The Heavy News Weekly

In This Edition: Deficit could hit $25B and still honour Liberals’ ‘fiscal anchor’

MHCA welcomes its newest member!

Manitoba “T” Plate Registration change

MHCA Annual Curling Classic - registration and sponsorship opportunities now available!

The MHCA invites you to the Breakfast with the Leaders series - see dates and registration information

The MHCA invites you to design the 2016 Directory cover - see contest details and enter today!

WORKSAFELYTM Training Schedule

WORKSAFELYTM Safety Tips: Shoveling Safety

Trade Confidence Slips Further

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December 17, 2015

Now that the federal Liberals have shied away from their vow to keep annual deficits under $10 billion, they’ve latched on to another fiscal target -- and this one will be much easier to meet.

The new government is suddenly talking about the debt-to-GDP ratio, promising repeatedly to keep it on a downward track every year until the next election.

The government calculates its debt-to-GDP ratio by dividing total federal debt by the overall size of the economy, as measured by nominal GDP.

It represents a government’s capacity to pay back debt -- and focusing on it gives politicians more spending flexibility.

By targeting debt-to-GDP, the Liberals could instead be prepared to run annual deficits of up to $25 billion in the coming years and still lower the ratio -- as long as the economy grows at a decent pace, economists say.

“The government does have a fair bit of room if what they’re trying to do is just see the debt-to-GDP ratio go down,” said Mike Moffatt, who teaches economics at the University of Western Ontario’s Ivey Business School.

The adoption of the debt-to-GDP ratio as a “fiscal anchor” is not new. It was mentioned in the Liberal election platform as one of the ways to keep spending under control. The campaign rhetoric, however, largely focused on the $10-billion annual deficit. No longer. ... Continued on Page 2

Deficit could hit $25B and still honour Liberals’ ‘fiscal anchor’Originally published by CTV News and featured in CCA Weekly

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With uncosted election promises piling up on top of unforeseen shortfalls in the underlying fiscal plan, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has emphasized the more-reachable fiscal anchor in recent days.

“We will continue to decrease (the debt-to-GDP ratio) every single year because that’s important for the fiscal health of our country,” Trudeau said Wednesday, after casting further doubt on the $10-billion annual deficit target because of economic challenges.

“We always targeted modest deficits, we had hoped it would be around $10 billion -- we will see if we will be able to hold at that level.”

Plain old math dictates the ratio can continue to fall even if the public books slide into the red -- at least to a point.

That’s because even if the federal debt gets fatter, the ratio will edge downwards if the economy is growing faster than the debt.

Still, in an economy battered by low commodity prices, the debt-to-GDP promise doesn’t exactly look like a slam dunk, either.

Earlier this month, projections by the parliamentary budget office suggested the government could find itself running annual deficits up to $15 billion once the Liberals’ costed, big-ticket election promises are factored in. On top of that, the party has also made several uncosted vows.

Then, this week, the Liberals conceded their new tax package will, in fact, drain more than $1 billion net from the treasury each year.

At the same time, economic growth is sluggish.

When considering the forecasts, Scott Clark -- a former deputy minister of Finance -- believes the Liberals will already be close to the threshold that would start ratcheting up the debt-to-GDP.

“Then you’ve got a serious problem because then no one’s going to believe you,” Clark said of the danger of not living up to the goal.

“Your credibility will go straight out the window because if you’re going to have an anchor ... you have to live up to it. As soon as you break that, the financial markets will come down on you like a ton of bricks.”

The Liberal platform, which helped carry the party to victory in October, also contained a second fiscal anchor: balancing the federal books by the fourth year of its mandate.

But experts believe balancing the 2019-20 budget poses a big hurdle unless the government cuts spending or hikes taxes -- or both -- to overcome the weaker-than-expected economy and the pricey basket of electoral promises.

Many experts like Clark argue that lowering the debt-to-GDP ratio is a more-appropriate -- and achievable -- commitment for a government than a balanced-budget anchor.

The government projects the ratio will gradually fall each year from 31.1 per cent in 2015-16 to 25.2 per cent in 2020-21.

