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1
Climate change, food and biodiversity
after the fifth assessment report of IPCC
Jean-François SoussanaLA AR5, WGII, IPCC
INRA, Paris
Coriolis Conference
Feb. 11, 2015
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
The IPCC Fifth Assesment Report
➜ Three Working Group Reports of the 5 th
Assessment, 2013-2014
• WG I : The Physical Science Basis
• WGII: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
• WG III: Mitigation of Climate Change
• Synthesis report
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Humans are changing the climate
YearGlobally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperatures
It is extremely likely that we are the dominant cau se of warming since the mid-20th century
AR5 WGI SPM
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
AR5 SYR SPM
Global Warming Potential on a 100 yrs time horizon(relative to CO2 on a molecular weight basis):
CO2: 1CH4: 25N2O: 298
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IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
GHG emissions growth between 2000 and 2010 has been larger than in the previous three decades
AR5 WGIII SPM
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Sources of emissions
Energy production remains the primary driver of GHG emissionsAgriculture, forestry and land use (AFOLU) is the s econd sector
35%24% 21% 14%
6.4%
2010 GHG emissions
Energy Sector
Agriculture, forests and
other land uses
Industry TransportBuilding Sector
AR5 WGIII SPM
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Antropogenic forcings are extremely likely the cause of warming
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Potential Impacts of Climate Change
Food and water shortages
Increased poverty
Increased displacement of people
Coastal flooding
AR5 WGII SPM
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IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
The Choices We Make Will Create Different Outcomes
With substantial mitigation
Without additionalmitigation
Change in average surface temperature (1986–2005 to 2081–2100)AR5 WGI SPM
A CHANGING WORLD
WIDESPREADOBSERVED IMPACTS
Widespread forest decline caused by climate change
Observed impacts on crop yields
(% per decade)
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Climate impacts on world food prices
Food prices & social unrest (Lagi et al., 2011)
TSBF, 2007
State of Food Insecurity in the World
2012
FAO, WFP, IFAD
870 million people suffered from chronic
undernourishment between 2010-12
Global hunger index
Food security issues
Prevalence of obesity
1300 million obese people worldwide
(WHO, 2012)
Year Region Meteorological Characteristics
Agriculture, Fisheries, Forestry, Bioenergy
2003 Western and Central Europe
Hottest summer in at least 500 years
Crop harvest losses of 20-30%; Mega-fires;
Health damage (35,000 death)
2004/ 2005 Iberian Peninsula -Portugal
Hydrological drought Grain harvest losses of 40%
2007Southern Europe
Hottest summer on record in Greece since 1891
Mega-fires.
Approx. 575,500 hectares burnt area
2007England and Wales May–July wettest since records
began in 1766.
78 farms flooded. Impacts on agriculture £50 million
2010 Western Russia Hottest summer since 1500 Reduction in crop yields.Export ban.
Mega-Fires: Fire damage to forests; health damage.
2011 France Hottest and driest spring in France since 1880
8% decline in wheat yield
A decade of climate extremes in continental Europe
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WITH CONTINUED HIGH EMISSIONS
INCREASE
RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
SOCIOECONOMICPROCESSES
SocioeconomicPathways
Adaptation and Mitigation Actions
Governance
CLIMATE
NaturalVariability
AnthropogenicClimate Change
RISKHazards
Exposure
Vulnerability
IMPACTS
EMISSIONS
and Land-use Change
A contrasted future depending
on global GHG emissions
Species migration vs. climate change velocity
(IPCC, 2014)
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Corals would be the first biome to disapear(IPCC, 2014)
Major impacts on crop yieldsby the end of the century
Dans un scénario à +4°C, sans adaptation, des risques sérieux pour la sécurité alimentaire mondiale
% change in net irrigation requirements of 11 major crops (1971–2000 to 2070–2099)
Areas currently equipped for irrigation, assuming current management practices.
Increased frequency of heat waves in Europe
by the end of the century
Number of summer heat waves (>5 days) 2071-2100 compare d to 1971-2000 .Heat waves are defined as periods of more than 5 consecutive days with daily maximum temperature exceeding the mean
maximum temperature of the May to September season of the control period (1971-2000) by at least 5°C.
2071-2100 compared to 1971-2000 .Mean of 8 and 9 regional climate models, Eurocordex///// Significant (P<0.05) \\\\\ Robust (>2 models out of 3)
(Jacob et al., 2013; Eurocordex)
. .
