The German Marshall Fund

of the United States

Perspectives on Trade and Poverty Reduction Survey 2006

Brussels - 5 December 2006

Methodology

• When? Between 5 and 25 September 2006

• Where? - United States- Six EU member states

(France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Slovakia, UK)

• How? Random sample of 1000 adults in each country. Weighted by demographic data. Telephone interview and face-to-face.

Positives

- Economic optimism up

- More favorable view of trade and globalization

Concerns

- Uneven benefits of trade

- Jobs and wages

- China

Policy priorities

- Skills and investment

- Aid (including aid for trade)

The German Marshall Fund of the United States Trade and Poverty Reduction Survey 2006

Outline

Economic ‘feel good factor’ remains low but trend is up

51%

30%

14%11% 12%

10%

41%

29%27% 26%

21% 20%

14%

20%

48%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

UK US

GermanyEuropeSlovakia

Poland FranceItaly

Satisfied, 2005 Satisfied, 2006

70% 70% 72%67% 66%

54%

83% 82%76% 75%

71%66%

57%65%64%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

Germany

Italy UK

Europe

US

Poland FranceSlovakiaFavorable, 2005 Favorable, 2006

Percentage of population more favorable toward

international trade compared

to last year

More favorable to trade this year than last…

13% 12% 4% 8% 5% 12% -1% n/a

51%47% 45% 46% 46%

34%

43%

61%

53% 53% 53% 52%49% 47%

41%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Italy UK

EuropeGermany

US

Poland FranceSlovakia

Favorable, 2005 Favorable, 2006

10% 6% 8% 7% 6% 15% 4% n/aPercentage of

population more favorable toward

globalization compared to last

year

…and more favorable to globalization

…but many ‘don’t knows’ on globalization

Overall Results

13%

35% 52%

Favorable, 2006Unfavorable, 2006Don't know

26%

25%49%

Favorable, 2006Unfavorable, 2006Don't know

18%

41%41%

Favorable, 2006Unfavorable, 2006Don't know

17%

31%52%

Favorable, 2006Unfavorable, 2006Don't know

United States

Poland Slovakia

Consensus on benefits of trade

…enables your countries’ businesses to access new markets for national

products?

…leads to lower prices and more product choices for consumers?

…makes the world more stable by putting people from different

countries in contact with each other?

Do agree that freer trade…

71%

78%

78%

72%

76%

82%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

United States Europe

Belief in a link between trade and democracy in developing countries

67% 66% 65%58% 58%

49% 47% 45%

26%21% 21%

25% 28%

14% 17%

49%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Germany

UK US ItalyEuropePolandSlovakiaFrance

Freer tradestrengthens supportfor democraticinstitutions

Freer trade weakenssupport fordemocraticinstitutions

73% 70% 67%63% 63% 61% 61%

55%

25%21%

28% 31% 34%28%

36% 38%

0%10%

20%30%

40%

50%60%

70%80%

Germany

UK

EuropeSlovakia

ItalyPoland France

US

Favorable Unfavorable

Contrasting views on foreign inward investment

Who benefits from trade?

55%

57%

70%

82%

82%

53%

55%

56%

83%

83%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

You personally

People in your country

People in poor countries

People in rapidly developing countries likeChina and India

Multinational companies

United States Europe

Positives

- Economic optimism up

- More favorable view of trade and globalization

Concerns

- Uneven benefits of trade

- Jobs and wages

- China

Policy priorities

- Skills and investment

- Aid (including aid for trade)

The German Marshall Fund of the United States Trade and Poverty Reduction Survey 2006

Outline

China: more threat than opportunity

70% 67% 66% 65%59% 59%

53%

44%

26%18%

28%22%

34% 33%

43%48%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

France PolandItaly

SlovakiaEurope

US

Germany

UK

The Chinese economy represents a threat

The Chinese economy represents an opportunity

France and America are leading trade skeptics (1)