But Don Drummond, a former senior Finance Department bureaucrat, questioned the importance of striving to drop an already-low ratio that’s much lower than it’s been in the past.

“Who knows whether it even needs to be brought down?” said Drummond, who was assistant deputy minister of fiscal policy in the 1990s when the ratio was close to 70 per cent.

“There’s nothing in the economic literature that drives you towards the notion of an optimal debt-to-GDP ratio...I think it’s a second choice on their part when they can’t produce the deficit target that they want. This is kind of a defensive mechanism.”

Economist Moffatt, who stress-tested the fiscal numbers in the Liberals’ election platform, said if nominal GDP growth returned to a more-normal level in the coming years -- of about 3.5 or four per cent -- then the

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Welcome new MHCA Member!

government could probably run deficits up to $25 billion without pushing the ratio up.

For 2015, the government only expects nominal GDP to grow by 0.9 per cent largely due to the squeeze of low oil prices, according to its fall fiscal update.

That projection, an average of private-sector forecasts taken in October, also called for a turnaround of 4.1 per cent growth in 2016, 4.6 in 2017 and 4.4 in 2018.

DRILLS & TOOLING

Commercial Vehicle Safety and Permits Motor Carrier Division(MCD) Unit C – 1695 Sargent Avenue Winnipeg, MB, Canada, R3H 0C4 T 1-877-812-0009 F 204-945-6499

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Holiday Hours of Operation – Manitoba Permit Services

Regular hours of operation Monday to Friday, 7:30 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. (CST)

Tuesday, December 22, 2015 - Permit Services will be closed between the hours of 11:30 a.m. to 1:30 p.m. Thursday, December 24, 2015 – 7:30 a.m. to 1:00 p.m. Friday, December 25, 2015 - Closed Monday, December 28, 2015 – Closed Friday, January 1, 2016 - Closed Thank you for your cooperation in this matter. You can contact Permit Services at: Phone: (204) 945-3961 (local) (877) 812-0009 (toll free) Fax: (204) 945-6499 Email: permitservices@gov.mb.ca

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Your trusted source for Fleet Management

Are You Aware of the changes to the Manitoba “T” Plate Registration?

Effective September 1, 2015 Manitoba Infrastructure and Transportation (MIT) has enforced a change of registration class for Heavy Vehicles.

Heavy Vehicle is a vehicle with a

registered GVW of 4500 kg or greater and not used exclusively for personal transportation.

How does this affect your company?

What do you need to do?

Change your Heavy Vehicle registration class at time of renewal;

Go from “T” plates to either a Limited Use or Full CT Plate or Limited Use or Full PSV Plate;

Apply for a Safety Fitness Certificate;

Get your assigned National Safety Code (NSC) number;

Comply with all National Safety Code Standards. Do you know the NSC Standards?

16 NSC Standards;

NSC Driver & Vehicle Files;

Hours of Service Regulations including Auditing Requirement;

Daily Vehicle Inspection Regulations;

Cargo Securement Regulations;

NSC Vehicle Maintenance;

CVSA On-Road Inspections.

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NCL is a fleet management company that offers vehicle registration services as well as NSC related services and products to assist companies in achieving and complying with all Provincial and Federal Registration Regulations.

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In warm appreciation for your continued membership

and support throughout the past year, the MHCA would like to wish you

PEACE, LOVE & JOY AND A VERY MERRY CHRISTMASTHIS HOLIDAY SEASON

THE MHCA OFFICE WILL BE CLOSED DECEMBER 23, 2015 - JANUARY 4, 2016

Stay Connected mhca.mb.ca

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Destination: ThompsonNNNOOORRRTTTHHH

Destination: WinnipegSSS OOOUUUTTTHHH

MARK YOUR CALENDARS FOR NEXT YEAR’S

February 24 & 25, 2016 April 5 & 6, 2016

WORKING TOGETHER TO ACHIEVE WORKPLACE SAFETY EXCELLENCE

EARLY BIRD REGISTRATION

NOW AVAILABLE!

