THE IDIOT-MAKER RALLY: Check Out All SEND US A …€”Glenn Neely, founder of NEoWave Institute...

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THE IDIOT-MAKER RALLY: Check Out AllThe Gurus That Have Been Made ToLook Like Fools By This MarketMatthew Boesler | Mar. 5, 2013, 6:15 PM | 40,950 | 22

Today, the Dow closed at anall-time high. It's up 120percent from its March 6,2009 lows.

Ever since the low, expertsfrom both the bearish andbullish camps have presentedtheir arguments for whyinvestors should sell.

Sure, there have been dipsalong the way. Ultimately,though, the trend has beenup.

To be clear, none of thepeople we identify here are idiots, and we don't want to give that impression.

But this epic bull market run has certainly made a lot of people look and feel like idiots.

March 2009: John Mauldin say bulls will get their hopes crushedover the summer

So, I know a lot of youhave stayed in themarket the whole time ithas been falling and arenow wondering what todo. If you have a ten-year time horizon youprobably can buy hereand do OK. But I

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March 2009: Nouriel Roubini predicts new lows in the next 18months

wouldn't. I think thismarket is going to havemore problems as weconfront the realpossibility that we will getsome really poorearnings for the first and second quarters. The economy is simply weak, and thatweakness is hitting more and more companies. From exporting companies to the biginternational firms, a global slowdown is hitting almost everyone. Even hospitals arebeing challenged. We could see a real bear market rally lure investors back in, just tocrush their hopes this summer.

John Maudlin on March 14th, 2009

Dow Then: 7,223

Dow Today: 14,254

"During the lastrecession, the economybottomed out inNovember 2001 andGDP growth was robustin 2002 but the U.S.stock markets kept onfalling all the way throughthe first quarter of 2003.So not only were thestock markets not"forward looking," theyactually lagged theeconomic recovery by 18months--rather than leadit by six to nine months.

A similar scenario could occur this time around. The real economy sort of exits therecession some time in 2010, but deflationary forces keep a lid on the pricing power ofcorporations and their profit margins, and growth is so weak and anemic, that U.S.equities may--as in 2002--move sideways for most of 2010. A number of false bull startswould occur as economic recovery signals remain mixed.

Thus, most likely, we can brace ourselves for new lows on U.S. and global equities inthe next 12 to 18 months."

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May 2009: Andy Kessler says "this sure smells to me like asucker's rally"

June 2009: Michael Markowski says "the markets are in the laterstages of a powerful bear market rally that is close to its peak"

Nouriel Roubini on March 12, 2009

Dow: 7,170

Dow Today: 14,254

"Is this the dawn of anew era? Are we off tothe races again? I'm notso sure. Only a foolpredicts the stockmarket, so here I go.This sure smells to melike a sucker's rally.That's because therearen't sustainable,fundamental reasons forthe market's continuedrise.

Andy Kessler on May12, 2009

Dow: 8,469

Dow Today: 14,254

"I believe that themarkets are in the laterstages of a powerful bearmarket rally that is closeto its peak. I expect themarket to trade in anarrow trading range untillate this summer before itstarts to head downagain this fall."

Michael Markowski,founder of StockDiagnostics, on June 2,2009

Dow: 8,740

Dow Today: 14,254

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June 2009: Glenn Neely predicts the S&P will decline 50% in thenext six months

July 2009: Dave Rovelli says "If you were to jump in right now,you're crazy"

August 2009: Bob Janjuah says "The next ugly leg of the bearmarket begins as we get into the July through September 'tippingzone'"

"Technically speaking,according to NEoWave acorrection began at lastOctober's low; the March-June rally is the final legof that correction. TheMarch-June rally is nowending, allowing the bearmarket to resume. Duringthe next six months, theS&P will decline 50% ormore, breaking wellbelow 500!"

Glenn Neely, founderof NEoWave Institute and prominent Elliott Wave analyst, on June 16, 2009

Dow: 8,504

Dow Today: 14,254

"If you were to jump inright now, you're crazy.On the same front, ifyou're 35, 40, 45 yearsold and if you do yourresearch and you buylike a Wells Fargo or aMerrill and it's going tosurvive, it could be theopportunity of a lifetime.Take small little nibbles."

