The Greek Climate Change Action Plan

contents, way to implement, monitor and outputs of application of mitigation measures set in

CAPACITY BUILDING IN BALKAN COUNTRIES IN ORDER TO DEAL WITH CLIMATE CHANGE PROBLEM

Brief history

1992: United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change 1994: Ratification of the UNFCCC by the Greek Parliament.

Preparation of the 1st Greek Climate Change Action Plan and submission to the UNFCCC of the 1st National Communication.

The Greek government taking into consideration both economic and social parameters, agreed that a realistic objective for Greece is the restriction of the overall increase of GHG emissions to 15 3%.

1997: Submission to the UNFCCC of the 2nd Greek National Communication.

1997: Kyoto Protocol 2001: Preparation of the 2nd Greek Climate Change Action Plan

and the 3rd National Communication.

±

Greece is going to ratify Kyoto Protocol before June 2002

Obligations of all EU countries for the reduction of the emissions of 6 GHG in the period 2008-2012 compared to 1990 levels

Austria -13%Belgium -7%Denmark -21.5%Finland 0%France 0%Germany -21.5%Greece +25%Ireland +14%Italy -6.5%Luxembourg -28%Netherlands -6%Portugal +28%Spain +15%Sweden +5%United Kingdom -12.5%

Steps for developing the NAP and the NC

Establishing a National Climate Committee

Establishing a Project Steering Committee

Creating a Climate Change Team

Developing work plan

National Climate Committee - Responsibilities

Overseeing of the National Policy and the implementation of the FCCC

Overseeing of all the climate change related projects, programs and research activities

Ensuring the consistence of the climate change policies and the national development priorities

Ensuring the information of all the stakeholders Developing the negotiating positions and strategies for the Country Reviewing and finalizing the various components of the NC

Project Work plan

Development of Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventory

Development of baseline scenario for Greenhouse Gas Emissions.

Greenhouse Gas Abatement Analysis

Vulnerability and adaptation assessment

Preparation of National Communication

Preparation of National Communication

Preparation of the draft National Communication

Circulation of the draft NC

Finalisation of the draft NC

Submission of the draft NC to national government

Finalisation, translation and publication of the NC

Submission of the initial NC to the UNFCC Secretariat

Total GHG emissions in Greece (in kt of CO2 eq) for the period 1990-1999

Gases 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997† 1998† 1999†

CO2 85.599,5 84.562,0 86.868.,7 87.520,2 88.616,6 87.778,2 90.207,9 93.829,2 101.761,6 98.646,0 CH4 9.454,8 9.479,2 9.716,9 9.764,0 9.932,6 9.998,5 10.297,0 10.439,3 10.906,5 10.782,9 N2O 10.371,2 10.260,3 10.195,0 9.899,7 10.013,0 9.714,8 10.098,7 10.238,9 10.420,0 10.246,4 HFCs 935,1 1.106,8 908,4 1.606,6 2.143,9 3.253,1 3.746,3 3.960,2 3.744,0 3.744,0 PFCs 367,4 315,2 221,6 129,7 82,2 77,9 74,4 64,0 54,2 32,0 Total 106.728,0 105.723,5 107.910,6 108.920,2 110.788,3 110.822,4 114.424,3 118.531,5 126.886,3 123.451,4 Index * 98,1 97,2 99,2 100,2 101,9 101,9 105,2 109,0 116,7 113,5

* As base for the calculation of the increase of emissions in kt of CO2 equivalent, was considered the sum of the three GHG emissions for the year 1990 plus the emissions of HFCs, PFCs for the year 1995 (108.756,5 kt)

† Provisional data

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1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

-5%

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Energy Industrial Processes Solvents

Agricuture Waste Cumulative % change

Comparison with other EU countries

Carbon dioxide emissions from Energy per inhabitant in the European Union

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EU AU BE DK FS FR GE GR IE IT LU NL PT SP SW UK

1990 1995 1997t CO2 / inhabitant

Carbon dioxide emissions from Energy per unit of GDP in the European Union

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EU AU BE DK FR FS GE GR IE IT LU NL PT SP SW UK

1990 1995 1997

kt CO2 / MECU 1990

Energy projections: Basic assumptions• The ENPEP model has been used.• The study covers the period 1995-2020.• It is assumed that the population will increase with an average annual rate of 0.34% during the

period 2000-2020. The average household size is assumed to decrease by approximately 1% for the same time period .

