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AgreenSkills annual meeting, Toulouse, 27 October 2014 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Serge Planton Météo-France, CNRM-GAME
AgreenSkills annual meeting, Toulouse, 27 October 2014
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Serge Planton Météo-France, CNRM-GAME
AgreenSkills annual meeting, Toulouse, 27 October 2014
The origin of IPCC
Two citations from the Summary for Policy Makers of the First Assessment Report prepared by IPCC Working Group I (1990): – “Emissions resulting from human activities are substantially
increasing the atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide, methane, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and nitrous oxide.”
– “These increases will enhance the greenhouse effect, resulting on average in an additional warming of the earth surfaces. The main greenhouse gas, water vapour, will increase in response to global warming and further enhance it.”
Schlesinger and Mitchell, 1989 Keeling et al., 1989
AgreenSkills annual meeting, Toulouse, 27 October 2014
What is the IPCC ?
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the
international body for assessing the science related to climate change.
The IPCC was set up in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) to provide policymakers with regular assessments of the scientific basis of climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for adaptation and mitigation.
AgreenSkills annual meeting, Toulouse, 27 October 2014
What is the IPCC ?
IPCC assessments provide a scientific basis for governments
at all levels to develop climate-related policies, and they underlie negotiations at the UN Climate Conference – the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
The assessments are policy-relevant but not policy-prescriptive : they may present projections of future climate change based on different scenarios and the risks that climate change poses and discuss the implications of response options, but they do not tell policymakers what actions to take.
AgreenSkills annual meeting, Toulouse, 27 October 2014
Timeline – highlights of IPCC history
1988 : The UNEP and the WMO establish the IPCC endorsed by the United Nations General Assembly.
1990 : The IPCC publishes its First Assessment Report. The UN General Assembly notes the report findings and decides to initiate negotiations for a framework convention on climate change.
1992 : The IPCC publishes Supplementary Reports Report. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) opens for signature at the UN Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro.
1995 : The IPCC publishes its Second Assessment Report.
1996 : The IPCC issues the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories.
1997 : The UNFCC’s Kyoto Protocol is adopted. It comes into force in 2005.
AgreenSkills annual meeting, Toulouse, 27 October 2014
Timeline – highlights of IPCC history
2000 : The IPCC issues the Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories.
2001 : The IPCC publishes its Third Assessment Report.
2003 : The IPCC issues the Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry.
2006 : The IPCC issues the 2006 Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories.
2007 : The IPCC publishes its Fourth Assessment Report. Nobel Peace Prize.
2009 : The IPCC approves the outlines of the three Working Group contributions to the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
AgreenSkills annual meeting, Toulouse, 27 October 2014
Timeline – highlights of IPCC history
2010 : The three Working Groups complete the selection of the 831 authors for the AR5 and work on the assessment starts. The IPCC starts a review of its processes and procedures, completed in 2012, based on recommendations from the InterAcademy Council.
2011 : The IPCC approves the Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN) and the Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX).
2013: The IPCC finalize Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, the Working Group I contribution to AR5. (Full report published in 2014). The IPCC finalize two Methodology Reports.
2014 : The IPCC finalize Climate Change 2014: Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability and Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change, the Working Group II and Working Group III contributions to AR5. The Fifth Assessment Report will be completed in 2014 with the Synthesis Report.
AgreenSkills annual meeting, Toulouse, 27 October 2014
IPCC organization
Participation in the IPCC is open to all member countries of the WMO and United Nations. It currently has 195 members. The Panel, made up of representatives of the member states, meets in Plenary Sessions to take major decisions.
The IPCC Bureau (31 members), elected by member governments, provides guidance to the Panel on the scientific and technical aspects of the Panel’s work and advises the Panel on related management and strategic issues.
The authors producing the reports are grouped in three working groups – Working Group I: the Physical Science Basis; Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability; and Working Group III: Mitigation of Climate Change and the Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories.
AgreenSkills annual meeting, Toulouse, 27 October 2014
How does the IPCC select its authors ?
Following a call to governments and IPCC observer
organisations for nominations and the submission of detailed CVs, authors are selected on the basis of their expertise.
The composition of author teams aims to reflect a range of scientific, technical and socio-economic views and backgrounds. A comprehensive assessment requires author teams to include a mix of authors from different regions.
The IPCC also seeks a balance of men and women, as well as between those experienced with working on IPCC reports and those new to the process, including younger scientists. Author teams may also include experts from industry and from non-profit organizations who bring a valuable perspective to the assessment.
Assessment Report 5 (AR5) June 2010: selection of 831 coordinating lead authors, authors and review editors among near 3000 candidates. Working Group I contribution: 258 Working Group II contribution: 302 Working Group III contribution: 271 About 30% of authors come from developing countries or economies in transition. The proportion of female experts, has significantly increased since the AR4, reaching approximately 25% of the selected authors. More than 60% of the experts chosen are new to the IPCC process, which will bring in new knowledge and perspectives.
AgreenSkills annual meeting, Toulouse, 27 October 2014
What literature does the IPCC assess ?
The IPCC does not conduct its own research, run models or
make measurements of climate or weather phenomena.
In the assessment process, emphasis is to be placed on the assurance of the quality of all cited literature. Priority should be given to peer-reviewed scientific, technical and socio-economic literature if available.
Other sources may include reports from governments, industry, and research institutions, international and other organizations, or conference proceedings. Use of this literature brings with it an extra responsibility for the author teams to ensure the quality and validity of cited sources and information.