Dave Rovelli,managing director of USequity trading atCanaccord Adams, on July 17, 2009

Dow: 8,743

Dow Today: 14,254

"I expect this risk rally tocontinue into andmaybe through a large

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August 2009: Doug Kass says markets are overshooting to theupside

October 2009: Robert Prechter says "stocks peaked in September"

part of August. Whathappens after that? Thenext ugly leg of the bearmarket begins as we getinto the July throughSeptember 'tipping zone',driven by the failure ofthe data to validate the V(shaped recovery) that isnow fully priced intomarkets."

Bob Janjuah on Aug. 12, 2009

Dow: 9,361

Dow Today: 14,254

"I believe that themarkets are nowovershooting to theupside and that the U.S.stock market has likelypeaked for the year...

A double-dip outcome in2010 represents mybaseline expectation.When the stimulusprovided by the publicsector is finallyabandoned, it seemsunlikely to be replaced bymeaningful strength or participation by any specific component of the private sector,and the burgeoning deficit (described above) will ultimately require a reversal of policy,leading to higher interest rates, rising marginal tax rates and a lower U.S. dollar. Myforecast assumes that the market's focus will shortly shift from the productivity gainsthat have been yielding better-than-expected bottom-line results toward these chronicand secular worries."

Doug Kass, on August 26th, 2009

Dow: 9,543

Dow Today: 14,254

"Stocks are very

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/6018076/RBS-uber-bear-issues-fresh-alert-on-global-stock-markets.htmlhttp://www.thestreet.com/story/10590765/1/kass-market-has-likely-topped.html



October 2009: Joseph Stiglitz says the markets have beenirrationally exuberant

October 2009: Jeremy Grantham says "This is the last hurrah"

overvalued. Stockspeaked in Septemberand are back in a bearmarket."

The S&P 500 willprobably fallsubstantially below676.53, the 12-year lowreached on March 9, hesaid. His projectionimplies a drop of morethan 34 percent from lastweeks close of 1025.21.It rose to 1031.77 at 10:05 a.m. in New York.

Robert Prechter on Oct. 1, 2009

Dow: 9,509

Dow Today: 14,254

Theres a lot of riskgoing ahead of some bigbumps. Theres a verybig risk that marketshave been irrationallyexuberant."

Joseph Stiglitz on Oct6, 2009

Dow: 9,731

Dow Today: 14,254

"A large rally is far morelikely to prove a lasthurrah... a codicil on thegreat bullishness wehave had since the early90s or, even in somerespects, since the early80s...

"he U.S. market willdrop below fair value,

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aM2YCVc3cUOIhttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aExyOK3McV8Ehttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aExyOK3McV8E



October 2009: Gary Shilling predicts a new low on the S&P

October 2009: Bill Gross says the rally is at its pinnacle

which is a 22% decline(from the S&P 500 levelof 1098 on October 19).

Jeremy Granthamaround Oct. 19, 2009

Dow: 9,972

Dow Today: 14,254

"I think what's happenedis still a bear market rally.And as a result, whetherwe hit new lows or notremains to be seen. Ithink we very well couldgo back and test that 666on the S&P, maybe go abit lower than that. Andthis decline may very wellspill into next year."

Gary Shilling on Oct.23, 2009

Dow: 9,972

Dow Today: 14,254

"Investors mustrecognize that if assetsappreciate with nominalGDP, a 4%5% return isabout all they can expecteven with abnormally lowpolicy rates. Rage, rage,against this conclusion ifyou wish, but the six-month rally in risk assets

http://pragcap.com/jeremey-grantham-this-is-the-last-hurrahhttp://www.forbes.com/2009/10/23/earnings-oil-chevron-markets-transcript-sales.htmlhttp://www.forbes.com/2009/10/23/earnings-oil-chevron-markets-transcript-sales.html



December 2009: Albert Edwards says "It is time to sell"

December 2009: Mohamed El Erian says stocks will tank within onemonth

while still continuouslysupported by Fed andTreasury policymakersis likely at its pinnacle.Out, out, brief candle."

