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Slide 1
The future (r)evolution of HE?28th Nov 2012
Louis Coiffait, Head of [email protected]
The Pearson Think Tankthepearsonthinktank.com
The future of HE
Quick introductions1
PearsonMore than 45k staff in over 70 countries helping over 100m learners
The worlds leading learning company?
Change at the topDame Marjorie ScardinoJohn Fallon
The Pearson Think Tank
Independent education think tank focused on researchintoeducation access and quality
-
A shifting global context2
Recent sustained growth in HE learnersIn 36 countries covered by OECD data there are more than twice as many 25-34 year olds (81m) with degrees than 55-64 year olds (39m)
Sources: Andreas Schleicher (2012) What does the future hold for higher education?, OECD http://goo.gl/sEpa1 based on data fromEducation at a glance (2012) OECD, http://goo.gl/u9LbT Number of 55-64 year-oldsNumber of 25-34 year-olds
39m
81m
Increasingly studying in, not just coming from emerging nations
Sources: Andreas Schleicher (2012) What does the future hold for higher education?, OECD http://goo.gl/sEpa1 based on data fromEducation at a glance (2012) OECD, http://goo.gl/u9LbT
The % share of graduates by nationality is shifting from West to East% share of 55-64 year-olds% share of 25-34 year-olds
Chart1
35.762554669520.4846072084
12.436639400910.8850855119
6.938605419718.3447146506
6.28481869223.0503358862
5.31392319734.420428301
4.18331009693.1397438114
3.54099470094.0588809245
3.50175416684.4820977284
2.0921134421Spain
1.9008522289Italy
1.8230989723Mexico
1.7058881149Australia
1.6165741465Korea
12.898872751other
55-64-year-old population
25-34-year-old population
USA, 35.8
UK, 5.3
Slovenia 0.0
Sheet1
CountryUnited StatesJapanChinaGermanyUnited KingdomCanadaFranceBrazilSpainItalyMexicoAustraliaKoreaother
55-64-year-old population35.812.46.96.35.34.23.53.52.11.90085222891.82309897231.70588811491.616574146512.9
25-34-year-old population20.510.918.33.14.43.14.14.53.53296136881.95259840783.86896450331.63411730585.688715614114.5
raw dataraw dataraw data%%
2534556425345564
United States16635.967414004.0758320.535.8
Japan8840487010.912.4
China14898.1172717.05318.36.9
Germany2477.242461.043.16.3
United Kingdom3589.922080.8524.45.3
Canada2549.851638.1213.14.2
France3296.31386.64.13.5
Brazil3640.0031371.2344.53.5
Spain2869.19819.243.52.1
Italy1585.745744.3452.01.9
Mexico3142.065713.8983.91.8
Australia1327.16681.61.7
Korea4619.922633.0265.71.6
Other11740.6206001665051.003592901114.512.9
Poland2134.4603.52.61.5
Netherlands775.765755578.731611.01.5
Chile1347.034484.9241.71.2
Turkey19333982.41.0
Sweden479.4310713867323.96876471030.60.8
Belgium588.2340199161305.64314899370.70.8
Israel459.1297.280.60.8
Switzerland406.588095188262.78880972250.50.7
Finland266.92495225.16677750.30.6
Hungary383.679209.8070.50.5
Greece465.7378927018196.45297036250.60.5
Denmark284.940915178.72480.40.5
Czech Republic346.0854034733159.93419161210.40.4
Norway271.8157.40.30.4
New Zealand242.4148.60.30.4
Austria227.24517148.555850.30.4
Portugal375.53994.5840.50.2
Ireland354.347417588.42351750.40.2
Slovak Republic190.88276.68350.20.2
Estonia69.935477550.46103750.10.1
Slovenia91.462367541.57514750.10.1
Luxembourg30.067457512.37694750.00.0
Iceland16.02060757.421520.00.0
81212.04000016639158.4884229011
Chart1
20.4846072084United States
10.8850855119Japan
18.3447146506China
3.0503358862Germany
4.420428301United Kingdom
3.1397438114Canada
4.0588809245France
4.4820977284Brazil
3.5329613688Spain
1.9525984078Italy
3.8689645033Mexico
1.6341173058Australia
5.6887156141Korea
14.4567487778other
25-34-year-old population
USA, 20.5
UK, 4.4
Slovenia 0.0
Sheet1
CountryUnited StatesJapanChinaGermanyUnited KingdomCanadaFranceBrazilSpainItalyMexicoAustraliaKoreaother
25-34-year-old population20.510.918.33.14.43.14.14.53.51.95259840783.86896450331.63411730585.688715614114.5
raw dataraw dataraw data%%
2534556425345564
United States16635.967414004.0758320.535.8
Japan8840487010.912.4
China14898.1172717.05318.36.9