AgreenSkills annual meeting, Toulouse, 27 October 2014
How does the IPCC review process work ?
Multiple stages of review are an essential part of the IPCC
process.
Expert Reviewers and governments are invited at different stages to comment on the scientific, technical and socio-economic assessment and the overall balance of the drafts. The review process includes wide participation, with hundreds of reviewers critiquing the accuracy and completeness of the scientific assessment contained in the drafts.
The Review Editors ensure that all substantive comments received during review are given appropriate consideration by the author teams and ensure that genuine diversity in perspectives in the literature is reflected adequately in the report.
AgreenSkills annual meeting, Toulouse, 27 October 2014
How does the IPCC review process work ?
AgreenSkills annual meeting, Toulouse, 27 October 2014
How does the IPCC review process work ?
Assessment Report 5 (AR5)
AgreenSkills annual meeting, Toulouse, 27 October 2014
How does the IPCC approve reports ?
As the culmination of a report’s development, IPCC member governments endorse the report.
“Approval” is the process used for IPCC Summaries for Policymakers. Approval signifies that the material has been subject to detailed, line-by-line discussion, leading to agreement among the participating IPCC member countries.
“Adoption” is the process used for IPCC Synthesis Reports. Adoption is a section-by-section discussion leading to agreement among participating governments.
“Acceptance” is the process used for the full underlying report in a Working Group Assessment Report or a Special Report after its SPM has been approved.
AgreenSkills annual meeting, Toulouse, 27 October 2014
The 5th assessment report (2013-2014)
Working Group reports already published on
the IPCC web site (http://www.ipcc.ch/) :
– Working Group I : 29 September 2013 – Working Groupe II : 29 March 2014 – Working Group III : 31 October 2014
The 40th Session of IPCC for the
adoption and approval of the Synthesis Report will be held in Copenhagen, Denmark between 27-31 October 2014
AgreenSkills annual meeting, Toulouse, 27 October 2014
How does the IPCC deal with alleged errors ?
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has
clear procedures for investigating, and if necessary, correcting alleged errors in its published reports.
The “Error Protocol”, is used to correct errors of fact or accuracy that could have been avoided in the context of the information available at the time the report was written. It cannot be used to make changes that reflect new knowledge or scientific information that became available only after the literature cut-off date for the report in question.
The Secretariat maintains an internal error tracking system.
AgreenSkills annual meeting, Toulouse, 27 October 2014
Error protocol
AgreenSkills annual meeting, Toulouse, 27 October 2014
Some learnings of errors in the Fourth Assessment Report
An error in chapter 10, Asia section, of the WG II contribution
to the AR4 :
“ Glaciers in the Himalaya are receding faster than in any other part of the world (see Table 10.9) and, if the present rate continues, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 and perhaps sooner is very high if the Earth keeps warming at the current rate. Its total area will likely shrink from the present 500,000 to 100,000km2 by the year 2035 (WWF,2005).”
In an Errata available on the IPCC web site, this section is deleted and replaced by :
“Many Himalayan glaciers are retreating (Karma et al., 2003; and see examples in Table 10.9).”
AgreenSkills annual meeting, Toulouse, 27 October 2014
Some learnings of errors in the Fourth Assessment Report
In drafting the paragraph in question, the clear and well-
established standards of evidence, required by the IPCC procedures, were not applied properly.
In March 2010, the InterAcademy Council (IAC) was requested by the United Nations Secretary-General and the Chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to conduct an independent review of IPCC processes and procedures.
AgreenSkills annual meeting, Toulouse, 27 October 2014
Some conclusions of the IAC (August 2010)
The committee urges that the IPCC management structure be
fortified and that the IPCC communications strategy emphasizes transparency, including a plan for rapid but thoughtful response to crises.
IPCC needs to be as transparent as possible in detailing its processes, particularly its criteria for selecting participants and the type of scientific and technical information to be assessed.
More consistency is called for in how IPCC Working Groups characterize uncertainty.
AgreenSkills annual meeting, Toulouse, 27 October 2014
Uncertainty language: confidence scale
Qualitative judgment about the validity of a finding
AgreenSkills annual meeting, Toulouse, 27 October 2014
Uncertainty language: likelihood scale
Quantified measure of the certainty in a finding expressed as a probability based on statistical or modelling analysis, expert judgment, or other approaches.
AgreenSkills annual meeting, Toulouse, 27 October 2014
The attribution issue: a long process to reach stronger evidence
SPM WGI FAR (1990) :
“The unequivocal detection of the enhanced greenhouse effect from observations is not likely for a decade or more.”
SPM WGI SAR (1995) :
“The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate.”
AgreenSkills annual meeting, Toulouse, 27 October 2014
The attribution issue: a long process to reach stronger evidence
SPM WGI TAR (2001) :
“ … most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations.”
SPM WGI AR4 (2007) :
“Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.”
SPM WGI AR5 (2013) :
“It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century”
AgreenSkills annual meeting, Toulouse, 27 October 2014
Observed impacts attributed to climate change
AgreenSkills annual meeting, Toulouse, 27 October 2014
Increased economic losses and people affected by
flooding in river basins and coasts (high confidence)
Increased water restrictions due to significant reduction in water availability combined
with increased water demand (high confidence)
Increased economic losses and people affected by extreme heat events (medium confidence)
Risks linked to climate change in Europe
