The Impact of ACFTA on People’s Republic of China-ASEAN Trade: Estimates Based on an Extended...

7/31/2019 The Impact of ACFTA on Peoples Republic of China-ASEAN Trade: Estimates Based on an Extended Gravity Model

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_r Sjb`l+ Jsofa Cjo`e Xf`l+ f`h Zo`~b`l Zr@a. ?? { Grk 4>64

FHD \ateo l f~bt Sbtobs a`Tbloa`fk Bca`amoc O`xbltfxoa`


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3/48

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Xjb Om~fcx ai FCIXF a` ^ba~kbs Tb~rdkoc ai Cjo`fFSBF@ Xtfhb7 Bsxomfxbs Dfsbh a` f` Bzxb`hbh Ltfyox Mahbk iatCam~a`b`x Xtfhb

FHD \ateo`l f~bt Sbtobs a` Tbloa`fk Bcaàmoc O`xbltfxoa`

@a. ?? Grk 4>64

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Xjb FHD \ateo`l ^f~bt Sbtobs a` Tbloa`fk Bcaàmoc O`xbltfxoa` iacrsbs a` xa~ocs tbkfxo`l xa tbloa`fkcaa~btfxoa` f`h o`xbltfxoa` o` xjb ftbfs ai oìtfsxtrcxrtb f`h saix|ftb+ xtfhb f`h o`ybsxmb`x+ ma`b f`hio`f`cb+ f`h tbloa`fk ~rdkoc laahs. Xjb Sbtobs os f vroce-hossbmo`fxo`l+ oìatmfk ~rdkocfxoa` xjfx sbbes x~tayohb oìatmfxoa`+ lb`btfxb hoscrssoa`+ f`h bkocox cammb`xs. \ateo`l ~f~bts ~rdkosjbh r`hbt xjos Sbtobsmf srdsbvrb`xk db ~rdkosjbh bksb|jbtb.

Hosckfombt7

Xjb yob|s bz~tbssbh o` xjos ~f~bt ftb xjasb ai xjb frxjats f`h ha àx `bcbssftok tbikbcx xjb yob|s f`h~akocobs ai xjb Fsof` Hbybka~mb`x Dfè *FHD/ at oxs Dafth ai Laybtàts at xjb laybt`mb`xs xjb tb~tbsb`x.

FHD habs àx lrftf`xbb xjb fccrtfc ai xjb hfxf o`ckrhbh o` xjos ~rdkocfxoa` f`h fccb~xs à tbs~a`sodokoxiat f` ca`sbvrb`cb ai xjbot rsb.

D mfeo`l f` hbsol`fxoa` ai at tbibtb`cb xa f ~ftxocrkft xbttoxat at lbaltf~joc ftbf+ at d rso`l xjb xbtm

car`xt o` xjos hacrmb`x+ FHD habs àx o`xb`h xa mfeb f` grhlmb`xs fs xa xjb kblfk at axjbt sxfxrs ai f` xbttoxat at ftbf.

R`kbss axjbt|osb àxbh+ ( tbibts xa RS hakkfts.

4>64 d Fsof` Hbybka~mb`x DfèGrk 4>64^rdkocfxoa` Sxace @a.739


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Ca`xb`xs Fdsxtfcx y

6. O`xtahrcxoa` 6

4.

Xtfhb Dbx|bb` xjb ^TC f`h FSBF@7 Samb Sx kowbh Ifcxs 4

3. Dtobi Koxbtfxrtb Tbyob| 3

8. Xjb Bsxomfxoa` Sxtfxbl 7 Ca`cb~x+ Mbxjahakal + f`h Hfxf 8

8.6 Ca`cb~x7 Cam~a`b`x Xtfhb f`h Oxs Hbxbtmo`f`xs 8 8.4 Ltfyox Mahbk f`h Oxs Bm~otocfk S~bcoiocfxoa` 2 8.3 Hfxf ?

2. Tbsrkxs ?

2.6 Hbxbtmo`f`xs ai Dokfxbtfk Xtfhb7 Xaxfk ys. Cam~a`b`xXtfhb ?

2.4 ^tagbcxoa` ai FSBF@-^TC Xtfhb Ika|s itam FCIXF 66 2.3 Om~kocfxoa` iat FSBF@-^TC Xtfhb ^fxxbt` f`h Xtfhb

Hoybtsoa` 64 9. Ca`ckrsoa`s 63

Tbibtb`cbs 68

FHD \ateo l ^f~bt Sbtobs a` Tbloa`fk Bca`amoc O`xbltfxoa` 34

Xfdkbs

6. ^ba~kbs Tb~rdkoc ai Cjo`f f`h FSBF@ Xtfhb+ 6?:84>>? 64>>? 6:3. FSBF@ Mbmdbts f`h xjb ^ba~kbs Tb~rdkoc ai Cjo`f+

Xtfhb Sjftb *"/ 6? 8. Tbsrkxs iat Dokfxbtfk *Xaxfk/ Xtfhb Ika|s+ Fkk Car`xtobs+

6?:>4>>: 4>2. Tbsrkxs iat O`xtf-O`hrsxt Xtfhb Ika|s+ Fkk Car`xtobs+

6?:>4>>: 469. Om~fcx ai FCIXF a` FSBF@ f`h xjb ^ba~kbs Tb~rdkoc

ai Cjo`f Xtfhb Ika|s *dokkoa` ( fx 4>>: ~tocbs/ 44>: ~tocbs/ 43


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Iolrtbs

6. Lta|xj o` xjb ^ba~kbs Tb~rdkoc ai Cjo`fs Om~atx itamf`h Bz~atx xa xjb \atkh+ 6??>? *"/ 48

4. Xjb ^ba~kbs Tb~rdkoc ai Cjo`fs Om~atx itam f`h Bz~atxxa FSBF@+ 6?:84>>? *dokkoa` (/ 483.6 Mfgat Xtfho`l ^ftx`bts ai xjb ^ba~kbs Tb~rdkoc ai

Cjo`f+ 6??? ) 4>>? *"/ 42 3.4 Mfgat Xtfho`l ^ftx`bts ai FSBF@+ 4>>? *"/ 42

8. Xtfhb Sxtrcxrtb ai Sbkbcxbh FSBF@ Car`xtobs |oxjxjb ^ba~kbs Tb~rdkoc ai Cjo`f+ 4>>: *mokkoa` (/ 49

F~~b`hozbs

F. Hbtoyfxoa` ai xjb Hbxbtmo`f`xs ai Cam~a`b`x Xtfhb Ika| 4:D. Hfxf Hbscto~xoa`s f`h Sartcbs 3>


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Fdsxtfcx

Xjos ~f~bt rsbs f` bzxb`hbh ltfyox mahbk xa sjbh koljx a` xjb om~fcx ai xjb itbb xtfhbftbf fltbbmb`x dbx|bb` xjb Fssacofxoa` ai Sarxjbfsx Fsof` @fxoa`s *FSBF@/ f`h xjb^ba~kb,s Tb~rdkoc ai Cjo`f *^TC/ a` xjb mbmdbts xtfhb ika|s f`h xtfhb ~fxxbt`s. @b|hbxbtmo`f`xs xjfx cf~xrtb xjb toso`l om~atxf`cb ai lkadfk ~tahrcxoa` sjfto`l f`h o`xtf-tbloa`fk xtfhb o` ~ftxs f`h cam~a`b`xs o` Bfsx Fsof ftb ~ta~asbh. Tbsrkxs itam xjbbzxb`hbh ltfyox mahbk sja| xjfx xjb itbb xtfhb fltbbmb`x kbfhs xa srdsxf`xofkk joljbt dokfxbtfk xtfhb dbx|bb` FSBF@ f`h xjb ^TC+ matb xjf` |jfx f ca`yb`xoa`fk ltfyoxmahbk ~tbhocxs. Xjb o`ctbfsb os ca`cb`xtfxbh o` xjb FSBF@ car`xtobs |oxj sxta`lbt o`hrsxtofk ko`eflbs |oxj xjb ^TC.

Eb |aths7 FCIXF+ ltfyox mahbk+ ~ftxs f`h cam~a`b`xs xtfhb.

GBK Ckfssoiocfxoa 7 I6


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Xjb Om~fcx ai FCIXF a` ^ba~kb,s Tb~rdkoc ai Cjo`f-FSBF@ Xtfhb { 6

6. O`xtahrcxoa`

Xjb Fssacofxoa` ai Sarxjbfsx Fsof` @fxoa`s *FSBF@/xjb ^ba~kbs Tb~rdkoc ai Cjo`f*^TC/ itbb xtfhb fltbbmb`x at FCIXF cfmb o`xa biibcx a` 6 Gf`rft 4>6>. Ox caybts fitbb xtfhb ftbf |oxj xjb joljbsx ~a~rkfxoa` *6.? dokkoa`/ f`h f` bcaàmoc sowb `bzx a`k xaxjfx ai xjb @atxj Fmbtocf` Itbb-Xtfhb Ftbf *@FIXF/ f`h xjb Brta~bf` Ròa` *BR/. Fs~ftx ai xjb fltbbmb`x+ xjb fybtflb xftoii a` FSBF@-atolo` bz~atxs xa ^TC |fs ka|btbhitam ?.: ~btcb`x xa >.6 ~btcb`x o` 4>6>+ |jokb xjb fybtflb xftoii a` ^TC-atolo` bz~atxs xaxjb soz atolo`fk FSBF@ mbmdbtsDtr`bo Hftrssfkfm+ O`ha`bsof+ Mfkf sof+ xjb^joko~~o`bs+ So`lf~atb f`h Xjfokf`h|fs tbhrcbh itam 64.: ~btcb`x xa >.9 ~btcb`x. D4>62+ xjb ~akoc ai wbta-xftoii tfxb iat ?> ~btcb`x ai Cjo`bsb laahs os bz~bcxbh xa bzxbxa xjb iart `b| FSBF@ mbmdbtsCfmdahof+ xjb Kfa ^ba~kbs Hbmactfxoc Tb~rdkoc*^HT/+ M f`mft f`h Yobx @fm *Zo`jrf`bx 4>6>/.

@rmbtars sxrhobs f`h tb~atxs jfyb hacrmb`xbh xjb db`bioxs+ a~~atxròxobs+ f`hcjfkkb`lbs ai FCIXF xa oxs mbmdbt car`xtobs *Cjof 4>>25 Xa`lwa` 4>>2/. F eb

cjfkkb`lb os xjfx FCIXF mf o`xb`soi cam~bxoxoa` fma`l mbmdbt car`xtobs f`h kbfh xasolòiocf`x gad kassbs. Ox mf fksa tbhrcb sacofk |bkiftb oi xjb biibcxs ai xtfhb hoybtshamo`fxb xtfhb ctbfxoa`. Sxokk+ xjb mfo` fxxtfcxoa` ai FCIXF os xjfx ox aiibts a~~atxròxobs f`h db`bioxs xa ca`srmbts f`h iotms o` mbmdbt car`xtobs. Ca`srmbtsdb`biox itam jfyo`l fccbss xa f |ohb yftobx f`h cjbf~bt ~tahrcxs f`h ~tahrcb. Mf` FSBF@ iotms o` ~ftxocrkft cf` xf~ matb bfsok o`xa xjb Cjo`bsb mftebx+ xjb ifsxblta|o`l mftebx o` xjb |atkh. Xjb tbmayfk ai xftoiis fksa fkka|s itbbt ika|s ai o`xbtmbhofxblaahs dbx|bb` xjb x|a tbloa`s+ db`bioxo`l ~tahrcbts fx bybt sxflb ai ~tahrcxoa` f`hhbb~bò`l tbloa`fk bcaàmoc o`xbltfxoa`. Dbcfrsb ai xjb o`ctbfsbh solòiocf`cb ai ~tahrcxoa` itflmb`xfxoa` o` daxj tbloa`s+ ox os xjbtbiatb rsbirk xa o`ybsxolfxb matb ckasbja| xjb itbb xtfhb fltbbmb`x |okk byb`xrfkk tbsjf~b ~tahrcxoa` f`h xtfhb tbkfxoa`sjo~sdbx|bb` xjb ^TC f`h xjb FSBF@ car`xtobs.

