1 2

www.theiet.org/sectors

IET Sector Insights

Industry experts think that political and societal factors are the main things that need to be addressed if rollout of low carbon vehicles (LCVs) is to increase substantially. Other factors such as economic and technological considerations are significant, but will not of themselves lead to rapid rollout. An approach which addresses the interaction of all these factors is required if LCV is to form a major part of any future transport strategy.

The StudyThe IET commissioned SAMI Consulting to conduct a study on the future of low carbon vehicles in the UK, eliciting views from a range of experts in the transport, engineering, design and foresight fields. These experts span across universities in the UK, Thailand and the US, transport studies groups, commercial organisations and the Technology Strategy Board. These views were structured into a “Natural Agenda” of Political, Economic, Societal and Technological factors plus global considerations. The views were solicited to help initiate the debate on the future of low carbon personalised road transport in the UK.

Essential Engineering Intelligence for Transport

The future rollout of Low Carbon Vehicles in the UKPolitical and societal factors are more important than technological and economic ones

“Nothing much will happen until the Government decides to push low carbon vehicles – it needs political drive.”

1 2Essential Engineering Intelligence for Transport

www.theiet.org/sectors

IET Sector Insights

www.theiet.org/sectors

Political issuesThe lack of political will to promote the use of low carbon vehicles is by far the most important issue according to experts. Without that will, we are unlikely to see substantial increase in LCV use in the next 15 years.

If this will existed, governments could do many things to improve the economic and technological barriers affecting rollout. For example, incentivising the use of LCVs through greater subsidies or prioritising LCVs through differential road pricing would improve the economic position of LCVs relative to traditional vehicles.

Encouraging dedicated LCV car share and car hire schemes and subsidies for large fleets of company cars would also be beneficial and the Government could use fiscal measures to achieve this. Alongside individual policies, the development of an inter-modal transport strategy is required, which encourages the use of LCVs for shorter journeys and rail for longer ones.

There is more generally a need to adopt an overall systems approach. Government leadership is needed to drive better integration of different transportation networks; in particular, to improve reliability and user information through an integrated national transport strategy.

Government could also improve the technological development of LCVs through research subsidies (particularly on battery technology), prioritising engineering education and generally promoting UK leadership in LCVs. It could also encourage private

sector research by setting more stringent but stable long-term emissions limits thereby guaranteeing a future market.

The experts however are pessimistic about the level of political will, identifying many issues that restrict it. The state of the economy takes priority over the promotion of green issues, the taxes and jobs derived from petrol vehicles are too valuable to put at risk and local politicians are mostly concerned about getting what jobs or growth they can whatever the implications for the environment. Manufacturers have substantial investments in traditional technology so they have limited incentives to move into the LCV market. In general, manufacturers are seen to lobby strongly to avoid tighter regulation. The interaction between Department for Transport, Department for Business Innovation and Skills and the Department of Energy and Climate Change is seen to be weak. There is also a lack of strong EU pressure to further incentivise the LCV market. In the current financial environment, the only way forward is if LCVs came to be seen as an important factor in driving economic growth. However some experts thought that, the need for energy security may drive Government to reduce UK dependency on oil.

The lack of political will is also due to the fact there is as yet no great public pressure for LCVs. Governments could perhaps create greater awareness through the allocation of (tradeable) personal carbon budgets, but will be reluctant to push too far ahead of public opinion in this area.

3 4

www.theiet.org/sectors

IET Sector Insights

www.theiet.org/sectors

Essential Engineering Intelligence for Transport

Societal factorsPatterns of car ownership and use determine how society views the acceptability of LCVs. The trend to multiple cars per household and moves towards smaller vehicles should make LCVs more acceptable, as this means that concerns over longer journeys could be overcome while concerns over range dissipate. Experts felt that people tend to buy a car suitable for the occasional longer trip, or for when extra capacity (people, luggage) is needed, rather than for more frequent shorter one-person journeys which are more typical.

Commuting patterns and the need to travel are also important. More people working from home reduces the number and distance of journeys overall. However, the trend to longer commuting distances and of out-of-town shopping centres increases the total miles travelled as part of each journey. Most journeys are however under the 100 mile range limit, the range of most LCVs. Good integration with improved public transport, providing easy interactions with road journeys, would also encourage greater use of LCVs for longer journeys.

