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The good, the bad and the ugly: Climate change’s potential impact on farmers in Africa Global Landscapes Forum Warsaw, Poland 16 November 2013
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The good, the bad and the ugly: Climate change’s
potential impact on farmers in Africa
Global Landscapes ForumWarsaw, Poland
16 November 2013
Sepo [email protected]
www.fanrpan.orgFood, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network (FANRPAN)
Scientific research has changed the
world Now it needs to
change itself
A SIMPLE idea underpins science:
“trust, but verify”
Only 14% of published papers
www.fanrpan.orgFood, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network (FANRPAN)
Welcome to the Anthropocene!
50% increase (Btw 2000 and 2050)mostly in developing
countries
3.3 million deaths from
natural hazards in the 40 years
to 2010
Over 400,000 deaths from climate extremes since 2000 with 79% in developing countries
www.fanrpan.orgFood, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network (FANRPAN)
Crop yield changes
Zinyengere , Crespo and Hachigonta., 2013
www.fanrpan.orgFood, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network (FANRPAN)
Transforming Data into Information and Policy
• Uncertainties
• Evidence
• Modeling
• Limitations
• Uncertainty
• Interpretation
• Etc
www.fanrpan.orgFood, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network (FANRPAN)
Climate information at a local scale
www.fanrpan.orgFood, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network (FANRPAN)
Costing the Impacts of Climate Change
www.fanrpan.orgFood, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network (FANRPAN)
Livelihood Vulnerability
www.fanrpan.orgFood, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network (FANRPAN)
THE HVI AND THE LIVELIHOOD CAPITAL ASSETS
www.fanrpan.orgFood, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network (FANRPAN)
Household Vulnerability
Low vulnerability Moderate vulnerability High vulnerability
www.fanrpan.orgFood, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network (FANRPAN)
Multi-Disciplinary approach
www.fanrpan.orgFood, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network (FANRPAN)
www.fanrpan.orgFood, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network (FANRPAN)
Communicate climate science and impacts including
uncertainties
www.fanrpan.orgFood, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network (FANRPAN)
Research for Impact
www.fanrpan.orgFood, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network (FANRPAN)
Promote and support strategies for out-scaling proven technologies;
Develop practical research and innovation Integrate climate change into mainstream national
agricultural development policy and planning processes; Extension services (public and non-public) need
foundation training to acquire core proficiencies in CSA from management levels
Engage stakeholders when generating research evidence
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