D rso`l f` bzxb`hbh ltfyox mahbk xjfx xfebs o`xa fccar`x dokfxbtfk om~atxs+ bz~atxs ftbkfxbh xtfhb o` ~ftxs f`h cam~a`b`xs dbx|bb` xjb ^TC f`h xjb FSBF@ car`xtobs+ |bàxb xjfx FCIXF fiibcxs dokfxbtfk xtfhb o` ~ftxs f`h cam~a`b`xs yof f` fhhoxoa`fkcjf``bk ai ctass-car`xt o`hrsxtofk koèflbs. \b ca`gbcxrtb xjfx oi xtfhb dbx|bb`mbmdbt car`xtobs os mfo`k o` cam~a`b`xs+ xjb` xjb iatmfxoa` ai xjb itbb xtfhb ftbf oskoebk xa lb`btfxb matb a~~atxròxobs xjf` oi xtfhb |fs o` io`fk laahs fka`b. Xjbfhhoxoa`fk xtfhb a~~atxròxobs camb itam xjb io`bt s~bcofkowfxoa`s o` xjb ~tahrcxoa` chrb xa xtfhb kodbtfkowfxoa`. Xjos yob| os tbkfxoybk àybk f`h cam~kbmb`x bzosxo`l rso`l cam~rxfdkb lb`btfk bvrokodtorm *CLB/ mahbks f`h ltfyox mahbks *Cjotfxjoyf4>>45 Tadbtxs 4>>85 ^fte bx fk. 4>>:5 ^fte bx fk. 4>6>/. Xjb bzosxo`l sxrhobs lb`btfkkfssrmb xjfx xtfhb ika|s dbx|bb` car`xtobs ftb mfo`k o` io`fk laahs f`h ftb xjbtbiatb

hbxbtmo`bh d ca`yb`xoa`fk ifcxats srcj fs car`xt sowb f`h oxs koyo`l sxf`hfths.Ja|bybt+ xjb mf r`hbtbsxomfxb xjb om~fcx ai f itbb xtfhb ftbf oi xjb `fxrtb ai xtfhbfma`l mbmdbt car`xtobs jfs f kftlb f`h lta|o`l ~ta~atxoa` ai cam~a`b`x xtfhb fs o`xjb cfsb ai FCIXF.

Xjos ~f~bt foms xa o`ybsxolfxb *6/ ja| xtfhb o` ~ftxs f`h cam~a`b`xs mf hoiibt itamxtfhb o` io`fk laahs fs f ca`sbvrb`cb ai FCIXF5 *4/ ja| mrcj xtfhb ika|s f`h xtfhb~fxxbt` dbx|bb` xjb ^TC f`h xjb FSBF@ car`xtobs |arkh cjf`lb fixbt FCIXF5 f`h *3/


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4 { \ateo`l ^f~bt Sbtobs a` Tbloa`fk Bcaàmoc O`xbltfxoa` @a. ??

|jbxjbt ltbfxbt o`xbltfxoa` dbx|bb` xjb ^TC f`h FSBF@ |arkh xjtbfxb` xtfhb dbx|bb`xjb ^TC at FSBF@ |oxj à`-mbmdbt car`xtobs.

Xjb mfo` tbsrkxs ftb fs iakka|s. Iotsx+ d bz~kocoxk fccar`xo`l iat cam~a`b`x xtfhb

FCIXF |okk jfyb f srdsxf`xofkk kftlbt om~fcx a` xjb xtfhb ika|s dbx|bb` xjb ^TC f`h FSBF@ xjf` |jfx xjb bzosxo`l koxbtfxrtb ~tbhocxsftar`h 42 ~bt cb`x matb *RS(383dokkoa` fx 4>>: ca`sxf`x ~tocbs/+ |jocj os matb xjf` hardkb xjb bzosxo`l ~tagbcxoa`s oCjotfxjoyfx *4>>4/+ f`h Kbb f`h Mb`sdtrlljb *4>>>: *Iolrtb 6/ |fs xjb solòiocf`x o`ctbfsb o` dokfxbtfk xtfhb |oxj FSBF@+ bs~bcofkk

fixbt xjb ^TCs fccbssoa` xa xjb \atkh Xtfhb Atlfòwfxoa` *\XA/ o` 4>>6 *Iolrtb 4/. O`6??: xaxfk xtfhb dbx|bb` xjb ^TC f`h FSBF@ fmar`xbh xa fdarx (48 dokkoa` *Xfdkb 6/.Ox o`ctbfsbh `bftk xb`-iakh xa (436 dokkoa` o` 4>>:+ fybtflo`l matb xjf` 4> ~btcb`x f``rfk lta|xj. O` fhhoxoa`+ xtfhb dbx|bb` xjb ^TC f`h FSBF@ jfs dbcamb matbom~atxf`x xa bfcj axjbts xaxfk xtfhb. Dbx|bb` 6??? xa 4>>? FSBF@s sjftb o` xjb^TCs xaxfk xtfhb o`ctbfsbh mftebhk + |jokb xjb sjftb ai xjb RS f`h Gf~f`+ xjb ^TCsmfgat xtfho`l ~ftx`bts ibkk *Iolrtb 3.6/. O` 4>>?+ FSBF@ dbcfmb xjb ^TCs iartxjkftlbsx xtfho`l ~ftx`bt fccar`xo`l iat 6>.4 ~btcb`x ai xjb ^TCs xaxfk xtfhb+ |jocj osckasb xa Gf~f`s sjftb. F`h o` 4>>?+ xjb ^TC dbcfmb FSBF@s kftlbsx xtfho`l ~ftx`bt arxsohb ai FSBF@ *Iolrtb 3.4/. Xjb ^TC fksa dbcfmb FSBF@s kftlbsx sartcb ai om~atxs *fccar`xo`l iat 63.3" ai xaxfk om~atxs/ f`h xjoth kftlbsx bz~atx mftebx*fccar`xo`l iat 6>.6" ai xaxfk bz~atxs/.

O` xbtms ai dokfxbtfk xtfhb ~fxxbt`+ xjbtb jfs dbb` f sjoix itam ~tomft laahs xamf`rifcxrto`l laahs. Itam 6?


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ai xjb sjftb ai mfcjo`bt f`h xtf`s~atx bvro~mb`x o` xaxfk FSBF@ bz~atxs xa ^TC itam6:" o` 6?:> xa 8?" o` 4>>2 f`h oxs sjftb o` xaxfk FSBF@ om~atxs itam ^TC itam :" xa2


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mbmdbt car`xtobs boxjbt xjtarlj xftoii crxs *sr~~k -sohb ifcxat/ at o`ctbfsbs o` LH^*hbmf`h-sohb ifcxat/+ |jbtb xjb `bx biibcx os bsxomfxbh ftar`h 4> xa 8> ~btcb`x. A` xjbaxjbt jf`h+ Tadbtxs *4>>8/ f`h _rf` *4>6>/ rsb xjb ltfyox mahbk f`h sxomrkfxbhoiibtb`x scb`ftoas ai o`camb o`ctbfsbs f`h!at xftoii tbhrcxoa`s.8 Bsxomfxbh tbsrkxs itam

xjbsb sxrhobs+ fkxjarlj hoiibtb`x o` mflòxrhb itam xjb CLB sxrhobs+ lb`btfkk caìotm fko`bft lta|xj xtfgbcxat ai xtfhb dbx|bb` xjb ^TC f`h FSBF@.

Fkxjarlj daxj xjb CLB f`h ltfyox mahbks ~tayohb bsxomfxbs ai dokfxbtfk xtfhb om~fcai FCIXF+ xjb jfyb xjbot komoxfxoa`s. CLB tbsrkxs ftb dfsbh a` bsxomfxbh cabiiocobàx fccar`xbh iat o` xjb mahbk f`h xjrs cf`àx db sxfxosxocfkk ybtoiobh. Matb om~atxf`x+~tagbcxoa`s itam xjb mahbk ha àx hosxo`lrosj dbx|bb` xtfhb o` ~ftxs f`h cam~a`b`xsf`h xtfhb o` io`fk laahs. Fs xa db hoscrssbh kfxbt+ xjb om~fcx ai f itbb xtfhb fltbbmb`xa` io`fk laahs xtfhb hoiibts itam oxs om~fcx a` cam~a`b`xs xtfhb. So`cb xjb fcxrfkdokfxbtfk xtfhb dbx|bb` xjb ^TC f`h FSBF@ cam~tosb mfo`k ai ~ftxs f`h cam~a`b`xs+sxrhobs xjfx ha àx fccar`x iat xjbsb ftb koebk xa lb`btfxb moskbfho`l tbsrkxs. Xjbltfyox mahbk+ a` xjb axjbt jf`h+ jfs f` fhyf`xflb aybt xjb CLB mahbks iat àx tbk o`l

a` mf` hbmf`h f`h srdsxoxrxoa` bkfsxocoxobs *|jocj ftb adxfo`bh bzxbt`fkk / iatsomrkfxoa`. Xjrs+ ox os matb sxtfoljxiat|fth xa ~tayohb sxfxosxocfk bsxomfxoa` a` xjb omai itbb xtfhb fltbbmb`x a` dokfxbtfk xtfhb. @bybtxjbkbss+ xjb ca`yb`xoa`fk ltfyox mahsxokk habs àx cf~xrtb xjb sfkob`x ibfxrtb ai toso`l xtfhb o` ~ftxs f`h cam~a`b`xs. Oolàtbs xjb o`ctbfsbh cam~a`b`x xtfhb o` xjb mfcjo`bt f`h xtf`s~atx bvro~mb`xo`hrsxtobs+ |jbtbo` f kftlb `rmdbt ai mrkxo-kf btbh ybtxocfk ~tahrcxoa` ~tacbssbs xfeb~kfcb. Xjbtbiatb+ xjos ~f~bt ca`xtodrxbs xa xjb koxbtfxrtb d bzxb`ho`l xjb ltfyox maxa bz~kocoxk fccar`x iat xjb ~tahrcxoa` koèflbs o`jbtb`x o` cam~a`b`xs xtfhb.

8. Xjb Bsxomfxoa` Sxtfxbl 7 Ca`cb~x+ Mbxjahakal + f`h Hfxf

8.6 Ca`cb~x7 Cam~a`b`x Xtfhb f`h Oxs Hbxbtmo`f`xsSxf`hfth xtfhb xjbatobs ~asox xjfx ~tahrcxoyox f`h cam~ftfxoyb fhyf`xflb hoiibtb`cbsfctass car`xtobs ftb eb htoybts ai o`xbt`fxoa`fk xtfhb. Bm~otocfkk xjbsb htoybts jfyha`b |bkk o` bz~kfoò`l xjb o`xbt-o`hrsxt xtfhb dbx|bb` hbybka~bh f`h hbybka~o`lcar`xtobs *Kba`xobi 6?235 Kbfmbt 6?:>5 Xtbikbt 6??2/. F xjoth htoybt r`hbt xjb fmdox`b| xtfhb xjbat *Etrlmf` 6?