LEARN MORE AT MHCA.MB.CA/EXPO

ANNUAL CURLING CLASSIC

presents

THURSDAY, JANUARY 21, 2016 The Heather Curling Club120 Youville Street, Winnipeg, MB R2H 2S1

Ice Sheet (8 spots available)

Hog Line Contest

Morning Coffee & Muffins station

Your sponsorship will include:• Corporate signage at the end

of the sheet of ice for the whole day

• Sponsorship announcement and recognition at lunch time

• A ‘Thank You’ recognition in MHCA’s Heavy News Weekly and website

For $275+GST, your company can sponsor one of the following event areas - please mark one:

PRIZE DONATIONS

REGISTRATIONFor a full day of curling, networking, and good eats:$250+GST per team or $62.50+GST per individual

Company:

Contact Person: Tele:

Please invoice (members only):

Visa/MC/AMEX: Exp. Date: Security code:

Card Holder: Signature:

I would like to enter a team of four (4) curlers:

I would like to enter as a single player:

I only plan to attend the luncheon ($40+GST):

WANT TO BE A SPONSOR?

Company:

Contact Person: Tele:

Please invoice (members only):

Visa/MC/AMEX: Exp. Date: Security code:

Card Holder: Signature:

Fill out this form in full and fax to the MHCA office at 204-943-2279. For more information, contact Christine Miller at christine@mhca.mb.ca or 204-947-1379.

As per MHCA Board Policy, only registrations cancelled at least six (6) business days, prior to the commencement of this event, will be refunded.

I would like to donate: $50 $100 $150We also accept cash donations for prize giveaways!

The Manitoba Heavy Construction Association & the Manitoba Home Builders’ Association are pleased to present,

Breakfast with the Leaders Series

Holiday Inn Winnipeg Airport Polo Park 1740 Ellice Avenue, Winnipeg, MB

Mr. Brian Pallister Ms. Rana Bokhari Premier Greg Selinger Leader, PC Party Leader, Liberal Party Leader, NDP Tuesday January 19, 2016 Thursday January 28, 2016 Tuesday February 23, 2016 King Edward Room Madison Ballroom Madison Ballroom

Doors Open: 7:30 am Breakfast: 8:00 am hot breakfast will be served

Presentation: 8:15 am Cost: $35.00 + gst / person

RSVP: MHCA - Brenda Perkins at 204-947-1379 or Brenda@mhca.mb.ca

MHBA – Janet Constable at 204-925-2578 or jconstable@homebuilders.mb.ca

Areas of interest to be addressed in the presentations:

• Given the importance of growing Manitoba's economy, the relative priority the Leader would place on trade & transportation investments as part of a provincial economic growth strategy, including promoting CentrePort Canada and the Port of Churchill as key Canadian trade gateways and corridors;

• To address obvious investment need, commitment to sustaining and incrementally enhancing the projected levels of strategic investment in Manitoba's core infrastructure through the dedicated 1% of PST revenues;

• Income growth has not kept pace with the cost of housing. Address the rising cost of home ownership and decline in affordability in the Manitoba market particularly as it impacts young people;

• Projected approaches to balancing the provincial budget; • Views on reviewing the existing provincial revenue sharing and striking a 'New Fiscal Deal' all of Manitoba's

municipalities; • With the growing importance and profile of the New West Partnership an indication of intention to join, or

otherwise project Manitoba's global presence and investment promotion.

The Breakfast with the Leaders series is sponsored by Aon Reed Stenhouse Inc.

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EligibilityEntrants must be current members of the Manitoba Heavy Construction Association. The contest’s Artwork Guidelines states that considered submissions must be two-dimensional original, hand-rendered art (acrylic, oil, watercolour, etc.), three-dimensional works (sculptures/carvings), or photography. Submitted artwork cannot have already been previously published or reproduced in any format or exhibit. Also, the artist should not have future plans to sell, publish, reproduce or exhibit the artwork.

If the Contest Entry contains any material or elements that are not owned by the entrant, and/or which are subject to the rights of third parties, the entrant is responsible for obtaining, prior to submission of the Contest Entry, any and all releases and consents necessary to permit the use.

