The Global FutureSteady progress or cataclysmic change?

Pete O’DellPete.odell@swanisland.netwww.swanisland.net

Context

Suspend belief – forget obstacles for todayWorld, national, local viewsFuture discussion and vision Framework Trends Emerging markets The “Next Big Thing”

“Where there is no vision, the people perish”

Proverbs 29:18

Food for thought….ancient to present day

“Economically, the Internet is just like electricity. First, it’s new and exciting. Then it steadily transforms your economy…Decades later nobody would think to call it the electricity economy. It’s just there.”--Robert E. Litan, Economic Studies, Brookings Institute

“Today, [we] are functionally linked together in a vast organic system…The earth [is] not only becoming covered by myriads of grains of thought, but becoming enclosed in a single thinking envelope.” --Teilhard de Chardin, 1925

“There is nothing permanent except change.” – --Heraclitus (540 – 480 B.C.)

The Dimensional Model of progress

0 dimension – conflict among hunter/gatherer tribes – stay away!1st dimension – trade along natural routes – river valleys, spice routes2nd dimension – sailing ships, trains, automobiles 3rd dimension – air travel, air cargo4th dimension – wired, electronic skin around the world starting with the telegraph & telephoneDecreasing time between each dimensionIs there a 5th dimensionSource: Brave New World – William Knoke (recommended reading!)

A look in the rear-view mirror….

Where were you: December 31, 1999 September 11, 2001

What’s happened since then?Would you go back if you could?What has disappeared in your lifetime (telegraph, memos, telex)

Scenarios – next 30 years:

Upward growth spiral: despite terror, localized conflicts and business cycles, the world marches forward, gaining momentum (as it has since pre-historic time)Worldwide stagnation: Innovation and economies flatten after an amazing 25 years (Dark Ages lasted several lifetimes)Worldwide recession/depression: World goes into an economic tailspin for an extended period (the Great Depression of the 30’s)Doomsday: Armageddon, famine, war, the works (SARS gave us a quick look at this)

The World at a crossroad

The US/world at war with terrorismWorldwide economic slowdown (recovery?)What about China?Subprime mortgage meltdown big concernInternet & telecom bubble a distant memoryCan the world absorb Moore’s law?US the one legitimate super-power, but under extreme world pressureGlobal have’s and have-not’sProblem spread increasing – disease/famine (persistent) to ID/IP theft (emerging)

Intertwined worldwide issues

EnergyFood/waterHealth/diseaseGlobal warmingPollutionLanguagesTrade blocksIntellectual property

Terrorism/securityEducationPopulation growthAging populationsReligionPoliticalStandardsParadoxes abound

Over-arching trends

Shrinking world (globalization/communications)Rapid adoption for winners (Internet, cellular, DVD, digital cameras)Getting more from less (oil, silicon, acreage, E-Bay)24 x 7 world - speeding up, information overloadEnglish gaining as worldwide languagePower shifting to the individual - global middle class, very hard to control information, spawning more democratic governmentsContradictions abound – free/controlled, rich/poor, fat/hungry, engaged/disenchanted

The Information Age:Human Capital/Intellectual Property

Few physical resources needed – clean, high paying jobsSmall groups can build global productsSmall groups can destroy worldwide (virus)Bits versus Atoms EFT versus cement blocks Napster versus Compact Disks

Virtuous upward spirals

Business trends

Increased productivity & offshore outsourcingMass customization and localizationMerger of the titans, buy versus build (HP/Compaq, AT&T/ComCast )Innovation in small companiesIntense drive to streamline and retool operations - little complacencyRapid product obsolescenceEconomies of scale are a curse and blessingGlobal companies bigger than countries

Technology trends

Digital convergence – data, voice, videoInternet/WWW connected Moore’s law marches on – faster, better, cheaper – chips, storage, & moreWireless – all shapes and flavors Open source software movementSecurity an increasingly important trend

Internet trends

Great for publishing documents to peopleE-Bay, Mapquest, Amazon, YahooNo end in sight for global adoptionWireless access – mobile informationBroadband growing, phone access the normXML (eXtensible Markup Language) Web Services and Web 2.0 have great promiseStill fragile, frustrating and immature – groaning under the weight of success

Emerging technology today

Personal Digital Assistants (PDA) and SmartphonesRFID and embedded sensorsFuel cells – alternative energyHome networkingKnowledge managementSocial networkingBlogging/Life Recording

The Next Big Thing (NBT)

Alters the course of mankind – significant impactDifficult to predict and understand at the onset – many times fits and starts before taking offGenerational deployment & incremental improvementEarly civilizations: Fire, wheel, metal, agriculture, writing, numbersAdvancing civilizations: gunpowder, compass, printing, interchangeable parts, steam engine, bill of rightsRecent: Indoor plumbing, medicine, electricity, automobile, airplane, radio, telephone, television, computingCollaboration and worldwide knowledge one reason for accelerating pace

Nano-technology – NBT?

Really, really smallSimple - eat escaped oil in oceanComplex - eat cholesterol from arteries of a living beingSensors – watch for individual cancer cellsSelf replication – clone more of the samePhysics: Silicon stronger than steel at the molecular level

The Hydrogen Economy–NBT?

Alternative to imported oilLimitless supplyIdeal for fuel cellsCombustion by-product is waterManufactured by extra electricity passing through waterMassive infrastructure change requiredFixed buildings versus cars!

Biotechnology – NBT?

Non-human Genetically engineered crops – salt water rice, drought

resistant cotton Cloning and manipulation of animals/pets Potential to solve many of the world’s problems Fraught with regulation and protest

Human Genome mapping Cloning and stem cell research debates Genetic manipulation – cure cancer, AIDS, others Extended lifespan through lab based organ creation? “All my kingdom for a moment of time” - Queen

Elizabeth

NBT Discussion

Additional candidates? Mind to network link – brain based Google Unmanned space exploration Ubiquitous wireless computing

Realistic? Barriers? Enablers?Timeframe for implementation?Impact on society?Should there be a NBT X prize?

Parting Thoughts

What does all this mean to you?What actions will you take?

Ignore Invest Embrace

How do you manage the risks?What about your great-grandkids?

Questions?Reactions?

Pete.odell@swanisland.net