Car hire and car share schemes offered some opportunities, but there is some debate about whether the car remains a status symbol and so the desire to own a car remains strong. Generation Y might not have the same attitude, being more accustomed to changing technology and approaches to their use.

Technological developments could help change attitudes, specifically over the questions of “range anxiety” and safety. An increasing use of LCVs in company fleets would generate a greater familiarity with their characteristics (and necessary changes in driving styles) and would also help overcome concerns.

Fundamentally, within the societal factors space, the major issue is that there is not yet a real awareness of the importance of the need to reduce CO2 emissions, and an attitude that climate change is “somebody else’s problem”. There is a need to create a similar revulsion to high emissions as there is to smoking – or as experts described it, the need to make it “cool” to be low emission.

Economic factorsThe purchase of LCVs is determined primarily by two factors: their relative price and their relative performance. It is also worth noting that the increase in the quality and therefore life-cycle of traditional vehicles over recent years means that there are many more older cars on the roads, as a result the evolution of the overall fleet is slower than before.

The relatively high up-front price of LCVs is clearly significant, though educating people to consider whole-life costs would be a way of reducing the barrier, especially in an era when petrol prices are rising

3 4

www.theiet.org/sectors

IET Sector Insights

www.theiet.org/sectors

Essential Engineering Intelligence for Transport

considerably. Very few people are willing to pay a premium upfront for “being green”.

As mentioned above, Government incentives would help, but the recession looks likely to limit the investment in radically new technologies and there is still considerable scope to improve the efficiency of conventional petrol engines. Manufacturers will only be reactive; they won’t drive the market.

LCVs also need to be seen to be as good as their petrol equivalents. The influence of shows like Top Gear with its emphasis on speed and performance could be detrimental to acceptability. In practice though, high power electric vehicles are perfectly possible. Conversely, some experts felt that if local authorities continued to introduce many more 20pmh limits, there would be a disincentive to have a high powered car.

The primary concern of motorists seems to be whether LCVs would have adequate range, though in practice 85% of existing journeys are less than 20 miles. This concern can be addressed both through a more extensive recharging infrastructure and more importantly through faster and more convenient recharging at home and at work (eg inductive charging). Battery exchange schemes will also have a role to play.

There are also concerns over safety. Car mechanics

will need specialised training to deal with new LCV technology. Crashes involving electric vehicles could cause leakage of battery acid and injure emergency services personnel. They will therefore need suitable training and equipment. Home charging of batteries could also pose a risk (eg of fire), and any bad press from early accidents would seriously inhibit demand. How insurance companies assess these risks and hence the premiums they impose will also be important.

An interesting development could be the creation of new business models for ownership which combine “ownership”, service, petrol etc. Peugeot have launched “Mu”, a “mobility solutions” plan, in which users rent vehicles appropriate for the journeys they are about take. With LCVs as one of the options, the concerns about suitability for long journeys or multi-person use could be overcome.

TechnologyOne over-riding issue identified is that electric and hybrid vehicles will only lead to a reduction in carbon emissions if electricity generation itself moves away from fossil fuels. The UK grid will not be carbon free within the next 20 years, and may lack the generator capacity for an increase in the use of LCVs, particularly plug-in electric vehicles. There will need to be improvements in the energy infrastructure, with smart grids for demand management and storage in the network.

5 6

IET Sector Insights

Essential Engineering Intelligence for Transport

www.theiet.org/sectorswww.theiet.org/sectors

The primary area for improvement is in battery technology. Faster re-charging (say 40 minutes rather than 8 hours), including induction charging for those without garages is needed. Also needed are improvements in battery life (bringing lower depreciation costs), and consideration of re-use and disposal issues. Nanotech and lithium oxide batteries are seen as the way forward though there are concerns over Chinese domination of rare earth metals. Hydrogen fuel cells do however show promise. There was some optimism from experts that the necessary technological developments were already being researched and that we would see major change within 7-10 years.

