priority: ratification asap– European leadership will have to remain strong
(even after September 11)
• short term issues:– COP 7 is not yet done...– first priority: ratification asap– European leadership will have to remain strong
(even after September 11)
Hermann E. Ott Hermann E. Ott
Open Meeting, Open Meeting,
Rio, Oct. 6 - 8, 2001Rio, Oct. 6 - 8, 2001
Longer Term IssuesLonger Term Issues
• improve the regime structure!
• co-ordinate PAMs!
• address equity!
• co-operate with OPEC!
• improve the regime structure!
• co-ordinate PAMs!
• address equity!
• co-operate with OPEC!
Hermann E. Ott Hermann E. Ott
Open Meeting, Open Meeting,
Rio, Oct. 6 - 8, 2001Rio, Oct. 6 - 8, 2001
Improve regime structure:Improve regime structure:
• reduction of issues– regime has become overloaded, KISS principle
• reduction of complexity– majority voting urgently required– allow for different speeds (Arts 43/44 TEU)
• improve institutional structure– continuous process of communication required
• reduction of issues– regime has become overloaded, KISS principle
• reduction of complexity– majority voting urgently required– allow for different speeds (Arts 43/44 TEU)
• improve institutional structure– continuous process of communication required
Hermann E. Ott Hermann E. Ott
Open Meeting, Open Meeting,
Rio, Oct. 6 - 8, 2001Rio, Oct. 6 - 8, 2001
Co-ordination of PAMsCo-ordination of PAMs• domestic implementation of policies and
measures has been slow in most countries
• fear of comparative disadvantages requires a co-ordinated approach
• some prime candidates:– fiscal policy: co-ordinate carbon/energy taxes– dismantle climate adverse subsidies– harmonise efficiency standards– foster climate friendly public procurement
• domestic implementation of policies and measures has been slow in most countries
• fear of comparative disadvantages requires a co-ordinated approach
• some prime candidates:– fiscal policy: co-ordinate carbon/energy taxes– dismantle climate adverse subsidies– harmonise efficiency standards– foster climate friendly public procurement
Hermann E. Ott Hermann E. Ott
Open Meeting, Open Meeting,
Rio, Oct. 6 - 8, 2001Rio, Oct. 6 - 8, 2001
Equity: the keyEquity: the key
• the challenge: fair and equitable allocation
• simple “grandfathering” will not do
• process as well as substance are important– substance: a formula for allocation, based on
transparent and sensible criteria– process: must be non-confrontational, without
undue demands for “meaningful participation”
• the challenge: fair and equitable allocation
• simple “grandfathering” will not do
• process as well as substance are important– substance: a formula for allocation, based on
transparent and sensible criteria– process: must be non-confrontational, without
undue demands for “meaningful participation”
Hermann E. Ott Hermann E. Ott
Open Meeting, Open Meeting,
Rio, Oct. 6 - 8, 2001Rio, Oct. 6 - 8, 2001
Co-operation with OPECCo-operation with OPEC• oil price fluctuations between $20 and $40 per
barrel severely obstruct rational climate policy– prices too low: no incentive to save energy
– prices too high: deligitimize energy taxes etc.
• revenues under CO2/energy taxes go exclusively to Northern governments
• many forms of co-operation possible – from simple price control to
– producer - consumer cartels
– options should be explored
• oil price fluctuations between $20 and $40 per barrel severely obstruct rational climate policy– prices too low: no incentive to save energy
– prices too high: deligitimize energy taxes etc.
• revenues under CO2/energy taxes go exclusively to Northern governments
• many forms of co-operation possible – from simple price control to
– producer - consumer cartels
– options should be explored
Hermann E. Ott Hermann E. Ott
Open Meeting, Open Meeting,
Rio, Oct. 6 - 8, 2001Rio, Oct. 6 - 8, 2001
The Sky Trust Idea(from Peter Barnes: Who Owns the Sky?)
The Sky Trust Idea(from Peter Barnes: Who Owns the Sky?)
• carbon emissions cap for country/region
• upstream emissions trading (energy comp.)
• revenues from permit sales go into trust
• trust pays equal annual dividends to all citizens
• problem: rather nation-based idea, difficult to implement at global level
• carbon emissions cap for country/region
• upstream emissions trading (energy comp.)
• revenues from permit sales go into trust
• trust pays equal annual dividends to all citizens
• problem: rather nation-based idea, difficult to implement at global level
Hermann E. Ott Hermann E. Ott
Open Meeting, Open Meeting,
Rio, Oct. 6 - 8, 2001Rio, Oct. 6 - 8, 2001
Thank you / Obrigado!Thank you / Obrigado!
For more information go to
http://www.wupperinst.org
or mail to
For more information go to
http://www.wupperinst.org
or mail to