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The future (r)evolution in higher education?

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This is a slowly evolving presentation I'm working on that attempts to explore future trends for higher education. The first half uses secondary data and charts to explore issues such as demography and development. The second half then looks at some responses by the sector with suggestions for considerations in the future. It is based on my experience with the Blue Skies project (http://pearsonblueskies.com/) editing over 60 articles by leading authors from around the world - each sharing their vision of the future for HE. Please get in touch if you'd like to contribute as it is an ongoing project. Comments and shares both appreciated.
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Slide 1

The future (r)evolution of HE?28th Nov 2012

Louis Coiffait, Head of [email protected]

The Pearson Think Tankthepearsonthinktank.com

The future of HE

Quick introductions1

PearsonMore than 45k staff in over 70 countries helping over 100m learners

The worlds leading learning company?

Change at the topDame Marjorie ScardinoJohn Fallon

The Pearson Think Tank

Independent education think tank focused on researchintoeducation access and quality

-

A shifting global context2

Recent sustained growth in HE learnersIn 36 countries covered by OECD data there are more than twice as many 25-34 year olds (81m) with degrees than 55-64 year olds (39m)

Sources: Andreas Schleicher (2012) What does the future hold for higher education?, OECD http://goo.gl/sEpa1 based on data fromEducation at a glance (2012) OECD, http://goo.gl/u9LbT Number of 55-64 year-oldsNumber of 25-34 year-olds

39m

81m

Increasingly studying in, not just coming from emerging nations

Sources: Andreas Schleicher (2012) What does the future hold for higher education?, OECD http://goo.gl/sEpa1 based on data fromEducation at a glance (2012) OECD, http://goo.gl/u9LbT

The % share of graduates by nationality is shifting from West to East% share of 55-64 year-olds% share of 25-34 year-olds

Chart1

35.762554669520.4846072084

12.436639400910.8850855119

6.938605419718.3447146506

6.28481869223.0503358862

5.31392319734.420428301

4.18331009693.1397438114

3.54099470094.0588809245

3.50175416684.4820977284

2.0921134421Spain

1.9008522289Italy

1.8230989723Mexico

1.7058881149Australia

1.6165741465Korea

12.898872751other

55-64-year-old population

25-34-year-old population

USA, 35.8

UK, 5.3

Slovenia 0.0

Sheet1

CountryUnited StatesJapanChinaGermanyUnited KingdomCanadaFranceBrazilSpainItalyMexicoAustraliaKoreaother

55-64-year-old population35.812.46.96.35.34.23.53.52.11.90085222891.82309897231.70588811491.616574146512.9

25-34-year-old population20.510.918.33.14.43.14.14.53.53296136881.95259840783.86896450331.63411730585.688715614114.5

raw dataraw dataraw data%%

2534556425345564

United States16635.967414004.0758320.535.8

Japan8840487010.912.4

China14898.1172717.05318.36.9

Germany2477.242461.043.16.3

United Kingdom3589.922080.8524.45.3

Canada2549.851638.1213.14.2

France3296.31386.64.13.5

Brazil3640.0031371.2344.53.5

Spain2869.19819.243.52.1

Italy1585.745744.3452.01.9

Mexico3142.065713.8983.91.8

Australia1327.16681.61.7

Korea4619.922633.0265.71.6

Other11740.6206001665051.003592901114.512.9

Poland2134.4603.52.61.5

Netherlands775.765755578.731611.01.5

Chile1347.034484.9241.71.2

Turkey19333982.41.0

Sweden479.4310713867323.96876471030.60.8

Belgium588.2340199161305.64314899370.70.8

Israel459.1297.280.60.8

Switzerland406.588095188262.78880972250.50.7

Finland266.92495225.16677750.30.6

Hungary383.679209.8070.50.5

Greece465.7378927018196.45297036250.60.5

Denmark284.940915178.72480.40.5

Czech Republic346.0854034733159.93419161210.40.4

Norway271.8157.40.30.4

New Zealand242.4148.60.30.4

Austria227.24517148.555850.30.4

Portugal375.53994.5840.50.2

Ireland354.347417588.42351750.40.2

Slovak Republic190.88276.68350.20.2

Estonia69.935477550.46103750.10.1

Slovenia91.462367541.57514750.10.1

Luxembourg30.067457512.37694750.00.0

Iceland16.02060757.421520.00.0

81212.04000016639158.4884229011

Chart1

20.4846072084United States

10.8850855119Japan

18.3447146506China

3.0503358862Germany

4.420428301United Kingdom

3.1397438114Canada

4.0588809245France

4.4820977284Brazil

3.5329613688Spain

1.9525984078Italy

3.8689645033Mexico

1.6341173058Australia

5.6887156141Korea

14.4567487778other

25-34-year-old population

USA, 20.5

UK, 4.4

Slovenia 0.0

Sheet1

CountryUnited StatesJapanChinaGermanyUnited KingdomCanadaFranceBrazilSpainItalyMexicoAustraliaKoreaother

