Short History of UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol

Gabriela Fischerova

Climate Change Policy Advisor

Where it starts

• 1886 Arrhenius hypothesis – carbon dioxide could increase Earth average temperature

• 1930 – Lonely voice of G. S. Callendar (warming in the US was due to increased concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere)

• 1950 – More money for the climate research on the weather and the sea

• 1960 – First simple mathematical models

• 1970s – The rise of environmentalism

• 1979 – The First World Climate Conference identified climate change as an urgent world problem (World Climate Programme set up)

• 1988 – The Toronto Conference recommended to develop comprehensive global framework convention to protect the atmosphere

UN role

• 1988 – IPCC established by the UN General Assembly Resolution 43/53

• 1990 – First assessment Report by the IPCC

• 1990 – UN Resolution 45/212 – INC for FCCC established

• 1992 – UNFCCC adopted at Rio Earth Summit

• 1994 – 21 March – Convention entered into force

Convention – Ultimate objective

Article 2:

„The ultimate objective ... is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.“

Convention – Principles

• Precautionary Principle – the lack of full scientific certainty should not be used as an excuse to postpone action when there is a threat of serious or irreversible damage

• Principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR) and respective capabilities – the developed country Parties should take the lead in combating climate change and the adverse effects thereof

• Principle of Sustainable Development – policies and measures to protect the climate system should be appropriate for the specific conditions of each Party and should be integrated with national development programmes

Convention – Annex I Parties

Australia, Austria, Belarus*, Belgium, Bulgaria*, Canada, Croatia, Czech Republic*, Denmark, European Community, Estonia*, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary*, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Latvia*, Lichtenstein, Lithuania*, Luxembourg, Monaco, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland*, Portugal, Romania*, Russian Federation*, Slovakia*, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine*, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, United States of America, Malta

Convention – Annex II Parties

Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, European Community, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, United States of America

Convention – Commitments (Art. 4, 5, and 6)

All Parties (according to CBDR):

• Develop national inventories of anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of all greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol, using comparable methodologies

• Formulate, implement, publish and regularly update national and, where appropriate, regional programmes containing measures to mitigate climate change

• Promote and cooperate in the development, application and diffusion, including transfer, of technologies, practices and processes that control, reduce or prevent emissions

Convention – Commitments (Art. 4, 5, and 6)

• Promote sustainable management, and promote and cooperate in the conservation and enhancement, as appropriate, of sinks and reservoirs of all greenhouse gases

• Cooperate in preparing for adaptation to the impacts of climate change

• Promote and cooperate in scientific, technological, technical, socio-economic and other research, systematic observation and development of data archives

• Promote and cooperate in education, training and public awareness

• Communicate to the Conference of the Parties information related to implementation

Convention – Commitments (Annex I)

• Adopt national policies and take corresponding measures on the mitigation of climate change, by limiting its anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and protecting and enhancing its greenhouse gas sinks and reservoirs

• Communicate detailed information on its policies and measures on mitigation, on inventories, projections, vulnerability assessment, adaptation, financial sources, etc.

Convention – Commitments (Annex II)

• Provide new and additional financial resources to meet the agreed full costs incurred by developing country Parties in complying with their obligations

• Assist the developing country Parties that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change in meeting costs of adaptation to those adverse effects.

• Promote, facilitate and finance, as appropriate, the transfer of, or access to, environmentally sound technologies and know-how to other Parties, particularly developing country Parties, to enable them to implement the provisions of the Convention.

Kyoto Protocol

• 1995 – COP 1 of UNFCCC in Berlin 1995 – Berlin mandate to negotiate more stringent commitments for developed countries

• 1996 – 2nd Assessment report published by IPCC

• 1997 – Kyoto Protocol adopted by COP 3

• 2001 – Marrakesh Accords adopted at COP 7 (detailed set of rules for implementation of KP)

• 2005 – Entry into force (16 February)

• 2005 – COP/MOP 1 (December, Montreal)

Kyoto Protocol – Commitments

• Commitments only for Annex I Parties• Quantified emission limitation and reduction commitments

• aggregate by at least -5% in 2008 – 2012 compared to 1990

• Individual as in Annex B: from -8% to +10% compared to 1990 or other base year (Bulgaria - 1988, Hungary - average of 1985-1987, Poland - 1988, Romania - 1989, Slovenia - 1986).

