The Future of the Internet

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Payam BarnaghiInstitute for Communication Systems (ICS)Electronic Engineering Department University of SurreyGuildford, United Kingdom

The Grand Challenge (Tracking 21st Century challenges together)University of Exeter, June 2015

2IBM Mainframe 360, source Wikipedia

Apollo 11 Command Module (1965) had 64 kilobytes of memory operated at 0.043MHz.

An iPhone 5s has a CPU running at speeds of up to 1.3GHzand has 512MB to 1GB of memory

Cray-1 (1975) produced 80 million Floating point operations per second (FLOPS)10 years later, Cray-2 produced 1.9G FLOPS

An iPhone 5s produces 76.8 GFLOPS – nearly a thousand times more

Cray-2 used 200-kilowatt power

Source: Nick T., PhoneArena.com, 2014

Computing Power

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−Smaller size−More Powerful−More memory and more storage

−"Moore's law" over the history of computing, the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit has doubled approximately every two years.

Smaller in size but larger in scale

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The Internet: A brief history

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− 1961: Leonard Kleinrock at MIT published the first paper on packet switching theory in July 1961.

− 1962: J.C.R. Licklider of MIT discussed his "Galactic Network" concept - a globally interconnected set of computers through which everyone could quickly access data and programs from any site.

− 1968: an RFQ was released by DARPA for the development of one of the key components, the packet switches called Interface Message Processors (IMP's).

− The RFQ was won in December 1968 by a group headed by Frank Heart at Bolt Beranek and Newman (BBN).

Source: Internet Society

The Internet: A brief history

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− 1970: the Network Working Group (NWG) working under S. Crocker finished the initial ARPANET Host-to-Host protocol, called the Network Control Protocol (NCP).

− 1972: Bob Kahn organized a large, very successful demonstration of the ARPANET at the International Computer Communication Conference (ICCC). − This was the first public demonstration of this new

network technology to the public.

− 1972: the first "hot" application, electronic mail, was introduced.

Source: Internet Society

The old Internet timeline

8Source: Internet Society

TCP/IP in the early days of the Internet

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− The original Cerf/Kahn paper on the Internet described one protocol, called TCP, which provided all the transport and forwarding services in the Internet.

− A 32 bit IP address was used of which the first 8 bits signified the network and the remaining 24 bits designated the host on that network.

− The assumption was that 256 networks would be sufficient for the foreseeable future…

− Obviously this was before LANs (Ethernet was under development at Xerox PARC at that time)

Expansion beyond estimation

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In November 1979, a proposal was submitted to NSF to fund a consortium of eleven universities at an estimated cost of $3 million over five years. This is viewed as too costly by the NSF.

Source: Computer History museum

4 node Arpanet

Predicting the future (in 1999)!

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− 1999: “The number of hosts (locatable through DNS) will exceed 100 M, very soon!”

− A few years later in 2013, 80 “things” per second were connecting to the internet.  In 2014 that number was around 100 per second, and by 2020, more than 250 things will connect each second. (source Cisco)

− It is estimated that by 2020 there will be more than 50 billion internet connected devices. (source Cisco)

Submarine cables

12Image source: mail online

Fiber optic cables around the world

A single fibre can transmit as much as 100 billion bits per second (100 Gbps, about ten thousand times faster than a typical home broadband connection)

- A cable can contain hundreds of fibres, a single cable can have enough capacity for the communications of millions of users.

Source: http://www.vox.com/a/internet-mapsSource: http://www.vox.com/a/internet-maps

Countries at risk of getting disconnected from the internet

Source: http://www.vox.com/a/internet-maps

Connectivity and information exchange was (and is ) one of the main motivations behind the Internet; but Content and Services are now the key elements;

and all started growing rapidly by the introduction of the World Wide Web.

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The World Wide Web

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Tim Berners-Lee

Early days of the Web

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Search on the Internet/Web in the early days

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And there came Google!

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Google says that the web has now 30 trillion unique individual pages;

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Source: Intel, 2012

Source: http://www.techspartan.co.uk

Source: http://www.techspartan.co.uk

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AnyPlace AnyTime

AnyThing

Data Volume

Security, Reliability, Trust and Privacy

Societal Impacts, Economic Values and Viability

Services and Applications

Networking andCommunication

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Sensor devices are becoming widely available

- Programmable devices- Off-the-shelf gadgets/tools

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More “Things” are being connected

Home/daily-life devicesBusiness and Public infrastructureHealth-care…

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People Connecting to Things

Motion sensorMotion sensor

Motion sensor

ECG sensor

Internet

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Things Connecting to Things

- Complex and heterogeneous resources and networks

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Connected world

31Image courtesy: Wilgengebroed

DataData

SemanticsSemantics

Social

networksSocial

networksM2M

Communic

ations

M2M

Communic

ations

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Internet of Things (IoT)

− Extending the current Internet and providing connection, communication, and inter-networking between devices and physical objects, or "Things," is a growing trend that is often referred to as the Internet of Things.