Bill Gross on Oct. 27, 2009

Dow: 9,762

Dow Today: 14,254

"For Japanese investors,it took some time to learnthe new metrics ofinvesting. Today,investors have no suchexcuse... The leadingindicators have begun toturn down in the US andso risk assets aretherefore dangerous.Almost no-one will bewilling to predict renewedglobal recession and no-one will predict new lowsin equities. And with themarket so bullish a cyclical failure will come as a crushing blow to sentiment. It is timefor caution. It is time to sell."

Albert Edwards around Dec. 9, 2009

Dow: 10,337

Dow Today: 14,254

"We're on a sugar high. Itfeels good for a while butit unsustainable."

http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/oct2009/pi20091027_568798.htmhttp://www.businessinsider.com/albert-edwards-the-leading-indicators-foretell-the-next-leg-down-2009-12



January 2010: Richard Russell says "The fun's over"

May 2010: Keith McCullough says "Sell all U.S. stocks now"

Claims: Stocks will drop10 percent in the spaceof three or four weeks,bringing the Standard &Poor's 500 index below1,000.

Mohamed El Erian onDec. 28, 2009

Dow: 10,547

Dow Today: 14,254

"Despite it all, I continueto believe that sinceMarch we have been in abear market correction,and not a new bullmarket. For this reason, Itake the current rottenmarket action veryseriously. If Im correct, itthis is the beginning or atop-out in a bear marketrally, then I can tell youthat the funs over, andthe really bad times lieahead."

Richard Russell on Jan. 22, 2010

Dow: 10,610

Dow Today: 14,254

"Sell all U.S. stocks now.We're heading to1018...When markets getthis unstable, it doesn'ttake much to destabilizemarket."

Keith McCullough,

http://www.businessinsider.com/el-erian-were-still-riding-the-sugar-high-stocks-could-drop-10-in-3-week-span-2009-12http://pragcap.com/richard-russell-bad-times



June 2010: George Soros says the market is overextended

July 2010: Bill Fleckenstein says Bulls are getting too optimistic

Hedgeye CEO, on May28, 2010

Dow: 10,136

Dow Today: 14,254

"We have just enteredAct II...The collapse ofthe financial system aswe know it is real andthe crisis is far fromover...1930's style budgetdeficits are essential ascounter-cyclical policies,yet many governmentsare now moving toreduce their budgetdeficits under pressurefrom financial markets.This is liable to push theglobal economy into adouble-dip."

-- George Soros around June 7, 2010

Dow: 9,932

Dow Today: 14,254

"There is a reasonableprobability of a decentrally getting underway...However, it will bejust that: a rally. If thingsplay out along thoselines, it may very well betime to start thinkingseriously about puttingon some short positions,preparing for a move

http://www.businessinsider.com/hedgeye-keith-mccullough-sell-all-stocks-2010-5http://www.businessinsider.com/hedgeye-keith-mccullough-sell-all-stocks-2010-5http://jutiagroup.com/20100621-double-dip-recession-no-longer-crazy-talk/



September 2010: David Rosenberg says the market is overboughtand all signals are negative

July 2010: Robert Prechter says traders should short the S&P 500

back down."

Bill Fleckenstein,president of FleckensteinCapital, on July 9, 2010

Dow: 10,198

Dow Today: 14,254

"Maybe instead of goingand retesting the Aprilhighs, which now almostseems like a given to thepundits we read over theweekend, maybe whatwe have on our hands isa move to the rightshoulder in what looks tobe a classic heads-and-shoulders patternemerging. Hey, in amarket governed largelyby technicals andsentiment, these thingsmatter. And, as for sentiment, most of these indicators have very quickly moved tocontrary negative bullish readings. Not only that, but the market has become seriouslyoverbought with almost three in four stocks now trading above their 50-day movingaverages compared with one in four earlier this month."