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ctass-car`xt o`hrsxtofk koèflbs fka`l |oxj xjbot cam~ftfxoyb fhyf`xflbs+ |jocj ftbhbxbtmo`bh d b`ha|mb`x f`h tbkfxoyb ~tahrcxoyox . Xjoth+ xtfhb |oxj xjb tbsx ai |atkmf o`ctbfsb so`cb à`-mbmdbt car`xtobs mf fksa db o`yakybh o` xjb ~tahrcxoa` cjfo`+|jocj o` xrt` tbhrcbs xjb xtfhb hoybtsoa` biibcxs ai f itbb xtfhb ftbf. O`xroxoybk + |jb` f

car`xt s~bcofkowbs o` io`bt sxflbs ai f lkadfk ~tahrcxoa` cjfo`+ ox sartcbs hoiibtb`cam~kbmb`xft cam~a`b`xs itam hoiibtb`x xtfho`l ~ftx`bts. Xjos mbf`s |jb` xtfhb o`~ftxs f`h cam~a`b`xs o`ctbfsbs dbx|bb` x|a mbmdbt car`xtobs o` f `b|k iatmbh itbbxtfhb ftbf+ ~ftx f`h cam~a`b`x xtfhb |oxj axjbt car`xtobs o` xjb lkadfk ~tahrcxoa` cjfo`fksa o`ctbfsbs. Xjos os byb` matb om~atxf`x oi xtfhb kodbtfkowfxoa`s b`cartflb hbb~b~tahrcxoa` s~bcofkowfxoa`. Xjfx os+ om~atxo`l matb ~ftxs f`h cam~a`b`xs tfosb~tahrcxoyox f`h tbhrcbs casx ai o`xbtmbhofxb o`~rxs+ |jocj o` xrt` sxtb`lxjb`s fcar`xt s cam~ftfxoyb fhyf`xflb o` s~bcoioc sxflbs ai lkadfk ~tahrcxoa` cjfo`. Xjrs+ fò`ctbfsb o` om~atxs ai ~ftxs f`h cam~a`b`xs itam f mbmdbt car`xt kbfhs xa fò`ctbfsb o` om~atxs o` axjbt ~ftxs f`h cam~a`b`xs itam boxjbt xjb sfmb at hoiibtb`xmbmdbt car`xtobs *at byb` car`xtobs arxsohb xjb itbb xtfhb ftbf/. Fx xjb sfmb xomb+dbcfrsb ai xjb ka|bt casx ai ~tahrcxoa`+ xjbtb ftb matb bz~atxs ai boxjbt ~ftxs f`h

cam~a`b`xs at io`fk laahs xa xjb sfmb at hoiibtb`x mbmdbt car`xtobs at byb` xjb tbsx ai xjb |atkh.

Xjb |bkk-eà|` sxat ai mfeo`l oâh os f laah bzfm~kb ai lkadfk ~tahrcxoa` sjfto`l xjfxaiibts o`ctbfsbh xtfhb a~~atxròxobs iat car`xtobs |oxjo` f`h arxsohb f itbb xtfhb ftbf.\jokb ox os àx bfs xa xbkk |jocj car`xt tbfkk mfebs xjb F~~kb oâh+ a`b xjo`l os ckbfos àx RS *Yftof` 4>>


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+ *6/

|jbtb kòm~atx gex os xjb `fxrtfk kalftoxjm ai xjb yfkrb ai car`xt gs om~atx itam car`xte fx xombx . Xjos yftofdkb os rsbh fs xjb hb~b`hb`x yftofdkb tfxjbt xjf` xaxfk xtfhb dbx|bb`

g f`h e o` athbt xa hosxo`lrosj xjb fs mmbxtoc om~fcx ai itbb xtfhb fltbbmb`x aòm~atxo`l f`h bz~atxo`l car`xtobs *Srdtfmfòf` f`h \bo 4>>>3/.O` ~ftxocrkft+ LH^ sbtybs fs f ~taz iat ~tahrcxoa` cf~fcox iat f` bz~atxbt at mftebxsowb iat f` om~atxbt+ |jokb LH^ ~bt cf~oxf sbtybs fs f ~taz iat o`camb kbybk f`hca`srm~xoa` ~tbibtb`cb. W gex s ftb yftofdkbs rsbh xa ~taz iat mrkxokfxbtfk tbsosxf`cb at xtf`sfcxoa` casxs fssacofxbh |oxj xtfho`l. Xjb o`ckrhb ltbfxbt cotckb hosxf`cb dbx|bb` g f`h e + f`h hrmmobs iat camma` kf`lrflb+ sjftbh dathbts f`h oskf`hs.\XAQM gx os fhrmm yftofdkb iat om~atxbt g |ja os f \XA mbmdbt+ |jokb \XAQZ ex os f hrmmyftofdkb iat bz~atxbt e |ja os f \XA mbmdbt. IXF gex os f hrmm yftofdkb xjfx xfebs a` fyfkrb ai a`b oi g f`h e dbka`l xa f camma` itbb xtfhb ftbf at camma` mftebx o` bft x . Fksa+ HX x os f bft hrmm xa ca`xtak iat xomb-s~bcoioc biibcxs.

Xjb fiatbmb`xoa`bh ftb xjb sxf`hfth yftofdkbs o` f ltfyox mahbk. Xa dbxxbt cf~xrtb xjbibfxrtbs ai ~ftx f`h cam~a`b`x xtfhb+ x|a fhhoxoa`fk yftofdkbs ftb o`xtahrcbh. Xjb iotsx osxjb `fxrtfk kalftoxjm ai f` om~atxbts xaxfk om~atxs itam xjb tbsx ai xjb |atkh+kòm~atx g-ex +f`h xjb axjbt os xjb `fxrtfk kalftoxjm ai f` om~atxbts xaxfk bz~atxs+k`bz~atx gx . Xjb iotsxyftofdkb os rsbh xa fccar`x iat cam~kbmb`xft at srdsxoxrxoa` biibcxs ai xtfhb dbx|bb` fxtfho`l car`xt -~fot f`h f xjoth car`xt . Bocjb`ltbb` bx fk. *4>>>2/ ~tayohb xjbatbxocfk grsxoiocfxoa` iat rso`l xjos yftofdkb f`h oxs sol` xa ohb`xoi f car`xt s cam~ftfxfhyf`xflb. Jbtb+ |b rsb ox a`k iat srdsxoxrxfdokox at cam~kbmb`xftox ai ~tahrcxs. Xsrdsxoxrxoa` biibcx hamo`fxbs oi car`xte f`h xjb tbsx ai xjb |atkh+ e + cam~bxbs |oxjbfcj axjbt+ xjfx os+ xjb cabiiocob`x ai kòm~atx g-ex os `blfxoyb. Oi car`xtg o`ctbfsbs oxsom~atxs itam e f`h+ e cam~bxbs |oxje + xjb g |okk om~atx kbss itame . A` xjb axjbt jf`h+xjb cam~kbmb`xft biibcx hamo`fxbs oi g o`ctbfsbs oxs om~atxs itam e fx xjb sfmb xombfs oxs om~atxs itame + xjfx os+ xjb cabiiocob`x ai kòm~atx g-ex os ~asoxoyb. Xjb oâh bzfm~kb oso`sxtrcxoyb. Xa mbbx f` o`ctbfsb iat oâh+ ifcxatobs o` xjb ^TC |okk o`ctbfsb xjbot om~ai jfth htoybs itam xjb ^joko~~o`bs xalbxjbt |oxj xjbot om~atxs ai yohba!mrkxombh~tacbssat cjo~ itam Xfo~bo+Cjo`f *f xjoth car`xt /.

Xjb sbca`h yftofdkb *k`bz~atx gx / os rsbh xa cf~xrtb xjb sb`soxoyox ai om~atxs o` ~ftxs f`hcam~a`b`xs o` tbs~a`sb xa cjf`lbs o` f` om~atxbts bz~atxs. Ca`sohbt f cfsb |jbtbbz~atx ai jfth-hoses d f mbmdbt car`xt *sf Xjfokf`h/ tosbs o` tbs~a`sb xa f`


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Xjb Om~fcx ai FCIXF a` ^ba~kb,s Tb~rdkoc ai Cjo`f-FSBF@ Xtfhb { >9/. ^tfcxocfkk + ox os fksa hoiiocrkx xa cfkcrkfxb dokcam~a`b`x xtfhb iat fkk ~fotbh car`xtobs. Iatxr`fxbk + cam~a`b`x xtfhb os rsrfkkckfssoiobh o`xa xjb sfmb o`hrsxt fccatho`l xa xjb sxf`hfth o`xbt`fxoa`fk xtfhb cahb*SOXC/ loyb` xjb somokft `fxrtb ai xjb x ~b ai xtfhb. Itam f sxfxosxocfk ~bts~bcxdokfxbtfk cam~a`b`x xtfhb os joljk cattbkfxbh xa dokfxbtfk o`xtf-o`hrsxt xtfhb *Ltom4>>>/. Xjrs+ xjb dokfxbtfk o`xtf-o`hrsxt xtfhb cf` db rsbh fs f` f~~tazomfxoa` xa xjbdokfxbtfk cam~a`b`x xtfhb.

O` xjos ~f~bt+ xjb yfkrb ai dokfxbtfk o`xtf-o`hrsxt xtfhb os hbio`bh fs xjb ~tahrcx ai o`xtf-o`hrsxt xtfhb o`hbz *fx 3-holox kbybk+ SOXC Tby.6/ f`h xjb yfkrb ai dokfxbtfk orsbh iat k`om~atx gex o` Bvrfxoa` 6. Xjos yfkrb ai o`xtf-o`hrsxt xtfhb os rsbh fs xjbhb~b`hb`x yftofdkb xjfx f~~tazomfxbs xjb dokfxbtfk cam~a`b`x xtfhb. Xjrs+ xjb bzxb`hbltfyox mahbk cf` db tb-bsxomfxbh fs iakka|s7

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+ *4/


16/48

: { \ateo`l ^f~bt Sbtobs a` Tbloa`fk Bcaàmoc O`xbltfxoa` @a. ??

|jbtb kò`xtfQom~atx gex os xjb kalftoxjm ai xjb yfkrb ai o`xtf-o`hrsxt om~atxs ai car`xt g itam car`xt e fx xombx.Xjb axjbt yftofdkbs ftb hbio`bh fs o` Bvrfxoa` 6.