12%

19%

24%

28%

30%

32%

35%

0% 20% 40% 60%

Slovakia

Poland

UK

Italy

Germany

US

France

Foreign investments in your country result in job losses

39%

44%

48%

50%

51%

58%

59%

0% 20% 40% 60%

Poland

UK

Italy

Slovakia

Germany

France

US

Freer trade costs more jobs than it creates

66%

56%52% 51%

46% 45% 42%46%

33% 35%

43% 43%44%

43%45%

48%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

FranceUS

GermanyEurope

UK ItalyPolandSlovakia

Keep trade barriers to protect jobs Lower trade barriers to boost growth

France and America are leading trade skeptics (2)

Transatlantic worries on energy security

42%

44%

45%

46%

84%

46%

35%

54%

36%

77%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

United States Europe

Oil and gas

Food

Cars and other manufactured goods

Clothing and textiles

Computers, electronics and other high technology goods

Continental fears over trade and food quality and variety

72%65%

57% 57%

47%43% 42%

39%

50%55%

44%37%36%

32%25%

42%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

FranceGermany

ItalyEuropeSlovakiaPoland

US UK

Freer trade reduces food quality and variety

Freer trade increases food quality and variety

Immigration seen as bad for wages

64%58%

50%

43%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

US

Europe

Unskilled workers

Skilled workers

Do you agree or disagree that the immigration of workers reduces the wages of your country’s unskilled/skilled workers (% agree)?

…but benefits to the economy

20%

35%

53%

55%

66%

44%

66%

52%

27%

43%

50%

54%

54%

57%

61%

62%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Slovakia

Poland

France

Europe

Germany

Italy

UK

US

Immigrant workerscreate newbusinesses that addvalue to the economy

Immigrant workerscontribute to thesuccess of industrieslike science,medicine, andtechnology

Positives

- Economic optimism up

- More favorable view of trade and globalization

Concerns

- Uneven benefits of trade

- Jobs and wages

- China

Policy priorities

- Skills and investment

- Aid (including aid for trade)

The German Marshall Fund of the United States Trade and Poverty Reduction Survey 2006

Outline

Shared views on how to face global economic challenges

53%

63%

68%

70%

94%

95%

46%

64%

72%

79%

93%

93%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

United States Europe

Invest in education and job training

Reduce taxes and regulation for businesses

Invest in new technologies

Make it easier for companies to hire and fire workers

Reduce barriers to international trade

Encourage foreign investment in your country

62%

53%47% 45%

36% 35% 34%35%39%

34%

48%

60%64%

51%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Germany

USPoland

UK ItalyFrance Slovakia

Helpful Not helpful

Do you think that making it easier for companies to hire and fire workers will be helpful or not helpful to your country’s economy?

Mixed views on ‘flexible labor markets’

3% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 4%4% 3% 7% 5% 2% 6%

8%4%

4%10%

4%6%

7%

17%6% 10%

8%

9% 8%10%

8%

16%20%

22% 31%45%

42%

38%

67% 62%52% 50%

38% 34%25%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

PolandItaly UK

SlovakiaFranceGermany

US

The government

The company that lays offthe workers

Unions

Workers themselves

Don’t know/Refuse/Other

Charities and NGOs

Trade-related job losses: who picks up the pieces?

‘Aid for trade’ is a win-win

72% 74%

20% 17%

0%10%20%

30%40%

50%60%70%

80%

US

Europe

Providing aid that helpspoor countries trade willhelp our country’sbusinesses

Providing aid that helpspoor countries trade willhurt our country’sbusinesses

16%

37%

37%

34%

18%

30%

51%

56%

6%

27%

31%

33%

34%

38%

57%

66%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Gaining political allies

Contributing to global stability

Preventing breeding grounds for terrorism

Helping with natural disaster relief

Helping poor countries trade

Encouraging democracy

Fighting health problems like AIDS

Alleviating poverty

United States Europe

…but top aid priorities are still poverty and health

Read more…

(1) Key findings report

(2) Top line data

(3) Raw data available