25-34-year-old population20.510.918.33.14.43.14.14.53.51.95259840783.86896450331.63411730585.688715614114.5

raw dataraw dataraw data%%

2534556425345564

United States16635.967414004.0758320.535.8

Japan8840487010.912.4

China14898.1172717.05318.36.9

Germany2477.242461.043.16.3

United Kingdom3589.922080.8524.45.3

Canada2549.851638.1213.14.2

France3296.31386.64.13.5

Brazil3640.0031371.2344.53.5

Spain2869.19819.243.52.1

Italy1585.745744.3452.01.9

Mexico3142.065713.8983.91.8

Australia1327.16681.61.7

Korea4619.922633.0265.71.6

Other11740.6206001665051.003592901114.512.9

Poland2134.4603.52.61.5

Netherlands775.765755578.731611.01.5

Chile1347.034484.9241.71.2

Turkey19333982.41.0

Sweden479.4310713867323.96876471030.60.8

Belgium588.2340199161305.64314899370.70.8

Israel459.1297.280.60.8

Switzerland406.588095188262.78880972250.50.7

Finland266.92495225.16677750.30.6

Hungary383.679209.8070.50.5

Greece465.7378927018196.45297036250.60.5

Denmark284.940915178.72480.40.5

Czech Republic346.0854034733159.93419161210.40.4

Norway271.8157.40.30.4

New Zealand242.4148.60.30.4

Austria227.24517148.555850.30.4

Portugal375.53994.5840.50.2

Ireland354.347417588.42351750.40.2

Slovak Republic190.88276.68350.20.2

Estonia69.935477550.46103750.10.1

Slovenia91.462367541.57514750.10.1

Luxembourg30.067457512.37694750.00.0

Iceland16.02060757.421520.00.0

81212.04000016639158.4884229011

Future 18-22 year-old population by 2020

Source: UN Population Division, Oxford Economics (2011)

Growth in internationally mobile learnersThis growing pie represents a huge opportunity to help educate the next billionto build institutional capacityto develop world class institutions

But its not the answer to all HEs prayers

Sources: Altbach et al (2009) Trends in Global Higher Education: Tracking an Academic Revolution, UNESCO http://goo.gl/Khw2s; Opening Doors International mobility (2012) Institute of International Education (IIE) http://goo.gl/ohi19; The shape of things to come (2012) British Council http://goo.gl/ibeJq, Education at a glance (2012) OECD, http://goo.gl/u9LbT

Future 18-22 year-old population over time

Huge falls for China,South Korea, Russiaand Germany

Steady levels for the USA and Brazil

Steady growth for India

Source: UN Population Division, Oxford Economics (2011)

Asias changing population pyramidSource: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat

19902010

Changing market share (%) of foreign HE students enrolled, by destination, 2000-2010Source: Schleicher and OECD EAG (2012) ibid.

Other

Chart1

22.933281852416.6255563684

10.759654192612.9777795561

5.10453253866.5847260995

9.02685256136.4086286475

6.61619117146.3106305786

4.55611527724.7473635557

1.98893561063.9076213083

3.21468173293.4377016535

1.23081378162.3940507896

1.7561128641.8000511416

0.39624269261.7208709059

1.2031588411.6971344013

1.46633927981.6639499875

2.1900492891.5283846396

0.16279252161.4370956834

1.87257250071.336658733

1.25499375591.3085936823

0.67626706561.192934598

1.2330338991.0888317111

3.69972912156.3503925597

18.657649450715.4810433996

2000

2010

Sheet1

Country20002010

US22.9316.63

UK10.7612.98

Australia5.106.58

Germany9.036.41

France6.626.31

Canada4.564.75

Russia1.993.91

Japan3.213.44

Spain1.232.39

China1.761.80

New Zealand0.401.72

Italy1.201.70

Austria1.471.66

South Africa2.191.53

Korea0.161.44

Belgium1.871.34

Switzerland1.251.31

Netherlands0.681.19

Sweden1.231.09

Other OECD3.706.35

Other G20 / non-OECD18.6615.48

Other partner economies12.073304088310.4482224404

Particularly strong growth in vocational learner numbers in emerging countriesSource: The Education Advantage (2012) The Research Base http://goo.gl/o7AeS based on US Census Bureau, World Bank and UNESCO data

Different types of higher education around the world

Costs and graduation rates over timeUSSource: Schleicher and OECD EAG (2012) ibid. Cost per studentGraduate supply

Chart1

35.3527071024

3.9015167496

-20

-20

-20

28.450357645

0.5959547315

-20

2.2484657274

14.6609357233

10.814364493

-20

19.7426561561

-20

30.2937250019

37.459742351

17.0746642635

64.9120502295

-20

-20

22.612571951

20.6131292339

-20

6.2899386042

-20

3.4986208673

4.6023597961

-20

25.6247321873

6.4384707723

-20

-20

20.0495079688

62.5685153298

Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD)

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