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The IPCC and
the Sixth Assessment cycle
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the UN
body for assessing the science related to climate change. It was
set up in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization and United
Nations Environment Programme to provide policymakers with regular
assessments of the scientific basis of climate change, its impacts
and future risks, and options for adaptation and mitigation.
The IPCC does not conduct its own research. It identifies where
there is agreement in the scientific community, where there are
differences of opinion and where further research is needed. It is
a partnership between scientists and policymakers and it is this
that makes its work a credible source of information for
policymakers. IPCC assessments are produced according to procedures
that ensure integrity, in line with the IPCC’s overarching
principles of objectivity, openness and transparency. IPCC reports
are policy-relevant, but not policy-prescriptive.
Since 1988 the IPCC has produced five comprehensive Assessment
Reports and several Special Reports on specific topics. IPCC has
also produced Methodology Reports, which provide practical
guidelines on the preparation of greenhouse gas inventories for the
inventory reporting requirements of Parties to the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) was finalized between 2013 and
2014. Its key findings are:
• Human influence on the climate system is clear• The more we
disrupt our climate, the more we risk severe,
pervasive and irreversible impacts• We have the means to limit
climate change and build a more
prosperous, sustainable future
Like other Assessment Reports, the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6)
consists of three Working Group contributions and a Synthesis
Report, which integrates the Working Group assessments and the
Special Reports produced during the cycle.
At its 41st Session in Nairobi, Kenya, in February 2015, the
Panel decided to continue to prepare Assessment Reports every 5-7
years and took a number of decisions regarding the preparation of
the Sixth Assessment Report. At its 42nd Session in Dubrovnik,
Croatia, in October 2015 the Panel elected a Bureau for the Sixth
Assessment Report cycle.
At its 43rd Session in Nairobi, Kenya, in April 2016, it decided
the topics for Special Reports in the AR6 assessment cycle, and
considered modalities for addressing and enhancing the treatment of
regional issues in the scoping of AR6. Besides deciding to prepare
AR6, at its 43rd Session the Panel accepted the invitation of the
UNFCCC to produce a Special Report on the impacts of global warming
of 1.5ºC. In addition, it decided to produce two other Special
Reports, one on the oceans and cryosphere in a changing climate,
and one on climate change and land.
The Panel also decided to prepare a Methodology Report to refine
the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories in
order to update and provide a sound scientific basis for future
international climate action especially under the Paris
Agreement.
The three Special Reports and Methodology Report have already
been produced.
• Special Report: Global Warming of 1.5ºC (SR15)• Special
Report: Climate Change and Land (SRCCL)• Special Report: The Ocean
and Cryosphere in a Changing
Climate (SROCC)• Methodology Report: 2019 Refinement to the 2006
IPCC
Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories
https://www.ipcc.chhttps://www.wmo.inthttps://www.unenvironment.org/https://www.ipcc.ch/meeting-doc/ipcc-41-nairobi-kenya-24-27-february-2015/https://www.ipcc.ch/meeting-doc/ipcc-42-dubrovnik-croatia-5-8-october-2015/https://www.ipcc.ch/meeting-doc/ipcc-43-nairobi-kenya-11-13-april-2016/https://www.ipcc.ch/meeting-doc/ipcc-43-nairobi-kenya-11-13-april-2016/https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/https://www.ipcc.ch/report/2019-refinement-to-the-2006-ipcc-guidelines-for-national-greenhouse-gas-inventories/https://www.ipcc.ch/report/2019-refinement-to-the-2006-ipcc-guidelines-for-national-greenhouse-gas-inventories/https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg3/https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/
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SpecialReports
October 2018Global warming of 1.5°CAn IPCC special report on the
impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and
related global green- house gas emission pathways, in the context
of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate
change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate
poverty
The Sixth Assessment cycle
August 2019
Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing
ClimateSeptember 2019
Climate Change and Land:An IPCC special report on climate
change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land
management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial
ecosystems
MethodologyReport
May 20192019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National
Greenhouse Gas Inventories
OthersCities
A conference on cities and special attention to cities in the
Sixth Assessment Report with the intention of a Special Report on
climate change and cities in the Seventh Assessment Cycle
Expert Meetings Several Expert Meetings and workshops are held
to support the preparation of the Sixth Assessment Report. Reports
of these meetings are published as supporting materials
Outreach Communication and outreach of the IPCC process and its
findings
Outreach
Working Group I contributionThe physical science basis
Working Group III contributionMitigation of climate change
Working Group II contributionImpacts, adaptation and
vulnerability
Synthesis Report
SixthAssessment
Report *
Working Group I contributionThe physical science basis
Working Group III contributionMitigation of climate change
Working Group II contributionImpacts, adaptation and
vulnerability
Synthesis Report
April 2021
September 2021
October 2021
May 2022
The contributions from the three Working Groups are due for
release in 2021*:• April 2021 - Working Group I – The Physical
Science Basis• September 2021 - Working Group III – Mitigation of
Climate
Change• October 2021 - Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation
and
Vulnerability
The Synthesis Report is due to be finalized in the first half of
2022 in time for the 2023 Global Stocktake by the UNFCCC, when
countries will review progress towards the Paris Agreement goal of
keeping global warming to well below 2°C while pursuing efforts to
limit it to 1.5°C.