David Rosenberg, on Sept. 27, 2010

Dow: 10,860

Dow Today: 14,254

"The selling pressure willabate at times, but by theend of 2010, stock prices

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Common/Contributors.aspx#fleckensteinhttp://www.businessinsider.com/david-rosenberg-delivers-withering-rebuttal-to-david-teppers-uber-bullishness-2010-9



October 2010: John Hussman says the market is "overvalued,overbought, overbullish"

January 2011: Adam Parker of Morgan Stanley lowers his S&P 500price target dramatically

should be muchlower...Experiencedtraders should be shortthe S&P 500 index... Thecurrent bear market willbe the biggest in nearly300 years."

Robert Prechter onJuly 15, 2010

Dow: 10,359

Dow Today: 14,254

"As of last week, theMarket Climate for stockswas characterized by richvaluations, elevated (butnot extreme) bullishsentiment, generallypositive but overboughtprice trends, andcontinued negativeeconomic pressures.Overall, our measuressuggest an overvalued,overbought, overbullishcondition, but withshorter term factorsstruggling between emerging economic weakness and overbought conditions on thenegative side, and speculative trend following on the positive side. For our part, thecurrent set of conditions is associated with an unfavorable return/risk profile, so theStrategic Growth Fund and the Strategic International Equity Fund remain well hedged."

John Hussman on Oct. 11, 2010

Dow: 11,011

Dow Today: 14,254

1,167, that's where MS'sAdam Parker sees theS&P ending in 2012."Our more cautious viewon earnings stems from

http://www.elliottwave.com/info/prechter_bio.aspxhttp://www.elliottwave.com/info/prechter_bio.aspx



August 2011: John Mauldin commits to his recession call, sayingstocks could fall 40 percent over the next 12 months

September 2011: Albert Edwards remains completely bearish,

three key factors. 1) Wesee global GDPdecelerating over thenext few months innearly every majorgeography. 2) Recentcompany results havebeen weak...This likelyportends weak Januaryresults or Aprilguidance. 3) The dollarhas materiallystrengthened against the euro over the last few months and our analysis shows this ishighly correlated to earnings downside, with select staples, technology, and materialslikely impacted. Furthermore, inventory levels remain crucial, as several industries nowhave inventory-to-sales ratios well above five-year averages," Parker said when settinghis 2012 target.

Dow Then: 12,221

Dow Today: 14,254

BloombergAdam Parker

"Last week I finallystopped being wishy-washy (with my 50-50%chance of a recessioncall) and said the U.S.would be in recessionwithin 12 months. Andsuggested that youconsider moving to thesidelines your longer-term equity investments,except your convictionstocks. (I have some ofthose in the biotechspace and simply intendto buy more if the prices go down. But remember, I am looking out ten years and expectan eventual bubble, so I dont care if I am early for some of my high-risk money.)Stocks typically go down about 40% or more in a recession."

Dow Then: 11,284

Dow Today: 14,254

http://www.businessinsider.com/top-equity-strategists-forecast-2012-2011-12?op=1http://www.businessinsider.com/top-equity-strategists-forecast-2012-2011-12?op=1http://www.bloomberg.com/video/76918634/http://www.businessinsider.com/its-the-end-of-the-world-part-1-2011-8http://www.businessinsider.com/its-the-end-of-the-world-part-1-2011-8http://www.businessinsider.com/its-the-end-of-the-world-part-1-2011-8



predicts a 65 percent selloff

September 2011: Mary Ann Bartels says the S&P 500 will dropbelow 1000

"We still hear a lot ofnonsense about equityvaluations and I certainlydon't like feeling leftout. Our belief that USequities are stillovervalued is based onTobin's Q, Shiller,Graham & Dodd's andcyclically adjusted PEmeasures. Investorsignore these at their peril.Those who takereassurance that thecurrent 12m forward S&PPE of 101 2x is cheapshould take a look at the chart below. The forward PE may be back down at thesame level as the low of the last bear market, but 1) we are on peak earnings, and2) the Ice Age secular trend of lower PE lows in this secular valuation bearmarket will mean that we move to single-digit PEs in this, the third post-bubblerecession. Those who do not believe this can happen are still choosing to ignore thereality that has unfolded before their eyes since 2000. In phase 3 of the Ice Age wewould apply a 7-8x forward multiple to recession-depressed forward earnings of say$70-75/sh. That gets us pretty close our 400 S&P target. Unbelievable and ridiculous?They said that about our 112% US T-Note forecast this time last year!"