Xjb mflòi o`l biibcx ai xjb iatmfxoa` ai f IXF a` cam~a`b`xs xtfhb ai car`xt g

xjtarlj kòm~atx g-ex f`h k`bz~atx gx + os cf~xrtbh d xjb xtfhb mrkxo~kobt xjfx os hbtoybh F~~b`hoz F+ |jocj os dfsbh a` xjb bzxb`hbh ltfyox mahbk somokft xa Bvrfxoa` 4 fdaybXjb mrkxo~kobt sja|s xjfx xjb aybtfkk om~fcx ai IXF a` xjb yakrmb cam~a`b`xs xtfhb oàx hbxbtmo`bh sakbk d 65 6 f`h 4 ~kf solòiocf`x takbs. So`cb Bvrfxoa` 4 bzfmo`bsxjb hbxbtmo`f`xs ai cam~a`b`x xtfhb rso`l xjb sfmb mahbk s~bcoiocfxoa` fs Bvrfxoa` 6+|b cf` cam~ftb xjb bsxomfxbh cabiiocob`xs ai IXF gex +kòm~atx g-ex f`h k`bz~atx gx o` daxjbvrfxoa`s xa sbb |jbxjbt Bvrfxoa` 4 cf` dbxxbt bz~kfo` yftofxoa`s o` cam~a`b`x xtfhb.S~bcoiocfkk + oi xjb bsxomfxbh cabiiocob`x ai IXF gex + 6+ os smfkkbt o` Bvrfxoa` 4 xjf` o`Bvrfxoa` 6+ xjos srllbsxs xjfx xjb ca`yb`xoa`fk xtfhb hbxbtmo`f`x * IXF gex /hbio`bh fsxjb tbkfxoa`sjo~ dbx|bb` IXF gex f`h dokfxbtfk xtfhb ika|cf`àx bz~kfo` cam~a`b`x *at o`xtf-o`hrsxt / xtfhb ika|s fs |bkk fs iat xaxfk xtfhb. ^rx hoiibtb`xk + IXF ca`xtodrxbs xsmfkkbt cjf`lb o` cam~a`b`x xtfhb cam~ftbh xa xaxfk xtfhb. Xjbtbiatb+ iat Bvrfxoa` 4 xa

dbxxbt bz~kfo` cam~a`b`x *at o`xtf o`hrsxt / xtfhb+ ox mrsx fccar`x iat xjb o`xto`cjftfcxbtosxocs ai ctass-car`xt ~tahrcxoa` koèflbs. Xjos srllbsxs xjfx xjb bsxomfxbhcabiiocob`xs 6 f`h 4 o` Bvrfxoa` 4 sjarkh db kftlbt xjf` xjasb o` Bvrfxoa` 6.2

Fs f db`cjmfte+ Bvrfxoa`s 6 f`h 4 ftb iotsx tr` fs ~aakbh AKS tbltbssoa`s. Kfxbt fscam~ftosa`s+ ~f`bk tf`ham f`h iozbh biibcx tbltbssoa`s ftb f~~kobh. Jbxbtascbhfsxocoxtadrsx sxf`hfth bttats ftb rsbh o` fkk bsxomfxoa`s.9 \f`l bx fk. *4>6>/ ca`xb`hs xjfx xjb~f`bk iozbh biibcx tbltbssoa` xjfx ca`xtaks iat xjb xtfhb-~fot iozbh biibcx *at fssrmb gex =r ge %y gex / mf sxokk kbfh xa dofsbh bsxomfxbs. Xjos os dbcfrsb xjb xtfhb-~fot iozbh bi*r ge / mf camb itam xtfho`l ~ftx`bts car`xt s~bcoioc cjftfcxbtosxocs * g f`h e /+ |jocjftb matb koebk xa db cattbkfxbh |oxj xjb bz~kf`fxat yftofdkbs srcj fs M gx f`h Z ex .O`cattbcxk s~bcoi o`l xjb sartcb ai iozbh biibcxs mf kbfh xa b`halb`box ~tadkbm+ s

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2 Matb hbxfokbh oìatmfxoa` a` xjb xtfhb mrkxo~kobt biibcx o`yakyo`l 6 f`h 4 os hoscrssbh o` F~~b`hoz F.9 Frxacattbkfxoa` os r`koebk xa db f` ossrb ca`sohbto`l xjb smfkk bsxomfxbh sfm~kb ~btoah+ sbb hfxf sbcx


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Xjb Om~fcx ai FCIXF a` ^ba~kb,s Tb~rdkoc ai Cjo`f-FSBF@ Xtfhb { ?

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Xjos sxrh rsbs r`dfkf`cbh ~f`bk hfxf ai dokfxbtfk xtfhb ika|s+ o`camb+ ~a~rkfxoa`+hosxf`cb+ lbaltf~jocfk+ crkxrtfk f`h josxatocfk oìatmfxoa` f`h f ib| axjbt ltar~-s~bcoiocmbfsrtbs. Xjb hfxf itam 6?:> xa 4>>> ftb adxfo`bh hotbcxk itam Srdtfmfòf` f`h \bo

*4>>>6 xa 4>>:+ xjb ftb r~hfxbh dfsbh a` xjb O`xbt`fxoa`fkMa`bxft Ir`h *OMI/sHotbcxoa` ai Xtfhb Sxfxosxocs *HAXS/ iat xjb xtfhb hfxf f`h xjb\atkh Dfès \atkh Hbybka~mb`x O`hocfxat *\HO/ iat xjb o`camb f`h ~a~rkfxoa` hfxf.

Dokfxbtfk om~atx yfkrbs *c.o.i. ~tocb/ ftb dfsbh a` xjb tbcaths ai xjb om~atxo`l car`xtobmbfsrtbh o` RS hakkft f`h hbikfxbh d xjb RS CÔ iat rtdf` ftbfs *6?:4 ~tocb/.Lbaltf~jocfk yftofdkbs+ hrmmobs iat \XA f`h IXF mbmdbtsjo~s f`h axjbt hrmmobsftb xfeb` itam Srdtfmfòf` f`h \bo *4>>>:+ bzcb~x xjb kfsx a`b+ |jocj os itam 4>>2 xa 4>>:. Xjos loybs 9ioyb- bft dkaces ai hfxf iat bsxomfxoa`s. \b iakka| Srdtfmfòf` f`h \bo *4>>


18/48

6> { \ateo`l ^f~bt Sbtobs a` Tbloa`fk Bcaàmoc O`xbltfxoa` @a. ??

bz~kf`fxat yftofdkbs ftb aybtbsxomfxbh hrb xa ~axb`xofk cattbkfxoa` dbx|bb` xjbcar`xt -~fot!car`xt -s~bcoioc iozbh biibcxs f`h xjb bz~kf`fxat yftofdkbs fs hoscrssbhfdayb. Fixbt ca`xtakko`l iat xjb car`xt -~fot biibcxs *cakrm`s x|a f`h xjtbb/+ xjb T4 jfslb`btfkk dbcamb kftlbt srllbsxo`l om~taybmb`xs o` xjb tbsrkxs.

Ca`xtakko`l iat car`xt -s~bcoioc biibcxs o`sxbfh ai car`xt -~fot biibcxs f~~bfts xa irtxjbtbhrcb xjb dofs`bss. Xjbtb mf sxokk db samb car`xt -s~bcoioc iozbh biibcxs o` xtbsohrfks |jocj ftb cattbkfxbh |oxj xjb bz~kf`fxat yftofdkbs. Xjrs+ car`xt -s~bcoiociozbh biibcxs ftb ca`xtakkbh iat d bsxomfxo`l Bvrfxoa` 3. Cam~ftbh |oxj cakrm`s a`b xaxjtbb+ cakrm` iart os xjb ~tbibttbh s~bcoiocfxoa`masx ai xjb cabiiocob`xs jfyb xjbbz~bcxbh sol`s f`h ftb sxfxosxocfkk solòiocf`x ca`sosxb`x |oxj ~tbyoars koxbtfx*Dfkh|o` f`h Xflkoaò 4>>95 Srdtfmfòf` f`h \bo 4>>.:36+ joljbt xjf` xjasb adxfo`bhitam xjb axjbt s~bcoiocfxoa`s. Xjb b`sro`l hoscrssoa` |okk iacrs a` xjb tbsrkxs itam xjb~f`bk car`xt -s~bcoioc biibcx mahbk.

Fkk xjb sxf`hfth ltfyox yftofdkbs jfyb xjb bz~bcxbh sol` f`h sxfxosxocfkk solòiocLH^ f`h LH^ ~bt cf~oxf ai daxj om~atxo`l f`h bz~atxo`l car`xtobs ftb ~asoxoyb f`hsolòiocf`x. Xjos os ca`sosxb`x |oxj xjb xjbat xjfx LH^ ~bt cf~oxf jfs f ~asoxoyb biibcx dokfxbtfk xtfhb ika|s aybt f`h fdayb xjfx ai LH^. Xjb `blfxoyb cabiiocob`x ai k`*hosxf`cb/ o`hocfxbs xjfx xjb ka`lbt lbaltf~jocfk hosxf`cb dbx|bb` x|a car`xtobs+ xjb kbssbt os xjbxtfhb dbx|bb` xjbm. Bcaàmobs |jocj sjftb f camma` kf`lrflb f`h dathbt fksa xtfhbmatb |oxj bfcj axjbt. Sa ha bcaàmobs |oxjo` xjb sfmb itbb xtfhb ftbfdokfxbtfk xtfhbo`ctbfsbs d ftar`h 3:.: ~btcb`x oi daxj car`xtobs dbka`l xa xjb sfmb IXF.

Somokftk + xjb ~ta~asbh yftofdkbs ftb solòiocf`x f`h ~asoxoyb. Xaxfk bz~atxs ai car` g *k`bz~atx gx / f`h oxs om~atxs itam xjb tbsx ai xjb |atkh *kòm~atx g-ex /ftb daxj ~asoxoyb f`hsolòiocf`x fx 2 ~btcb`x f`h 6 ~btcb`x kbybks tbs~bcxoybk . F` o`ctbfsb o` xjb xaxfk bz~ai car`xt g o`ctbfsbs oxs om~atxs itam car`xte d fdarx 8.9 ~btcb`x+ |jokb f` o`ctbfsbai car`xt gs om~atxs itam xjb tbsx ai xjb |atkh tfosbs oxs om~atxs itam car`xte d fàxfdkb 3


19/48


sfmb cakrm` o` Xfdkb 8.< Ja|bybt+ xjb cabiiocob`x ai IXF gex o` Xfdkb 2 *>.442/ os smfkkbt xjf` o` Xfdkb 8 *>.3::/. Xjos os ca`sosxb`x |oxj xjb j ~axjbsos xjfx xjb ca`yb`xoa`fk xtfhbhbxbtmo`f`x jfs kbss ~a|bt o` bz~kfoò`l cam~a`b`x xtfhb *at o`xtf-o`hrsxt xtfhb/. Fksa+xjb cabiiocob`x ai xjb om~atxbts xaxfk bz~atxs *k`bz~atx gx / os matb om~atxf`x o` hbxbtmoò`l

xjb om~atxs ai ~ftxs f`h cam~a`b`xs *>.68> o` Xfdkb 2/ xjf` xaxfk om~atxs *>.>89 o` Xfd8/. A` xjb axjbt jf`h+ xjb cabiiocob`x ai xjb om~atxbts om~atxs itam axjbt car`xtobs*kòm~atx g-ex / o` Xfdkb 2 *>.6:8/ os ka|bt xjf` o` Xfdkb 8 *>.3: ftb rsbh fs dfsb. Xjtbb mbxjahs ai ~tagbcxoa`ftb fha~xbh7 *6/ ca`yb`xoa`fk+ *4/ `b|+ f`h *3/ j dtoh. Bfcj mbxjah jfs x|a ~tagbcxoa`sdfsbh a` xjb bsxomfxbs ai Bvrfxoa`s 3 f`h 8. Jb`cb+ xjos ~tahrcbs xjb soz scb`ftoas.: Iat xjb ca`yb`xoa`fk mbxjah+ xjb iotsx ~tagbcxoa` os cfkcrkfxbh fs7 6 dfsbb +|jbtb 6 os xjb cabiiocob`x ai IXF gex itam Bvrfxoa` 3+ |jokb xjb sbca`h ~tagbcxoa` rsbs xjb sfmbiatmrkf drx |oxj6 xfeb` itam Bvrfxoa` 8. Xjbsb ftb ~tbsb`xbh o` xjb xa~ jfki *Scb`ftoa6/ f`h daxxam jfki ai cakrm` x|a *Scb`ftoa 4/+ Xfdkb 9+ tbs~bcxoybk . Xjb `b| mbxjah+a` xjb axjbt jf`h+ rsbs xjb bsxomfxbh cabiiocob`xs ai k`bz~atx gx f`h kòm~atx g-ex o` fhhoxoa`xa xjb bsxomfxbh cabiiocob`x ai IXF gex dfsbh a` Bvrfxoa` 3 *cakrm` 3+ xa~ jfki+ Scb`ftoa3/ f`h Bvrfxoa` 8 *cakrm` 3+ daxxam jfki+ Scb`ftoa 8/. Ox os cfkcrkfxbh fs

6+3 6 4 dfsb * dfsb dfsb/! *6 4 /b + |jbtb 6 f`h 4 ftb xjb bsxomfxbh cabiiocob`xs ai

k`bz~atx gx f`h kòm~atx g-ex dfsbh a` Bvrfxoa`s 3 at 8+ f`h *64 6 4/ os xjb xtfhb mrkxo~kobt *fs ~bt F~~b`hoz F/.