* The release dates for the Working Group reports are as agreed
by the 46th Session of the IPCC (with a subsequent adjustment for
Working Group III), and for the Synthesis Report by the 52nd
Session. These dates are likely to shift as a result of the impact
of the COVID-19 pandemic on the IPCC work programme.
https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/https://www.ipcc.ch/report/2019-refinement-to-the-2006-ipcc-guidelines-for-national-greenhouse-gas-inventories/
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FAR: First Assessment Report
SAR: Second Assessment Report
TAR: Third Assessment Report
AR4: Fourth Assessment Report
AR5: Fifth Assessment Report
AR6: Sixth Assessment Report
UNEP: United Nations Environment Programme
UNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change
WMO: World Meteorological Organization
MR: Methodology Report. 2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC
Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories
SR15: Global Warming of 1.5°C, an IPCC special report on the
impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and
related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of
strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change,
sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty
SRCCL: Climate Change and Land: An IPCC special report on
climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land
management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial
ecosystems
SROCC: Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing
ClimateFor more information please contact:
1988
IPCC – jointlyestablished by WMO and UNEP
1990
FAR
1995
SAR
2001
TAR
2007
AR4 AR5 AR6
2013-2014 2021-2022
SR15
UNFCCC GlobalStocktake
2018 2023
1970s-1980s
KyotoProtocol
UNFCCC Adaptation 2 °C limit Paris Agreement
2019
MR
SROCCSRCCL
Nobel Peace Prize
These dates are subject to change.
https://www.unenvironment.org/https://unfccc.int/https://unfccc.int/https://wmo.inthttps://www.ipcc.ch/report/2019-refinement-to-the-2006-ipcc-guidelines-for-national-greenhouse-gas-inventories/https://www.ipcc.ch/report/2019-refinement-to-the-2006-ipcc-guidelines-for-national-greenhouse-gas-inventories/https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/
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IPCC Secretariatc/o World Meteorological Organization7bis,
Avenue de la PaixC.P. 2300CH-1211 Geneva 2 SwitzerlandPhone: +41 22
730 8208/54/84Fax: +41 22 730 8025/13Email: [email protected]
www.ipcc.ch April 2020
How the IPCC prepares its reports
Scoping Approval of Outline Nomination of authors
Selection of authors
Governments and observerorganizations nominate
experts as authors
Approval & acceptanceof report
Expert Review -1st Order Draft
Government and ExpertReview - 2nd Order Draft
Final draft reportand SPM
Government reviewof final draft SPM
The outline is drafted and developed by experts nominated by
governments
and observer organizations
The Panel then approves the outline
The 2nd draft of the report and 1st draftof the Summary for
Policymakers (SPM)is reviewed by governments and experts
Authors prepare a1st draft which is
reviewed by experts
Bureaux select authors
Authors prepare final draftsof the report and SPM which
are sent to governments
Governments review thefinal draft SPM in preparation
for its approval
Working Group/Panelapproves SPMs and
accepts reports
Publication of report
Peer reviewed and internationally available scientific technical
and socio-economic literature, manuscripts made available for IPCC
review and selected non-peer reviewed literature produced by other
relevant institutions including industry © images:
www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2020/04/AC6copyright.pdf
Response of the North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Climatology to
Global Warming:Application of Dynamical Downscaling to CMIP5
Models
L EI Z HANG
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences,
University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado
K RISTOPHER B. K ARNAUSKAS
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences,
and Department of Atmospheric and OceanicSciences, University of
Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado
JEFFREY P. D ONNELLY
Department of Geology and Geophysics, Woods Hole Oceanographic
Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts
K ERRY E MANUEL
Program in Atmospheres, Oceans, and Climate, Department of
Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences,Massachusetts Institute
of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts
(Manuscript received 6 July 2016, in final form 21 September
2016)
ABSTRACT
A downscaling approach is applied to future projection
simulations from four CMIP5 global climatemodelsto investigate the
response of the tropical cyclone (TC) climatology over the North
Pacific basin to globalwarming. Under the influence of the
anthropogenic rise in greenhouse gases, TC-track density, power
dis-sipation, and TC genesis exhibit robust increasing trends over
the North Pacific, especially over the centralsubtropical Pacific
region. The increase in North Pacific TCs is primarilymanifested as
increases in the intenseand relatively weak TCs. Examination of
storm duration also reveals that TCs over the North Pacific
havelonger lifetimes under global warming.Through a genesis
potential index, the mechanistic contributions of various physical
climate factors to the
simulated change in TC genesis are explored. More frequent TC
genesis under global warming is mostlyattributable to the smaller
vertical wind shear and greater potential intensity (primarily due
to higher seasurface temperature). In contrast, the e�ect of the
saturation deficit of the free troposphere tends to suppressTC
genesis, and the change in large-scale vorticity plays a negligible
role.
1. Introduction
The North Pacific is an important region of relativelyfrequent
tropical cyclones (TCs) ( ; 40 TCs per year).The extreme rainfall
and strong winds associated withTCs may influence shipping in the
open ocean and causenotable damage to coastal areas if TCs make
landfall.
Given the possible catastrophic impact of TCs on man-kind, the
response of TC activity over the North Pacificbasin to
anthropogenic global warming is naturally ofgreat societal interest
and has been intensively analyzedin numerous studies ( Zhao and
Held 2012 ; Emanuel2013; Murakami et al. 2013 ; Knutson et al. 2015
; Kossinet al. 2016).There are several approaches to investigating
the re-
lationship between climate change and TCs. One rela-tively
straightforward approach is to analyze the futureprojections of TC
statistics as explicitly resolved withinthe global model
simulations. The current generation ofclimate models has indeed
been suggested to be capableof simulating TCs ( Zhao and Held 2010
; Murakami et al.
Corresponding author e-mail : Lei Zhang,
[email protected]
Denotes content that is immediately available upon publica-tion
as open access.
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0496.1
2017 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding
reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult
the AMS CopyrightPolicy (http://www.ametsoc.org/PUBSCopyrightPolicy
).
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