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Increased frequency of heavy precipitation in Europe
by the end of the century
Heavy precipitation change (%) in heavy precipitation defined as the 95th percentile of daily
precipitation (only days with precipitation > 1mm/day are considered)
2071-2100 compared to 1971-2000 for winter (DJF) .Mean of 8 and 9 regional climate models, Eurocordex///// Significant (P<0.05) \\\\\ Robust (>2 models out of 3)
RCP4.5 RCP8.5
(Jacob et al., 2013; Eurocordex)
Increased frequency of droughtsby the end of the century
Annual duration of droughtsProjected changes in the 95th percentile of the length of dry spells for the period 2071-2100 compared
to 1971-2000 (in days). Dry spells are defined as periods of at least 5 consecutive days with daily
precipitation below 1mm.
2071-2100 compared to 1971-2000 .Mean of 8 and 9 regional climate models, Eurocordex///// Significant (P<0.05) \\\\\ Robust (>2 models out of 3)
RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5
(Jacob et al., 2013; Eurocordex)
RCP4.5 RCP8.5
Climate change impacts on ecosystem
services by the 2050’s without adaptation
Alpine
Impact-1 0 1
Num
ber
of s
tudi
es
0
5
10
15
20
25
Atlantic
Impact
-1 0 1
Nu
mbe
r o
f stu
die
s
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Continental
Impact
-1 0 1
Num
ber
of
stud
ies
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Northern
Impact
-1 0 1
Nu
mb
er o
f st
udi
es
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Southern
Impact
-1 0 1
Num
ber
of s
tud
ies
0
5
10
15
20
25
Provisioning
Regulating
Cultural
Ecosystem services
Projectedclimate change
impacts on wheat yields in Europe by 2030
(JRC, 2012)
ECHAM5
HADCM3
Without adaptation With adaptation
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Increased forest fires
(IPCC, 2014)
Key risks for Europe
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Limiting Temperature Increase to 2˚C
A combination of adaptation and substantial, sustained reductions in
greenhouse gas emissions can limit climate change risks
Implementing reductions in greenhouse gas emissions poses
substantial technological, economic, social, and institutional
challenges
But delaying mitigation will substantially increase the
challenges associated with limiting warming to 2°C
AR5 WGI SPM, AR5 WGII SPM,AR5 WGIII SPM
Measures exist to achieve the substantial emissions reductions required
to limit likely warming to 2°C (40-70% reduction in GHGs globally by
2050 and near zero GHGs in 2100)
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Mitigation Measures
More efficient use of energy
Greater use of low-carbon and no-carbon energy• Many of these technologies exist today
Improved carbon sinks
• Reduced deforestation and improved forest management
and planting of new forests
• Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage
Lifestyle and behavioural changesAR5 WGIII SPM
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IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Ambitious Mitigation Is Affordable
➜ Economic growth reduced by ~ 0.06%
(BAU growth 1.6 - 3%)
➜ This translates into delayed and not forgone growth
➜ Estimated cost does not account for the benefits of
reduced climate change
➜ Unmitigated climate change would create
increasing risks to economic growth
AR5 WGI SPM, AR5 WGII SPM
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
The window for action is rapidly closing
65% of our carbon budget compatible with a 2°°°°C goal already used
Amount Used1870-2011:
1900GtCO2
Amount Remaining:
1000GtCO2
Total Carbon Budget:
2900GtCO2
AR5 WGI SPM
The agriculture, forestry and land use sectorTowards a biobased economy
(Billions tons of dry-matter) (IPCC, 2014)
Greenhouse gas fluxes in agriculture and forestry
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Soils contain three times
more carbon than the atmosphere
(UNEP, FAO, JRC 2010)
Agricultural emissions are increasing, but net forestry CO2 emissions have
fallen recently
• AFOLU accounts for 24% of
total anthropogenic GHG
emissions
• AFOLU is the only sector where
net emissions fell in the most
recent decade
• Whilst agricultural non-CO2
GHG emissions increased, net
CO2 emissions fell, mainly due
to decreasing deforestation,
and increased afforestation
rates
IPCC WGIII AR5
Emissions intensity of AFOLU products is falling as agriculture and forestry
become more efficient
• Note that ruminant meat has a GHG intensity much higher than other
agricultural products
• But also note that these are direct emissions only. If we include the emissions
from the human-edible feed for mono-gastric animal products, they move
closer to ruminant meatIPCC WGIII AR5
What is the potential of the mitigation options for reducing GHG
emissions in the AFOLU Sector?
• Global economic mitigation potentials in agriculture in 2050 are estimated to be
0.5─10.6 GtCO2eq/yr. (current global emissions reach 49 GtCO2eq/yr)
• Reducing food losses & waste: GHG emission savings of 0.6─6.0 GtCO2eq/yr.
• Changes in diet: GHG emission savings of 0.7─7.3 GtCO2eq/yr.