X|a hoiibtb`cbs ai xjb iart ~tagbcxoa`s ftb |atxj joljkoljxo`l. Iotsx+ xjb mfo` hoiibtb`cbdbx|bb` xjb ca`yb`xoa`fk f`h `b| ~tagbcxoa`s os xjfx xjb iatmbt fssrmbs f a`b-aii xtfhb ctbfxoa` biibcx fixbt xjb iatmfxoa` ai f itbb xtfhb ftbf+ |jokb xjb kfxxbt fssrmbs fmrkxo~kocfxoyb om~fcx xjtarlj ltbfxbt xtfhb a~~atxròxobs o` ~ftxs f`h cam~a`b`xs ftosoitam xjb o`xbt`fxoa`fk o`hrsxtofk koèflbs. Fs fkkrhbh xa fdayb+ fixbt xjb itbb xtfhfltbbmb`x+ iotms mf tbfkkacfxb xjbot ~tahrcxoa` fma`l mbmdbt car`xtobs f`h

< O`xbtbsxo`lk + bcaàmobs |oxj camma` kf`lrflb jfyb matb dokfxbtfk cam~a`b`x xtfhb *at o`xtf-o`hrsxtxtfhb/ |oxj bfcj axjbt. F ~assodkb bz~kf`fxoa` os xjfx car`xtobs |oxj camma` kf`lrflb f`h somokft crkxrtbftb matb koebk xa bsxfdkosj ybtxocfk koèflbs xjtarlj ~tahrcxoa` s~bcofkowfxoa`.

: Xjb j dtoh mbxjah |okk db hoscrssbh dbka|.


20/48


s~bcofkowb irtxjbt o` xjb io`bt sxflbs ai ~tahrcxoa` cjfo`. Xjos lb`btfxbs matb xtfhbfma`l mbmdbt car`xtobs. Matbaybt+ fs mbmdbt car`xtobs ftb matb ckasbk koèbhxalbxjbt+ f` o`ctbfsb o` hbmf`h iat f io`fk laah |okk kbfh xa matb om~atxs fs |bkk fsbz~atxs d mbmdbt car`xtobs+ so`cb xjb ~tahrcxoa` ai xjos ròx ai io`fk laah tbvrotbs

~ftxs f`h cam~a`b`xs itam hoiibtb`x car`xtobs *mbmdbt f`h à`-mbmdbt/. Xjb biibcx ai xjos os f mrkxo~kocfxoyb ~tacbss ai xtfhb lta|xj. Sbca`h+ xjb mfo` hoiibtb`cb dbx|bb` xjbx|a ~tagbcxoa`s ai xjb `b| mbxjah os xjfx xjb iotsx os dfsbh a` xjb xaxfk xtfhb mahbk*Bvrfxoa` 3/+ |jocj habs àx hoiibtb`xofxb dbx|bb` io`fk at cam~a`b`x xtfhb+ |jokb xjbsbca`h a` xjb o`xtf-o`hrsxt mahbk *Bvrfxoa` 8/+ |jocj s~bcoiocfkk fccar`xs iat cam~a`b`x xtfhb. Xjrs+ xtfhb ~tagbcxoa` iat cam~a`b`x xtfhb cf` db matb fccrtfxbrso`l xjb cabiiocob`xs ai k`bz~atx gx f`h kòm~atx g-ex itam Bvrfxoa` 8.

Xjb j dtoh mbxjah ai ~tagbcxoa`s os rsbh xa hosxo`lrosj dbx|bb` io`fk f`h cam~a`b`xlaahs o` xjb ~tagbcxoa`s ai xaxfk xtfhb+ om~atxs f`h bz~atxs+ r`koeb xjb ca`yb`xoa`fk f`b| mbxjahs |jocj mfeb à srcj hoiibtb`xofxoa`. O` ~ftxocrkft+ xjb x|a j dtoh ~tagbcxoa`sftb7

Scb`ftoa 2 = U*Scb`ftoa 6/ 6|boljx /] % U*Scb`ftoa 3/ |boljx ]5 f`hScb`ftoa 9 = U*Scb`ftoa 4/ 6|boljx /] % U*Scb`ftoa 8/ |boljx ]+

|jbtb |boljx iat bfcj FSBF@ car`xt os adxfo`bh itam Fxjreatfkf *4>66/+ |jocj os xjb~ta~atxoa` ai cam~a`b`x laahs o` xaxfk xtfhb. @axb xjfx a`k xjb cam~a`b`x sjftb ai xtfhb *|boljx / os srdgbcx xa mrkxo~kobt biibcxs+ xjfx os+ xjb xjoth toljx-jf`h xbtm ai Scb`2 f`h 9 xfeb o`xa fccar`x xjb mrkxo~kobt biibcxs itamk`bz~atx gx f`h kòm~atx g-e ai Bvrfxoa`s3 f`h 8 tbs~bcxoybk . O` bssb`cb+ xjb j dtoh mbxjah fxxbm~xs xa hoiibtb`xofxb xjbx ~bs ai xtfhb o` f~~tazomfxo`l xjb aybtfkk xtfhb ctbfxoa` biibcxs ai FCIXF.

Tbsrkxs itam Xfdkb 9 sja| daxj xjb `b| f`h j dtoh mbxjahs ~tagbcxo`l f kftlbt xtfhbo`ctbfsb xjf` xjb ca`yb`xoa`fk mbxjah. Iat o`sxf`cb+ xaxfk FSBF@ f`h ^TC xtfhb carkho`ctbfsb d fs mrcj fs 8< xa :? ~btcb`x fccatho`l xa xjb `b| mbxjah. \jokb xjb j dtohmbxjah sja|s f` o`ctbfsb d fdarx 3? xa


21/48


Fs iat xjb om~fcx ai FCIXF a` xtfhb dbx|bb` xjb ^TC at FSBF@ f`h xjb tbsx ai xjb|atkh+ xjb bzxb`hbh ltfyox mahbk fksa sja|s samb o`xbtbsxo`l tbsrkxs. Xjbtb jfsfk|f s dbb` f ca`cbt` xjfx xjb ^TC f`h FSBF@ car`xtobs mf cam~bxb |oxj bfcjaxjbt o` f xjoth-car`xt s mftebx fs |bkk fs xjbot a|` hambsxoc mftebxs loyb` xjb

somokftox o` xjb sxflb ai bcaàmoc hbybka~mb`x f`h bz~atx sxtrcxrtb. Ja|bybt+ xjoca`cbt` os kbss yfkoh o` f` b`yota`mb`x |jbtb xtfhb lta|xj os htoyb` mfo`k htoyb` dcam~a`b`x xtfhb |oxj ~tahrcxoa` koèflbs fctass car`xtobs. Fs Bvrfxoa`s 3 f`h 8srllbsx xjbtb os fk|f s f ~asoxoyb cattbkfxoa` dbx|bb` f car`x s xaxfk xtfhb f`h o`xtf-o`hrsxt xtfhb |oxj f s~bcoioc xtfho`l ~ftx`bt f`h oxs xtfhb |oxj xjb tbsx ai xjb |atkh+ xjfxos+ xjb cabiiocob`xs ai k`bz~atx gx f`h kòm~atx g-e o` Xfdkbs 8 f`h 2 ftb fkk ~asoxoyb. Xjosom~kobs xjfx f` o`ctbfsb o` o`xtf-tbloa`fk xtfhb kbfhs xa f` o`ctbfsb o` xtfhb dbx|bb` xjb^TC at FSBF@ car`xtobs |oxj xjb tbsx ai xjb |atkh. O` axjbt |aths+ xtfhb ctbfxoa` biibcxshamo`fxb xtfhb hoybtsoa` biibcxs fixbt xjb bsxfdkosjmb`x ai FCIXF.

9. Ca`ckrsoa`s

O` xjb ~fsx hbcfhb at sa+ Bfsx Fsof` bcaàmobs jfyb o`ctbfso`lk ~ftxoco~fxbh o` io`bthoyosoa` ai kfdat |oxjo` xjb tbloa` s~bcofkowo`l o` a`b at matb sxflbs ai f laahs~tahrcxoa` ~tacbss. Xjos ibfxrtb ai ~tahrcx itflmb`xfxoa` jfs cjf`lbh xjb kf`hscf~b ai xtfhb o` Fsof cjftfcxbtowbh d o`ctbfsbh xtfhb o` ~ftxs f`h cam~a`b`xs. Dokfxbtfk xtfhbika|s dbx|bb` xjb ^TC f`h FSBF@ car`xtobs mottat xjos cjf`lo`l xtfhb ~fxxbt`. Fkxjarlj xjb ^TC-FSBF@ xtfhb jfs o`ctbfsbh srdsxf`xofkk o` xjb ~fsx hbcfhb iakka|o`lsolòiocf`x dokfxbtfk xftoii tbhrcxoa`s+ ja| xjb `b|k bsxfdkosjbh FCIXF |okk om~fcx a` x^TC f`h FSBF@ tbmfo`s f` om~atxf`x f` o`xbtbsxo`l vrbsxoa`. Xjos ~f~bt fxxbm~xs xaf`s|bt xjos itam f xtfhb ika| ~bts~bcxoyb d o`xtahrco`l x|a `b| yftofdkbs xa xjbca`yb`xoa`fk ltfyox mahbk xa xfeb o`xa fccar`x xjb solòiocf`cb ai xtfhb o` ~ftxs f`hcam~a`b`xs.

Xjb eb tbsrkx srllbsxs xjfx FCIXF |okk jfyb f srdsxf`xofkk kftlbt om~fcx a` dokfxbtfxtfhb ika|s dbx|bb` xjb ^TC f`h FSBF@ xjf` |jfx xjb ca`yb`xoa`fk ltfyox mahbk~tbhocxs+ bs~bcofkk loyb` xjb ckasb o`xbt`fxoa`fk ~tahrcxoa` koèflbs f`h jolj ~ta~atxoai xtfhb o` ~ftxs f`h cam~a`b`xs |oxjo` xjb tbloa`. \oxjarx fccar`xo`l iat xjos~jbàmbà`+ ~akoc mfebts f`h drso`bss cammròx mf r`hbtbsxomfxb xjb db`bioxs ai FCIXF f`h mosiatmrkfxb xjbot sxtfxblobs f`h tbs~a`sbs xa `b| xtfhb ctbfxoa` f`h xtfhbhoybtsoa` hrb xa itbb xtfhb fltbbmb`x.

O` fhhoxoa`+ so`cb FCIXF jfs fs mmbxtoc om~fcxs a` xtfhb o` io`fk laahs f`h xtfhb o`~ftxs f`h cam~a`b`xs+ xjb bzxb`hbh ltfyox mahbk xjfx fhgrsx iat xtfhb o` ~ftxs f`hcam~a`b`xs cf` sjbh koljx a` xjb xtfhb ~fxxbt` dbx|bb` xjb ^TC f`h o`hoyohrfk FSBF@

car`xtobs. Lb`btfkk + fs bz~bcxbh xjb joljbt xjb ~ta~atxoa` ai cam~a`b`x xtfhb o` xjbdokfxbtfk xtfhb dbx|bb` mbmdbt car`xtobs+ xjb kftlbt os xjb o`ctbfsb o` dokfxbtfk xtfhika|s fixbt xjb iatmfxoa` ai FCIXF. Io`fkk + so`cb xtfhb o` ~ftxs f`h cam~a`b`xs osrsrfkk cam~kbmb`xft fma`l mbmdbt car`xtobs *htoyb` d xjb o`xbt`fxoa`fk ~tahrcxoakoèflbs/+ xtfhb ctbfxoa` mf hamo`fxb xtfhb hoybtsoa` biibcxs.


