The Interdependence Between Urban and Rural Food Security in

AsiaProfessor Paul PS Teng

Dean, Graduate Studies & Professional Learning, NIESenior Fellow, RSIS, NTU,

Dr. Margarita EscalerResearch Fellow

National Institute of Education, and

Dr. Mely Caballero-AnthonyRSIS, NTU, Singapore

• Food security landscape in Asia• Importance of urban food security• Multi-dimensional nature of food security• Urban-rural linkages and interdependence• Policies & action interventions• Case study: Singapore

Outline of Presentation

Asia: A contrasting scorecard

• 60% of world’s population• Six of the top ten most populous countries• Fastest growing economies – “Asia-7”

• 3.1B people; GDP $14.2Trillion

• 27% of global GDP (rising to 51% in 2050)

• Half of world’s urban population• More than half of world’s slum population• Eleven megacities • Large agricultural exporter and importer• 60% of world’s under-nourished

Food Security Landscape in Asia

Food Balances in Asia

Crop ItemMillion MT

06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11

WHEAT Global Production 596 612 682 684 648

Asia Imports(% of Global Exports)

35(30)

31(27)

34(24)

35(26)

33(27)

RICE(milled)

Global Production 421 434 448 440 452

Asia Imports(% of Global Exports)

10(31)

8.5(29

6.9(24)

8.6(28)

8.7(29)

CORN Global Production 714 795 799 812 814

Asia Imports(% of Global Exports)

34(37)

35(36)

34(40)

37(39)

36(39)

SOYBEAN Global Production 237 221 212 261 258

Asia Imports(% of Global Exports)

39(56)

48(61)

51(66)

61(65)

68(69)

Source: USDA FAS

Asia by 2050

Food Security Landscape in Asia

Urban2010

Rural2010

Total 2010

Urban2050

Rural2050

Total2050

ASIA 1.8 2.4 4.2 3.4 1.7 5.1

WORLD 3.5 3.4 6.9 6.3 3 9.3

Three key drivers• ~20% increase in total population• ~89% increase in urban population• 51% of global GDP (from 27% in 2010)

Population

Food Demand Changes in Asia

• Reduced per capita consumption of rice• Increased consumption per capita of wheat and

wheat-based products• Increased diversity in the food groups consumed• Rise in high proteins and energy dense diets• Increased consumption of temperate zone

products• Rising popularity of convenience food and

beverages• Westernization of diets

Source: Pingali, FAO 2004

• Meat consumption100 years ago, average 25 kg/person/yrToday, average 80 kg/person/yr (USA – 124 kg/person/yr)China:1962 – 4 kg/person/yr; 2005 – 60 kg/person/yr

• Fish consumption1960s – 9.9 kg/person/yr; 2005 – 16.4 kg/person/yrChina accounted for most of world growth (26.1 kg/person/yr)

• Vegetable consumption- 1970s – 60 kg/person/yr; 2000 – >100 kg/person/yr - China: 1970 – 44.4 kg/person/yr; 2005 – 270.6 kg/person/yr

Food Demand Changes in Asia (cont’d)

At present, 50% of the world’s population lives in cities – Asia accounts for half the share

By 2050, 70% will be urban (mostly in developing countries) with Asia seeing an increase of ~1.7 Billion

Shift in the locus of poverty to cities

Increase in slum dwellers to 828 M in 2010 from 777 M in 2000; Asia accounts for more than half the world’s total slum population

Urbanization of Asia

Asian Urbanization 2010 2050

Total Urban Population(millions)

3,486 6,285

East Asia 785 1,189

West Asia 155 296

Southeast Asia 247 501

South Central Asia 571 1,396

Urbanization (%)

East Asia 50 79

West Asia 67 75

Southeast Asia 42 66

South Central Asia 32 56

ASIA 1,758 3,382Source: UN World Urbanization Prospects, 2009 Revision

Importance of Urban Food Security

“A hungry person with low blood sugar is a very angry person – virtually ungovernable”

Ruth Oniang’o

Why is food a security issue?

* Lack of access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food

Food Shortages

Food Contamination

Food Price Increases

Deterioration of Health

Deterioration of Nutrition

Loss of Life

Economic Instability

Political Instability

Conflict

Social Instability

Food Hoarding

FoodInsecurity*

Globalisation

Conflict

Climate Change

Unique features of cities

- Most food is purchased- Food basket is more varied and more diverse

in origin- More vulnerable to changes in the int’l markets- Supermarket chains and control

of access- Availability of more processed foods- Higher food prices have greater adverse effects- Poor living conditions for urban poor- Jobs of urban poor and insecure, uncertain

II.Physical Access

ProductionImports

Stockpiles

I. Availability

Primary ProductionCrops/Animals

III.Economic Access

IV.Utilization

Demand for Food

Inputs

Labor Land Water

Sunshine

Other Uses

Fish

Distribution

Biofuels

Animal Feed

PoultryMammals

AquacultureCapture Natural

Ecosystems

Population IncreasesDiet DiversificationLifestyle Changes

Urbanization Etc.

Processing/Distribution

Losses

Household Food

Security

Trade

Multi-dimensional Nature of Food Security

Issues of Concern

Availability Physical Access

EconomicAccess

Utilization

• Fragility of agro-systems

• Climate change • Competition for

land• Changing

demographics • Waste• Int’l trade

policies• Biofuel policies• Subsidies• Etc.

