The Iran Nuclear CrisisThe Iran Nuclear Crisis

Herzliya ConferenceHerzliya Conference

Scott D. SaganScott D. SaganFebruary 4, 2009February 4, 2009

Proliferation Fatalism: The belief that coercive diplomacy can not stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons.

Deterrence Optimism: The belief that a nuclear Iran can be easily deterred through threats of nuclear retaliation.

(Mis)Reading the 2007 NIE(Mis)Reading the 2007 NIE

• Iran “halted” its nuclear weapons program in 2003

• Iran’s weapons program was a violation of its NPT obligations

• Covert enrichment program exists outside of Natanz

Dangers of a Nuclear IranDangers of a Nuclear Iran

• Cold War analogy flawed

• Pakistan analogy better– Shield for aggressive

action– Ambiguous “control”– Dangerous custodians– Anonymous attack

• Further proliferation

Moving Forward?Moving Forward?

• Stronger Carrots – Regime Coexistence– LWR Assistance– Grand Bargain

• Stronger Sticks– Sanctions on Refined

Petroleum– Financial Sanctions

• Military Options