1

The Global Ocean Observing System and the Southern

Ocean

2

3

Shepherd et al, Science, 2003

September 2005

4

THE EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION

5

ZIMBABWE MAIZE YEILD AND EL NIÑOZIMBABWE MAIZE YEILD AND EL NIÑO

6

EL NIÑO AND HEALTH RISKS: MALARIAEL NIÑO AND HEALTH RISKS: MALARIA

7

NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO)

8

NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION AFFECTS NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION AFFECTS ZOOPLANKTON (CALANUS)ZOOPLANKTON (CALANUS)

9

Circum-Antarctic Wave

Red = warm; blue = cool; grey = ice edgeT = wind stress, stretching and compressing ice extent

10

GOOS, the Global Ocean Observing System is:

A sustained, coordinated international system for gathering data about the oceans and seas of the earth

A system for processing the data to enable the generation of beneficial products and services

The research and development upon which such products and services depend for their improvement

11

Observing the Global Ocean

Sustained observations of the Ocean are required for:

Understanding global change Predicting climate Protecting and managing marine ecosystems Complying with international agreements Protecting life and property on the coast and at sea Providing forecasts of its future states for a variety

of uses and users.

12

Policy Drivers

Meeting IOC and WMO Resolutions. Meeting Agenda 21 and WSSD requirements. Abiding by UNCLOS. Straddling and Highly Migratory Fish Stocks. Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS). UNFCCC (Climate Change). Biodiversity - Jakarta Mandate Ramsar - Wetlands Stockholm - Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) Regional Conventions (UNEP; OSPAR, etc) GEOSS and the G8.

13

Operational SystemSustained, Routine, User-Driven, End-to-End

Analysis, Modelling

Data Communications & Management

Monitoring

Products

GOOS

14

Schematic of the vertical stack of observations from satellites to seabed that would be necessary to inform an iAOOS study focused on the present state and future fate of the Arctic perennial sea-ice.

15

1100

87

32

3000

14

32

670

80

79

26

1000

250

45

79

26

250

45

77

24

250

40

1050

83

29

2000

24

430

55

1200

94

41

3000

29

120

38

760

7

86

1250

99

41

3000

29

150

40

820

10

86

1250

99

41

3000

29

150

40

820

10

86

1250

99

41

3000

29

150

40

820

9

86

1150

90

36

3000

16

80

36

700

6

86

77

23

250

40

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20062005 2007 2008 2009 2010

Tide GaugesOperational GPS/DORISStations

Surface Drifting Buoys

Tropical Moored Buoys

Ships of Opportunity

Argo Floats

Reference Stations

Coastal Moorings

System Evaluation

Ocean Carbon Network

Dedicated Ship Time

High resolution and frequentlyrepeated lines occupied

Number of floats

Number of moorings

Number of buoys

Days at sea (NOAA contribution)

Product evaluation andfeedback loops implemented

Number of flux sites/lines,One inventory per 10 years

Number of flux moorings

Moorings with climate sensors

807 671 779 810

200 310 544

1 2 6 7 10

0 150 0 0 40

14 16 18 20

0 1 1 1

774894 1001009988Total System 30 34 40 44

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20062005 2007 2008 2009 2010

System % Complete

3 4

The Ten-Year Plan for In-situ Observations

16

WE CAN NOW OBSERVE THE SEA SURFACE GLOBALLY &

SYNOPTICALLY.

17

We have limited ability to observe beneath the surface of the ocean.

6,316 BATHY & TESAC reports collected

in real time during

December, 2000.

18

Argo will cover the global oceans with 3,000 profiling floats.

19

2154 Argo floats by 24 Nov 2005

20

Drifting Buoy Programme

21

The Global Sea-level Observing System (GLOSS)

22

Antarctic Peninsula

Warming • Annual mean temp increase

3 °C in the last 50 years the largest warming in the SH.

• Sea ice decrease.• Precipitation increase.• Strong ENSO linkages.• Changes in water masses on

the continental shelf.• What are the contributions

of natural climate variability and anthropogenic forcing?

-16

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0 1978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999

Temperature

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

Mean ice concentration

Temp Conc

23

Upper Tropospheric Height Anomalies Associated with El Nino Events

Rossby Wave connection

The PSA signal is less robust than the PNA because of the strength of the Southern Hemisphere

westerlies

The link to El Niño

24

0.17°C warming between 1950s-80s at

700-1100m depthDouble the global Ocean rate;

Concentrated in ACC;

Matches SH atmosphere;

Could influence sea ice

Gille, 2002

25

Warming of Weddell Sea WDW

Warm Deep Water flowing into and out of the Weddell Sea has warmed by about 0.3C since the mid-1970’s.

(Robertson et al., 2002)

Atlantic freshwater changes

“… suggest links to global warming and possible changes in the hydrologic cycle of the Earth.”

saltier fresherfresher

27

Regional change

Changes in winter sea ice duration

(Parkinson 2002 Ann Glaciol 34, 2002)

Antarctic Peninsula region. One of the most rapidly warming regions on the planet

28

Atkinson et al (2004)

Circumpolar distribution of

krill

No. krill /m2

0

< 2

2-4

4-8

8-16

16-32

32-64

64-128

128-256

>256

no data

Euphausia superba

29

19761978198019821984198619881990199219941996199820002002

Year

Density (no. m-2)

1

10

100

1000

Declining krill population

Biodiversity Change

Atkinson et al, 2004

Increasing salps

30

Southern Ocean CO2 (red = sink)

31

Ocean acidification: Fossil CO2 is invading the ocean

ATLANTIC

PACIFIC

INDIAN

32

Southern Ocean Circulation

33

Southern Ocean Observing System Hydrographic Sections

Rintoul et al

CLIVAR/CliC/SCARSO Implementation

Panel

34

Under-Ice Observing System

HAFOS(Fahrbach)

MooringsSurface DriftersUnder-Ice Floats

35

Thermohaline Circulation links Asia

Antarctica

36

Antarctica and the Global Climate System

(SCAR)Use: deep and shallow ice cores, satellite data, global and regional coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models meteorological and oceanic data

Assess: • role of ENSO in modulating Antarctic climate;

• recent climate variability;;

• climate change over the next 100 years;

• how climate change in the Antarctic influences conditions elsewhere

IPY:

test models and high-low latitude climate links;

carry out a major bi-polar shallow ice drilling programme.

37

GODAEGODAE

Objective:Objective: practical demonstration of real-time, global ocean data assimilation for operationaloperational oceanography

The ocean observing system for climate - St Raphael, October 1999

To apply state-of-the-art ocean models & assimilation methods for:

-- short-range open-ocean forecasts

-- boundary conditions for coastal forecasts

-- initial conditions for climate forecast models

To provide global ocean analyses and re-analyses to improve our:

-- understanding of the oceans

-- assessments of the predictability of ocean systems

-- the design & effectiveness of the global ocean observing system

GLOBAL OCEAN DATA ASSIMILATION EXPERIMENT

38GODAE, Biarritz – 13 June, 2002

Sea Surface Temperature

Sea Surface Temperature

Salinity at 1000 mdepth

Salinity at 1000 mdepth

Sea SurfaceHeight

Sea SurfaceHeight

MERCATOR Bulletin for June 19, 2002 : how is the ocean next week ?

39Polar Research BoardPolar Research Board

U.S. National Academy of SciencesU.S. National Academy of Sciences

For PDF version, For PDF version, google “PRB AON“google “PRB AON“

40

AON Essential Functions(i.e., essential to all participants)

41

Thank you