22/48


Tbibtb`cbs

G.B. F`hbtsa`. 6?


23/48


@. Ltom|fhb. 4>>>.O`xbt`fxoa`fk Xtfhb7 @b| ^fxxbt`s ai Xtfhb+ ^tahrcxoa` f`h O`ybsxmb`x . 4`h bh. @b| _ate7 Tarxkbhlb. ~. >:. Tbloa`fkosm fs f` B`lo`b ai Mrkxokfxbtfkosm7 F Cfsb

iat f So`lkb Bfsx Fsof` IXF.FHD \ateo`l ^f~bt Sbtobs a` Tbloa`fk Bcaàmoc O`xbltfxoa`. 68. Mfòkf7 Fsof` Hbybka~mb`x Dfè.

^. Etrlmf`. 6?


24/48


O. ^fte+ S. ^fte+ f`h S. Eom. 4>6>.F Itbb Xtfhb Ftbf ai xjb Fsof ^fcoioc *IXFF^/7 Os OxHbsotfdkb1 M^TF ^f~bt . 499:>. Mròcj7 Ròybtsox Kodtft ai Mròcj.

^. ^ j`b`. 6?93. F Xb`xfxoyb Mahbk iat xjb Yakrmb ai Xtfhb dbx|bb` Car`xtobs.

\bkx|otxscjfixkocjbs Ftcjoy . Df`h ?> *Jbix 6/. ~~. ?3??.E. ^rkkofo`b`. 6?93. F \atkh Xtfhb Sxrh 7 F` Bcaàmbxtoc Mahbk ai xjb ^fxxbt` ai xjb

Cammahox Ika|s o` O`xbt`fxoa`fk Xtfhb o` 6?8:6?9>.Beaàmosef Sfmir`hbxs Xohsetoi . 4. ~~. >8. F Ltfyox Sxrh ai xjb ^ta~asbh Cjo`f'FSBF@ Itbb Xtfhb Ftbf.Xjb O`xbt`fxoa`fk Xtfhb Gart`fk. 6: *8/. ~~. 332323.

F.E. Tasb. 4>>8. Ha \b Tbfkk Eà| xjfx xjb \XA O`ctbfsbs Xtfhb1Fmbtocf` Bcaàmoc Tbyob|. ?8 *6/. ~~. ?:668.

F. Srdtfmfòf f`h S.G. \bo. 4>>6 Gf`rft .jxx~7!!`b|s.zo`jrf`bx.cam!b`lkosj!4>6>->6!>6!ca`xb`xQ6466>. Cjo`fs' B`lflbmb`x o` Mrkxokfxbtfk O`sxoxrxoa`s7 R`hbtsxf`ho`l xjbXtfhb Ctbfxoa` Om~fcx ai xjb FSBF@Cjo`f' Itbb Xtfhb Ftbf. Xjbsos srdmoxxbhxa xjb Hb~ftxmb`x ai ^rdkoc âkoc ai Hreb Ròybtsox . Hrtjfm+ @atxj Cftako`f.
http://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/26680.htmlhttp://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/26680.htmlhttp://ideas.repec.org/s/pra/mprapa.htmlhttp://ideas.repec.org/s/pra/mprapa.htmlhttp://ideas.repec.org/s/pra/mprapa.htmlhttp://ideas.repec.org/s/pra/mprapa.htmlhttp://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/26680.htmlhttp://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/26680.html


25/48

Xjb Om~fcx ai FCIXF a` ^ba~kb,s Tb~rdkoc ai Cjo`f-FSBF@ Xtfhb { 6>?

_bft Yfkrb *( mokkoa`/ F``rfk Lta|xj Tfxb *"/

Bz~atx Om~atx XaxfkXtfhb Bz~atx Om~atxXaxfkXtfhb

6?:8 4+>34 :26 4+::36?:2 4+92< 6+664 3+? 6+22> 3+82? *4:/ 3? *:/6?:< 4+3?> 4+694 8+224 42 3? 346?:: 4+: 3+?>8 3+>9> 9+?98 44 *6?/ >6??6 8+43? 3+?6< :+629 ? 4: 6:6 6> 63 666??3 2+38> 9+3>8 66+988 68 83 4:6??8 6 4>+3+3>: 6>+:2> 46+62: *4/ 6> 86??< 64+: 64+822 42+693 43 62 6?6??: 66+698 64+2> 6>6 6:+3>4 43+2:8 36+6?< 28+>3 3>+?4< 88 84+:?? 94+?9< 6>2+:99 3? 33 324>>2 22+39< +396 4? 6? 434>>9 +:3: 4? 6? 434>>< ?8+:+2>? 4>3+449 33 46 494>>: 668+36< 66>3 436+34> 46 : 684>>? :6+2?6 ?9+2?8 6


26/48

6: { \ateo`l ^f~bt Sbtobs a` Tbloa`fk Bca`amoc O`xbltfxoa` @a. ??

Xfdkb 47 FSBF@s Bz~atxs xa f`h Om~atxs itam xjb ^ba~kbs Tb~rdkoc ai Cjo`f+d ^tahrcx+ 6?:>4>>?

_bft

Fltocrkxrtfk

f`h mo`btfklaahsSOXC >-8

CjbmocfksSOXC 2

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laahs ckfssoiobhcjobik d mfxbtofkSOXC 9

Mfcjo`bt f`h

xtf`s~atxbvro~mb`xSOXC 22 ? 43 : 9 6. 89 : 4: 64 9 8.96??2 6: 6> 33 4: 64 6>.>4>>> 6< < 69 8? 6> 6:.64>>2 66 < 6< 2< ? 2?.>: < ? 46 23 6> 6>?.94>>? 6> : 68 9> ?


27/48


28/48


Xfdkb 87 Tbsrkxs iat Dokfxbtfk *Xaxfk/ Xtfhb Ika|s+ Fkk Car`xtobs+ 6?:>4>>:

Yftofdkbs AKS*6/

^f`bk Tf`hamBiibcxs

*4/

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*3/

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k`*tbfk LH^ g/ >.3::''' >.4''' >.>::''' >.>:4'''*>.>>?/ *>.>6>/ *>.>63/ *>.>64/

k`*tbfk LH^ ~bt cf~oxf g/ ->.>6< >.6:.383'''*>.>66/ *>.>6:/ *>.>33/ *>.>3>/

k`*tbfk LHe / >.?2:''' >.339''' >.3>3''' >.36?'''*>.>>2/ *>.>6>/ *>.>68/ *>.>64/

k`*tbfk LH^ ~bt cf~oxfe / >.2.348''' >.333'''*>.>>:/ *>.>6.>34/ *>.>3>/

k`*hosxf`cb/ -6.>69''' ->..>66/ *>.>44/ *>.>92/ *>.>66/

Camma` Kf`lrflb hrmm >.9.6 >.9>2'''*>.>6?/ *>.>84/ *>.693/ *>.>4>/

Kf`h dathbt hrmm >.?>.63? >.3?.622''' >.4>6'''*>.>4>/ *>.>49/ *>.>36/ *>.>34/

Bz~atxbt \XA mbmdbt hrmm >.3:2''' >.8>.6>.839''' ->.3>?'' 6.688'''*>.>6.>39/ *>.648/ *>.6>:/

IXF hrmm * IXF ge / >.???''' >..3::'''*>.>39/ *>.>83/ *>.>39/ *>.>34/

k`bz~atx ge >.>>: >.>43 >.>4: >.>89''*>.>4>/ *>.>4>/ *>.>46/ *>.>46/

k`om~atx g-e >.9.23>''' >.3.>>> 6.9?6'' 46.92:'''*>.69>/ *>.>>>/ *>..6.


29/48


Xfdkb 27 Tbsrkxs iat O`xtf-O`hrsxt Xtfhb Ika|s+ Fkk Car`xtobs+ 6?:>4>>:

Yftofdkbs AKS*6/

^f`bkTf`hamBiibcxs

*4/

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*3/

Car`xt -S~bcoiocBiibcxs

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Hb~b`hb`x yftofdkb7 kò`xtfQom~atx ge

k`*tbfk LH^ g / >.2?3''' >.9>3''' >.24>''' >.288'''*>.>68/ *>.>6.>43/ *>.>44/

k`*tbfk LH^ ~bt cf~oxf g / >.4>3''' >.4.3?:'''*>.>6:/ *>.>42/ *>.>22/ *>.>23/

k`*tbfk LHê / 6.>.2.>>:/ *>.>63/ *>.>43/ *>.>44/

k`*tbfk LH^ ~bt cf~oxfe / >.98..>68/ *>.>44/ *>.>23/ *>.>28/

k`*hosxf`cb/ -6.6>4''' -6.>9:''' ->.29>''' -6.86.''' >.838 >..:.39>'''*>.>/ *>.663/ *>.82.>.429''' >.424''' >.3>>''' >.6'''*>.>33/ *>.>3?/ *>.>29/ *>.>2.2>>''' >.39:''' >.632'' >.>8>*>.>39/ *>.>83/ *>.>2?/ *>.>2?/

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k bz~atx ge ->.>?4''' >.>>3 >.634''' >.68>'''*>.>34/ *>.>34/ *>.>88/ *>.>84/

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30/48


Xfdkb 97 Om~fcx ai FCIXF a` FSBF@ f`h xjb ^ba~kbs Tb~rdkoc ai Cjo`fsXtfhb Ika|s *dokkoa` ( fx 4>>: ~tocbs/

Oxbm 4>>: Tbfkyfkrb

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31/48

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33/48


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Sartcb7 Hfxf ftb itam R@ Camxtfhb hfxfdfsb. Xjb tb~atxo`l car`xt os xjb ^ba~kbsTb~rdkoc ai Cjo`f.

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6:

46

BR-42 RS Gf~f` FSBF@

6??? 4>>?


34/48


Iolrtb 87 Xtfhb Sxtrcxrtb ai Sbkbcxbh FSBF@ Car`xtobs |oxjxjb ^ba~kbs Tb~rdkoc ai Cjo`f+ 4>>: *mokkoa` (/

*f/ So`lf~atbs Xtfhb |oxj xjb ^ba~kbs Tb~rdkoc ai Cjo`f

Sartcb7 Hfxf ftb itam R@ Camxtfhb hfxfdfsb.

*d/ Mfkf sofs Xtfhb |oxj xjb ^ba~kbs Tb~rdkoc ai Cjo`f

Sartcb7 Hfxf ftb itam R@ Camxtfhb hfxfdfsb.

Lkfss f`hlkfss|ftb Ftxockbs ai ota` at sxbbk

Fkrmo`rm f`h ftxockbs

xjbtbai

Mfcjo`bt f`h mbcjf`ocfk f~~kof`cbs5 ~ftxs xjbtbai

Bkbcxtocfk mfcjo`bt f`h bvro~mb`x f`h ~ftxs xjbtbai

Sjo~s+ dafxs f`h ikafxo`l sxtrcxrtbs

Xo` f`h ftxockbs xjbtbai

Moscbkkf`bars ftxockbs ai dfsb mbxfk

Tfok|f at xtfm|f

kacamaxoybs+takko`l - sxace

f`h ~ftxsxjbtbai

-62+>>>

-6>+>>>

-2+>>>

>

2+>>>

6>+>>>

62+>>>

bz~atx om~atx

F`omfkat yblbxfdkb

ifxs f`h aoks

Xaaks+ om~kbmb`xs+

crxkbt + s~aa`s f`h iates+ ai dfsb mbxfk

Trddbt f`h ftxockbs xjbtbai

@ocebk f`h ftxockbs

xjbtbai

Bkbcxtocfk mfcjo`bt

f`h bvro~mb`x f`h ~ftxs xjbtbai

Fotctfix+ s~fcbctfix f`h ~ftxs xjbtbai

-:+>>>

-9+>>>

-8+>>>

-4+>>>

>

4+>>>

8+>>>

9+>>>

:+>>>

bz~atx om~atx

X t f

h b

I k a |

X t f

h b

I k a |


35/48

Xjb Om~fcx ai FCIXF a` ^ba~kb,s Tb~rdkoc ai Cjo`f-FSBF@ Xtfhb { 4>>

- 8+>>>

- 4+>>>

>

4+>>>

8+>>>

9+>>>

bz~atx om~atx

X t f

h b

I k a |


36/48

4: { \ateo`l ^f~bt Sbtobs a` Tbloa`fk Bcaàmoc O`xbltfxoa` @a. ??

