The  Great  Disrup.on  Three  Digital  Revolu0ons  and  Those  Yet  to  Come    

Lee  Rainie  -­‐  @lrainie  

To  Na0onal  Religious  Broadcasters  Nashville  –  February  24,  2014  

Director,  PRC  Internet  Project  

Big  points  

•  We  live  in  a  world  of  “networked  individuals”  prac0cing  “networked  individualism”  

•  Three  technology  revolu0ons  have  pushed  along    pre-­‐exis0ng  trends  towards  NI  

•  People’s  experience  of  media  is  orchestrated  by  their  social  networks  and  expanded  by  social  media  

•  The  next  technology  revolu0ons  are  clearly  evident  now  …  so  be  prepared  

1)  We  live  in  a  world  of  “networked  individuals”  prac0cing  

“networked  individualism”  

Networked  Individualism  The  move  to  looser,  far-­‐flung  networks  

Personal  networks  are:  More  important  –  trust,  influence  awareness  Differently  composed  –  segmented,  layered  Perform  new  func.ons  –  sentries,  evaluators,  

audience  

But  it  is  not  just  technological  story  

Other  drivers  are  changes  in  …  Iden.ty  shiIs  –  star.ng  with  

religion  &  poli.cs  Family  life  changes  

Business  structures  &  labor  shiIs  Transporta.on  &  living  paMerns  

…  then  comes  technology  

2)  Three  technology  revolu0ons  have  pushed  along    pre-­‐exis0ng  

trends  towards  networked  individualism  

First:  Internet  and  broadband  Internet  adop0on  1995-­‐2014  

First:  Internet  and  broadband  Broadband  adop0on  2000-­‐2013  

3%  

70%  

0%  

20%  

40%  

60%  

80%  

100%  

June  2000  

April  2001  

March  2002  

March  2003  

April  2004  

March  2005  

March  2006  

March  2007  

April  2008  

April  2009  

May  2010  

Aug  2011  

April  2012  

May  2013  

Dial-­‐up   Broadband  

Second:  Wireless  connec0vity  Mobile  –  90%  …  smartphone  58%  …  tablets  42%  

326.4  Total  U.S.  popula.on:  319  million  

 2013  

Third:  Social  media  61%  of  all  adults  

%  of  internet  users  

9%  

89%  

7%  

78%  

6%  

60%  

1%  

43%  

0%  

20%  

40%  

60%  

80%  

100%  

2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   2012   2013  

18-­‐29   30-­‐49   50-­‐64   65+  

3)  People’s  experience  of  media  is  orchestrated  by  their  social  networks  

and  expanded  by  social  media  

Impacts  

•  Informa0on  flows  change  –  my  network,  my  playlist    •  Shibing  0me  and  acen0on  •  Changed  rela0onships  to  larger  ins0tu0ons  (including  media  organiza0ons)    – Every  organiza0on  a  media  company  and  a  node  – Every  individual  a  brand  

•  Amateurs  rise  to  sit  alongside  and  some0mes  challenge  experts  

•  Conversa0ons  and  disputes  are  much  more  drawn  out  

4)  The  next  technology  revolu0ons  are  clearly  evident  now  …  so  be  prepared  

4th  revolu0on  +++  

•  Internet  fades  into  the  environment  as  the  “internet  of  things”  expands  and  “big  data”  mushrooms  

•  Interfaces  change  –  gesture,  voice  •  Personal  connec0vity  grows    •  Search  expands  to  all  media  •  Surveillance  takes  new  forms  •  Personal  empowerment  develops  (3D  prin0ng)  –  Maker  culture  

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