MHCA and its publisher, Lester Communications Inc. hold themselves harmless of any use of submitted materials claimed to be the ownership of the party for which made submission and any and all legal issues arising with copyright of said materials will be between the property owner and the submitting party.

To enter, each artist can submit 1 (one) piece for the contest.

How to EnterEntries must be received by Friday, January 15, 2016. Late entries will not be considered due to the production schedule of the MHCA Directory. The winning entrant will be contacted shortly after the closing date.

Entries must be submitted in the following formats: PDF, EPS, or TIFF files. JPGS are accepted but other formats are preferred. All files need to be high-resolution 300 dpi images at 6” W by 9” H. CMYK or Grayscale are acceptable.

Entries must be accompanied with an official entry form, containing the following information:• MHCA member company name along with work address,

telephone number and email address• A short artist’s biography• Description of the artwork, including dimensions, medium

and title

Conditions of EntryBy entering the MHCA Directory Cover Art Competition, the entrant agrees to the following conditions:• The theme of the 2016 Directory must reflect heavy

equipment• The winning entrant agrees to permit MHCA to publish his/

her own artwork on the cover of the 2016 MHCA Equipment Rental Rates & Membership Directory, which will be distributed across Manitoba

• The winning entry becomes the copyright property of MHCA• The winning entrant agrees that MHCA has the right to

reproduce the artwork for its corporate website and on promotional materials associated with the MHCA Equipment Rental Rates & Membership Directory

• The winning entrant will be publicly credited in the MHCA Equipment Rental Rates & Membership Directory as well as the official website and any other promotional materials that features the artwork

• No copyrighted images, products, or company names can be part of the submitted entry

• Ensure that all photographs used are in compliance with current Workplace, Health & Safety Regulatons

The WinnerThe winning entrant of this competition will have ‘bragging rights’ for the year of 2016 and will receive a giftcard valued at $250. The winning selection process will take place via a panel of official MHCA judges. If no suitable cover art design is submitted, MHCA reserves the right to choose the 2016 cover art.

Entries can be sent by mail or email to:Manitoba Heavy Construction AssociationUnit 3-1680 Ellice AveWinnipeg, MB R3H 0Z2

For further inquiries about this contest, contact:Megan Funnell204-947-1379 ex. 24mfunnell@mhca.mb.ca

MHCA 2016 Equipment Rental Rates & Membership Directory Cover Art Competition

We invite you to create the eye-catching MHCA Directory cover art that will be seen and and admired across Manitoba!

Check out the contest rules and regulations below:

MAKE YOUR MARK!

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HOLIDAYW I S H I N G Y O U A H A P P Y

S E A S O N

TITAN ENVIRONMENTAL CONTAINMENT

Join your colleagues at the WCR&HCA Convention

Convention Features & Highlights Include:

Sunday, February 7 to Wednesday, February 10, 2016Fairmont Kea Lani

Wailea Coast, Maui, Hawaii

“Where the West Meets”! For Convention & Registration information, visit www.wcrhca.org

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Training Schedule

TO REGISTER, PLEASE CONTACT:

Sarah Higgins sarah@mhca.mb.ca

JanuaryCOR™ Leadership in Safety Excellence Jan. 11 -12 MHCA OfficeCOR™ Principles of Health & Safety Management Jan. 13 MHCA OfficeCOR™ Auditor Jan. 14 - 15 MHCA Office

COR™ Leadership in Safety Excellence, Brandon, MB Jan. 11 - 12 St. John AmbulanceCOR™ Principles of Health & Safety Management, Brandon, MB Jan. 13 St. John AmbulanceCOR™ Auditor, Brandon, MB Jan. 14 - 15 St. John Ambulance

Train the Trainer Jan. 18 - 19 MHCA OfficeFlagperson (1/2 day AM) Jan. 20 MHCA OfficeCommittee/Representative Training (1/2 day PM) Jan. 20 MHCA OfficeWHMIS (1/2 day AM) Jan. 21 MHCA OfficeTDG (1/2 day PM) Jan. 21 MHCA OfficeExcavating and Trenching (1/2 day AM) Jan. 22 MHCA OfficeTraffic Control Coordinator Jan. 25 - 26 MHCA Office*Team Leader (1/2 day AM) Jan. 28 MHCA Office*Effective Delegation (1/2 day PM) Jan. 28 MHCA Office