• Regarding GDP, the average annual rate of growth for the period 2000-2005 is estimated to be approximately 4.3%, while this growth rate falls to 3.4% during the years 2005-2010. In the period after 2010 the annual economic expansion growth is projected to be around 3%.

• The following assumptions were adopted for the international fuel prices included in the analysis:– Solid fuel prices will remain at 1997 levels during the study period.– For oil prices the results obtained running the International Futures model for Greece have been used.

According to these results, oil prices will increase slightly during the study period reaching a price of 21.06 $1997/bbl in 2020.

– Natural gas prices will follow the fluctuations of oil prices.

• The current energy taxation system is maintained.• The formulated Business as Usual Scenario takes into account the existing and already decided

relevant policies and measures (e.g. liberalization of the electricity market, agreement between EU and ACEA for reduction of fuel consumption in new cars, etc.)

Energy projections: Baseline gross inland consumption (ktoe)

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 1995/2000 2000/2010 2010/2020 Solid fuels 8386 8756 8894 9192 9462 9672 0.87% 0.49% 0.51% Liquid fuels 14117 15981 17023 18353 19441 20651 2.51% 1.39% 1.19% Renewables 1152 1350 1308 1355 1434 1606 3.22% 0.04% 1.72% Natural gas 49 1732 3653 5148 6672 8036 104.01% 11.51% 4.55% Electricity 69 -0.9 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Total 23773 27817 30880 34048 37009 39966 3.19% 2.04% 1.62%

Renewables penetration 4.85% 4.85% 4.24% 3.98% 3.87% 4.02% 0.03% -1.97% 0.10% Energy intensity (ktoe/Mill Euro 2000)

0.23 0.23 0.21 0.19 0.18 0.17 -0.12% -1.81% -1.30%

Per capita energy consumption (toe/cap)

2.26 2.56 2.77 2.99 3.20 3.42 2.53% 1.57% 1.36%

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1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

GDP Gross inland consumtion

Per capita energy consumption Energy intensity

Energy projections: Final energy demand

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1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

ktoe

Agriculture Industry Residential Tertiary Transport

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1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

ktoe

Solid fuels Liguid fuels Electricity Thermal energy Renewables Natural gas

Energy projections: Electric sector

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1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Lignite Oil Natural gas Hydro Wind Other RES

ktoe

Electricity generation from different categories of power units

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Total 9371 11244 14182 15648 17374 19203 Lignite 4533 4900 5210 5210 5210 5210 Oil 2287 2069 2293 2557 2745 2960 Natural gas 1142 2799 3691 4879 5963

Utilities 1107 2497 2947 3847 4747 Industrial auto-producers 0 190 549 778 918

Co-generation 35 112 195 253 298 Hydro 2524 2959 3369 3369 3369 3369 Wind 27 174 511 821 1171 1701 Other RES 0 0 0 0 0 0

Installed capacity (MW)

Evolution of GHG emissions in Greece (kt CO2 eq)

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Energy sector - combustion

79859

83354

98726

106636

115677

123930

131951

CO2 76474 79778 94434 102083 110838 118866 126647

CH4 316 342 433 403 395 393 400

N2O 3069 3233 3860 4150 4445 4671 4904

Energy sector - fugitive emissions 931 1032 1099 1157 1218 1266 1310

CH4 931 1032 1099 1157 1218 1266 1310

Industrial processes 9699 11736 12171 12265 12362 12462 12565 CO2 7684 7840 7832 7925 8022 8122 8226 N2O 713 564 567 567 567 567 567

HFCs 935 3253 3744 3744 3744 3744 3744 PFCs 367 78 28 28 28 28 28

Solid wastes 2811 3595 4767 3927 2487 2542 3737

CH4 2811 3595 4767 3927 2487 2542 3737

Municipal waste water 938 828 552 115 55 57 57

CH4 938 828 552 115 55 57 57

Agriculture 10447 9722 10237 9729 9654 9580 9476

CH4 3627 3646 3572 3591 3578 3566 3555

N2O 6820 6076 6665 6138 6076 6014 5921

Total 104684 110266 127553 133829 141453 149835 159097

Index (base year =100)

98.1 103.3 119.5 125.4 132.6 140.4 149.1

Sectoral evolution of GHG emissions in Greece (kt CO2 eq)