• Forestry miMgaMon opMons are esMmated to contribute 0.2─13.8 GtCO2/yr.
IPCC WGIII AR5
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AFOLU mitigation options:
SUPPLY SIDE
Livestock mgmt. Cropland mgmt. Int. systems Forestry
… and bioenergy
DEMAND SIDE
Dietary changeImprovement in the food chainUse of wood products
Bioenergy: Global Technical Bioenergy Potential for 2050
AFOLU and sustainable development
Biodiversity
Food and water security Livelihoods and equity
Income
Ecosystem services
AR5 AFOLU Summary Findings:
• 20-24% of anthropogenic GHG emissions come from the AFOLU sector (ca. 9 –
12 GtCO2e/yr); crop and livestock agriculture is now the dominant source of
AFOLU emissions
• A combination of supply-side and demand side options can reduce up to 80%
the emissions from the sector by 2030.
• Assessment of overall potential, including bioenergy, needs to include analysis
of trade-offs and feedbacks with land-use competition
• Many positive linkages with sustainable development and with adaptation
exist, but are case- and site specific as they depend on scale, scope, and pace of
implementation.
• Good governance is central for reducing mitigation barriers in this sector and
ensure multiple co-benefits for rural development and food security are
achieved
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Socio-economic drivers: SSPs
(IPCC, WGIII, 2014)
General- rapid development of Low Income Countries (LIC)
- reduction of inequality among and within economies
- low population growth
- reducing resource intensity
- reducing fossil fuel dependency
- increased planned urbanization in LIC and MIC
- opened globalized economy
- countries cooperate to achieve development
and environmental goals
- rapid technological change and technology transfer
- standards of living converge
Agriculture- high land productivity
- rapid tech change – yield increasing technologies
- rel. low level of animal products consumption
SSP1: Sustainability
(IPCC, WGIII, 2014)
SSP2: Middle of the Road – “Current Trends Continue”
General- medium economic growth overall
- slow convergence between LIC and HIC
- inequality remains high
- population growth moderate – high in some LICs
- reducing resource intensity (slower than SSP1)
- reducing fossil fuel dependency (slower than SSP1)
- uneven planned urbanization in LIC
- world economy fragmented – reduced flows of trade and
technologies
- rapid technological change in HIC but not shared with LIC
Agriculture- trade barriers in agricultural markets remain
(IPCC, WGIII, 2014)
SSP3: Fragmentation
General- slow development with high inequalities
- pockets of extreme poverty
- high population growth
- unplanned settlements growing in LIC
- low investments in R&D
- slow technological change
- little progress in reducing resource intensity
- weak governance and institutions
- de-globalization – reduced intl trade flows
- little international cooperation
Agriculture
(IPCC, WGIII, 2014)
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World population
(IPCC, WGIII, 2014)
SustainabilityMiddle of the roadFragmentationInequalityConventional development
World GDP per capita
(IPCC, WGIII, 2014)
SustainabilityMiddle of the roadFragmentationInequalityConventional development
Crop yield development
Crop yield developments projected as a function of GDP per capita.
(Havlik et al., in prep.)
Sustainability
Middle of the road
Fragmentation
Inequality
Conventional dev.
[kg
pro
tein
pro
du
ct /
kg
pro
tein
fe
ed
]
Feed conversion efficiencies
+ additional assumptions on the speed of switches between livestock production systems
(Havlik et al., in prep.)
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Human diet preferences [kcal/cap/day]
(Havlik et al., in prep.)
SSP1. Sustainability
SSP2. Middle of the road
SSP3. Fragmentation
54
Animal calorie consumption in 2050 [kcal/cap/day]
(Havlik et al., in prep.)
SSP1. Sustainability
SSP2. Middle of the road
SSP3. Fragmentation
55
Agricultural losses and food wastes
(Havlik et al., in prep.)
SSP1. Sustainability
SSP2. Middle of the road
SSP3. Fragmentation
56
Net forest area change 2000-2050 [Mio Ha]
(Havlik et al., in prep.)
SSP1. Sustainability
SSP2. Middle of the road
SSP3. Fragmentation
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Additional irrigation water consumption compared to 2000 [%]
(Havlik et al., in prep.)
SSP1. Sustainability
SSP2. Middle of the road
SSP3. Fragmentation
.058
Two international science conferences in 2015,ahead of COP21 in Paris.
—Third Global Science Conference on « Climate-Smart Agriculture »,
Montpellier, March 16-18, 2015
• http://csa2015.cirad.fr
— « Our common future under Climate Change »,
Paris, UNESCO, July 07-10, 2015
• www.commonfuture-paris2015.org
Thank you for your attention!