February*Written Communication (1/2 day AM) Feb. 11 MHCA Office*Verbal Communication (1/2 day PM) Feb. 11 MHCA Office

EXPO North, Thompson, MB Feb. 24 - 25 Held at the Thompson Regional Community Centre & University College of the North

MarchCOR™ Leadership in Safety Excellence Feb. 29 - March 1 MHCA OfficeCOR™ Principles of Health & Safety Management March 2 MHCA OfficeCOR™ Auditor March 3 - 4 MHCA OfficeTrain the Trainer March 14 - 15 MHCA OfficeFlagperson (1/2 day AM) March 16 MHCA OfficeCommittee/Representative Training (1/2 day PM) March 16 MHCA OfficeWHMIS (1/2 day AM) March 17 MHCA OfficeTDG (1/2 day PM) March 17 MHCA OfficeExcavating and Trenching (1/2 day AM) March 18 MHCA OfficeTraffic Control Coordinator March 21 - 22 MHCA Office*Planning Work (1/2 day AM) March 24 MHCA Office*Document Use - Reading & Translating (1/2 day PM) March 24 MHCA Office

*Leadership Certificate Program

For the full calendar of upcoming training schedules, visit www.mhca.mb.ca/worksafely

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1. Snow shoveling is no different than any other physical activity. For your own safety, ask your doctor if he feels snow shoveling is safe for you.

2. Shoveling snow can be a serious health safety risk if you have a history of heart related illness. High blood pressure and high cholesterol are risk factors as well.

3. Smokers get short of breath quite easily. Shortness of breath will make your heart pump faster, increasing your risk of heart attack.

4. If you are a senior citizen or you are simply out of shape, it would be wise to hire someone to do your shoveling for you. Concern for your own safety is nothing to be ashamed of.

5. Before starting to shovel, be sure you have warmed up properly. Try using the same type of stretching you do before your regular exercise routine.

6. Start slowly, work at a steady pace and take frequent breaks. Shoveling snow rapidly for long periods at a time will compromise your safety.

7. When you are shoveling snow be sure to remain hydrated. Dehydration can cause dizziness and fainting as well as more serious health issues.

8. Choose a small shovel, so you are not lifting as much snow. Snow may appear light and fluffy, but it can get quite heavy when it starts to melt. A curved handle shovel is designed to take the strain off your back.

9. Plastic shovels weigh less than metal and snow is not as likely to stick to them. These factors add less weight to your load. Spray the blade with a lubricant to keep snow from sticking.

10. Stand with your feet apart slightly and bend your knees as you lift. Twisting your body while lifting can cause injury. Your feet should point in the direction you are lifting and throwing in.

11. If it is cold outside, wear multiple layers for insulation. Be sure to cover your extremities to guard against frostbite and shed extra layers if you become overheated.

12. Avoid drinking caffeinated beverages and energy drinks. These can elevate your heart rate, increasing your risk for heart attack.

13. Shovel often as the snow falls. Heavy accumulated snow can turn to ice and cause a safety hazard for pedestrians. It can also be a real back-breaking proposition.

Shoveling Safety

SAFETY TIPS

The snow is flying and piling up high. You grab your shovel and get right to work, clearing your drive/walk way. Tis’ the season! You may not hear about shovelling-related incidents very often but they still can happen - especially back strains, muscle pain, or (worst case scenario) a heart attack - if you don’t follow some basic safety rules. There are many ways to make sure your experience is productive and safe - simply follow these safety tips and tricks. Happy shoveling!

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Trade Confidence Slips Further By Peter G Hall, Vice President and Chief Economist

Few of us like mayhem. And there’s a lot of that going around these days. Oil and gas prices are testing new lows. Base metals are back down to 2009 prices. Equity markets are turbulent the world over. Currencies don’t seem to know where to settle. In our information age, whether there’s a direct stake involved or not, the apparent chaos is obvious and alarming. Thus, in spite of rosier predictions by EDC and others, small wonder that Canadian exporters are less confident now than they were in the preceding survey conducted in the spring.