− “The technologies and solutions that enable integration of real world data and services into the current information networking technologies are often described under the umbrella term of the Internet of Things (IoT)”

Mobile Technologies

33Image courtesy: Economist

1G

AMPS, NMT, TACS

2G

GSM. GPRS, TDMA IS-136,

CDMA IS-95, PDC

3G

UMTS, CDMA2000,

4G5G

LTE, LTE-A

People

Things

Voice

Text

Data

5G technologiesand standards

Connection + Control M2M/IoT

Change in the communication technologies

Mobile Services and Applications

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Image courtesy: Economist

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Things, Devices, Data, and lots of it

image courtesy: Smarter Data - I.03_C by Gwen Vanhee

“delivering only data is not often sufficient, the systems should be able to provide machine-interpretable and/or human-understandable insights (actionable-information)”

Sinknode Gateway

Core networke.g. Internet

Core networke.g. Internet

What is the temperature at home?What is the temperature at home?Freezing!Freezing!

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Internet of Things: The story so far

RFID based

solutions Wireless Sensor and

Actuator networks, solutions for

communication technologies, energy

efficiency, routing, …

Smart Devices/Web-enabled

Apps/Services, initial products,

vertical applications, early concepts and demos, …

Motion sensor

Motion sensor

ECG sensor

Physical-Cyber-Social Systems, Linked-data,

semantics, M2M, More products, more

heterogeneity, solutions for control and

monitoring, …

Future: Cloud, Big (IoT) Data Analytics, Interoperability,

Enhanced Cellular/Wireless Com. for IoT, Real-world operational

use-cases and Industry and B2B services/applications,

more Standards…

The scale

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Things Data

Devices

2.5 quintillion bytes per day

Billions and Billions of them…

Estimated 50 Billion by 2020

The IoT is a dynamic, online and rapidly changing world

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isPartOf

Publishing content/data on the Web

Data in the IoT

Image sources: ABC Australia and 2dolphins.com

What type of problems we expect to solve?

43Source LAT Times, http://documents.latimes.com/la-2013/

Future cities: A view from 1998

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Source: http://robertluisrabello.com/denial/traffic-in-la/#gallery[default]/0/

Source: wikipedia

Back to the Future: 2013

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Applications and potentials

− Analysis of thousands of traffic, pollution, weather, congestion, public transport, waste and event sensory data to provide better transport and city management.

− Converting smart meter readings to information that can help prediction and balance of power consumption in a city.

− Monitoring elderly homes, personal and public healthcare applications.

− Event and incident analysis and prediction using (near) real-time data collected by citizen and device sensors.

− Turning social media data (e.g. Tweets) related to city issues into event and sentiment analysis.

− Any many more…

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The physical world data

− Multi-modal and heterogeneous− Noisy and incomplete− Time and location dependent − Dynamic and varies in quality − Crowed sourced data can be unreliable − Requires (near-) real-time analysis− Privacy and security are important issues− Data can be biased- we need to know our data!

− Data alone may not give a clear picture -we need contextual information, background knowledge, multi-source information and obviously better data analytics solutions…

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Some examples

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Live data visualisation

49P. Source: Lasse Steenbock Vestergaard, CityPulse Project

Live event visualisation

50P. Source: Lasse Steenbock Vestergaard, CityPulse Project

Learning form data

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F. Ganz, P. Barnaghi, F. Carrez, "Information Abstraction for Heterogeneous Real World Internet Data", IEEE Sensors Journal, 2013.

Ontology learning from real world data

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Extraction of events and semantics from social media

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City Infrastructure

Tweets from a city

P. Anantharam, P. Barnaghi, K. Thirunarayan, A. Sheth, "Extracting city events from social streams,“, 2014.

https://osf.io/b4q2t/

The Future of the Internet

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In next 5 years

The rise of sharing economy

55Source: the Economist

More broadband in remote areas

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More people getting connected

57Source: the Economist

More connected wearable devcies

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The rise of village notebook/internet kiosks

59Source: wikipedia, green diary

More privacy/control issues

60Source: wikipedia, the economist

Applications and Services

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Data-centric networking

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Smart Grid

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Source: Economist, http://www.economist.com/node/13725843

The Future of the Internet

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In next 25 years

Mind will be the machine

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Pushing the boundaries between human and the machine!

The borders blend

66Source: IEEE Internet Computing

Information will find you, instead of you finding the information

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Boundary between human, technology and devices

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Accumulated and connected knowledge?

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Image courtesy: IEEE Spectrum

Global Challenges

− Net neutrality− Openness and freedom of access− Privacy and control on personal data− Cyber security and trust− Dependability and resilience − Who owns what, and who controls what− Digital divide − Social impacts

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Technical challenges

− (Automated) data to actionable-information process

− Finding and linking complimentary and related information

− Energy resources and bandwidth − Quality of Service − (near-) real-time access to information for

everything/everywhere − Autonomous machine-to-machine interactions − Fast speed networking − Security, privacy, trust for applications and

servcies 71

Let’s hope

−The Internet of the Future will be −Open and accessible for everyone,

everywhere, available at anytime,−People will have control on their data−Data will be used for helping people−Smart applications will contribute to a

better life and to a better use of of our resources in the world!

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Thank you.

http://personal.ee.surrey.ac.uk/Personal/P.Barnaghi/

@pbarnaghi

p.barnaghi@surrey.ac.uk