Speech: 10^7 bits TribesWriting: 10^11 bits City culturesPrinting: 10^17 bits Renaissance Industrial societyDigital: 10^25 bits ??? culture
Donald Robertson: New Renaissance
Take us prophets with a pinch of salt ”There is no reason for any individual to have a computer
in their home.” Ken Olson, President of DEC, World Future Society Convention, 1977
"You aren't going to turn passive consumers into active trollers on the Internet." Stephen Weiswasser, senior VP, ABC television, 1989
“Next Christmas the iPod will be dead, finished, gone, kaput.” Sir Alan Sugar, 2005
By 2015 one third of US fighting strength will be composed of robots US Department of Defense, 2006
“By 2015–2020 every South Korean household will have a robot and many European, “ The Ministry of Information and Communication (South Korea), 2007
When it comes to information society, science fiction has hit the mark much better But how about robotics? Popular culture has formed our attitudes and perceptions on robots and robotic society
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E.g. ”Brain pacer”
Science fiction has also inspired developers of ICT (True Names, Neuromancer, …)
Euro debt crises come and goTrue megatrends reshape our societies for good Climate change and environmental sustainability
– A growing part of economic growth is going to be used on emission control and adaptation to climate change
Global demographic change– The average Finnish age is about 40 years
• Half of Finnish voters using their vote are pensioners - a retired nation
– In developing countries the great generations are becoming adults
• Every third Egyptian is under 15 years of age Global networking and dependency
– The rise of BRIC countires to economic, cultural and military superpowers New technologies are reshaping our societies
– ICT now penetrates the structures of our society
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Finnish dependency ratio collapses … right about now
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People under 15 and over 65 years of age per 100 working age people
0-14 yr olds Over 65 yr olds
Megatrends converge, e.g. robot baby seals were used to comfort elderly Japanese who had lost everything in the tsunami
(NHK Video screenshot)
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Sea levels are not starting to rise
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Running out of … everything
With current usage we run out of (New Scientist) indium, terbium, hafnium and lead on this decade silver, tin, antimony and uranium on next decade Nickel, platinum, tantalum, zinc, chrome, copper and gold on this century
New technologies influence demand for raw materials E.g. fuel cells require loads of platinum
– Street dust is already “mined” for platinum falling off from car catalysers– 1,5 / 1.000.000 street dust particles can be platinum
Efficient solar cells would be on market if there were enough indium and gallium China has 95% of know reserves of rare earths and controls also African mines
– The civil war in Congo is a war to control local tantalum mines Past economic growth has been based on expanding
consumption of raw materials and energy Future growth has to be based on increasing raw material productivity China is already buying and storing electronic waste
Verace Sustainability Report 2006
Why make pulp and paper in Finland in the future…• from slowly growing expensive trees?• far away from still growing paper markets?• with Finnish labour costs?
Finland was one of the winners of globalization
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The World in 2050’s
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Of course economy does not develop linearly like this, but if it would:
• Asia returns back to the centre of the World
• Europe probably misses its chance to stay a world power and becomes a tourist attraction to Asians, Brazilians and Indians.
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Technology is our only change to prosperAdaptation to ageing population, global competition and climate change requires a productivity leap! Pioneers will reap the profits!
Digitalisation penetrates everything from exercise to housing Internet shopping, augmented reality, smart buildings, biosensors, …
Robotisation brings robots from factory floors to living rooms E.g. transportation and agriculture are going to become automated in 2020’s
Artificial intelligences automate mental jobs Stock market, journalism, social services, … IBM Watson has been opened for public use
3d-printing revolutionalises manufacturing Manufacturing, logistics and shopping change The role of design increases
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Digitalisation is only just beginning The steam engine invented in the late 17th
century revolutinalised economies and societies in the early 19th century Education, labour market, politics, economy, family, … E.g. schools are still following an industrial paradigm E.g. our immaterial property rights system with patents and copyrights
Digital technology invented on the 1940’s is now reshaping our societies and economies just as quickly and profoundly What is the home, school, work place, labour union, … of 2030’s like?
A child going to first grade is still working on 2080’s! And (s)he is not taught to use computers even in high schools
”A harvester is just a PC in a special box.””It is hard to find ppl with programming skills to operate harvesters.”
CC 3.0 SA BY Heikki Valve
Digitalisation penetrates work
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E.g. traffic becomes service Robot cars come to market by
year 2020 Volvo develops autonomous trucks Legislation and attitudes bigger challenges than technology
Car utilisation multiplies Only a third of the current number of cars is going to be needed Jobs in car manufacturing and selling diminish New jobs in vehicle AI development and ”mobility operator” business
Road investments are made for decades Forecasts are based on the assumption that people own and drive their cars New jobs needed for drivers and road builders
The logistic chain of Internet shopping reaches your home door New jobs required for salespeople New jobs creaded in logistics
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Robots come to our living rooms Teller machines have replaced bank clerks
Remember going to bank every otherday just to get some cash?
But are teller machines robots or just clever automatons?
Vacuum cleaners and lawn movers haven been replaced by simple single task robots Well defined limited tasks are the first to be taken over by AI’s
“Intelligent” washing machines analyze your laundry and autonomously decide how to wash it Intelligent appliances make smart homes
Robot police are coming to our streets But aren’t iRobot 510 PackBots just remote controlled machines?
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Robots are coming to our working places Productivity explosion corresponding to industrialisation
Stupid industrial jobs are going the way of stupid agricultural jobs In 20 years a third of current jobs will be replaced by AI’s and robots … and agricultural robots are remaking agriculture too
Totally new industries not viable with human labor E.g. automatic waste sorting
Appliances and machinery become autonomous and networked Your car tells your house that you are
coming home: Warm the sauna. Your Polar stress sensor informs the
fridge: Cool another beer.ZenRobotics Recycler is a true robot reacting to its environment instead of repeating preordained moves.
Aseta projectU
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If I were a farmer I would starttaking coding lessons right now
Media revolution Internet has already replaced television
Finns spend as much time in Internet as watching TV Watcher controlled ipTV replaces broadcast TV
E-readers replace newspapers and books Bookstores are facing the fate of record stores
Games have been a bigger industry than movies for 10 years Finnish game development industry needs 600 new employees every year.
Mail delivery is dvindling Paper bills and newspapers are disappearing Delivery of Internet shopping
New competency requirements Life management skills
Hot to fit work, family and life together
Competency management skills Life long updating of competencies
Knowledge management skills Information fatigue is a major occupational hazard in information society
What about ICT competencies? ICT competencies should be self evident citizen skills Even young people have trouble using computers for something else than social
media and gaming
Basic-Program ming
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Information society citizen skills Basic ICT use skills
Lacking in every age group Media reading and writing skills
Everybody can be a mass media Journalistic principles and amateur media
Data security skills You cannot trust even respected data security companies any more
Digital social capital How to be civil in social media
How and where do we learn these skills? Finland is one of the only countries in Europe where ICT is not compulsory at school
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Backslashes to be expected Early 19th century weaving machines were
1st generation industrial automation Industry, working life and society changed faster than
people and world economy were able to adapt
Resulting in violent luddite revolts Death penalty for destruction of a machine in the U.K.
In the economic race of companies andnations no-one can afford to take a breather and think Forerunner corporations and nations enjoy both the benefits and the risks
How do we direct a share of the productivity increase created with robots and AI’s into retraining, social benefits etc. that would soften the impact on people’s lives? … without hindering utilization of the possibilities of new technologies