EDC’s latest Trade Confidence Index, built from a survey of 735 Canadian exporters between September 15 and October 5, dipped for the third successive survey, sliding further to 72.8. The level is still consistent with the long-term average value of the index, but seems to run

counter to the general expectation that export activity will take the lead in overall growth next year and beyond. Should we worry?

Two of the five Index elements deal with Canadian exporters’ activities inside the country. Although three-quarters of respondents expect domestic conditions to improve or remain the same, a slight rise over the previous survey, expectations for sales here at home posted the second-largest drop among the key questions. This comes in spite of the sharp weakening of the Canadian dollar over the past 18 months.

World economic conditions in the near term are currently the biggest concern for Canadian exporters. Those expecting conditions to improve or remain the same posted the lowest score and the sharpest decline among the five Index elements. The result doesn’t come as a surprise, in light of financial market turbulence and ongoing prominent geopolitical concerns. Perceptions of international business opportunities were also down a shade, although given Canada’s exposure to the resource sector it’s actually encouraging to see that 91 per cent of respondents still see opportunities staying the same or improving over the coming six months.

As interesting as these results are, where the rubber meets the road is export sales. Here, another surprising result. Compared with the spring survey, there was hardly any change in the share of exporters seeing similar or improved international sales. Not only that, but the overall share was the highest for any other Index element, at 94 per cent of those surveyed. What they seem to be telling us is that despite deteriorating conditions and opportunities outside the country, the vast majority of exporters see sales holding up. This suggests that orders are maintaining a steady clip amid market turbulence.

It seems the US market is a key factor. Survey results show that 84 per cent of exporters are selling goods and services across the border, and close to half of these are expecting increased sales. Gloomy news out of Europe doesn’t seem to have nixed Canada’s sales there. Of those currently doing business in Europe, 82 per cent expect sales to hold firm or increase. This is in line with recent GDP growth in Europe, which has been above the long-term average for five consecutive quarters.

The Canadian dollar also seems to be fuelling export sales. Its 20 per cent plunge since mid-2014 is cited by 61 per cent of respondents as being positive for their export sales. At the same time, 34 per cent of exporters are using the weaker loonie to pass on lower costs to their customers.

Across the country, scores are understandably low in Western Canada, but Quebec took the largest survey-to-survey hit, as concern about both domestic and world conditions worsened. Among industries polled, natural resources were among the weakest, but transportation – hit by both domestic and international conditions – saw the largest drop in confidence. Small businesses seem most impacted by developments since the spring, with confidence falling 3.1 points to 72.8. However, the large-company score, while virtually unchanged, was lowest among firm-size results, at 70.1.

The bottom line? Trade confidence is down yet again, but in terms of actual cross-border activity, it seems largely a perception thing. Let’s hope sales live up to expectations.

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The Manitoba Water Services Board

Sealed tenders, marked as follows will be received by the undersigned at The Manitoba Water Services Board, Imperial Square, 2010 Currie Blvd., Box 22080, Brandon, Manitoba, R7A 6Y9, before 11:00 a.m., prevailing Brandon time on:

January 8, 2016

for the following works:

Supply and install materials for a new roof including electrical, mechanical and associated works in Austin, Manitoba

MARKED

MWSB No. 1259Yellowhead Regional Water Co-op (YHRC)

Austin Reservoir Roof Replacement

Tenders will be publicly opened and read at the location, time and date specified above.

Each tender must be accompanied by a fully executed BID BOND on the form provided and in favor of the Minister of Finance for the amount shown on the Tender. Under NO CIRCUMSTANCES will a certified cheque be accepted in lieu of a Bid Bond.

Tender documents may be obtained by provincially registered companies on or after December 11,2015 at 2010 Currie Blvd., Brandon, MB. Contact us at (204) 726-6076 to request the documents inPDF digital or hard copy format.

The lowest or any tender may not necessarily be accepted.

Stay Connected mhca.mb.ca