Dow Then: 11,152

Dow Today: 14,254

Societe GeneraleAlbert Edwards

"Unfortunately, nothing inour work suggests thatthe market isimproving," Bartels saidin September. "Moreimportantly, we are moreconcerned now that thedownside risk could bemore than we originallyforecast. Measuredmoves suggest 985-910on the S&P 500 is apotential range where amarket bottom mayfinally be found." But inDecember she reiteratedher bearish view, doubling down on a downturn in 2012. "This pattern is becomingeerily similar to 2008 into 2009. A base building process has been underwaysince August but we have maintained the belief that the lows still need to betested and undercuts to 985- 935 are possible (50% probability) as part of this

Bloomberg via YouTube

http://www.businessinsider.com/albert-edwards-the-sp-is-still-going-to-400-2011-9http://www.businessinsider.com/albert-edwards-the-sp-is-still-going-to-400-2011-9http://www.businessinsider.com/albert-edwards-the-sp-is-still-going-to-400-2011-9http://www.businessinsider.com/albert-edwards-the-sp-is-still-going-to-400-2011-9http://www.businessinsider.com/albert-edwards-the-sp-is-still-going-to-400-2011-9http://www.businessinsider.com/mary-ann-bartels-predicts-sp-500-plunge-2011-9http://www.businessinsider.com/mary-ann-bartels-predicts-sp-500-plunge-2011-9http://www.businessinsider.com/bofa-mary-ann-bartels-sp-500-985-2011-12http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N_V5k_Vpwe4&feature=related



October 2011: John Hussman calls a recession and says theEuropean mess has only gotten started

October 2011: Nomura's Bob Janjuah says a fall to 700 on the S&P500 is completely possible

process. We expect a new cyclical bull market to emerge near 2Q12. Time andpatience are needed.

Dow Then: 10,990

Dow Today: 14,254

"The simple fact is thatthe measures that weuse to identify recessionrisk tend to operate witha lead of a fewmonths. Those fewmonths are oftencritical, in the sensethat the markets canoften suffer deep andabrupt losses beforecoincident and laggingevidence demonstratesactual economicweakness. As a result,there is sometimes a"denial" phase between the point where the leading evidence locks onto arecession track, and the point where the coincident evidence confirms it. We sawexactly that sort of pattern prior to the last recession. While the recession evidence wasin by November 2007 (see Expecting A Recession ), the economy enjoyed twoadditional months of payroll job growth, and new claims for unemployment trendedhigher in a choppy and indecisive way until well into 2008. Even after BearStearns failed in March 2008, the market briefly staged a rally that put it within about10% of its bull market high."

Dow Then: 11,643

Dow Today: 14,254

CNBC

"My last report (Bob'sWorld: It's only justbegun) was published on23 August. A month on Ihave little to add asmarkets and data areevolving almost exactlyas expected. Mostcommentators now seemto accept that what ishappening is not anoverreaction, rather the

http://www.businessinsider.com/hussman-recession-still-coming-2011-10http://www.businessinsider.com/hussman-recession-still-coming-2011-10http://www.businessinsider.com/hussman-recession-still-coming-2011-10http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc071112.htmhttp://www.businessinsider.com/blackboard/bear-stearns-inchttp://www.businessinsider.com/blackboard/bear-stearns-inchttp://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=1146644320http://www.businessinsider.com/nomuras-bob-janjuah-growth-is-horrible-and-politicans-are-screwing-up-so-the-market-will-be-horrible-for-years-2011-10http://www.businessinsider.com/nomuras-bob-janjuah-growth-is-horrible-and-politicans-are-screwing-up-so-the-market-will-be-horrible-for-years-2011-10http://www.businessinsider.com/nomuras-bob-janjuah-growth-is-horrible-and-politicans-are-screwing-up-so-the-market-will-be-horrible-for-years-2011-10http://www.businessinsider.com/nomuras-bob-janjuah-growth-is-horrible-and-politicans-are-screwing-up-so-the-market-will-be-horrible-for-years-2011-10http://www.businessinsider.com/nomuras-bob-janjuah-growth-is-horrible-and-politicans-are-screwing-up-so-the-market-will-be-horrible-for-years-2011-10