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1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

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Energy sector - combustion Energy sector - fugitive emissions

Industrial processes Solid wastes

Municipal wastewater Agriculture

The Greek NAP – an overview

• Major potential– Power generation sector

– Building sector

– Restructuring of the chemical industry

• Emission abatement technical potential (up to 2010):– 17314 kt CO2 eq

• Realistic estimation of GHG emissions abatement, taking into account more conservative implementation degrees as well as the synergies between the various interventions under consideration (up to 2010):– 11372 kt CO2 eq

Building sector

Measure Emissions (kt CO2 eq)

Improvement of the thermal behavior of the buildings 106

Maintenance / replacement of diesel heaters 191

External shading, ventilation, etc. 57

Use of high efficiency equipment (air conditioning, appliances, light bulbs) 1874

Use of automated lighting systems 23

Solar collectors (water heating, space-water heating) 1302

Roof top photovoltaic systems 8

District heating (biomass) 318

Use of NG for space heating and cooling 188

TOTAL 4066

Transport sector

Measure Emissions (ktn CO2 eq)

Maintenance of private vehicles and LDT 76

Use of NG buses 2

Improvements of road signaling 58

Development of the public transports 461

Soft interventions in the transport sector

Promotion of biofuels 319

TOTAL 916

Power generation sector

Measure Emissions (ktn CO2 eq)

Use of RES 4027

• Wind energy 1850

• Small hydro 1033

• Central photovoltaic units 21

• Geothermal energy 50

• Biomass

Use of Natural gas 3350

Cogeneration with Natural Gas 222

TOTAL 7599

Industrial sector

Measure Emissions (ktn CO2 eq)

Use of natural gas 163

Use of solar energy 340

Use of biomass 46

Various energy conservation measures

238

TOTAL 787

Non – energy sectors

Measure Emissions (ktn CO2 eq)

Manure management 62

Ecological cultivations 43

Flaring landfill gas 98

Restructuring of chemical industry

3744

TOTAL 3947

Evolution of GHG emissions in Greece and the Kyoto Protocol

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105

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115

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135

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145

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Total emissions - BaUTotal emissions - w ith measuresEmissions from the energy sector - BaUEmissions from the energy sector - w ith measuresKyoto target

Criteria for evaluation of measures (1)

GHG and Other Environmental Considerations

• GHG reduction potential (Tons of carbon equivalent)

• Other environmental considerations– Percentage change in emissions of other gases/particulates

– Biodiversity, soil conservation, watershed management, indoor air quality, etc.

Criteria for evaluation of measures (2)

Economic and Social Considerations

• Cost-effectiveness– Average and marginal costs

• Project-level considerations– Capital and operating costs, opportunity costs, incremental costs

• Macro-economic considerations– GDP, jobs created or lost, effects on inflation or interest rates, implications

for long-term development, foreign exchange and trade, other economic benefits or drawbacks

• Equity considerations– Differential impacts on countries, income groups or future generations

Criteria for evaluation of measures (3)

Administrative, Institutional and Political Considerations

• Administrative burden– Institutional capabilities to undertake necessary information collection,

monitoring, enforcement, permitting, etc.

• Political considerations– Capacity to pass through political and bureaucratic processes and sustain

political support

– Consistency with other public policies

• Replicability– Adaptability to different geographical and socio-economic-cultural

settings

Economic evaluation: Building sector

Measure Investment Cost

(million $)

Abatement Cost

$/t CO2 eq R 1 Insulation of buildings in the residential sector 442 126 R 2 Insulation of buildings in the services sector 23 2 R 3 Maintenance of central boiler systems 581 234 R 4 Replacement of old boiler systems 110 13 R 5 External shading, ventilation, etc. 52 -6 R 6 Promotion of high efficiency air-conditioning systems 376 203 R 7 Promotion of high efficiency electric devices 801 158 R 8 Replacement of incadescent light bulbs with low energy

ones 720 15

R 9 Automated lighting systems 4 -78 R10 Solar systems for water heating 1015 -17 R11 Solar systems for space and water heating 84 60 R12 Photovoltaic systems (roof-top) 33 248 R13 District heating with biomass 173 -49 R14 Promotion of natural gas for space heating 112 -124 R15 Promotion of air-conditioning systems fed by natural gas 327 237

Economic evaluation: Transport sector

Measure Investment Cost

(million $)