F~~b`hoz F7 Hbtoyfxoa` ai xjb Hbxbtmo`f`xs ai Cam~a`b`x Xtfhb Ika|

F eb cjftfcxbtosxoc ai cam~a`b`x xtfhb os oxs bzxb`soyb car`xt -car`xt o`hrsxtokoèflbs. Xjos om~kobs car`xt gs om~atxs ai ~ftxs f`h cam~a`b`xs itam car`xte xb`h xa

db joljk cattbkfxbh |oxj gs om~atxs itam axjbt car`xtobs *-e / fs |bkk fs oxs bz~atxs xa xjbtbsx ai xjb |atkh. Xjrs+ xjb om~atxs ai ~ftxs f`h cam~a`b`xs ai car`xt g itam car`xt e fx xombx *com~atx gex / cf` db s~bcoiobh rso`l f` bzxb`hbh ybtsoa` ai xjb ltfyox mahbks~bcoiocfxoa` rsbh d Tasb *4>>8/+ f`h F`hbtsa` f`h yf` \o`caa~ *4>>2/ fs iakka|s7

> 6 4bz~ gex gx g ex m mgex gex com~atx c atx com~atx Z *F6/

|jbtb cbz~atx gx os bz~atxs ai car`xt g xa xjb |atkh+com~atx g-ex os om~atxs ai car`xt g itamxjb tbsx ai xjb |atkh+ f`h 6 f`h 4 ftb cabiiocob`xs cattbs~a`ho`l xacbz~atx gx f`h + com~atx g-ex +tbs~bcxoybk . Z os f ybcxat ai m yftofdkbs xjfx fiibcx om~atxs ai car`xt g itamcar`xt e+ os xjb ybcxat cabiiocob`xs cattbs~a`ho`l xa Z f`h gex os xjb tbsohrfk. Z tb~tbsb`xs xjb LH^+ LH^ ~bt cf~oxf ai bfcj car`xt + xjb hosxf`cb dbx|bb` xtfho`l~ftx`bts+ IXF f`h xtfhb ~tbibtb`cb tbkfxoa`sjo~ f`h axjbt cayftofxbs. O` bvrokodtorm+ xjiotsx hoiibtb`cb ai bvrfxoa` 6F os7

6 4bz~ gex gx g ex m mgex com~atx c atx com~atx Z *F4/

|jbtb *./ os xjb iotsx hoiibtb`cb ai f yftofdkb+ gex => + f`h >=>.

D hbioòxoa`+com~atx gex % com~atx g-ex = com~atx g+|th + |jocj os om~kobh d xjb dfkf`cb ai ~f mb`x iat bfcj car`xt o` xjb ka`l tr`.Xfeo`l oxs iotsx hoiibtb`cb loybs com~atx gex %com~atx g-ex = com~atx g+|th . O` bvrokodtorm+ com~atx g+|th+x = cbz~atx g+|th+x oi s mmbxt ai fkkcar`xtobs os fssrmbh. Srdsxoxrxo`l com~atx g+|th+x = cbz~atx g+|th+x o`xa bvrfxoa` 4F loybs7

6 4* / gex gex g ex g ex m mgex com~atx com~atx com~atx com~atx Z *F3/

Xjb fssrm~xoa` ai s mmbxt fksa om~kobs xjfx car`xt g f`h e ftb ai f somokft sowb+ jb`cb+com~atx gex =com~atx g-ex . Bvrfxoa` 3F cf` xjb` db tbfttf`lbh fs7

6 4*6 4 / gex m mgex com~atx Z *F8/

|jocj loybs7

6 4! *6 4 / gex m mgex com~atx Z . *F2/

Loyb` xjb iacrs os a` xtfhb ctbfxoa` hrb xa xjb iatmfxoa` ai IXF+ axjbt cayftofxbstb~tbsb`xbh d Z bzcb~x iat xjb IXF hrmm ftb fssrmbh xa tbmfo` r`cjf`lbh+ xjfx os+ Z mgex = Z IXF+gex . Xjrs+ bvrfxoa` 2F cf` db |toxxb` fs7

6 4

6*6 4 /

IXF gex com~atx

*F2/


37/48

Xjb Om~fcx ai FCIXF a` ^ba~kb,s Tb~rdkoc ai Cjo`f-FSBF@ Xtfhb { 4?

Bvrfxoa` 2F ~tayohbs xjb xtfhb ctbfxoa` biibcxs ai IXF+ |oxj xjb xtfhb mrkxo~kobt s~bcoxa xjb `b| xtfhb ctbfxoa` mbcjfòsm ~ta~asbh o` xjos ~f~bt loyb` d6!*64 6 4/.

Xjb xtfhb mrkxo~kobt 6!*64 6 4/ os rsrfkk kftlbt xjf` a`b+ |jocj srllbsxs xjfx f ròx

cjf`lb o` xjb oòxofk dokfxbtfk xtfhb+ Z gex + carkh kbfh xa matb xjf` a`b ròx cjf`lb o`xtfhb o` ~ftxs f`h cam~a`b`xs+ |jbtbo` xjb mflòi o`l biibcx os hbxbtmo`bh d 6 f`h 4. F `bcbssft ca`hoxoa` iat xjb xtfhb mrkxo~kobt xa bzcbbh ròx os iat xjb srm ai 4' 6 f`h 4 xa db kbss xjf` 6.


38/48


F~~b`hoz D7 Hfxf Hbscto~xoa`s f`h Sartcbs

Yftofdkb @fmb Hbscto~xoa` Sartcb '

kòm~atx Kal ai tbfk dokfxbtfk xtfhb o` 6>> mokkoa` RShakkfts *c.o.i ~tocb/ OMIHotbcxoa` ai Xtfhb Sxfxosxocs

kò`xtfQom~atx Kal ai tbfk dokfxbtfk o`xtf-o`hrsxt xtfhb o` 6>>mokkoa` RS hakkfts *c.o.i ~tocb/+ bsxomfxbh d rso`lxjb o`xtf-o`hrsxt o`hbz mrkxo~k o`l xjb tbfkdokfxbtfk xtfhb.

Frsxtfkof` @fxoa`fkRòybtsox O`xbt`fxoa`fkBcaàmoc Hfxf Dfè*OBHD/

k`*tbfk LH^ g/ Kal ai tbfk LH^ ai om~atxbt \atkh Dfè \atkh Hbybka~mb`x O`hocfxat

k`*tbfk LH^ ~bt cf~oxf g/ Kal ai tbfk LH^ ~bt cf~oxf ai om~atxbt \atkh Dfè \atkh Hbybka~mb`x O`hocfxat

k`*tbfk LHe / Kal ai tbfk LH^ ai bz~atxbt \atkh Dfè \atkh Hbybka~mb`x O`hocfxat

k`*tbfk LH^ ~bt cf~oxfe / Kal ai tbfk LH^ ~bt cf~oxf ai bz~atxbt \atkh Dfè \atkh Hbybka~mb`x O`hocfxat

k`*hosxf`cb/ Kal ai hosxf`cb Srdtfmfòf` f`h \bo*4>>8/

Camma` kf`lrflbhrmm

Xfeb f yfkrb ai 6 oi xtfho`l ~ftx`bts sjftb fcamma` kf`lrflb+ > axjbt|osb

Srdtfmfòf` f`h \bo*4>>8/

Hrmm iat kf`h dathbt Xfeb xjb yfkrb ai 6 oi xjb xtfho`l ~ftx`bts sjftbxjb dathbt axjbt|osb >.


Om~atxbt \XA mbmdbt Xfeb f yfkrb ai 6 oi om~atxbt os f \XA mbmdbt+> axjbt|osb

Frxjats a|`cfkcrkfxoa`s

Bz~atxbt \XA mbmdbt Xfeb f yfkrb ai 6 oi bz~atxbt os f \XA mbmdbt+> axjbt|osb


Oskf`h hrmm Xfeb f yfkrb ai > oi `boxjbt ai xtfho`l ~ftx`bts osf` oskf`h+ 6 a`b ai xjb xtfho`l ~ftx`bts os fòskf`h car`xt + 4 daxj ftb oskf`hs.


Kf`h dathbt hrmm Xfeb f yfkrb ai 6 oi xtfho`l ~ftx`bts sjftb fcamma` dathbt+ > axjbt|osb


IXF hrmm Xfeb f yfkrb ai 6 oi xtfho`l ~ftx`bts ftb o` xjbsfmb IXF+ > axjbt|osb


k`bz~atx g

Kal ai tbfk bz~atx ai g

xa xjb |atkh Frxjats a|`cfkcrkfxoa`skòm~atx g e Kal ai tbfk om~atx ai g itam car`xtobs axjbt xjfe Frxjats a|`

cfkcrkfxoa`s HX x F ltar~ ai hrmm yftofdkbs iat s~bcoioc xomb

~btoahs+ |jocj xfeb a` f yfkrb ai 6 fx xjbiakka|o`l ~btoahs7 HX 6=6?:>6?:8+ HX 4=6?:26?:?+ HX 3=6??>6??8+ HX 8=6??26???+

HX 2=4>>>4>>8+ f`h HX 9 =4>>24>>:+ >



39/48


Yftofdkb @fmb Hbscto~xoa` Sartcb '

axjbt|osb. H g F ltar~ ai hrmm yftofdkbs tb~tbsb`xo`l bfcj

om~atxo`l car`xt . Iat bzfm~kb+ oi f` om~atxbt os

car`xt F+ H g=F =6+ > axjbt|osb5 f`h oi f`om~atxbt os car`xt D+ H g=D =6+ > axjbt|osb.


H e F ltar~ ai hrmm yftofdkbs tb~tbsb`xo`l bfcjbz~atxo`l car`xt .


H ge F ltar~ ai hrmm yftofdkbs iat s~bcoiocom~atxbt-bz~atxbt *car`xt / ~fot. Iat bzfm~kb+ oi om~atxbt os car`xt F f`h bz~atxbt os car`xt D+

H ge=FD=6+ > axjbt|osb. Oi om~atxbt os car`xt Ff`h bz~atxbt os car`xt os C+ H ge=FC =6+ >axjbt|osb.