Batteries could be supplemented by flywheel energy storage systems. Carbon fibre technology enables flywheels that can rotate at around twice the speed of sound (1200mph) - prototypes using this type of technology are being developed. Improved materials leading to lighter, stronger bodywork would also improve the performance of electric vehicles.

An interesting area of technological development is the increased use of IT. Improved and easier to access information on available charging points and of links with public transport (timetables, parking) are obvious early

opportunities. Improved car hire booking schemes and associated payment systems could also improve rollout of LCVs. More advanced concepts of the “connected vehicle” and “platoons” of inter-linked vehicles travelling en masse are likely to be further off.

Global effectsClearly, as the motor manufacture industry is globalised, the rollout of LCV in the UK will be affected by developments elsewhere. Japanese expenditure on fuel cell technology is twice as much as that of the EU or USA.

The automobile market in the EU has become saturated and mature though in developing countries, especially China, there is still substantial growth. The developing countries may adopt new technologies much more quickly than we will here in the West. China is pouring money into private and university research on electric vehicles, advanced design and technology research, and primary R&D in transport.

The petrol price in North America will be a major factor. The US automobile industry had a major wake-up call over the last few years with the increased price of oil and gas and seem to be considering the transition to LCVs much more seriously.

5 6

IET Sector Insights

Industry experts say that technology is not the major issue affecting the rollout of LCVs the issue is more political and societal. “Government policy is needed to change behaviours”

Political will is lacking, as there are too many barriers and not enough demand from society until climate change concerns grow. “Climate change is someone else’s problem - it’s not me in my car”

Car hire and car sharing schemes can lead early take-up. Familiarity through use of LCVs in company fleets will also aid rollout. “If we could change consumer perception to owning their car, it would create a more conducive market for sharing/renting vehicles”

New models of ownership and patterns of use would make a significant difference, so that exceptional journeys (long-distance, high capacity) can be coped with more easily. “Lots of households have several vehicles – one for long journeys, others for local use”

Re-charging infrastructure and battery developments will ease range anxiety. “Battery technology is currently a limiting factor - need a step-change”. “Charging points needed - awful lot needs to be done; need a dense charging infrastructure for long distance travel”

Developments elsewhere in the world will significantly affect UK take-up, as car manufacture is a globalised industry. “The Japanese are backing electric and hybrid; BMW back hydrogen”

Leadership is needed to bring different transportation networks together into an overall integrated transport strategy. “There is a need for a NATIONAL integrated transportation network; currently every city approaches transportation differently. This creates difficulty for a reliable national network that reduces the need for people to drive long distances.”

Conclusions

www.theiet.org/transport-community

What do you think?If political will and societal impetus are lacking, then fundamental change in the rollout of LCVs will not come about. What could be the triggers for a major culture change affecting attitudes to carbon emissions? Will public acceptability ever be strong enough to overcome the inertia and bring about the political intervention needed for mass intervention of LCVs? Developing the scenarios in which these changes happen would be a powerful way forward to creating a common vision of a low carbon transport system.

The IET’s next step will be to develop a set of future scenarios with partners, looking at what the future of personalised LCVs is, in the UK. These scenarios will help to inform the development of LCVs across the political, economic, societal and technological spheres.

Paula-Marie Brown, Head of Transport Sector (IET) says,

“The results of this study highlight the need for a joined up industry and Government approach to developing a low carbon transportation infrastructure; the creation of the first IET standard on the Code of Practice for Electric Vehicle Charging Equipment Installation supports this.”

Photographs of electric motorsport bikes used by kind permission of TTXGP Ltd.Photographs of cars used by kind permission of Andrew Bissell, Sunamp Ltd and West Midlands CABLED project.

You can get involved by contributing your views on the Transport Sector community at

The IET is a world leading professional organisation sharing and advancing knowledge to promote science, engineering and technology across the world. The professional home for life for engineers and technicians, and a trusted source of essential engineering intelligence. The Institution of Engineering and Technology is registered as a Charity in England and Wales (No. 211014) and Scotland (No. SC038698). Michael Faraday House, Six Hills Way, Stevenage, Herts, SG1 2AY.