THE FUTURE OUTLOOK OF DESALINATION IN THE GULF: CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES

Presented by: Omar Saif

Supervisors

Research Question

Preliminary research... Primary research!

How sustainable is desalination in the Gulf region? What is it’s role in the water and energy sectors? What is the future outlook? What are the challenges and opportunities?

- Doha (2 weeks) - Dubai & Sharjah (5 days), Abu Dhabi (9 days)

APRIL 14TH – MAY 14TH 2012

Primary Research 1. Met with professionals from industry, government and academia 2. Attended two conferences, in Doha and in Abu Dhabi

Desalination Brine water

50+ ppt

Saline water 30 - 50 ppt

Brackish water 0.5 - 30 ppt

Fresh water 0 - 0.5 ppt

Membrane Based Ex. RO

Thermal Based Ex. MSF & MED

ENERGY

Desalination & the Environment

1. Long term cumulative effects of desalination on the Gulf 2. Tying of energy and water through desalination has broader implications!

3-19%

GDP

Qatar & UAE Background & Indicators

3-5%

140 to

170

Million

toe DESERT Climate

32 to

40

TONNES

/ YEAR

13 to

17

/ YEAR

t o e

Up to

99% DESALI-NATION

> 3000 m3/person/year

120X SUSTAINBLE

> 3000

8 – 10% GROWTH

8 – 10% GROWTH

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Cu

mu

lati

ve O

nlin

e C

apac

ity

(m3

/d)

Cumulative Installed Desalination Capacity in GCC Since 1970

Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia UAE

Water & Energy Demand Growth

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Cu

mu

lati

ve O

nlin

e C

apac

ity

(m3

/d)

Cumulative Installed Desalination Capacity in Qatar & UAE Since 1970

Qatar UAE

0.0

1000.0

2000.0

3000.0

4000.0

5000.0

6000.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020

Wat

er

De

man

d (

10

00

M3

/d)

Water Demand Forecast

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020

Ele

ctri

city

De

man

d (

TWh

)

Electricity Demand Forecast

Water & Energy Sectors in Qatar & UAE

NATURAL GAS

DESAL-

COGENERATION

POWER

ENERGY WATER

Water & Energy Sectors in Qatar & UAE

W&E Producers

Transmission/Distribution Companies

End User

W&E companies: i.e. Kahramaa, ADWEC

Distribution companies: i.e. Kahramaa, ADDC, AADC

W&E Authorities: Kahramaa, ADWEA, DEWA, SEWA, FEWA

Water & Electricity Tariffs

WATER ELECTRICITY $0.07/kWh 2.74/m3

$0.07-0.09/kWh $2.48/m3

Qatar

Abu Dhabi

PRODUCTION COST TARIFF

$0-0.04/kWh 0-1.92/m3

$0.01-0.04/kWh $0-0.60/m3

38-100% 30-100%

40-88% 76-100%

SUBSIDY

Negative Effects of Subsidization

m3/person/year 2 X GLOBAL AVG

> 3000

ELECTRICAL INTENSITY WATER INTENSITY

KWh/person/year 25% more than USA

> 16,000

Hong Kong

Luxembourg

Singapore

Switzerland

Norway

United Kingdom

Italy

Germany

United States

Japan

France

Canada

South Korea

Qatar

Kuwait

UAE

Oman

Brazil

Saudi Arabia Bahrain

China

India -

15,000

30,000

45,000

60,000

75,000

90,000

105,000

0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70

GD

P (

PP

P)/

cap

ita

(USD

)

Energy Intensity (toe/thousand 2000 USD)

GDP PER CAPITA VS. ENERGY INTENSITY OF VARIOUS NATIONS

Future Outlook of W&E Sectors Increased demand for both water and electricity Increased privatization, particularly of water & electricity production Increasing interest in sustainability

Sustainability Consideration

Water/Energy Supply-Demand Gap

Demand management

Supply management

Water Supply Management

DESAL CAPACITY

ENERGY DIVERSITY

STORAGE CAPACITY

0100020003000400050006000700080009000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Cu

mu

lati

ve In

stal

led

C

apac

ity

(1

00

0 m

3/d

ay)

Desalination Forecast for Qatar and the UAE 2000-2020

Qatar UAE

WATER STORAGE CAPACITY

< 2 DAY

ASR Aquifer Storage & Recovery

Water Reservoirs

Plant Status Qatar (m3/day) UAE (m3/day)

Contracted 537,135 353,410

Planned 337,060 2,242,573

Total 874,195 2,595,983

Water Demand Management

TECHNICAL EFFECIENCY

BEHAVIOURAL CHANGE

BUILDING CODES WATER NETWORKS WATER SAVING DEVICES

ENVIRONMENTAL AWARENESS

Tari

ff

MULTI-SECTOR TARIFF INCREASE

?

Human Capital

INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITIES

LOCAL INSTITUTIONS

QATARIZATION & EMIRITIZATION

Policy Recommendations

PRIORITIES 1) Decrease water & energy demand 2) Increase supply of energy from greener sources 3) Increase environmental management 4) Increase water supply & system capacity 5) Enhance institutional capacity

Policy Recommendations

Decrease water & energy demand

1) Adopt an Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) approach.

2) Increase public awareness about water and energy consumption.

3) Increase water and electricity tariffs for all sectors.

4) Increase the technical efficiency of water and electricity systems.

5) Increase the water use efficiency in the agricultural sector.

Policy Recommendations

Increase supply of energy from greener sources

1) Creation of a renewable energy roadmap at the national and emirate based level.

2) Decouple water and energy production.

3) Promote greater public-private-partnerships.

4) Continue and expand research on alternative and renewable energy.

5) Continue and expand alternative and renewable energy projects/installations.

Policy Recommendations

Increase environmental management

1) Adopt an Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) approach.

2) Reduce environmental impacts of seawater intake by desalination plants on the

marine environment.

3) Reduce environmental impacts of brine discharge by desalination plants on the

marine environment.

4) Reduce green house gas emissions resultant of water production from

desalination.

Policy Recommendations

Increase water supply & system capacity

1) Increase rates of reclaimed water utilization.

2) Increase desalination capacity.

3) Increase system capacity.

Enhance institutional capacity

1) Enhance human capital, research capacity and public-private-partnerships

Conclusion

Technological advances in both sectors

Growing awareness within government & industry

Growing research capacity and human capital

THANK YOU!