' Atolo`fk hfxf |btb itam Srdtfmf`of` f`h \bo *4>>


40/48


FHD \ateo`l ^f~bt Sbtobs a` Tbloa`fk Bcaàmoc O`xbltfxoa` '

6. Xjb FSBF@ Bcaàmoc Cammròx f`h xjb Brta~bf` Bz~btob`cb dMocjfbk L. ^krmmbt

4. Bcaàmoc O`xbltfxoa` o` Bfsx Fsof7 Xtb`hs+ ^tas~bcxs+ f`h f âssodkbTaf hmf~ d ^tfhrm`f D. Tf`f

3. Cb`xtfk Fsof fixbt Ioixbb` _bfts ai Xtf`soxoa`7 Lta|xj+ Tbloa`fkCaa~btfxoa`+ f`h âkoc Cjaocbs d Mfkcakm Ha|ko`l f`h Lf`bsjf`\ol`ftfgf

8. Lkadfk Omdfkf`cbs f`h xjb Fsof` Bcaàmobs7 Om~kocfxoa`s iat Tbloa`fkCaa~btfxoa d Dftt Bocjb`ltbb`

2. Xa|fth \o`-\o` Tbloa`fkosm o` Fsof7 Ossrbs f`h Cjfkkb`lbs o` Iatmo`l

Biiocob`x Xtfhb Fltbbmb`xs d Mocjfbk L. ^krmmbt 9. Kodbtfkowo`l Ctass-Dathbt Cf~oxfk Ika|s7 Ja| Biibcxoyb Ftb O`sxoxrxoa`fk

Fttf`lbmb`xs flfo`sx Ctosos o` Sarxjbfsx Fsof d Fkitbh Sxbo`jbtt+ Fkbssf`hta Cosaxxf+ Btoe Ekt+ f`h Eb`f` bjayo

. Xtfhb O`xb`sox f`h Drso`bss C ckb S `cjtaòwfxoa`7 Xjb Cfsb ai Bfsx Fsof d ^tfhrm`f D. Tf`f

66. O`bvrfkox f`h Lta|xj Tbyosoxbh d Tadbtx G. Dftta

64. Sbcrtoxowfxoa` o` Bfsx Fsof d ^frk Kbgax+ Harlkfs Ft`bt+ f`h KaxxbScjar-Wodbkk

63. ^fxxbt`s f`h Hbxbtmo`f`xs ai Ctass-dathbt Io`f`cofk Fssbx Jakho`ls o`Bfsx Fsof d Ga`l-\jf Kbb

68. Tbloa`fkosm fs f` B`lo`b ai Mrkxokfxbtfkosm7 F Cfsb iat f So`lkb Bfsx Fsof` IXF d Mfsfjota Ef|fo f`h Lf`bsjf` \ol`ftfgf


41/48


62. Xjb Om~fcx ai Cf~oxfk Oìka|s a` Bmbtlo`l Bfsx Fsof` Bcaàmobs7 Os XaaMrcj Ma`b Cjfso`l Xaa Koxxkb Laah1 d Sa ar`l Eom f`h Haa _a`l_f`l

69. Bmbtlo`l Bfsx Fsof` Dfèo`l S sxbms Xb` _bfts fixbt xjb 6??

6. \bkiftb Om~kocfxoa`s ai O`xbt`fxoa`fk Io`f`cofk O`xbltfxoa` d Ga`l-\jfKbb f`h E|f`ja Sjo`

46. Os xjb FSBF@-Eatbf Itbb Xtfhb Ftbf *FEIXF/ f` A~xomfk Itbb Xtfhb Ftbf1 d Ha`lj r` ^fte+ O``|a` ^fte+ f`h Lbmmf Bsxjbt D. Bsxtfhf

44. O`hofs Da`h MftebxHbybka~mb`xs f`h Cjfkkb`lbs Fjbfh d Sxb~jb`\bkks f`h Kaxxb Scjar- Wodbkk

43. Cammahox ^tocbs f`h Ma`bxft âkoc o` Bmbtlo`l Bfsx Fsof d JsofaCjoè Xf`l

48. Habs Xtfhb O`xbltfxoa` Ca`xtodrxb xa ^bfcb1 d Ga`l-\jf Kbb f`h GrJ r` ^ r`

42. Flo`l o` Fsof7 Xtb`hs+ Om~fcxs+ f`h Tbs~a`sbs d Gf f`x Mbà` f`h F``f Mbkb`hbw-@fefmrtf

49. Tb-ca`sohbto`l Fsof` Io`f`cofk Tbloa`fkosm o` xjb 6??>s d Sjo`xftaJfmf`fef

4. ^tamaxo`l Xtfhb f`h O`ybsxmb`x o` O`hofs @atxjbfsxbt` Tbloa` d M.Layo`hf Tfa


42/48


36. Bmbtlo`l Fsof7 Hbcar~ko`l at Tbcar~ko`l d Sa ar`l Eom+ Ga`l-\jfKbb+ f`h C `-_ar`l ^fte

34. O`hofs Takb o` Sarxj Fsof Xtfhb f`h O`ybsxmb`x O`xbltfxoa` d Tfgoy

Ermft f`h Mf`gbbxf So`lj33. Hbybka~o`l O`hocfxats iat Tbloa`fk Bcaàmoc O`xbltfxoa` f`h

Caa~btfxoa d Loayf`ò Cf~f``bkko+ Ga`l-\jf Kbb+ f`h ^bxbt ^bxto

38. Db a`h xjb Ctosos7 Io`f`cofk Tblrkfxat Tbiatm o` Bmbtlo`l Fsof dCjbb Sr`l Kbb f`h C `-_ar`l ^fte

32. Tbloa`fk Bcaàmoc Om~fcxs ai Ctass-Dathbt Oìtfsxtrcxrtb7 F Lb`btfkBvrokodtorm F~~kocfxoa` xa Xjfokf`h f`h Kfa ^HT d ^bxbt \ftt+ Gf f`xMbà`+ f`h Ftobi F`sjat _rsri

39. Bzcjf`lb Tfxb Tblombs o` xjb Fsof-^fcoioc Tbloa` f`h xjb LkadfkIo`f`cofk Ctosos d \ft|oce G. McEoddo` f`h \ftf` f ôm Cjf`xjf~r`

3. Tblrkfxat Tbiatms iat Om~tayo`l xjb Drso`bss B`yota`mb`x o` Sbkbcxbh Fsof` BcaàmobsJa| Maòxato`l f`h Cam~ftfxoyb Db`cjmfteo`l cf`^tayohb O`cb`xoyb iat Tbiatm d Kaxxb Scjar-Wodbkk f`h StoòyfsfMfhjrt

86. Lkadfk ^tahrcxoa` Sjfto`l+ Xtfhb ^fxxbt`s+ f`h Hbxbtmo`f`xs ai XtfhbIka|s o` Bfsx Fsof d ^tbmf-cjf`htf Fxjreatfkf f`h Gf f`x Mbà`

84. Tbloa`fkosm C ckb o` Fsof *-^fcoioc/7 F Lfmb Xjbat F~~tafcj xa xjbTosb f`h Ifkk ai Fsof` Tbloa`fk O`sxoxrxoa`s d Sjo`xfta Jfmf`fef

83. F Mfcta~trhb`xofk Itfmb|ate iat Maòxato`l f`h Bzfmoò`l Io`f`cofkSar`h`b ss d Kaxxb Scjar-Wodbkk+ Gasb Tfma` Fkdbtx+ f`h Kbo Kbo Sa`l

88. F Mfcta~trhb`xofk Itfmb|ate iat xjb Bftk Hbxbcxoa` ai Dfèo`l^tadkbms o` Bmbtlo`l Bcaàmobs d Ckfrhoa Kasbt+ Molrbk Eolrbk+ f`hHfyoh Mbtmbksxbo`


43/48


82. Xjb 4>>: Io`f`cofk Ctosos f`h âxb`xofk Arx~rx o` Fsof7 Om~fcx f`h âkocOm~kocfxoa`s d C `-_ar`l ^fte+ Tr~btxa Mfgrcf+ f`h Gasbi _f~

89. Ha Jrd-f`h-S~aeb Itbb Xtfhb Fltbbmb`xs O`ctbfsb Xtfhb1 F ^f`bk

Hfxf F`fk sos

d Gr`l Jrt+ Gasb~j Fkdf+ f`h Ha`lj r` ^fte8. Tbloa`fk Srtybokkf`cb iat Bfsx Fsof7 Ja| Cf` Ox Db Hbsol`bh xaCam~kbmb`x Lkadfk Srtybokkf`cb1 d Sjo`go Xfeflo

26. âybtx Om~fcxs ai Laybt`mb`x Bz~b`hoxrtb itam @fxrtfk TbsartcbTbyb`rbs d ^bxbt \ftt+ Gf f`x Mbà`+ f`h Ftobi F`sjat _rsri

24. Mbxjahs iat Bz F`xb Bcaàmoc Byfkrfxoa` ai Itbb Xtfhb Fltbbmb`xs dHfyoh Cjba`l

23. Xjb Takb ai Mbmdbtsjo~ Trkbs o` Tbloa`fk Atlfòwfxoa`s d GrhoxjEbkkb

28. Xjb âkoxocfk Bcaàm ai Tbloa`fk Caa~btfxoa` o` Sarxj Fsof d Y.Y.Hbsfo

22. Xtfhb Ifcokoxfxoa` Mbfsrtbs r`hbt Itbb Xtfhb Fltbbmb`xs7 Ftb XjbHosctomo`fxat flfo`sx @a`-Mbmdbts1 d Sjo`xfta Jfmf`fef+ Foeb`Xfilft+ f`h Hataxjbf Kfwfta

29. ^tahrcxoa` @bx|ates f`h Xtfhb ^fxxbt`s o` Bfsx Fsof7 Tbloa`fkowfxoa` at Lkadfkowfxoa`1 d ^tbmf-cjf`htf Fxjreatfkf

2. Tbs~a`ho`l xa xjb Lkadfk Io`f`cofk f`h Bcaàmoc Ctosos7 Mbbxo`l xjbCjfkkb`lbs o` Fsof d Harlkfs \. Ft`bt f`h Kaxxb Scjar-Wodbkk


44/48


96. Sjf~o`l @b| Tbloa`fkosm o` xjb ^fcoioc Oskf`hs7 Dfce xa xjb Irxrtb1 dSfxosj Cjf`h

94. Atlfòwo`l xjb \ohbt Bfsx Fsof Tbloa` d Cjtosxa~jbt M. Hb`x

93. Kfdart f`h Ltfsstaaxs Coyoc O`xbtbsxs O` Tbloa`fk O`sxoxrxoa`s d Jbkb`B.S. @bsfhrtfo

98. O`sxoxrxoa`fk Hbsol` ai Tbloa`fk O`xbltfxoa`7 Dfkf`co`l Hbkblfxoa` f`hTb~tbsb`xfxoa` d Soma` Joz

92. Tbloa`fk Grhocofk O`sxoxrxoa`s f`h Bcaàmoc Caa~btfxoa`7 Kbssa`s iat Fsof1 d Btoe Yabxb`

99. Xjb F|febò`l Cjo`bsb Bcaàm 7 Mfcta f`h Xbtms ai. Xtfhb Om~fcxsa` 6> Mfgat Fsof-^fcoioc Car`xtobs d _o` Jrf Mfo+ ^joko~ Fhfms+ ^bxbt Hoza`+ f`h Gf f`x Mbà`

9


45/48

Xjb Om~fcx ai FCIXF a` ^ba~kb,s Tb~rdkoc ai Cjo`f-FSBF@ Xtfhb { 33 mokkoa` sxtrllko`l a` kbss xjf` (6.42 f hf .FHD os cammoxxbh xa tbhrco`l ~aybtx xjtarlj o`ckrsoyb bcaàmoc lta|xj+ b`yota`mb`xfkksrsxfo`fdkb lta|xj+ f`h tbloa`fk o`xbltfxoa`.

Dfsbh o` Mfòkf+ FHD os a|`bh d 9< mbmdbts+ o`ckrho`l 8: tam xjb tbloa`. Oxs mfoò`sxtrmb`xs at jbk~o`l oxs hbybka~o`l mbmdbt car`xtobs ftb ~akoc hofkalrb+ kaf`s+ bvroxo`ybsxmb`xs+ lrftf`xbbs+ ltf`xs+ f`h xbcjòcfk fssosxf`cb.

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