Germany2477.242461.043.16.3
United Kingdom3589.922080.8524.45.3
Canada2549.851638.1213.14.2
France3296.31386.64.13.5
Brazil3640.0031371.2344.53.5
Spain2869.19819.243.52.1
Italy1585.745744.3452.01.9
Mexico3142.065713.8983.91.8
Australia1327.16681.61.7
Korea4619.922633.0265.71.6
Other11740.6206001665051.003592901114.512.9
Poland2134.4603.52.61.5
Netherlands775.765755578.731611.01.5
Chile1347.034484.9241.71.2
Turkey19333982.41.0
Sweden479.4310713867323.96876471030.60.8
Belgium588.2340199161305.64314899370.70.8
Israel459.1297.280.60.8
Switzerland406.588095188262.78880972250.50.7
Finland266.92495225.16677750.30.6
Hungary383.679209.8070.50.5
Greece465.7378927018196.45297036250.60.5
Denmark284.940915178.72480.40.5
Czech Republic346.0854034733159.93419161210.40.4
Norway271.8157.40.30.4
New Zealand242.4148.60.30.4
Austria227.24517148.555850.30.4
Portugal375.53994.5840.50.2
Ireland354.347417588.42351750.40.2
Slovak Republic190.88276.68350.20.2
Estonia69.935477550.46103750.10.1
Slovenia91.462367541.57514750.10.1
Luxembourg30.067457512.37694750.00.0
Iceland16.02060757.421520.00.0
81212.04000016639158.4884229011
Future 18-22 year-old population by 2020
Source: UN Population Division, Oxford Economics (2011)
Growth in internationally mobile learnersThis growing pie represents a huge opportunity to help educate the next billionto build institutional capacityto develop world class institutions
But its not the answer to all HEs prayers
Sources: Altbach et al (2009) Trends in Global Higher Education: Tracking an Academic Revolution, UNESCO http://goo.gl/Khw2s; Opening Doors International mobility (2012) Institute of International Education (IIE) http://goo.gl/ohi19; The shape of things to come (2012) British Council http://goo.gl/ibeJq, Education at a glance (2012) OECD, http://goo.gl/u9LbT
Future 18-22 year-old population over time
Huge falls for China,South Korea, Russiaand Germany
Steady levels for the USA and Brazil
Steady growth for India
Source: UN Population Division, Oxford Economics (2011)
Asias changing population pyramidSource: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat
19902010
Changing market share (%) of foreign HE students enrolled, by destination, 2000-2010Source: Schleicher and OECD EAG (2012) ibid.
Other
Chart1
22.933281852416.6255563684
10.759654192612.9777795561
5.10453253866.5847260995
9.02685256136.4086286475
6.61619117146.3106305786
4.55611527724.7473635557
1.98893561063.9076213083
3.21468173293.4377016535
1.23081378162.3940507896
1.7561128641.8000511416
0.39624269261.7208709059
1.2031588411.6971344013
1.46633927981.6639499875
2.1900492891.5283846396
0.16279252161.4370956834
1.87257250071.336658733
1.25499375591.3085936823
0.67626706561.192934598
1.2330338991.0888317111
3.69972912156.3503925597
18.657649450715.4810433996
2000
2010
Sheet1
Country20002010
US22.9316.63
UK10.7612.98
Australia5.106.58
Germany9.036.41
France6.626.31
Canada4.564.75
Russia1.993.91
Japan3.213.44
Spain1.232.39
China1.761.80
New Zealand0.401.72
Italy1.201.70
Austria1.471.66
South Africa2.191.53
Korea0.161.44
Belgium1.871.34
Switzerland1.251.31
Netherlands0.681.19
Sweden1.231.09
Other OECD3.706.35
Other G20 / non-OECD18.6615.48
Other partner economies12.073304088310.4482224404
Particularly strong growth in vocational learner numbers in emerging countriesSource: The Education Advantage (2012) The Research Base http://goo.gl/o7AeS based on US Census Bureau, World Bank and UNESCO data
Different types of higher education around the world
Costs and graduation rates over timeUSSource: Schleicher and OECD EAG (2012) ibid. Cost per studentGraduate supply
Chart1
35.3527071024
3.9015167496
-20
-20
-20
28.450357645
0.5959547315
-20
2.2484657274
14.6609357233
10.814364493
-20
19.7426561561
-20
30.2937250019
37.459742351
17.0746642635
64.9120502295
-20
-20
22.612571951
20.6131292339
-20
6.2899386042
-20
3.4986208673
4.6023597961
-20
25.6247321873
6.4384707723
-20
-20
20.0495079688
62.5685153298
Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD)
of 50