Abatement Cost

$/t CO2 eq T1 Maintenance of the private cars and light trucks 130 -24 T2 Promotion of the gas-feeded buses 21 55 T3 Improvements in road signaling 47 -33 T4 Development of the public transports 995 -8 T5 Soft measures in the transport sector n.q. n.q. T6 Promotion of bio-fuels 0 101

Economic evaluation: Industrial sector

Measure Investment Cost

(million $)

Abatement Cost

$/t CO2 eq I1 Promotion of natural gas in thermal uses 55 -9 I2 Promotion of solar energy 1141 146 I3 Promotion of biomass in thermal uses 23 -29 I4 Various energy conservation measures 21 -54

Economic evaluation: Power generation sector

Measure Investment Cost

(million $)

Abatement Cost

$/t CO2 eq E1.1 Wind energy 640 3 E1.2 Small hydroelectric power plants 350 1 E1.3 Central photovoltaic units 45 154 E1.4 High enthalpy geothermal energy 25 17 E1.5 Biomass power plants 400 58 E2 Operation of the gas power plants as base load units 0 24 E3 Co-generation units 43 -22

Economic evaluation: Non-energy sectors

Measure Investment Cost

(million $)

Abatement Cost

$/t CO2 eq

A1 Manure management 1 11 A2 Ecological cultivations n.q. n.q. W1 Flaring landfill gas 3 24 CH1 Restructuring of chemical industry n.q. n.q.

Policy measures

• Energy or carbon taxes and subsidies

• Tradable permit systems

• Standards (e.g. energy efficiency standards)

• Law 2244/94 - promotion of RES

• Energy efficiency standards and energy labeling

• Operational program of Energy

Operational Program for Development (1)

• Support for the investments in cogeneration, RES and energy conservation– Dissemination of information actions

– Infrastructure development

– Financial incentives for private energy investments

– Special support status • Voluntary agreements

• Third Party Financing

Total budget foreseen: 1071 million Euros

Operational Program for Development (2)

• Support to private investments

• Access to Natural Gas – Connection of the Greek pipeline with the Italian and the Turkish

• Reinforcement of the flexibility and the reliability of the Natural Gas system – Upgrading of the LNG station in Revithousa

– Upgrading of the network

– Construction of reservoirs

Operational Program for Development (3)

• Development of energy infrastructure for RES and small islands

• Operation of the free energy market

• Penetration of NG in the households, the tertiary sector, new industrial consumers and transport

Law for the development (2601/98)

• Subsidies for investments and programs in the field of electricity production by RES by electricity production industries and other types of enterprises

• Support to investments of RES exploitation and energy conservation

First National Plan – Emissions evolution

Target (2000) “Limit the increase of emission to +15% ± 3% compared to 1990”

EstimatedPotential (1994)

Realistic potential(1994)

[ kt CO2] [ % ] [ kt CO2] [ kt CO2]

Natural Gas Penetration 6,012 74% 4,455 3,937Electricity Production 4,200 3,113 3,191Industry 720 533 590Domestic – Tertiary Sector 1,092 809 154Transport 0 0 2IMPROVEMENTS IN POWER PLANTS 370 100% 370 226

RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES 3,267 70% 2,287 2,622Wind Energy 1,000 700 775Small Hydro 221 155 273Solar Energy 976 683 928

Conventional Systems 939 657 925New Technologies 37 26 3

Geothermal Energy60 42 14

Biomass910 637 632

District Heating60

42 81Electricity Production

750525 508

Biofuels100

70 0Wastes 0 43

Research and Development 100 70 n.a.INDUSTRY 1,368 67% 912 28 +Cogeneration 80 53 15 +Improvements on auxiliary processes 430 287 13 +Interventions in energy intensive sectors 808 539 n.a.Environmental – Energy Audits 50 33 0DOMESTIC – TERTIARY SECTOR 1,103 67% 735 ? (440 +)Lighting 470 313 +Cogeneration 51 34 +Central Heating 343 229 n.a.Street Lighting 239 159 +TRANSPORT 1,263 67% 841 ?Fuel related measures 56 37 Vehicle related measures 300 200 n.a.Transportation Management 470 313 n.a.Public Transport 437 291 n.a.TOTAL 13,383 9,600 6,813 +440= 7,253

Estimation for 2000 (1999)