December 2011: Richard Russell says to 'GET OUT OF STOCKS'

markets are at last on theway to fully pricing in thesad state of the globaleconomy and globalmarkets. It may sound repetitive, but I remain firmly convinced that we are in a secularbear market where stage 1 was the late 2007 to early 2009 sell-off, stage 2 was thecountertrend rally from early 2009 to April 2011, and stage 3 is the current phase,where I expect the sell-off to last at least until late 2012 ... It is for these reasons thatmy secular view remains bearish. In or within a year from now I expect global equitiesto be 25% to 30% lower. My S&P500 target for the low in 2012 remains 800/900, andI think an 'undershoot' into the 700s is entirely possible."

Dow Then: 10,912

Dow Today: 14,254

The Globe and Mail

"I am warning all mysubscribers again thatwe are back in the grip ofa vicious and ruthlessbear. The bear has beenheld back for almost twoyears, due to the so-called quantitative easingof an anxious andignorant Fed. There's nobear angrier than afrustrated bear. As aresult, I believe we'regoing to see a brutalstock market that willshock the Fed and the bulls and the public -- and all who insist on remaining inthis bear market. I think we'll see selling of gold to cover losses (particular losses bythe short sellers), but ultimately gold will be the last man standing. But most important --GET OUT OF STOCKS."

Dow Then: 11,825

Dow Today: 14,254

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/video/video-markets-a-rally-but-then-a-drop/article4259335/http://www.businessinsider.com/richard-russell-is-warning-you-to-get-out-of-stocks-2011-12http://www.businessinsider.com/richard-russell-is-warning-you-to-get-out-of-stocks-2011-12



December 2011: UBS's Chief Strategist Jonathan Golub says hewould not be an equity buyer

December 2011: Walter Zimmerman says the S&P 500 will fall to579.57

December 2011: Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin sees 1100to 1250 range-bound S&P 500 for 2012

"I am warning all mysubscribers again thatwe are back in the grip ofa vicious and ruthlessbear. The bear has beenheld back for almost twoyears, due to the so-called quantitative easingof an anxious andignorant Fed. There's nobear angrier than afrustrated bear. As aresult, I believe we'regoing to see a brutalstock market that willshock the Fed and thebulls and the public --and all who insist on remaining in this bear market. I think we'll see selling of gold tocover losses (particular losses by the short sellers), but ultimately gold will be the lastman standing. But most important -- GET OUT OF STOCKS."

Dow Then: 11,825

Dow Today: 14,254

Bloomberg TVJonathan Golub

The Wall Street Journal'sTomi Kilgore reports thatUnited ICAP's WalterZimmerman forecasts theS&P 500 will hit 579.57,mainly on issues inEurope. If the history ofdebt tells us anything it isthat one cannot solve adebt crisis by lendingmore money to thebankrupt and theinsolvent, Zimmermansays.

Dow Then: 12,293

Dow Today: 14,254

United-ICAP

"Our 3-month, 6-month,

http://www.businessinsider.com/richard-russell-is-warning-you-to-get-out-of-stocks-2011-12http://www.businessweek.com/videos/2012-03-02/u-dot-s-dot-stocks-to-move-higher-golub-sayshttp://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/12/27/sp-500-falling-below-600-this-will-even-make-the-bears-shutter/?mod=WSJBloghttp://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/12/27/sp-500-falling-below-600-this-will-even-make-the-bears-shutter/?mod=WSJBloghttp://www.united-icap.com/



August 2012: Marc Faber warns of S&P 500 bear market after 2012presidential elections

September 2012: Bob Janjuah warns the S&P 500 will fall to 800

and 12-month forecastsare 1150, 1200, and1250. We use sixvaluation approachesincluding DDM,uncertainty-based P/Emultiple, cyclically-adjusted P/E multiple,price/book and ROErelationship ... Weestimate the S&P 500could fall by 25% to 900in an adverse scenario inwhich the Eurocollapses."