• Flexible mechanisms (Joint Implementation JI, Clean Development Mechanism CDM, International Emission trading IET)

• Other commitments (national inventory systems, annual reporting …

• Burden sharing

Kyoto Protocol – Annex B

Party % Party % Party % Party %

Australia 108 Finland 92Liechtenstein 92 Russia* 100

Austria 92 France 92Lithuania* 92 Slovakia* 92

Belgium 92 Germany 92Luxembourg 92 Slovenia* 92

Bulgaria* 92 Greece 92 Monaco 92 Spain 92

Canada 94 Hungary* 94Netherlands 92 Sweden 92

Croatia* 95 Iceland 110New Zealand 100

Switzerland 92

Czech Republic* 92 Ireland 92 Norway 101 Ukraine* 100

Denmark 92 Italy 92 Poland* 94 UK 92

Estonia* 92 Japan 94 Portugal 92 US 93

EC 92 Latvia* 92Romania* 92

Trends in GHG Emissions of Annex I

Kyoto Protocol – Key Problems

• Inadequate reduction targets

• Limited validity for emission reduction (first commitment period 2008 – 2012)

• Reduction targets only for certain countries (Annex I)

• Geopolitical changes since 1992

• Climate is changing faster then expected in 1992

What is needed

• Keep the temperature raise below 2° C by 2100

• The concentration of GHG in the atmosphere should not be higher than 450 ppm

• Deeper cuts in global emissions (up to -50% by 2052)

• More ambitious commitments for the future period from Annex I Parties (up to -25% to -40% by 2020 compared to 1990) – current pledges of Annex I are from -13% to -19%

• Improved rules

• New legal architecture

What is needed (cont.)

How to get to future climate regime

• AWG KP – Ad hoc Working Group for Further Commitments of Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol (Article 3.9 KP)

• Article 3. 9: „Commitments for subsequent periods for Parties included in Annex I shall be established in amendments to Annex B to this Protocol, which shall be adopted in accordance with the provisions of Article 21, paragraph 7. The Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to this Protocol shall initiate the consideration of such commitments at least seven years before the end of the first commitment period

• 2012 (end of the first CP) – 7 = 2005 (COP/MOP 1 in Montreal)

AWG KP

• Established in December 2005 by COP/MOP1 • First sessions in 2006• Currently, 16th session of AWG KP in Bangkok, 2011• Objective:

• To negotiate commitments for Annex I for second commitment period

• Improvement of flexible mechanisms• Rules for LULUCF (land use, land-use change, and

forestry)• Methodical issues (global warming potential – GWP, new

gases, new sectors, guidelines…)• Potential consequences of reduction measures

AWG LCA

• AWG LCA – Ad hoc Working Group for Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention – Bali Action Plan

• Established by COP14 in Bali, 2007• First session in 2008• Currently 14th session in Bangkok, 2011• Objective:

• to negotiate long-term cooperative action among the Parties on how to achieve the objective of the Convention, looking at a range of commitments from all Parties to the Convention (to enable the full, effective and sustained implementation of the Convention through long-term cooperative action, now, up to and beyond 2012)

Bali Action Plan

• A shared vision for long-term cooperative action, including a long-term global goal for emission reductions

• Enhanced national/international action on mitigation of climate change

• For developed countries – absolute targets

• For developing countries – Nationally appropriate mitigation actions – NAMAs

• Enhanced action on adaptation• Enhanced action on technology development and transfer• Enhanced action on the provision of financial resources and

investment to support action on mitigation and adaptation and technology cooperation.

THANK YOU

Gabriela Fischerova, Climate Change Policy Advisor

Tel:  +421 2 59337 219Mobile: +421 901 736 030E-mail: gabriela.fischerova@undp.org