• Poor infrastructure• Conflict• Market

imperfections• Waste• Etc.

• Health and nutrition

• Fortificationprograms

• Education• Etc.

• Social programs,safety nets

• Employment• Income• Macroeconomic

policies• Entrepreneurship• Etc.

Urban-Rural Inter-dependence

URBAN RURAL- Urban markets spur economic growth in countryside

- Urban residents depend indirectly on agriculture

- Incomes from non-agricultural activities and remittances help decreaserural poverty & increase agricultural innovation

- Commuting and circular migration for rural residents decreases dependence on subsistence production for food security

- In times of crisis, urban residents may migrate to countryside

- Cities can have a more direct link with agriculture via urban and peri-urban agriculture

URBAN RURAL

Threats to Urban Food Security

Natural calamities and pest outbreaksMacro-economic policy changes

Unseasonal weather patternsRising energy prices

Competition from energy sectorTemporary illness/ unemployment

PovertyUnderinvestment in agriculture

Competition for landChanging demographics

HIVClimate Change

Fragility of agro-ecosystemsAgricultural policy Changes

FoodProduction

and consumption

At source

FoodProduction

and consumption

Export ofsurplus

Role of public sector

Role of private sector

URBAN

RURAL

RURAL

URBAN

PERIURBAN

Feeding cities requires rural surplus production

PERIURBAN

Approaches to ensure future surpluses in the “Hinterland” and in the global food supply chain?

• Closing the yield gap – e.g. increasing farmer access to better seeds,fertilizers, water and pest management practices, equipment, training;improving market infrastructure and transport, etc.

• Increasing production limits – e.g. modern biotechnology to improve seed

• Reducing waste

• Changing diets

• Expanding aquaculture

CHALLENGE: All of the above must be done in an environmentally sustainable manner

Policy & Action Interventions - Examples

AvailabilityPhysical Access

EconomicAccess

Utilization

• Increase agricultural productivity

• Reduce waste

• Encourage sustainable int’l trade

• Review agricultural/ biofuel policies

• Improve transport andinfrastructure

• Link farmers to markets

• Reduce waste

• Biofortification,dietary supple-ments, education

• Improve healthcare

• Monitor nutritionalsecurity progress

• Improve infra-structure/hygiene

• Social programs,safety nets

• Increase entrepreneurial skills of farmers

• Non-farm employment

INVESTMENTS

FOOD SECURITY

Trade

Social developmentEnvironment

Energy

Agriculture Water Supply

Land use

Economic development

Political stability

Finance

Interconnected Policy Making

Labour & Employment

Health & Nutrition

National security Migration

Education

Public works

ASEAN

ASIA-PACIFIC

EUROPE & AMERICAS

Global Food Supply Chain

Conceptualization of the inter-relationships between Food Supply and Demand at regional and global levels --

Distribution

Food Security: geographic connectivity

Country Major Ag Commodities Produced World Ranking

Brunei rice, vegetables, fruits; chickens, water buffalo

Burma rice, pulses, beans, sesame, groundnuts, sugarcane; 2- pigeon pea, cowpeas; 3-sesame

Cambodia rice, rubber, corn, vegetables, cashews

Indonesia rice, cassava (tapioca), peanuts, rubber, cocoa, coffee, palm oil, copra; poultry, beef, pork, eggs

1- palm oil, cloves, cinnamon, coconuts;2 – rubber, pepper; 3 – rice, coffee, cocoa

Laos sweet potatoes, vegetables, corn, coffee

Malaysia rubber, palm oil, cocoa, rice, coconuts, timber, pepper

2 – palm oil; 3 - rubber

Philippines sugarcane, coconuts, rice, corn, bananas, cassavas, pineapples, mangoes; pork, eggs

2 – coconuts, pineapple

Singapore orchids, vegetables; poultry, eggs; fish, ornamental fish

Thailand rice, cassava (tapioca), rubber, corn, sugarcane, coconuts, soybeans

1 – rice & shrimp exporter; 1 –rubber, pineapple; 2-eggs

Vietnam paddy rice, coffee, rubber, cotton, tea, pepper, soybeans, cashews, sugar cane, peanuts, bananas;

1- cashew pepper; 2 - coffee; 2 –

Why should Singapore be concerned?

• Net food importing country with limited land resources and largely urban environment

• Imports over 90% of its food• Local production accounts for 23% eggs, 4% fish,

7% leafy vegetables consumed

ASEAN

ASIA-PACIFIC

EUROPE & AMERICAS Singapore’s food sources

Enhancing local food supply resilience

• Increase self production of selected items• Diversify food sources• Develop non-traditional supply chains through smart

partnerships • Urban and Peri-urban Agriculture (UPA)

– Agroparks; Aquazones– Vertical farming– Roof top aquaponics, aeroponics, etc

• Stockpiles• Reduce waste• Etc.

“National Food Security depends on Regional and Global Food Security”

Conclusions

• Food security in Asia needs to be a priority – threat of hunger & instability could increase

• Urban dimensions of food security merit distinct attention

• Food security is multi-dimensional• There is no quick fix• More interconnected policy making is critical• More holistic approach is required• For Singapore, a broad-based, multi-sectoral,

cross-nation approach is needed to ensure urban food security

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