Dow Then: 12,046

Dow Today: 14,254

Bloomberg

"I think that we may stillrally somewhat intoAugust mid-August,end of August and thenprobably we'll have atougher second half. Inother words, September,October, and Novembercould be somewhattougher months...Thehigh was this year onApril 4 at 1422. I thinkit's possible, based onthe few stocks that arestrong and the reboundcandidates, that we willexceed that high maybe move to 1450 or even 1500...I think these lows could beexceeded and I think it may be October or November or after the U.S. election wecould essentially have a decline of around 20 percent in the market."

Marc Faber on August 6, 2012

Dow: 13,117

Dow Today: 14,254

Bloomberg TV

"From here, I wouldcurrently be flat orneutrally positioned. On

http://www.businessinsider.com/goldmans-top-strategist-sets-his-sp-500-target-for-2012-2011-12http://www.businessinsider.com/goldmans-top-strategist-sets-his-sp-500-target-for-2012-2011-12http://www.bloomberg.com/video/popout/MUQZAMGPT7mw1i6SXf8giQ/00:14/http://www.businessinsider.com/marc-faber-stock-market-rally-before-collapsing-2012-8http://www.bloomberg.com/video/70183756-faber-interview-about-china-u-s-economies.html



October 2012: David Tice Warns That The Market Is Like 2008 RightBefore The Crash

a multi-month timeframe and before the nextmajor multi-quarter bearmarket phase starts andwhich I still expect toresult in an 800 S&P -the upside in globalequities is in my viewpretty modest, around 10%, based on underlyinggrowth, debt andpolicymaker credibilityconcerns. However, untiland unless the S&P index demonstrates a weekly close below 1450, I believe it ispremature to go aggressively short risk tactically at least at this precise moment.That opportunity is unlikely to be more than a few months away, and could evenpresent itself in the next fortnight or so. Data, news flow, price action/volumes/marketleadership and abrupt changes in market sentiment and belief in policy/policymakerswill be the drivers."

Bob Janjuah on September 24, 2012

Dow: 13,558

Dow Today: 14,254

Bloomberg Television

"It has been hard to be abear...People though Iwas crazy when I wasbearish back in '97, '98','99. I saw that a bubblewas developing and weended up crashing '00 to'02...I tend to be very,very early...This reallyseems like it seemed inearly '08. Remember, inSeptember '08 afterLehman went down, itwasn't until October andNovember until themarket startedcrashing. In other words, I believe Spain, Europe, China...the market will pick up onthis."

David Tice on October 10, 2012

Dow: 13,344

Dow Today: 14,254

CNBC

http://www.businessinsider.com/bob-janjuah-sp-500-800-2012-9http://www.businessinsider.com/david-tice-bearish-2012-10http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000121500



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The Water Cooler

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on Mar 5, 6:44 PM said:

''

''This time it's different!

Don't take their word for it.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-05/enthusiasm-greed-or-delusion-phase

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-05/last-time-dow-was-here

And not to be missed

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-05/druckenmiller-when-you-get-kind-rigging-it-will-end-badly

Place yer bets!

We'll see, won't we?

sweetdoug

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V-V

Reply



Balance sheets are, generally speaking, impeccable.Multiples are around average.Interest rates are pretty much as close to 0% as they can be. Borrowing costs areessentially 0% plus a spread.With interest rates at 0%, and companies profitable, in aggregate, one can have infinitepatience. It's a great time to be not just long, but to borrow money as well. Bull market tocontinue indefinitely until one of these factors changes.One can borrow money, and let Warren Buffett invest it for you and make a "spread" of8%, year 1.Best time ever to be an investor.All this, just IMO.

Reply

kentog



Ok, two points. First, I don't see the utility of citing market callsmade in 2009-11, none of which were intended to be calls for 2-4years out (as far as I read, acknowledging that I did more skimming than reading).

Second, what goes up must go down. It may be all balloons and confetti today, but onething is certain: there will be a correction at some point. We just don't know when. I thinkwe'll see one by fall, and probably sooner. (I made the right call ahead of the meltdown -- I was flat when it was all said and done -- so I do have that track record. UnfortunatelyI don't seem to have the same aptitude for calling extended rallies.)

Reply

outtahere

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